Good Economics for Hard Times

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Good Economics for Hard Times Page 44

by Abhijit V. Banerjee


  67 Alberto Cavallo, “More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors,” NBER Working Paper 25138, 2018.

  68 Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon, “Ownership, Concentration, and Investment,” AEA Papers and Proceedings 108 (2018): 432–37, https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20181010; Thomas Philippon, The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2019).

  69 Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman, “World Inequality Report 2018: Executive Summary,” World Inequality Lab, 2018.

  70 Mats Elzén and Per Ferström, “The Ignorance Survey: United States,” Gapminder, 2013, https://static.gapminder.org/GapminderMedia/wp-up loads/Results-from-the-Ignorance-Survey-in-the-US..pdf.

  71 “Poverty,” World Bank, 2019, accessed April 14, 2019, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview#1.

  72 “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015: Fact Sheet,” United Nations, 2015.

  73 “Child Health,” USAID.com, February 17, 2018, accessed April 14, 2019, https://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/global-health/maternal-and-child-health/technical-areas/child-health.

  74 “The Millennium Development Goals Report 2015: Fact Sheet,” United Nations, 2015.

  75 “Literacy Rate, Adult Total (% of People Ages 15 and Above),” World Bank Open Data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/se.adt.litr.zs.

  76 “Number of Deaths Due to HIV/AIDS,” World Health Organization, accessed April 14, 2019, https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/epidemic_status/deaths_text/en/.

  77 Paul Romer “Economic Growth,” in Library of Economics and Liberty: Economic Systems, accessed June 13, 2019, https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/EconomicGrowth.html.

  78 William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 2001).

  79 Ross Levine and David Renelt, “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,” American Economic Review 82, no. 4 (September 1992): 942–63.

  80 Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson, “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation, “American Economic Review 91, no. 5 (2001): 1369–1401, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369; Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, no. 4 (November 2002): 1231–94, https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302320935025/.

  81 Dani Rodrik, Arvind Subramanian, and Francesco Trebbi, “Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Growth 9, no. 2 (2004): 131–65, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85.

  82 “Global 500 2014,” Fortune, 2014, accessed June 13, 2019, http://fortune.com/global500/2014/.

  83 William Easterly, “Trust the Development Experts—All 7 Billion,” Brookings Institution, 2008, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/trust-the-development-experts-all-7-billion/.

  84 “The Impact of the Internet in Africa: Establishing Conditions for Success and Catalyzing Inclusive Growth in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal,” Dalberg, 2013.

  85 World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends,” World Bank, 2016, http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2016.

  86 Kenneth Lee, Edward Miguel, and Catherine Wolfram, “Experimental Evidence on the Economics of Rural Electrification,” working paper, 2018.

  87 Julian Cristia, Pablo Ibarrarán, Santiago Cueta, Ana Santiago, and Eugenio Severín, “Technology and Child Development: Evidence from the One Laptop per Child Program,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 9, no. 3 (2017): 295–320, https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20150385.

  88 Rema Hanna, Esther Duflo, and Michael Greenstone, “Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 8, no. 1 (2016): 80–114, https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20140008.

  89 James Berry, Greg Fischer, and Raymond P. Guiteras, “Eliciting and Utilizing Willingness-to-Pay: Evidence from Field Trials in Northern Ghana,” CEnREP Working Paper 18-016, May 2018.

  90 Rachel Peletz, Alicea Cock-Esteb, Dorothea Ysenburg, Salim Haji, Ranjiv Khush, and Pascaline Dupas, “Supply and Demand for Improved Sanitation: Results from Randomized Pricing Experiments in Rural Tanzania,” Environmental Science and Technology 51, no. 12 (2017): 7138–47, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b03846.

  91 91.“India: The Growth Imperative,” report, McKinsey Global Institute, 2001.

  92 Robert Jensen, “The Digital Provide: Information (Technology), Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, no. 3 (August 2007): 879–924. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.3.879.

  93 Robert Jensen and Nolan H. Miller, “Market Integration, Demand, and the Growth of Firms: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in India, “American Economic Review 108 no. 12 (2018): 3583–625, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161965.

  94 See, for example, the prospectus of one firm in Tirupur: “Prospectus,” Vijayeswari Textiles Limited, February 25, 2007, http://www.idbicapital.com/pdf/IDBICapital-VijayeswariTextilesLtdRedHerringProspectus.pdf.accessed June 13, 2019.

  95 Abhijit Banerjee and Kaivan Munshi, “How Efficiently Is Capital Allocated? Evidence from the Knitted Garment Industry in Tirupur,” Review of Economic Studies 71, no. 1 (2004): 19–42, https://doi.org/10.1111/0034-6527.00274.

  96 Nicholas Bloom and John Van Reenen, “Measuring and Explaining Management Practices Across Firms and Countries,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, no. 4 (2007): 1351–1408.

  97 Chris Udry, “Gender, Agricultural Production, and the Theory of the Household,” Journal of Political Economy 104, no. 5 (1996): 1010–46.

  98 Francisco Pérez-González, “Inherited Control and Firm Performance,” American Economic Review 96, no. 5 (2006): 1559–88.

  99 Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter J. Klenow, “Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,”Quarterly Journal of Economics 124, no. 4 (2009): 1403–48, https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.4.1403.

  100 Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow, “The Life Cycle of Plants in India and Mexico,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no. 3 (2014): 1035–84, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju014.

  101 Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow, “Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India,”Quarterly Journal of Economics 124, no. 4 (2009): 1403–48, https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.4.1403.

  102 Qi Liang,, Pisun Xu, Pornsit Jiraporn, “Board Characteristics and Chinese Bank Performance,” Journal of Banking and Finance 37, no. 8 (2013): 2953–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.04.018.

  103 “Bank Lending Rates,” Trading Economics, accessed April 15, 2019, https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/bank-lending-rate.

  104 “Interest Rates,” Trading Economics, accessed April 15, 2019, https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate.

  105 Gilles Duranton, Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover Goswami, and William Kerr, “The Misallocation of Land and Other Factors of Production in India,” World Bank Group Policy Research Working Paper 7547, (2016), https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7221.

  106 Nicholas Bloom, Benn Eifert, Aprajit Mahajan, David McKenzie, and John Roberts, “Does Management Matter? Evidence from India,”Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, no. 1 (2013), https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjs044.

  107 Jaideep Prabhu, Navi Radjou, and Simone Ahuja, Jugaad Innovation: Think Frugal, Be Flexible, Generate Breakthrough Growth (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2012).

  108 Emily Breza, Supreet Kaur, and Nandita Krishnaswamy, “Scabs: The Social Suppression of Labor Supply,” NBER Working Paper 25880 (2019), https://doi.org/10.3386/w25880.

  109 Authors’ calculation from the National Sample Survey, 66h round, 2009–2010, accessed June 19, http://www.icssrdataservice.in/datarepository/index.php/catalog/89/overview.

  110 Abhijit Banerjee and Gaurav Chiplunkar, “How
Important Are Matching Frictions in the Labor Market? Experimental and Non-Experimental Evidence from a Large Indian Firm,” working paper, 2018, accessed June 19, 2019, https://gauravchiplunkar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/matchingfrictions_banerjeechiplunkar_aug18.pdf.

  111 Esther Duflo, Pascaline Dupas, and Michael Kremer, “The impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana,” MIMEO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, accessed April 18, 2019, https://economics.mit.edu/files/16094.

  112 “Unemployment, Youth Total (% of total labor force ages 15–24) (national estimate),” World Bank Open Data, accessed April 15, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.NE.ZS.

  113 Abhijit Banerjee and Gaurav Chiplunkar, “How Important Are Matching Frictions in the Labor Market? Experimental and Non-Experimental Evidence from a Large Indian Firm,” working paper, 2018.

  114 “Labour Market Employment, Employment in Public Sector, Employment in Private Sector Different Categories-wise,” Data.gov.in, accessed April 15, 2019, https://data.gov.in/resources/labour-market-employ ment-employment-public-sector-employment-private-sector-different.

  115 Sonalde Desai and Veena Kulkarni, “Changing Educational Inequalities in India in the Context of Affirmative Action,” Demography 45, no. 2 (2008): 245–70.

  116 Abhijit Banerjee and Sandra Sequeira, “Spatial Mismatches and Beliefs about the Job Search: Evidence from South Africa,” MIMEO, MIT, 2019.

  117 Neha Dasgupta, “More Than 25 Million People Apply for Indian Railway Vacancies,” Reuters, March 29, 2018, accessed June 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-unemployment-railways/more-than-25-million-people-apply-for-indian-railway-vacancies-idUSKBN1 H524C.

  118 Frederico Finan, Benjamin A. Olken, and Rohini Pande, “The Personnel Economics of the States,” in Handbook of Field Experiments, vol. 2, eds. Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo (Amsterdam: North Holland, 2017).

  119 Ezra Vogel, Japan as Number One (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1979), 153–54, 204–205, 159, 166.

  120 Ernest Liu, “Industrial Policies in Production Networks,” working paper, 2019.

  121 Albert Bollard, Peter J. Klenow, and Gunjan Sharma, “India’s Mysterious Manufacturing Miracle,” Review of Economic Dynamics 16, no. 1 (2013): 59–85.

  122 Pierre-Richard Agénor and Otaviano Canuto, “Middle-Income Growth Traps,” Research in Economics 69, no. 4 (2015): 641–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2015.04.003.

  123 “Guidance Note for Surveillance under Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, 2015.

  124 In fact, the under-five child mortality in 2017 was only 8.8 deaths per 1,000 live births, much lower than in Guatemala (27.6), but also quite similar to that in the United States (6.6). “Mortality Rate, under-5 (per 1,000 Live Births),” World Bank Data, accessed April 15, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT?end=2017&locations=GT-LK-US&start=2009. “Maternal Mortality Rate (National Estimate per 100,000 Live Births).” World Bank Data, accessed April 15, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.MMRT.NE?end=2017&locations=GT-LK-US&start =2009. “Mortality Rate, Infant (per 1,000 Live Births),” World Bank Data, accessed April 15, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?end=2017&locations=GT-LK-US&start=2009.

  125 “Mortality Rate, under-5 (per 1,000 Live Births),” World Bank Data, accessed April 16, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT?end=2017&locations=GT-LK-US&start=2009.

  126 Taz Hussein, Matt Plummer, and Bill Breen (for the Stanford Social Innovation Review), “How Field Catalysts Galvanise Social Change,” SocialInnovationExchange.org., 2018, https://socialinnovationexchange.org/insights/how-field-catalysts-galvanise-social-change.

  127 Christian Lengeler, “Insecticide-Treated Bed Nets and Curtains for Preventing Malaria,” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2, no. 2 (2004), https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD000363.pub2.

  128 Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, Poor Economics (New York: PublicAffairs, 2011).

  129 Jessica Cohen and Pascaline Dupas, “Free Distribution or Cost-Sharing? Evidence from a Randomized Malaria Prevention Experiment,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 125, no. 1 (2010): 1–45.

  130 “World Malaria Report 2017,” World Health Organization, 2017.

  131 S. Bhatt, D. J. Weiss, E. Cameron, D. Bisanzio, B. Mappin, U. Dalrymple, K. Battle, C. L. Moyes, A. Henry, P. A. Eckhoff, E. A. Wenger, O. Briët, M. A. Penny, T. A. Smith, A. Bennett, J. Yukich, T. P. Eisele, J. T. Griffin, C. A. Fergus, M. Lynch, F. Lindgren, J. M. Cohen, C. L. J. Murray, D. L. Smith, S. I. Hay, R. E. Cibulskis, and P. W. Gething, “The Effect on Malaria Control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015,” Nature 526 (2015): 207–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15535.

  132 William Easterly, “Looks like @JeffDSachs got it more right than I did on effectiveness of mass bed net distribution to fight malaria in Africa,” tweet, August 18, 2017, 11:04 a.m.

  CHAPTER 6. IN HOT WATER

  1 “Global Warming of 1.5°C,” IPCC Special Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008, accessed June 16, 2019, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.

  2 As the October 2018 report of the IPCC states, “Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.”

  3 CO2 equivalent emissions refer to the emissions of greenhouse gas (CO2, methane, etc.) expressed in a common unit by converting amounts of other gases to the equivalent amount of CO2 with the same effect on global warming. For example, 1 million metric tonnes of methane represents 25 million metric CO2e.

  4 Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty, “Carbon and Inequality: from Kyoto to Paris,” report, Paris School of Economics, 2015, accessed June 16, 2019, http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/ChancelPiketty2015.pdf.

  5 Robin Burgess, Olivier Deschenes, Dave Donaldson, and Michael Greenstone, “Weather, Climate Change and Death in India,” LSE working paper, 2017, accessed June 19, 2018, http://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/Assets/Documents/personal-pages/robin-burgess/weather-climate-change-and-death.pdf.

  6 Orley C. Ashenfelter and Karl Storchmann, “Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices,” Review of Industrial Organization 37, no. 1 (2010): 51–64.

  7 Joshua Graff Zivin and Matthew Neidell, “Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change,” Journal of Labor Economics 32, no. 1 (2014): 1–26.

  8 Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz, Jisung Park, and Jonathan Smith, “Heat and Learning,” NBER Working Paper 24639, 2018.

  9 Achyuta Adhvaryu, Namrata Kala, and Anant Nyshadham, “The Light and the Heat: Productivity Co-benefits of Energy-saving Technology,” NBER Working Paper 24314, 2018.

  10 Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken, “What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature,” Journal of Economic Literature 52, no. 3 (2014): 740–98.

  11 Olivier Deschenes and Michael Greenstone, “Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 no. 4 (2011): 152–85.

  12 Robin Burgess, Olivier Deschenes, Dave Donaldson and Michael Greenstone, “Weather, Climate Change and Death in India,” LSE working paper, 2017 accessed June 16, 2019, http://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/Assets/Documents/personal-pages/robin-burgess/weather-climate-change-and-death.pdf.

  13 Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken, “What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature,” Journal of Economic Literature 52, no. 3 (2014): 740—98.

  14 Nihar Shah, Max Wei, Virginie Letschert, and Amol Phadke, “Benefits of Leapfrogging to Superefficiency and Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioning,” U.S. Department of Energy: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat
ory Technical Report, 2015, accessed June 16 2019, https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/benefits-leap frogging-superefficiency.

  15 Maximilian Auffhammer and Catherine Wolfram, “Powering Up China: Income Distributions and Residential Electricity Consumption,” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 104, no. 5 (2014): 575–80.

  16 Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

  17 Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, Leonardo Bursztyn, and David Hemous, “The Environment and Directed Technical Change,” American Economic Review 102, no. 1 (2012): 131–66.

  18 Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Linn, “Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 119, no. 3 (2004): 1049–90.

  19 Hannah Choi Granade et al., “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy,” executive summary,” McKinsey & Company, 2009, accessed June 16, 2019, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/epng/pdfs/unlocking%20energy%20efficiency/us_energy_efficiency_exc_summary.ashx.

  20 “Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map,” technical report, International Energy Agency, 2013. Accessed June 16, 2019, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO_Special_Report_2013_Redrawing_the_Energy_Climate_Map.pdf.

  21 Meredith Fowlie, Michael Greenstone, and Catherine Wolfram, “Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 133, no. 3 (2018): 1597–1644.

  22 Nicholas Ryan, “Energy Productivity and Energy Demand: Experimental Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Plants,” NBER Working Paper 24619, 2018.

  23 Meredith Fowlie, Catherine Wolfram, C. Anna Spurlock, Annika Todd, Patrick Baylis, and Peter Cappers, “Default Effects and Follow-on Behavior: Evidence from an Electricity Pricing Program,” NBER Working Paper 23553, 2017.

  24 Hunt Allcott and Todd Rogers, “The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Behavioral Interventions: Experimental Evidence from Energy Conservation,” American Economic Review 104, no. 10 (2014): 3003–37.

 

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