Chapter 20
1. During the 1990s, there have been more incidents of dramatic price increases with coffee futures than with orange juice futures. In 1994, two freezes in Brazil severely damaged the coffee crop. In 1997, the memory of 1994, some threatening weather, and dock strikes in South American ports combined to induce another surge in coffee prices. The “cheap coffee analogy” is about similarity bias—the similarity between coffee and orange juice based, for example, on the fact that both are crops grown in Brazil. Note that in the mid-1980s, when Roll wrote his article, orange juice prices were much more volatile than coffee prices. Telephone interview, 26 June 1998.
2. Until 1995, the National Weather Service issued specialized agricultural forecasts, notably a “fruit and frost forecast,” a special bulletin that was issued to signal the threat of a frost. This service was cut from the U.S. budget in 1995, and is now provided by private forecasting firms.
3. Dow Jones News Service, 5 December 1997. (Weather service no longer available.)
4. Daniel Rosenberg and Robin K. Taylor, “CBOT Soybeans Fall to 1-Mo Low.”
5. These were accessed through Dow Jones News Service, using the / /WIRES N/CMD command in terminal mode.
6. Stephen Cox, “NYCE Orange Juice Settles Higher: Trade Enters Buying,” Dow Jones Commodities Service, 28 January 1998.
7. Margarita Palatnik, “Orange-Juice Prices Get Squeezed Lower on Unexpectedly Bearish U.S. Report,” Wall Street Journal, 11 February 1999.
8. Ibid. Scoville is identified as an analyst with Chicago-based Price Group Futures, Inc.
9. Telephone interview, 26 June 1998.
Chapter 21
1. Bob Davis, Jonathan Friedland, and Matt Moffett, “Epidemic: As Currency Crisis Spreads, Need of a Cure Grows More Pressing,” Wall Street Journal, 24 August 1998.
2. David Wessel, Darren McDermott, and Greg Ip, “Money Trail: Speculators Didn’t Sink Indonesian Currency; Local Borrowing Did,” Wall Street Journal, 30 December 1997.
3. Ibid.
4. I thank Kim Rupert and Louis Radovich of MMS for graciously providing me with data on investor forecasts of currency rates.
Chapter 22
1. This occurred on the August 18, 1998, program Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. The speaker was Frank Cappiello.
2. Bob Davis, Jonathan Friedland, and Matt Moffett, “Epidemic: As Currency Crisis Spreads,” Wall Street Journal, 24 August 1998.
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