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NOTES
Chapter 1: The Levelling
1. Christian Hacke, “Eine Nuklearmacht Deutschland stärkt die Sicherheit des Westens” [A nuclear Germany strengthens the security of the West], Die Welt, July 29, 2018, https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus180136274/Eine-Nuklearmacht-Deutschland-staerkt-die-Sicherheit-des-Westens.html.
2. Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, If Crisis or War Comes, May 21, 2018, https://www.msb.se/Forebyggande/Krisberedskap/MSBs-krisberedskapsvecka/Fakta-om-broschyren-Om-krisen-eller-kriget-kommer-/.
3. Taylor Downing’s book 1983: The World at the Brink tells of Russi
a’s near-misreading of the intent behind a NATO war game, a misunderstanding that could have triggered war.
4. The film Amazing China gives a sense of this and of what is ahead. CCTV Video News Agency, Amazing China, October 22, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYjozY41OnM. More formally, the Chinese president laid out his vision of the Chinese Dream in a speech when visiting the National Museum of China in November 2012, having taken the office of general secretary. “Full Text: China’s New Party Chief XI Jinping’s Speech,” BBC News, broadcast November 15, 2012, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-20338586.
5. Marie Ng, Tom Fleming, Margaret Robinson, et al., “Global, Regional, and National Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children and Adults during 1980–2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013,” Lancet, August 30, 2014.
6. Diamond, “Facing Up to the Democratic Recession.”
7. R. Miller and M. O’Sullivan, What Did We Do Right? (Blackhall, 2011), 7.
8. The World University Rankings, Times Higher Education, October 17, 2018. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/.
Chapter 2: The Tide Goes Out
1. A. Guterres, “An Alert for the World,” 2018 New Year Video Message, http://webtv.un.org/watch/sg-new-year-vm-en/5693250482001.
2. R. Foroohar, “The Dangers of Digital Democracy,” Financial Times, January 28, 2018.
3. Victor Lukerson, “Fear, Misinformation, and Social Media Complicate Ebola Fight,” Time, October 8, 2015, http://time.com/3479254/ebola-social-media.
4. World Bank regionally aggregated poverty data, PovcalNet, http:// iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/povDuplicateWB.aspx.
5. In general, definitions of, objections to, and perspectives on globalization span many fields. Often it is not easy to identify whether specific problems arise as a result of globalization or whether globalization simply exacerbates them. Measuring globalization and, in particular, the causality of its effects is difficult, though perhaps the least problematic aspect of analyzing globalization is measuring its economic effects. Measures that economists often examine are the relation between a country’s savings and its investment activities, its current account (part of a country’s balance of payments; it measures the flow of trade and income into a country) relative to its output, and levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). A number of other more idiosyncratic measures can be examined as well, such as the change in the number of foreign firms located in a country, differences between domestic and national products and between the research-and-development activities of foreign and indigenous corporations. Measures of migration are useful too, though the flow of labor was more widespread during the first wave of globalization than it is now.
6. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), “G20 International Merchandise Trade Statistics,” news release, August 29, 2018, http://www.oecd.org/sdd/its/OECD-G20-Trade-Q22018.pdf.
7. P. Conconi, G. Facchini, and M. Zanardi, “Policy Makers Horizon and Trade Votes,” CEPR Discussion Paper DP 8561, September 2011.
8. S. J. Evenett and J. Fritz, “Global Trade Plateaus,” Nineteenth Global Trade Alert Report, July 13, 2016, Global Trade Alert, https://www.globaltradealert.org/reports/15.
9. Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Majlesi, “Importing Political Polarization?”
10. Che, Lu, Pierce, and Schott, “Does Trade Liberalization with China Affect US Elections?”
11. Lang and Mendes, “The Distribution of Gains from Globalization.”
12. R. Dobbs, A. Madgavkar, J. Manyika et al., “Poorer Than Their Parents?”
13. Jeff Desjardins and Visual Capitalist, “This Is What Countries around the World Think about Globalization,” World Economic Forum, November 13, 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/what-your-country-thinks-of-globalization.
14. Pew Research Center, Global Indicators Database, http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/5/.
15. Another interesting viewpoint appears in Walter Schneider’s book The Great Leveller, which points out that often a crisis or regime change is required to alter the sociopolitical landscape.
16. A paper by Thomas Piketty and his colleagues shows that inequality in China may be higher than thought. See Piketty, Yang, and Zucman, “Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Inequality in China, 1978–2015.”
17. World Bank, Visualize Inequality, http://www1.worldbank.org/poverty/visualizeinequality/; OECD Data, Income Inequality, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm; Milanovic, Global Inequality.
18. E. Sommellier and M. Price, “The New Gilded Age—Income Inequality in the USA by State, Metropolitan Area and County,” Economic Policy Institute, July 19, 2018, www.epi.org/publication/the-new-gilded-age-income-inequality-in-the-u-s-by-state-metropolitan-area-and-county/.
19. World Bank Group, Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2016: Taking on Inequality, World Bank, October 2, 2016, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25078.
20. Shorrocks and Davies’s book Personal Wealth from a Global Perspective is the key text on wealth data. Their wealth data set is now updated and analyzed annually in the Credit Suisse Wealth Report, https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html.
21. Credit Suisse Research Institute, “Global Wealth Report 2018,” https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/research/research-institute/global-wealth-report.html.
22. Pew Research Center, “The American Middle Class Is Losing Ground,” December 9, 2015, http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/12/09/the-american-middle-class-is-losing-ground/.
23. Credit Suisse Research Institute, “Global Wealth Report 2015,” October 18, 2015, www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/global-wealth-report-2015.pdf.
24. Engen, Laubach, and Reifschneider, “The Macroeconomic Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Monetary Policies.”
25. Kate Versho-Downing, “Letter of Resignation from the Palo Alto Planning and Transportation Commission,” NewCo Shift, August 10, 2016, https://shift.newco.co/letter-of-resignation-from-the-palo-alto-planning-and-transportation-commission-f7b6facd94f5#.sw0wd0p1f.
26. Khatya Chhor, “French Students Most Affected by Social Inequality, OECD Finds,” France 24, December 14, 2016, https://www.france24.com/en/20161207-french-students-most-affected-socioeconomic-disadvantages-oecd-pisa-study.
27. Data collected at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Data & Statistics, https://www.cdc.gov/datastatistics/index.html.
28. Currie, Schwandt, and Thuilliez, “When Social Policy Saves Lives.”
29. Council of Economic Advisers, “The Underestimated Cost of the Opioid Crisis,” November 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/images/The%20Underestimated%20Cost%20of%20the%20Opioid%20Crisis.pdf.
30. Add Health: The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, UNC Carolina Population Center, http://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/addhealth.
31. Ferrie, Massey, and Rothbaum, “Do Grandparents and Great-Grandparents Matter?”
32. Barrone, and Mocetti, “What’s Your (Sur)Name?”
33. Data collected at CHNS: China Health and Nutritional Survey, UNC Carolina Population Center, https://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/china.
34. T. Marshall, “Physical Activity: Policy Statement,” Arthritis Research UK, March 2018, www.versusarthritis.org/media/2075/physical-activity-policy-statement-march-2018.pdf.
35. Analysis drawn from data at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Arthritis: Data and Statistics, https://www.cdc.gov/arthritis/data_statistics/index.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Farthritis%2Fdata_statistics.htm.
36. M. Rodell, J. S. Famiglietti, D. N. Wiese, et al., “Emerging Trends in Global Freshwater Availability,” Nature 557 (2018): 651–659, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0123-1.
37. NASA, “NASA Satellites Reveal Major Shifts in Global Freshwater,” press release 18-008, May 16, 2018,
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-satellites-reveal-major-shifts-in-global-freshwater.
38. McCarthy, The Moth Snowstorm.
39. US Postal Service, A Decade of Facts and Figures, https://facts.usps.com/table-facts/.
40. Statista: The Statistics Portal, “Mobile Social Media Usage in the United States—Statistics & Facts,” https://www.statista.com/topics/4689/mobile-social-media-usage-in-the-united-states/.
41. P. Hergovich and J. Ortega, “The Strength of Absent Ties: Social Integration via Online Dating,” research paper, September 17, 2018, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.10478.pdf.
42. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “American Time Use Survey—2017 Results,” news release, June 28, 2018, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/atus.pdf.
43. C. Kobayashi and R. Evans, “No Sex, Please,” BBC Radio 4, broadcast July 13, 2018, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b01vgv.
44. M. Brenan, “Nurses Keep Healthy Lead as Most Honest, Ethical Profession,” Gallup News, December 26, 2017, https://news.gallup.com/poll/224639/nurses-keep-healthy-lead-honest-ethical-profession.aspx.
45. Mair, Ruling the Void, 105.
46. European Commission, Standard Eurobarometer, 89, Spring 2018, Public Opinion, http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm.
47. Edelman, “2018 Edelman Trust Barometer,” January 21, 2018, https://www.edelman.com/research/2018-edelman-trust-barometer.
48. Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Voter Turnout Database, https://www.idea.int/data-tools.
49. “MEPs,” European Parliament, updated February 11, 2019, www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/search/chamber.
50. R. Dalio, Bridgewater Daily Observations (not publicly available), March 22, 2017.
51. According to the Angus Maddison database, in 1600 India and China had 22.4 percent and 29 percent of world GDP, respectively, and by 1700, 24.4 percent and 22 percent, respectively. Maddison Historical Statistics, University of Gronigen, Gronigen Growth and Development Centre, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/.
Chapter 3: What’s Next?
1. Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 4.
2. Chambers, Dimson, and Foo, “Keynes the Stock Market Investor,” 431–449.
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