by Rory McVeigh
TABLE A.1 Percent voting for Trump in primaries and caucuses, U.S. counties with state-fixed effects
Variable
1
Population density (log)
-.253
(.363)
% Romney, 2012
-.006
(.043)
Median age
.330***
(.065)
Median household income
.016
(.030)
% Unemployed
.510***
(.136)
% College degree
-.294***
(.048)
% Women in labor force
-.212**
(.063)
% Married
-.062
(.034)
Male education advantage
-.170**
(.059)
% Evangelical
.059*
(.023)
% Catholic
.070**
(.021)
% Nonwhite
.001
(.034)
% Retail occupations
.248***
(.065)
% Manufacturing
-.121**
(.038)
Number of observations
2876
R-Square
.897
Note: N=2,876; Robust standard errors in parentheses to account for clustering of counties within states; *** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05.
TABLE A.2 Interaction effects for OLS models predicting vote for Trump in the primaries and caucuses, U.S. Counties with state-fixed effects
Variable
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Population density (log)
-.253
-.123
-.176
-.258
-.160
-.253
-.264
(.363)
(.355)
(.349)
(.351)
(.362)
(.344)
(.350)
% Romney, 2012
-.006
-.005
-.001
.004
-.013
-.001
-.016
(.043)
(.042)
(.041)
(.042)
(.043)
(.043)
(.044)
Median age
.330***
.335***
.309***
.341***
.292***
.314***
.294***
(.065)
(.064)
(.066)
(.065)
(.070)
(.064)
(.067)
Median household income
.016
.001
-.135*
-.009
-.022
-.002
.010
(.030)
(.032)
(.058)
(.033)
(.037)
(.028)
(.030)
% Unemployed
.510***
.977***
.470**
.509***
.479***
.494***
.537***
(.136)
(.252)
(.135)
(.129)
(.135)
(.127)
(.114)
% College degree
-.294***
-.161
-.535***
-.956***
-.689***
-.143*
-.302***
(.048)
(.098)
(.076)
(.199)
(.130)
(.070)
(.047)
% Women in labor force
-.212**
-.195**
-.151**
-.385***
-.199**
-.180**
-.211**
(.063)
(.063)
(.052)
(.096)
(.063)
(.055)
(.061)
% Married
-.062
-.054
-.048
-.052
-.207***
-.043
-.037
(.034)
(.034)
(.035)
(.034)
(.052)
(.037)
(.036)
Male education advantage
-.170**
-.170**
-.167**
-.151**
-.168**
-.158**
-.169**
(.059)
(.059)
(.058)
(.055)
(.058)
(.059)
(.057)
% Evangelical
.059*
.058*
.053*
.052*
.059*
.121**
.063**
(.023)
(.023)
(.023)
(.023)
(.023)
(.035)
(.022)
% Catholic
.070**
.071**
.070**
.068**
.072**
.065**
.079***
(.021)
(.021)
(.022)
(.022)
(.021)
(.022)
(.019)
% Nonwhite
.001
.004
-.010
.001
-.013
.002
-.060
(.034)
(.034)
(.033)
(.034)
(.036)
(.033)
(.040)
% Retail occupations
.248***
.241***
.253***
.260***
.214**
.263***
.221**
(.065)
(.066)
(.066)
(.064)
(.067)
(.063)
(.065)
% Manufacturing
-.121**
-.130**
-.136***
-.122**
-.129**
-.137**
-.243***
(.038)
(.037)
(.037)
(.037)
(.037)
(.040)
(.041)
% College x % unemployed
-.030*
(.014)
% College x median household income
.004**
(.002)
% College x % women in labor force
.011**
(.004)
% College x % married
.008**
(.003)
% College x % evangelical
-.004**
(.001)
% Manufacturing x % nonwhite
.005***
(.001)
R-squared
.897
.897
.898
.898
.898
.899
.898
Note: N=2,876; Robust standard errors in parentheses to account for clustering of counties within states; *** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05
TABLE A.3 Percent voting for Trump in primaries and caucuses with control for Romney vote, U.S. counties with state-fixed effects
Variable
1
2
Population density (log)
-1.737***
-.606***
(.344)
(.125)
% Romney, 2012
.798***
(.022)
Median age
-.465***
.020
(.072)
(.036)
Median household income
.103*
.019
(.049)
(.015)
% Unemployed
-.361*
.061
(.170)
(.049)
% College degree
-.649***
-.372***
(.051)
(.020)
% Women in labor force
-.055
-.046
(.054)
(.023)
% Married
.488***
.023
(.088)
(.017)
Male education advantage
.138**
-.052*
(.050)
(.021)
% Evangelical
.125***
.033
(.022)
(.017)
% Catholic
.023
.030*
(.028)
(.014)
% Nonwhite
-.503***
-.156***
(.036)
(.012)
% Retail occupations
.026
-.016
(.073)
(.027)
% Manufacturing
-.076
-.006
(.042)
(.017)
Number of observations
2,876
2,876
R-Square
.866
.980
Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses to account for clustering of counties within states.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This book has come a long way since we completed an initial draft in 2017. Our first instinct, given the volatility of the Trump presidency (“breaking news” regularly blaring across our TV screens), was to complete the book as quickly as possible. We felt we needed to get it into print before it became “old news.” We are extraordinarily grateful to Columbia University Press, and especially our editor Stephen Wesley, for slowing us down. Rather than trying to beat the news cycle, Stephen encouraged us to develop a book that will stand the test of time and, we hope, interest readers for decades to come. He spent countless hours helping us with revisions—chiseling away at the academic jargon to reveal the important story that needs to be told.
We are especially thankful for the love and support of our families. The project also benefited from the reactions of our colleagues and students at the University of Notre Dame and Creighton University, who weighed in formally and informally every step of the way.
We have tried to approach the topic of the book as objectively as possible. Parts of our analysis, we are sure, will displease readers on the left as well as on the right. We only ask that it be read with an open mind. We fully recognize that good people come in all political stripes. For that reason, we approached our subject not by focusing on individual voters but instead by trying to understand and explain how the organization of our society creates fundamental divisions that we must work to resolve.
NOTES
1. INTRODUCTION
1. Robert Coughlan, “Konklave in Kokomo,” in The Aspirin Age 1919–1941, ed. Isabel Leighton (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1949), 105–29.
2. Rory McVeigh, The Rise of the Ku Klux Klan: Right-Wing Movements and National Politics (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2009).
3. David M. Chalmers, Hooded Americanism: The History of the Ku Klux Klan, 3rd. ed. (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1987), 162–63.
4. “Back to the Constitution,” Fiery Cross, July 6, 1923, 15.
5. Coughlan, “Konklave in Kokomo,” 106.
6. Joshua Rothman, “When Bigotry Paraded Through the Streets,” Atlantic, December 4, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/12/second-klan/509468/.
7. Robert Coughlan, quoted in Allen Safianow, “‘Konklave in Kokomo’ Revisited,” Historian 50, no. 3 (1988): 331.
8. “Imperial Wizard Presents Charters to Klans of Indiana at Huge Meeting in Kokomo,” Imperial Night-Hawk, July 11, 1923, 6.
9. “Imperial Wizard Outlines Klan Objectives before Immense Gathering in Ohio,” Imperial Night-Hawk, July 18, 1923, 1.
10. “The Conflict of the Ages,” Imperial Night-Hawk, July 16, 1924, 2.
11. Thomas R. Pegram, One Hundred Percent American: The Rebirth and Decline of the Ku Klux Klan in the 1920s (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2011); Kathleen M. Blee, Women of The Klan: Racism and Gender in the 1920s (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991); McVeigh, Rise of the Ku Klux Klan.
12. Pegram, One Hundred Percent American, 28.
13. McVeigh, Rise of the Ku Klux Klan.
14. “Funeral Service for a Texas Klansman,” Imperial Night-Hawk, November 28, 1923, 8.
15. Kathleen M. Blee, Women of the Ku Klux Klan: Racism and Gender in the 1920s, 2nd ed. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008), 100.
16. “LAW,” Imperial Night-Hawk, October 31, 1923, 2.
17. McVeigh, Rise of the Ku Klux Klan, 79–84; Nancy MacLean, Behind the Mask of Chivalry: The Making of the Second Ku Klux Klan (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994).
18. McVeigh, Rise of the Ku Klux Klan.
19. “Maine Governor and Trump Surrogate Won’t Resign after Racist Comments,” Fox Business, August 31, 2016, https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/maine-governor-and-trump-surrogate-wont-resign-after-racist-comments; Max Boot, “‘Sheriff Joe’ and Donald Trump Are Emblems of Racism and Lawlessness,” Los Angeles Times, August 28, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-boot-arpaio-pardon-20170827-story.html.
20. M. William Lutholtz, Grand Dragon: D. C. Stephenson and the Ku Klux Klan in Indiana (West Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Press, 1991).
21. “Transcript: Donald Trump’s Taped Comments About Women,” New York Times, October 8, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html.
22. Max Blau, “These Women Have Accused Trump of Sexual Harassment,” CNN, May 10, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/trump-women-accusers/index.html.
23. Nolan McCarty, Keith T. Poole, and Howard Rosenthal, Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (Boston: MIT Press, 2006); Alan I. Abramowitz and Kyle L. Saunders, “Ideological Realignment in the US Electorate,” Journal of Politics 60, no. 3 (1998): 634–52; Delia Baldassarri and Andrew Gelman, “Partisans Without Constraint: Political Polarization and Trends in American Public Opinion,” American Journal of Sociology 114, no. 2 (2008): 408–46; Matthew Levendusky, The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009).
24. Roland G. Fryer Jr. and Steven D. Levitt, “Hatred and Profits: Under the Hood of the Ku Klux Klan,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 127, no. 4 (2012): 1883–1925.
25. Lutholtz, Grand Dragon.
26. Rory McVeigh, “Structural Incentives for Conservative Mobilization: Power Devaluation and the Rise of the Ku Klux Klan, 1915–1925,” Social Forces 77, no. 4 (1999).
27. Kenneth Jackson, The Ku Klux Klan in the City, 1915–1930 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1967), 205–7.
28. Sam Wang, “Final Projections: Clinton 323 EV, 51 Democratic Senate Seats, GOP House,” Princeton Election Consortium, November 8, 2016, http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/final-mode-projections-clinton-323-ev-51-di-senate-seats-gop-house/.
29. “Who Will Win the Presidency?,” FiveThirtyEight, November 9, 2016, https://proj
ects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/.
30. Josh Katz, “Who Will Be President?,” New York Times, November 8, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html.
31. “Hillary Clinton’s Alt-Right Speech, Annotated,” Washington Post, August 25, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/25/hillary-clintons-alt-right-speech-annotated/?utm_term=.fedb2547976a.
32. “Clinton: Half of Trump Supporters ‘Deplorables,’” CNN, September 10, 2016, http://www.cnn.com/Videos/Politics/2016/09/10/Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-Basket-Of-Deplorables-Sot-Newday.cnn.
33. Jeff Stein, “Hillary Clinton: Half of Trump Supporters Are Racists, Sexists, and Other ‘Deplorables,’” Vox, September 10, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2016/9/10/12872596/hillary-clinton-trump-deplorables.
34. Catherine Rampell, “Americans—Especially but Not Exclusively Trump Voters—Believe Crazy Wrong Things,” Washington Post, December 28, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/wp/2016/12/28/americans-especially-but-not-exclusively-trump-voters-believe-crazy-wrong-things/?utm_term=.fdedb57000dc.
35. Sean McElwee, “Anatomy of a Trump Voter: How Racism Propelled Trump to the Republican Nomination,” Salon, https://www.salon.com/2016/07/23/anatomy_of_a_trump_voter_how_racism_propelled_trump_to_the_republican_nomination/.