by FX Holden
Rodriguez and Severin had started making polite conversation, but O’Hare leaned forward and thumbed a mike. “Whoa. That’s one fancy rig you got there, mate.”
Meany grinned. “Thank you, Captain. I’d be happy to trade war stories one day.”
“You’re on, Flight Lieutenant,” O’Hare said. “It’ll be my shout.”
“I guess that’s our introductions over with,” Rodriguez interrupted. “Ladies and gentlemen, we seem to all be here. Squadron Leader, if you’d like to begin?”
“Yes, Colonel. As you know, we’ve been authorized for a second joint-forces operation. Everyone here has participated in our Learning After Action, and, it is safe to say, there were many learnings, especially about the capabilities of these beasties.”
There was no disagreement on either side of the line.
“As you would also be aware, Russia has responded to our intervention by moving not one, but two new Groza units into orbit over the continental USA. We note one of these orbits also has a potential strike footprint taking in Scotland, Eastern England, mainland Europe, Turkey, and the Middle East.” He looked up, as though he could see through the ceiling. “An orbit which takes it more or less right over the top of Lossiemouth, which we do not regard to be a coincidence. So His Majesty’s Government has authorized me to advise that all available resources, including our Skylon, are at your disposal.”
The meeting had started more formally than Rodriguez was accustomed to, but she acknowledged his opening speech. “Thank you, Colonel, I think continued cooperation on this is in all our interests. Now, while I am told we have briefed NATO leaders on what we have seen, none are inclined to lend us the same level of assistance because, I’m afraid, the Russian asteroid field cover story is gaining more traction by the day, and also because they do not regard a ‘collision in space’ satisfies the requirements of Article 5 of the NATO treaty compelling them to come to our aid.”
“I wonder how NATO defines ‘collision,’” Zeezee wondered out loud. “Like, if a bullet hits the head of the General Secretary of NATO, is that just a collision?”
“Strike that comment from the record, please,” Rodriguez said into the air. “The reason for this session is that we need to take down that Groza system, all remaining 15 units, without starting World War Three, and the math is against us. We can’t keep trading one of our spacecraft for one of theirs, and the Groza is much more heavily armed than we first suspected. The missile which struck our X-37 has been identified as a modified Indian Shakti kill vehicle. Impossible to evade and damn near impossible to out-run. We have proven the Groza is vulnerable to missiles, but only during an attack from multiple vectors which overwhelmed its close-in weapons system.”
Severin chimed in. “And if you are thinking of an attack by ground-based weapons, we refer you back to clause 1; we do not want to start World War Three. The Saudis and Iranians are already swinging at each other, and Russia is happily tossing grenades into the fire. We start swatting Russian satellites out of the sky with something as obvious as anti-sat missiles, World War Three is what we will get.”
Meany raised a hand. “Colonel, are we brainstorming here, or do you have a proposal for us to consider? We can keep lobbing missiles at those Grozas, but we’d be creating debris fields so extensive no one would be able to put satellites into those orbits for another ten years.”
Rodriguez and Severin exchanged a look. Which caught O’Hare by surprise, because she hadn’t been forewarned of anything. She shot a glance at Zeezee, who sat, as usual, po-faced at the end of the table and gave nothing away. What? She was the only one not in the loop on whatever this was?
“We have had an approach, from … an unexpected quarter,” Rodriguez said.
“Would you care to expand on that, Commander?” Bear asked.
“Yes. It seems Abqaiq was not the only ground target to have been hit by a Groza strike in recent weeks. There was one other,” she said.
Tomas Arsharvin was not a man to wait for permission before doing what was needed. If Yevgeny Bondarev said he wanted to be rid of a foreign intelligence agent who was threatening his operation, then rid of her he would be.
He commanded his own Otriad, or battalion, of GRU personnel, so finding warm bodies for an operation was not an issue. He had one Spetsotdelin or section which specialized in the rendition of high-value targets, aka kidnapping. It had conducted several espionage support operations in Russia, the former Soviet Republics, and even in Europe. Within 24 hours, he had the skeleton of a plan. Within 48, he was on the telephone to Bondarev again.
“You send me the paperwork, Major-General, and I can deal with your Italian problem by the end of this week.”
“Not sooner?” Bondarev asked, only half joking.
“General, this isn’t as simple as dropping rocks on people’s heads from space. I have a team in the field, setting up the operation already. They will need two days. And I need to brief the individual I am going to use as bait…”
“Bait?”
If they pulled it off, Arsharvin’s plan was a win-win: Bondarev would be rid of the foreign spy and the GRU would gain something too. But he needed Bondarev’s help. “Yes, I will require the assistance of your Chief Scientist. She seems to have made a connection with the Italian. Don’t worry; I have a team prepped to support her.”
“You want the assistance of my most valuable staff member in a counter-espionage operation? Are you going to fill me in on the details of this operation?”
“Do you wish to know such details?” Arsharvin asked, surprised.
“I suppose not,” Bondarev said. “But I do want my Chief Scientist back in one piece when it is done.”
Arsharvin infused his voice with false innocence. “Is she currently in one piece?”
“China?” Bear asked. “China has offered to help us degrade Russia’s Groza network? Why? How?”
“Pentagon assumes China got hit,” Zeezee said. “Apparently, there was a seismic event near the Tarim Basin oil and gas fields a few days ago. It was logged as a small quake, but after China approached us, the seismic profile was compared to what we saw at Abqaiq, and it’s a match.”
“As to your second question, how can they help? They haven’t told us,” Rodriguez admitted. “But the approach came at the highest level; Chinese Ministry of Defense to State Department, Pentagon and now down to us for evaluation.”
“Sorry, ma’am, but how can we evaluate whether they can help us if they won’t tell us how they plan to do it?” Meany asked.
Rodriguez turned to her intelligence officer. “Halloran? Tell people what we know.”
“Yes, ma’am. According to DIA, there is what we suspect and what we know. What we know is that China has recently deployed two anti-satellite systems, the first being the air or ship-launched JC-19 anti-satellite missile and kill vehicle combination. It was first tested in the late 2010s and is now deployed across the PLA Army Airforce and Navy. Not so interesting, for the same reason our own anti-sat missiles aren’t really an option. The second is the BX-1 Parasite microsatellite system. This one is a little more interesting. We estimate China has about 100 of these 90 lb. microsats in orbit…”
“These are the things that physically attach themselves to passing satellites and then blow them up?” Meany asked.
“They’ve evolved,” Zeezee said. “China learned that leaving debris in orbit is probably not a great idea, and also, not very stealth. So the latest BX-1 build 3 clamps onto its target and uses microwave energy to fry its insides and disturb its orbit. All the enemy sees is that its bird has gone dead … the attack is virtually undetectable until you get a recon satellite or spacecraft up close and see the parasite.”
“That could be a very real option,” Paddington noted. “And a very fast one, depending on how quickly China could get these Parasites to match orbit with the Groza units.”
“The third capability is unconfirmed,” Zeezee continued. “We believe China has been experimenting
with directed energy weapons on its Tiangong space station.”
“Laser?” O’Hare asked.
“DIA analysts think they are testing various defensive close-in weapons systems for the station, both laser and microwave. Whether they can or are intended for use as offensive weapons is debatable – the Tiangong is huge, it isn’t exactly the sort of thing China can send all over the globe hunting enemy satellites.”
“Thanks, Halloran,” Rodriguez said. “It seems to us China has the capability, with either anti-sat missiles or this Parasite system, to help take down Groza. What they apparently lack is precise intel on which of the many Russian mil-sats in orbit are Grozas. And they lack up-to-date data on its offensive and defensive capabilities. They have asked us to share our intel so they can correlate it with theirs and coordinate a comprehensive strike.”
Squadron Leader Bear coughed. “We need to be sure China is not talking about firing dozens of ground or air-launched missiles into space. For the same reasons we don’t want to, we can’t have them doing so, are we agreed?”
“Absolutely, Squadron Leader,” Rodriguez agreed. “The Parasite option would be ideal. It leaves the Russian birds in orbit, we avoid huge debris fields or splashdowns like we saw off Maine, and it’s highly unlikely Russia could ever prove why its satellites went dead.”
“If Parasite really exists, no offense to DIA, and if it even works against these monsters,” O’Hare said. “With respect, we had a hard time trying to burn through their skin with a high energy laser, so they definitely have heat shielding. What’s to say they aren’t shielded from microwave energy as well?”
“Good point,” Meany agreed. “If they were shielded against the EMP burst from a tactical nuke, which would be smart, that would also protect them from microwave radiation, wouldn’t it?”
“I’m not sure there is much of anything that could protect you from a limpet mine that attached itself to you and started pumping out high-intensity microwave energy,” Halloran said. “My question if China uses Parasite mini-sats is how we would even know the Chinese attack was working? How do we see the Groza is dead if it is still orbiting?”
“Comms,” Severin said. “The things must be in communication with a ground station. We can map their comms signatures; we’ll see if they stop transmitting.”
“Takes time, though,” O’Hare said. “And it’s not foolproof. Russia sees what’s happening, it puts its Grozas into ‘radio silence’ mode, we think they’re dead, and they just wake them up again later?”
Rodriguez turned to Zeezee. “Let me sum up. One: tell your Pentagon contact we need some commitments from China before we share our targeting data. The first is that they plan to use a covert space-to-space weapons system for their attack. No ground or air-to-space missiles. They won’t want to confirm to us that Parasite exists, but if they agree, we can be pretty sure that is what they are using. Two: we want a test run. We give them solid intel on one Groza, they knock it out, and we check that it is dead. Only then will we share all our data and they can scale up their offensive. Any other thoughts before we close?”
O’Hare raised a hand. “This softly-softly approach, ma’am, if I was China? I might just say ‘thanks but screw you, guys; we’ll go with what we know and start taking out Grozas anyway.’ Anti-sat missiles, micro-sats, whatever it takes.”
“That might be what you’d do, Captain,” Rodriguez observed. “But China came to us, remember. It seems they want to work together on this threat, and knowing the Chinese, they’ll want to keep it low key.”
Low key was exactly how Major Fan Bo of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Xichang 27th Test and Training Base had been ordered to conduct its operation against the Russian Groza system. The PLA Strategic Support Force Network Systems Department had very quickly identified the attack on Korla as an orbital bombardment rather than a natural event. And given the large amount of open-source data being shared by Saudi and American sources claiming Russia was behind that attack, it reviewed its own data on the Groza system and reached the same conclusion as the US and UK.
Groza was an existential threat to Chinese aspirations in space, as well as to geopolitical stability, if Russia continued to use it to further its national economic goals.
Operational responsibility for responding to the Russian attack fell to Bo and his unit. Bo was commander of the Chinese Mao Bei program, otherwise known to western intelligence as Parasite. Parasite was indeed real. And it was capable beyond anything the western powers had imagined. Yes, the PLA had launched more than 50 Mao Bei BX-1.3 mini-sats in the last five years. That had been impossible to hide. But it had also launched more than twenty BX-1.4 satellites. Slightly larger than the 1.3, the BX-1.4 weighed nearly fifty kilos, could operate at altitudes up to 1,500 miles above the earth, and importantly, it could swarm. Developed in order to be able to overwhelm defensive systems and disable large targets such as enemy space stations or industrial space construction platforms, up to four BX-1.4s could be linked and pilot themselves to match orbit with a target object. They would then distribute themselves around the object with equal spacing or, if ground controllers recognized the object, would attach themselves to pre-identified weak points. Once in place, the swarm would begin radiating, enabling a BX-1.4 swarm to simultaneously target widely distributed propulsion or life support systems, communications, or weapons systems.
Bo was extremely proud of the sophistication of his weapons system. No other space-going nation could come close to matching it, and it was extremely effective. Close-in weapons systems such as lasers or ballistic weapons would find it hard to even lock onto the tiny satellites, and would almost certainly be defeated by a swarm. Once one or more Mao Bei had attached themselves to their target, that target was dead.
Or so he had thought. He had spent the morning reviewing a graphical reconstruction of the recent US and UK Groza engagement based on ground optical, signals intelligence, and radar observations. The reconstruction enabled him to see a 3D recreation of the battle sphere, with all combatants represented, and he could page forward and backward along the timeline of the engagement. Underneath the graphical screen, several smaller screens showed data about the engagement, from the velocity and relative distances of the combatants to the weapons used and estimate of damage inflicted.
The fight had been crude, even ugly. He shook his head, watching as the avatar for the US X-37 intercepted the Russian kill vehicle, and both were wiped from the board. At the end of the engagement, only the British Skylon remained operational, and it had all but depleted its missile store.
Why? He could clearly see the launch of the Russian Shakti, so the engagement confirmed what the PLA intelligence services had reported – Russia had mounted offensive weapons on its Grozas. But what else? Missile countermeasures, lasers, ballistic defenses … these could not be seen from the ground. Bo needed more data. He had every confidence in his Mao Bei mini-sats, even against these Russian behemoths, but he did not want to send them in unprepared.
And then there was the matter of how many Grozas Russia possessed. China had positively identified at least eight now, including the two believed responsible for the Korla attack. They were still orbiting, but whether they were capable of further attacks was impossible to know. They must possess powerful imaging and targeting capabilities, so it would make sense for Russia to leave them in orbit and use them for reconnaissance, even if their payloads were expended. But were there more than eight units? Even with AI assistants combing through databases of near-earth objects, they were still turning up more candidates.
It grated against every nerve in his patriotic body, but he needed whatever intel the Americans and British already possessed. Which meant they needed to work together. It was still only a year since a minor conflict over a US base on Okinawa had nearly cost the PLA Navy its flagship carrier, the Liaoning. The aircraft carrier was still docked in Shanghai, incapable of operations, repairs expected to take at least another year.
And
now they were going to the US asking for help. But not begging. Bo knew, watching the US/UK engagement with the Groza, that China had the superior solution to counter the Russian threat. The US must know that too. He told himself the US needed China more than China needed the US.
And they were about to prove it.
Bo had been given permission to deploy his Mao Bei mini-sats to disable the two Russian satellites orbiting over China which had been judged to have been responsible for the Korla strike. China would not be waiting for the US to make up its mind whether to ‘play ball’ or not before addressing the existential threat over its own territory.
Two days later, Bondarev’s ‘Italian problem’ had decided she would go straight from work at the Energy Ministry and not change, meeting Grahkovsky in her work clothes – a simple black pants suit and cashmere ankle-length fur-lined coat, with matching fur hat. The fur was mink, a product still allowed and in fashion in Russia. There were enough things on D’Antonia’s mind on any given day; animal rights were not one of them. She had thought about changing into something more suited to a night tripping from cocktail bar to cocktail bar, but then she had no desire to spend the night warding off drunk, self-important Russian men or their bodyguards, and besides, she doubted Grahkovsky would dress up. The woman would probably turn up in her lab coat. But just to be sure, she sent her a text. “Will be going straight from work to Bar Noori, no time to change, see you there!”
She had a simple plan for tonight. Cultivation, nothing more. She had no illusions that Grahkovsky would get drunk and spill her guts about the Groza program. She had no special chemicals to slip into her drinks to loosen her tongue. When Grahkovsky had called to say she was taking her up on her invitation, she had said, “And you must promise, only girl talk, no work talk.” So there would be no work talk tonight. Her goal for the evening was to put Grahkovsky in a cab at the end of the night thinking she was great company and agreeing they should do it again sometime.