Archie thought to himself, I have no issue with this.
Archie was under no illusion as to the danger that he was directing towards Steve.
There were a few more days in the office, and then Steve headed back to Afghanistan. This time he went back via Japan. There were to be four days snowboarding with Megan in Nagano. Fred was a generous boss who knew full well, that each return back into Kabul could well be Steve’s last. He was not going to begrudge him the normality, whenever the chance arose.
Chapter 13
Oleg Ivanov, a small, bespectacled man in his fifties, had risen to the rank of Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, through his adroit political skills, not necessarily through his competency. Dapper in how he dressed, he always wore a suit, even at the weekend and had a penchant for Cuban cigars. ‘We are all aware of the subject of the meeting today, the intention of the USA to enter and secure the mineral resources of Afghanistan.’ An extraordinary meeting at the Kremlin had been called at the behest of the President of the Russian Federation. ‘It is hard to contemplate such an action, but the information we are receiving forces us to this one conclusion. It is for us to evaluate this surprising development and to develop a response. Certainly, we cannot ignore American aggression.’
‘You are correct in your opening remarks.’ The President of the Russian Federation said, ‘If our intelligence is correct, then we must respond. We cannot allow the USA to reassert control in a country on the southern border of four countries that previously came under the Soviet umbrella. Four countries that today are economically dependent on Russia.
‘Why and how the Americans believe they can achieve this is hard to understand, but it is imperative that we do so in the next few weeks. If they intend to enter with force, we will need a measured response. We do know that America has disregarded the withdrawal directive of the Afghani government to exit their military fully from the country. It is evident some remain, although the numbers are minimal compared to those of a year ago, and they seem to be staying in a non-combative mode at a few bases in the South of the country.’
‘I would ask Foreign Intelligence Service Director Romenskaya to address the meeting and outline the process of analysis that has been used in coming to a conclusion about America’s intent,’ Secretary Ivanov proposed.
‘Thank you, Mr Secretary. It became apparent to our operatives in the USA, that significant quantities of mining-related materials were being requested throughout the country. Levels that were staggering and could only be related to a greenfield operation. No place on earth would justify the activity levels that these intimated, at least, none that we could see. Placed in this situation, we forwarded our results on to a team of academics here in Moscow, skilled in the interpretation of seemingly obscure facts.’
‘Who are these academics?’ The president interjected.
‘They are a small think tank.’
‘Ensure there is a member of the think tank here this afternoon.’
‘Yes, Mr President,’ the Secretary said.
Early afternoon, Igor Kabanoff arrived. Overweight and shabby, his weight the result of borscht, the traditional soup of beet, meat, and cabbage washed down with liberal amounts of vodka. He nearly didn’t make the meeting; he was severely drunk when those charged with bringing him to the president found him.
It took some rapid walking, some overly strong coffee, and a doctor to bring him around. By the time, he arrived, Igor Kabanoff was sober, functional, and coherent. He, however, had a head that felt as though it had been hit by a hammer, a throat that felt like sandpaper, and a stomach that was acting in a manner that could only be described as hostile. He, however, knew the majesty of the moment, and somehow the president was not to pick Kabanoff’s fragile state.
‘I understand that you and your team have accessed the intentions of the Americans about Afghanistan.’ The president addressed Igor Kabanoff directly.
‘Yes, Mr President, that is correct,’ responded Kabanoff nervously. He had not met the President of Russia before, although he knew his reputation for not suffering fools, and here he was, hung over, a desire to rush to the nearest toilet to throw up, and ill prepared for the grilling ahead.
‘Can you then outline your analysis? Firstly, how you have come to this deduction, secondly, what your team believe will be their plan of implementation, and thirdly, your analysis in how we should respond, and also whether we can emulate their plan and enter the country ourselves.’
‘Mr President, you have put forward a lot of questions for which my team needs to give a comprehensive response. We have until now been a small unit with a low budget.’
‘Your budget has now been resolved. Just let my people know what you want. It will be available immediately.’
‘Thank you, our deduction of the American plan is based on the fact, that we had seen this as a possibility for Russia. Our commitment to this has been tempered by two factors, the first being the countries that are between Afghanistan and us, and secondly, the willingness or otherwise, of the Russian military to enter into a prolonged and violent campaign to control Afghanistan. The cost of the military campaign may well outweigh the additional revenue that the resources would generate.
‘As Foreign Intelligence Service Director Romenskaya stated earlier, the intelligence services had seen the exceptionally large quantities of mining materials being sourced in the USA. It was clear that it could only relate to Afghanistan, and it aligned with the preliminary estimates we had formulated.’ The adrenaline had kicked in as Igor Kabanoff continued with his presentation. The queasy stomach, the rasping mouth, and the pallid expression, had been replaced by an alert and astute individual. Never again will I allow myself to be called to a meeting of such importance in the condition that I arrived here today, he thought.
‘If we agree that Afghanistan is correct, then how do they intend to get the mined resources out of the country? We will need your evaluation on how they plan to control the country later,’ the president asked.
‘I should say that our work at the think tank has been based on how Russia would access the wealth of Afghanistan. The fact that America is also considering presents a more complex scenario for which we need time to analyse.
‘Before this analysis, let me put forward a hypothesis.’ Kabanoff was on a roll. Here, he was, a lowly paid academic addressing the president of his country. He certainly would have something to tell his wife that night, ‘the first question must be on how they intend to access and exit the country, when we consider the immensity of the resources. There are two entry points for consideration, and only one of these is practical.
‘Pakistan has a substantial port in Baluchistan, to the west of Karachi. Port Gwadar, but the road from Kandahar down to Quetta in Pakistan is narrow, winding and must in the short term be dismissed. The other option is feasible and hard to believe, but I can see no other possibility. They intend to use Iran.’
‘The friction and antagonism between Washington and Tehran is palpable. You must be wrong,’ Secretary Ivanov exclaimed.
‘You are correct in your consternation, but it is the only possible option. The ring road around Afghanistan is in a reasonable condition. The road, just north of Kandahar to the Iranian border is sealed, and Iran has a decent road and railway network down to Port Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman.’
The president could see the possibility of America and Iran, even if Ivanov could not. ‘Mr Secretary, please ask our Ambassador in Tehran to come to Moscow within the next two days. Whereas, I can understand your disbelief about the Americans and Iran, it cannot be discounted. Stranger bedfellows have existed before, and we should all remember that politics is politics, business is business, and even countries more extreme than those two nations have made deals before, especially when it comes to money. And here, I am assuming is enough money to tempt anyone or any country to make a deal with the devil himself.’
‘Mr President, you are correct,’ Kabanoff
said.
‘We need our ambassador in Iran here. If there is a potential deal, then it is for us to prevent it formalising. We certainly have strong sway there,’ the president said.
‘Igor Kabanoff felt that he was on safe ground with the president and could speculate. ‘There is one question that remains. How do the Americans intend to control the country? Mining is a significant investment that requires an extensive time period. The development of infrastructure and the extraction and transport of these materials would need a stable country. No one has been able to control Afghanistan without extensive military support. It would be prohibitively expensive and logistically not possible.’
‘Please feel free to speculate.’ The president said.
‘There can only be one option. The north of the country will be controlled in the near to distant future by the Warlords; they can be bought. The South or at least the South West will almost certainly go back to the Taliban, and the main ring road goes through Kandahar. It is evident that either the Americans have found a way to make an agreement with the Taliban, or else they intend to defuse them, to render them inert. I can offer no clear thought on how they intend to achieve either objective.’
‘Let me clarify your statement. The Americans could enter the country, they could extract and transport the minerals, they could make deals with the Warlords, but they cannot avoid the Taliban,’ the president queried.
‘Mr President, without the Taliban marginalised, they cannot contemplate an entry into Afghanistan.’
‘We have a solution. As long as the Taliban are opposing the Americans, we will support them. Stranger bedfellows, I would agree, have never been found.’ The president was pleased with his solution. A pragmatist, he certainly had no illusions as to the necessity of doing a deal with such an abhorrent group. He knew they could not be trusted, but if they forestalled the Americans, until Russia was ready to enter the country, then that was all that mattered.
‘If you are in agreement, Mr President,’ Romenskaya, the Foreign Intelligence Services Director asked, ‘I would suggest we make preliminary and tentative contact with the Taliban, statements of assistance against the American aggressor, our interest in a cohesive and functioning Afghani state, etc., the usual jargon. They will not believe us, but they will accept our weapons, and they will use them to forestall any attempts by the Americans.’
‘Please commence discussions. No weapons until we are certain that it will halt the Americans,’ the president replied.
It was Igor Kabanoff who spoke. The discussions and the responses from the president had indicated a scenario that his team had seen but not revealed in depth. ‘Mr President, the discussions here today allow me to forward a plan that Russia may well consider. It comes with certain risks, both diplomatically and militarily and which have been alluded to earlier.
‘It is possible for Russia to access the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. We have suitable entry and exit points in the north of the country. We have pipelines for the oil and the gas, and we have railroads and a road system suitable for the purpose. There is one other issue which is of significant advantage. We do not need to go through Kandahar, and we do not need the Taliban’s assistance or consent. We only need to ensure they keep out of our way.’
Unbeknown to the Russian Security Council, and also the majority of the think tank in New York, Archie Smyth also had a plan to ensure that America did not need the assistance or the consent of the Taliban either.
The President of the Federal Republic of Russia summarised, ‘Gentleman, we are presented with a unique situation here. A situation we cannot ignore or discount. We will not allow America to come back into our sphere of influence. We were unable after our inglorious exit from Afghanistan, and the demise of the Soviet Union, to be able to impact on their involvement in the country from 2001 to the present.
‘To allow America to enter will also destabilise the countries to the north. Countries, we still believe should be under our control. America in the region, this time as an economic force, will weaken our control in those countries. Reluctant as I am to say this, we must reassert our control of any country that is susceptible to external influences. We are forced into a dangerous situation, but it is a situation that we cannot back away from. Failure on our part to respond to the Americans, would be tantamount to acknowledging the USA as the supreme superpower, both militarily and economically. Our hand is forced.’
Secretary Ivanov in his closing address. ‘I would suggest that we reassemble here in twenty-one days, when we will ask Igor Kabanoff’s team to present in detail, not only their evaluation of America’s plan, but also how Russia should approach the question of a response, and if we should re-enter Afghanistan. Subject to the president’s agreement, I would also ask that our ambassadors in Iran, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan be present.’
‘Agreed,’ the president responded. ‘There is an additional question. Do we take military control of the three former satellites to the North? Do we utilise this situation to commence the rebuilding of the Russian Empire?’
Chapter 14
It was George Hampshire who opened the meeting. ‘Gentlemen, today we intend to discuss the military’s involvement in the planned action. The president made it clear that there is to be no overt incursion of troops, no massive aerial campaigns, and no active participation in battling insurgents, fundamentalists, Warlords. and whoever else in the country. We are all aware that not only would it be prohibitively expensive, it would also fail. The military is able to assist in intelligence and advice, and if needed in the country, covertly.
‘Let me introduce two persons from the military who are well experienced on Afghanistan. Both have spent lengthy periods in the country, although rarely at the military bases, and rarely in uniform. As all present have the highest security clearance, I am able to state that Chuck Fielding and Howard Grayson head up covert operations teams in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Chuck hails from Dallas and Howard is from Toronto in Canada.’
Chuck, tall and loud, with cropped red hair could only have come from Texas. In his early forties, he had seen enough time in Afghanistan to know that he did not want to go back. Besides, there was a wife and a new baby in Dallas, and he did not want his daughter, she was now three months, and blessed with the same red hair, growing up with a dead war hero as a father.
Howard Grayson, he looked like an academic, was a short studious man of a similar age. Small circular spectacles perched on his nose and the wiry body frame of a runner. He was the antithesis to Chuck. Gifted in languages, he spoke all the main dialects of Afghanistan, and easily blended into the country. There had been too many years undercover and too many close encounters, and the last mission down in Helmand had gone horribly wrong, six of his colleagues had died. He felt his luck had run out, and he was not going to risk going into the field again. A confirmed bachelor, he saw his future teaching languages at a University in Canada. The invite to join the team in New York was received by both Chuck and Howard with enthusiasm. Chuck, because it confirmed he would not be returning to the field, that was one of the preconditions, he had it in writing, and Howard, he had six months before he took up his post as Associate Professor in the Department of Linguistics at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.
‘I realise that Archie is anxious to discuss the situation in country with Chuck and Howard,’ George said. ‘Before we let him present, I would ask Rusty to give an update in reference Russia’s attempts to counteract our activities, and the developing situation in Afghanistan.’
Chuck Fielding interjected before Rusty had a chance to speak. ‘Archie, we know by reputation. I was privileged to hear him present at an intelligence-gathering summit a couple of years ago, in Florida. Howard and I are keen to hear from him.’
‘Let me first update on what we know about the Russians,’ Rusty said. ‘We believe that an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council was convened recently, and, as expected, the President of
Russia was in attendance. Their Security Council runs along similar lines to ours, and we are reasonably certain that the main item on the agenda was related to what we are doing here, and our plans for Afghanistan. We do know that the Russian Foreign Services Director was present.
‘Without further details, it would be best to assume that they know everything and that they are working on a full plan similar to ours. To update Chuck and Howard, we believe that coupled with the large troop reductions by the allied forces in Afghanistan, there will be a devolution of the power of the central government in Kabul, and they will effectively become marginalised, with the Taliban in the South, and the Warlords in the North, filling the void. The plan is to set up deals with the Warlords, regional leaders and a moderate Taliban.’
‘I have an issue with the moderate Taliban.’ Archie stood up to register his concern.
‘Archie please let me continue. Your turn will come later. I am purely stating the plan at the present moment. The plausibility or otherwise, can be debated later.’
‘There is an estimated three trillion dollars in untapped wealth under the ground in the country. The mineral of greatest interest is lithium, and it is believed to have the largest reserves in the world.
‘There is one major issue with lithium, the vast majority is to be found slap bang in the middle of Helmand Province. We could only assess with a moderate Taliban. It took three thousand British troops five days to move a hydroelectric turbine from Kandahar airport one hundred and eighty kilometres to Kajaki dam in Helmand, and this was going to provide electricity for nearly two million persons. It will be impossible to contemplate mining there even if we keep the same level of military involvement for protection.’
Howard Grayson spoke, ‘I must agree with the comment that Archie made before. The concept of a moderate Taliban sounds like an oxymoron. Both Chuck and I only know one type of Taliban, and moderate is not one of the words we would use.’
Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1) Page 12