‘Latif, I sense the mood is not friendly towards me in Kandahar.’ Steve was talking to his manager in the city.
‘The Taliban are returning. Even if the people you see and meet are not sympathisers of the Taliban, they must act as though they are. They will have to live with them in a few months’ time.’
‘What are your views, at least, here in the confines of the guest house?’
‘I am not for extremism. I do approve of Sharia in its purest form. It is neither violent nor extreme, and it is not counter progressive. Unfortunately, it always seems to be taken to the extremes.’
It may be possible to use Latif to communicate with the moderate Taliban. He obviously has some communication with them, Steve thought. I will check with Archie as to whether we could use him.
Chapter 16
The second extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council convened at the Kremlin, as planned, twenty-one days after the first. Secretary Oleg Ivanov opened the proceedings. ‘Mr President, I would appreciate your saying a few words before our commencement. It is a pleasure to see our Ambassadors from Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan here with us today.’
‘Mr Secretary, I wish to emphasise the importance of this meeting. America’s intention to re-enter Afghanistan is increasingly obvious. They are intending to secure all of the mining interests in the country, as well as the oil and gas reserves in the North.
‘We cannot allow this to happen for several reasons. Firstly, it will destabilise the region. Secondly, it would impact the countries on its northern border, which the Ambassadors represent on behalf of the Russian Federation, and thirdly, if any country is to access Afghanistan’s substantial mineral wealth, then it should be us.
‘If America enters, it will almost certainly be through Iran. If we cannot forestall that activity, then we will be forced to respond. If we respond, that will mean a substantial military force moving through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. How do we deal with these countries? We require the Ambassadors present, to advise, or do we pre-empt the Americans and initiate our own move into Afghanistan?’
‘Mr President.’ Secretary Ivanov was careful to ensure the president was handled correctly. He did not take insufficient deference lightly. ‘I would ask Igor Kabanoff, as leader of our think tank to present. He has had the benefit of three weeks and a substantial budget increase thanks to your intervention. It is necessary for him to detail what America is likely to do, and his team’s recommendation on how we should respond.’
Igor Kabanoff had used the intervening three weeks well. He had bolstered his team, and with new offices, updated computers and a suitable budget, he felt poised to make a good impression on the president. He was lucky last time; the president had not noticed how drunk he had been, or had chosen to ignore. He had drunk little in the past twenty-one days, in part because he had been too busy, but mainly he needed a clear head. He still missed the vodka. ‘Mr President, Mr Secretary, Ambassadors and esteemed members,’ Kabanoff commenced his presentation, this time with a clear head. ‘It is clear that Iran is the only option possible.’
‘I can confirm that America has made representation to Tehran,’ interjected the Ambassador to Iran, Mikhail Novikov, a career diplomat who spoke Persian, the language of Iran fluently, ‘Discussions have been held in Dubai, although it appears that there are difficulties on both sides in reaching an agreement.’
‘They will reach an agreement; there is too much money involved,’ the president was quick to speak.
‘Mr President, that is our deduction,’ Igor Kabanoff taking control of the meeting again. ‘Our premise is that a deal will be struck. It forms the basis of our analysis. The port facility at Chabahar has limitations, and if there is a deal, then we should see American personnel assisting in upgrading the facility. It should be relatively easy to obtain confirmation when that occurs.’
‘We need the agreement scuttled before it comes to fruition. Ambassador Novikov, please see to it,’ The president ordered.
‘I will put my best people in Tehran on this as a priority.’
‘They will not enter Afghanistan until the Taliban is subdued,’ Kabanoff remarked. ‘We still have some confusion as to how they intend to achieve this. The only formulation that works is that they intend to remove them from the equation. It can only be large–scale liquidation.’
‘Explain large-scale liquidation.’ The president asked, although he was sure what it meant.
‘They can only control them by their removal; only by their deaths or at least those that could cause difficulties.’
‘Is that possible?’
‘It is possible, but it would require a great deal of intelligence, an extensive covert operation. It is not a venture the Americans have been willing to indulge in before, due to their sensitivities and political correctness. It would require a dramatic shift in American policy.’
‘If they achieve this, they will have my personal admiration. Politically and diplomatically they will have my condemnation for the barbaric manner in which they are killing vast numbers of people.’
‘We are aware that there has been a strengthening in their intelligence gathering in the country, and it is being relayed back to somewhere in New York,’ Foreign Services Director Romenskaya confirmed.
‘Find out where in New York,’ The president commanded.
Igor Kabanoff surmised, ‘I would venture that this is our team’s equivalent in America. Their military would not be sufficiently inventive or subtle, and the CIA would not know what to do with the information.’
‘Then we need to know who they are and what they are up to. We need someone on the inside.’
‘I will ensure this occurs.’ Romenskaya responded. He was not sure how it could be achieved, but a negative response to the president was not a viable option.
The meeting was digressing from Kabanoff’s prepared presentation, but it was well received, and generating as many unanswered questions, as he was providing answers.
‘Let us return to the Taliban,’ the president said, ‘if we believe that the Americans intend to kill them, at least those that could cause trouble, then how would they achieve this? What would we need to do to prevent? I am not advocating that they are worthy of saving. On the contrary, the American solution is brilliant. We do not have the same problems; we can isolate them in the South with relative ease and extract all we want out through the north. We spoke last time about assisting these lunatics if they were opposing the Americans. It appears that now we may need to protect them.’
‘Mr President, your assessment is correct,’ Igor Kabanoff said. ‘The question of how they intend to eliminate the Taliban remains unclear. It may be possible with sufficient intelligence, on-the-ground operatives, and missile-equipped drones. They would still need the assistance of the Pakistan Military to close the borders and to deal with the fundamentalists on their side.
‘Then we make representations to the Pakistan government,’ the president stated, ‘they are easy to deal with. Offer them foreign aid, military equipment, as well as the normal bribes to their politicians.’
Igor Kabanoff endeavoured to get his presentation back on track. ‘Mr President, I still have a substantial amount of information to present. If it is agreed, then I would like to put forward the situation, if we pre-empt the Americans and go in first.’
‘Please present, I believe we have exhausted the Taliban for the present.’ The president responded.
‘Thank you. It is a much easier exercise for us to enter and exit the country through the north. There were, however, certain reasons which had caused us to reject instigating our own action. As a result of our last meeting, when it became clear that we may have to enter the country to repel the Americans, we have re-evaluated our move to Afghanistan.
‘If we are pre-emptive of America, even if we know they are on the way to Iran and then into the country, we will be seen as invaders, not only of Afgh
anistan, but also of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. We cannot defend this position, and assistance from America and the world community will be given to those countries. Pre-emptive serves no point.’
‘That makes sense,’ the president said.
‘There is a different scenario. If it is clear to the world media that America intends to enter the country, then our move to the defence of Afghanistan can be seen as valid. At least, we can argue this. It is unlikely that it will be universally accepted. Our history in Afghanistan is too fresh in many minds, and the majority of the world’s media and politicians will lambast us for using the Americans as an excuse to become expansionist.
‘Once, it is seen that the Americans are clearly moving in, we will need to transit Kazakhstan, and then either Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan or possibly all three. I will allow the military gentlemen here today to comment on the numbers of personnel and equipment, but it will be substantial.’
It was the commander-in-chief of the Russian Ground Forces, Colonel General Lukin who responded. A military man, his rise up through the officer ranks had been meteoric. In part because of ability; he had been the senior military person during the Second Chechen war in 1999, but mainly because he was the second cousin of the president. ‘At least fifty thousand ground forces, three hundred tanks, four thousand armed personnel carriers, ---.’
The president halted him in mid-speech. ‘Substantial numbers, enough to be considered an invasion force.’
‘Correct.’
‘Then can we discuss how we are going to deal with these four countries?’ the president asked.
Colonel General Lukin, quick to establish his position in the deliberations responded. ‘They will not go for it. If, we say we are traversing their country for the protection of another, it will fall on death ears. Our history in Afghanistan is well known, and those countries remember how we suppressed them violently when the situation required.’
‘I agree with Comrade Colonel General Lukin.’ Eduard Struve, the Ambassador to Kazakhstan, said. ‘Our relationship in Kazakhstan is difficult. We are only tolerated due to economic realities. They will not countenance a military transit of their country. They would be fearful we would remain and exert military control.’
‘It is necessary for our Ambassadors to sound out their respective the governments,’ the president said. ‘Use the normal words of special friendship, enhanced trading opportunities, protection of sovereignty from the Western imperialist powers.’
‘Mr President, with all due respect,’ the Turkmenistan Ambassador, Boris Dashkov said, ‘they will not believe our statements. If they allow our military through they will have the Russian military on their north and south borders. Regardless, of what we say, whatever influence and pressure we bring to bear, they will never accept our transiting.’
The president responded. ‘Ambassador Dashkov, you are correct. What is important is that we must play this diplomatically. The fact that they will reject is of minor consideration. We, however, will be able to announce to the World and especially the U.N., that we had offered in the name of friendship and cordiality, the opportunity for these countries to be part of the exercise to protect Afghanistan from the Western invader.
‘We can say it, no one will believe us, but we have shown consideration and acted as a responsible member of the World community. Besides, they can’t stop us going through.’
‘Mr President,’ Comrade Colonel General Lukin asked. ‘What happens after?’
‘What we do with these countries after we have dealt with the Americans will be another issue. We can retreat back and control them economically, or we will just leave some of our militaries in their countries on the way back. I think it is clear as to which of the options I have just outlined will be implemented.’
The mention of the reclaiming of the countries and their bringing under the yoke of Mother Russia was music to the ears of Secretary Ivanov. He remembered the might of the Soviet Union from his childhood growing up in Murmansk in the north of the country. He remembered the nuclear-powered submarines heading out into the Barents Sea. Maybe Glasnost and the demise of this once mighty nation were inevitable, but here was an opportunity to return to those glory days. As a proud Russian, he remembered with fondness the patriotism that the Soviet Union represented. It may have been economically difficult at times, but there was no one sleeping on the streets, no one hungry, and everyone had employment.
‘Mr President, there is one issue we should consider,’ Colonel General Lukin said. ‘It is possible that we will have Russian ground troops looking across the Afghan border at American troops. There is the likelihood of direct military action between our two countries. This raises a precedent which could escalate into nuclear conflict.’
‘Your point is well taken,’ the president replied.
‘What we need to do is to be prepared for the eventuality, but no action until there is a clear change to the situation. There are two scenarios that could force us to act. The first being the move of the mining teams into the country, and the second being a substantial increase in American and NATO troops in the country. We need to conduct the exercise of mobilisation, but we should not make any attempt to move towards the northern border of Kazakhstan. It will not take us long to mobilise. We were able to put eighty thousand troops on the border with the Ukraine within a couple of weeks.’
‘Mr President, ‘Igor Kabanoff stated, ‘your logic is correct. That would have been the recommendation of my team.’
‘I should state before we close the meeting,’ the president said. ‘we need someone on the inside in New York, We need details.’
Igor Kabanoff interjected, bravely on his part. The president did not like to be interrupted. ‘Mr President, my apologies, but your statement brings up a point that my team cannot understand.’
‘I do not like to be interrupted, but in this case, I will overlook as long as you give me a valid reason.’ The president was clearly annoyed.
‘Mr President, once again my apologies. What we do not understand is why the Americans are so interested in the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. Agreed, it is substantial, but they have to negotiate with Iran for access, and Tehran will apply very stringent conditions for their approval. They have to remove the Taliban, and they have not been willing to indulge in mass killing before. Then there is the cost of controlling the country, paying off the Warlords, the corrupt politicians. It just doesn’t seem worth it. There must be another reason.’
‘I accept your interruption. We need to know the reason for their interest,’ the president said.
Chapter 17
‘Gentlemen, we have allowed Archie the opportunity to put forward his solution for the Taliban.’ George Hampshire was adamant to bring the meeting in New York back to the original subject. ‘Today, we must focus on Russia.’
Archie was quick to speak, ‘I apologise, it was important. With the Taliban, we will not enter the country, and we will not secure the mining assets. Russia will not be an issue if the fundamentalists remain.’
‘That may be the case,’ George responded, ‘but there is the added complication that Russia may enter regardless of us.’
George relieved that it was now possible to align the attendees at the meeting continued. ‘We need to understand their possible actions regarding timing, mobilising, and how they will deal with the former Soviet controlled countries to the North of Afghanistan. We have confirmation that Russia is actively discussing a similar plan to ours. It apparently had not received much credence at the Kremlin in the past, due to the issue of the countries between it and Afghanistan.
‘However, we must assume our actions are precipitating responses and actions in Russia. They will not let us go in unhindered. It is their surveying of the country that formed the majority of our analysis, so they know what is there. They will not let us take it.’
‘The benefits for Russia, if they managed to re-establish themselves back in the Afg
hanistan must not to be underestimated. They certainly had a difficult time last time they were there, but economics is economics, resources are resources. They will be swayed.
‘It is apparent they will attempt to place an intelligence operative inside this office. I’m sure you’ve become annoyed in the last week with the ever-tightening security as we enter the building. They would certainly be interested to know if we have an innovative solution to secure the country, without the inevitable debilitating and costly military action.
‘Their last incursion precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union. Tsarist, Communist, or capitalist, and apparently democratic, it is part of their psyche to protect their borders. They would have no issues installing puppet regimes and reasserting military control over the countries between them and Afghanistan. After the demise of the Soviet Union, they had neither the money nor the enthusiasm. Nowadays, they have the money. Let us assume they have the enthusiasm.
‘No doubt they will try to calm the way by facilitations, soothing words, and intense diplomacy. They will however not countenance any resistance, and they will be indiscriminate in using violence, if it serves their aims.
‘Russia could militarily resist our planned advance into the country, but that would be an open aggression. Besides, they want the wealth, not war with the USA.’
‘We are predicting that the solution with Russia will be diplomatic,’ Fred Bull said. ‘There will certainly be military posturing, there will be casualties, and it will go close to the wire. It will be brinkmanship par excellence. It is the only way it can be played, but rest assured that the team is planning the moves and counter moves, the agreements and counter-agreements until the ultimate resolve. It will not come to war, but it will come very close. I have total confidence in my people to bring this to a conclusion.’
‘Encouraging words,’ George said. ‘I only hope you are correct. If confrontation is inevitable, then I hope your confidence is justified, or we could be starting World War Three.’
Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1) Page 15