Daniel S Markey

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by No Exit from Pakistan (pdf)


  Why Do They Hate Us?

  103

  anti-Americanism to new heights. And that would take U.S.-Pakistan relations

  to new lows.

  lessons of history

  Even before the George W. Bush administration threw its weight behind Presi-

  dent Musharraf’s undemocratic regime or launched its war in Afghanistan,

  before President Obama accelerated the use of drones in Pakistan’s Federally

  Administered Tribal Areas or sent Navy SEALs to kill Osama bin Laden, the

  Pakistani public had deep misgivings about the United States. Pakistani anti-

  Americanism in the post-9/11 period has its roots in the tortured history of

  U.S.-Pakistan relations from the early stages of the Cold War.

  As new Pakistani grievances against the United States pile up, they tend to

  look like variations on existing themes. Different segments of the Pakistani

  public have had different misgivings about the United States. Some liberal

  Pakistanis, like Aitzaz Ahsan, saw the American tendency to back military

  dictators as its greatest flaw. Others, rabid nationalists like A. Q. Khan, felt

  that Pakistan could not trust America when the chips were down, particularly

  when it came to dealing with arch-nemesis India. And still others, jihadists

  like Hafiz Saeed, have been indoctrinated in a worldview that places hos-

  tility toward the United States, India, and Israel at its core. Together, these

  three strands of anti-Americanism define the vast majority of Pakistani public

  opinion.

  History also shows the essential continuity in American and Pakistani strate-

  gies over time. Pakistan has, through thick and thin, perceived its relationship

  with Washington as a means to deal with India. After 9/11, this was again the

  case. As President Musharraf explains in his 2006 memoir, Pakistan chose to

  partner with America out of fear that Washington and New Delhi might unite

  against Pakistan, not because Islamabad felt a genuine compulsion to assist

  after the 9/11 tragedies or a sense of shared interest in confronting Islamist

  terrorism.106 For its part, Washington has also held true to its historical pat-

  tern of using Pakistan to serve other regional and international goals. If not for

  9/11, it is a safe bet that U.S.-Pakistan relations would have continued along

  the downward spiral of the late 1990s.

  America can learn from its history with Pakistan. Future U.S. policies would

  be improved if they take seriously the problems, so well appreciated by Pak-

  istan’s liberals, of Pakistan’s civil-military imbalance. If not, Washington will

  again find itself tipping the political scales in the army’s favor. Similarly, know-

  ing that Pakistan’s nationalists anticipate another American “abandonment,”

  Washington would do well to consider how its relations with Pakistan fit with –

  or contradict – U.S. plans for Afghanistan and for the wider Asia-Pacific region,

  especially with India. Finally, U.S. policy would be more enlightened if it

  106 Pervez Musharraf, In the Line of Fire (New York: Free Press, 2006), p. 202.

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  No Exit from Pakistan

  includes a realistic plan that begins to address the socioeconomic and espe-

  cially the political trends that have given strength to Pakistan’s jihadists.107

  Otherwise, Pakistan’s terrorists will silence the liberals and co-opt the nation-

  alists.

  Let there be no mistake, however, Pakistanis do not hate America sim-

  ply because the United States has sinned against them. Anti-Americanism in

  Pakistan is a by-product of the interaction between U.S. policy and Pakistan’s

  own national decisions and internal dynamics. Each nation has pursued its

  interests, as it perceived them at the time. Washington is guilty of placing other

  goals, from anti-communism and nonproliferation to counterterrorism, over

  its commitment to Pakistan per se. For its part, Islamabad is guilty of misrep-

  resenting its commitment to American goals in order to extract the material

  benefits of partnership with a superpower.

  107 On the complicated interaction between politics, socioeconomic status, and education as drivers for Pakistani support of Islamist militancy, see Jacob N. Shapiro and C. Christine Fair, “Understanding Support for Islamist Militancy in Pakistan,” International Security, 34, no. 3 (Winter 2009/2010), pp. 79–118.

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  4

  U-Turn to Drift

  U.S.-Pakistan Relations during the Musharraf Era

  Almost exactly ten years after the 9/11 attacks, Admiral Michael Mullen,

  chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified before the U.S. Congress that

  the Haqqani network – a branch of the Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan’s

  tribal areas – operated as a “veritable arm” of the Pakistani state.1 The chair-

  man’s claim came in the aftermath of several high-profile Haqqani-orchestrated

  attacks inside Afghanistan, including one in which armed gunmen briefly man-

  aged to fire into the U.S. Embassy grounds from a nearby Kabul construction

  site.2

  None of these attacks threatened to dislodge NATO’s International Security

  Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan in a military sense. Even so, such

  violence in the heart of heavily fortified Kabul cast new doubts about whether

  the United States had any serious prospect of winning the war. Public skepticism

  was already on the rise. By late October 2011, 63 percent of Americans opposed

  the U.S. war in Afghanistan.3

  By his testimony, Mullen essentially accused Pakistan of being a state spon-

  sor of terrorism. Given its ties to the Haqqanis, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelli-

  gence directorate (ISI) had American blood on its hands. The senior-most U.S.

  military officer spoke before Congress sitting shoulder-to-shoulder with the sec-

  retary of defense, Leon Panetta. Although Mullen had made similar remarks to

  the Pakistani media months earlier, the formal Capitol Hill testimony carried

  1 Thanks to K. Alan Kronstadt at the Congressional Research Service for sharing detailed chronologies of the period covered in this chapter and the next.

  2 Alissa J. Rubin, Ray Rivera, and Jack Healy, “U.S. Embassy and NATO Headquarters Attacked in Kabul,” New York Times, September 13, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/14/world/

  asia/14afghanistan.html? r=1.

  3 “CNN Poll: Support for Afghanistan War at All Time Low,” CNN, October 28, 2011, http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/10/28/cnn-poll-support-for-afghanistan-war-at-all-time-low/.

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  No Exit from Pakistan

  greater political weight in Washington and Islamabad.4 In both instances, his

  damning conclusion came as a shock to
many Pakistanis who had considered

  Mullen a “pro-Pakistani” voice among Obama’s top officials. Mullen earned

  this distinction from spending long hours cultivating ties with Pakistan’s army

  chief, General Ashfaq Kayani. Like many officers, Mullen placed a great deal

  of stock in the notion that personal connections with foreign officers build

  more effective state-to-state relationships. If Pakistan’s generals had a friend in

  Washington, he was it.5

  The normally mild-mannered admiral’s blunt characterization of ISI-

  Haqqani links also surprised many outside observers. Other American officials

  had made similar accusations, but Mullen’s tone, setting, and timing suggested

  the potential for a deeper policy shift within the administration. For several

  days, it was difficult to determine just what Mullen’s testimony really meant.

  Even inside the U.S. State Department and parts of the National Security Coun-

  cil, officials scrambled to figure out how Mullen’s statement – which apparently

  had not been blessed in detail by a full interagency consensus – would affect

  U.S. policy.6 In the end, the White House and State Department tried to sweep

  the entire incident under the carpet. They downplayed the direct connections

  between the ISI and attacks on U.S. troops in Afghanistan.7 But Mullen’s

  remarks were a part of the indelible historical record, and on Capitol Hill they

  carried more weight than the disclaimers that followed.

  Whatever the logic of Mullen’s outburst, Pakistanis were quick to grasp

  that if the admiral had soured on them, Washington’s sympathy was pretty

  well exhausted. Such a public rebuke by a senior official was rare. In Pakistan a

  few weeks after his testimony, I found widespread concern that Mullen’s state-

  ment might be a precursor to war with America. Hard-line Pakistani pundits

  and politicians stoked these fears on television. They announced that Pakistan

  would resist American pressure and that the nation was prepared to go to war if

  necessary. In a conversation with a small group of young Pakistani profession-

  als in Karachi, I observed that I could not rule out a deeper rupture in relations

  between Pakistan and the United States. In response, one earnest young man

  4 Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Mullen Launches Diatribe against ISI,” Dawn, April 21, 2011, http://dawn

  .com/2011/04/21/pakistans-isi-links-with-haqqani-militants-us/.

  5 It is widely rumored that Mullen took a lead role in advocating a three-year extension for Kayani at the army’s helm. Without it, Kayani would have retired in mid-2010. See Riedel, Deadly Embrace (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2011), p. 121. For his part, Mullen denies the rumors. See

  “Mullen Denies Involvement in General Kayani’s Extension,” Canadian Asian News, February 2012, http://www.canadianasiannews.com/images/e-issues/Canadian%20Asian%20News%20

  (%20Febuary%2015–28%202012).pdf.

  6 Author conversations with State Department and National Security Council staff, September 2011.

  7 Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung, “Adm. Mullen’s Words on Pakistan Come under Scrutiny,”

  Washington Post, September 27, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-securi ty/adm-mullens-words-on-pakistan-come-under-scrutiny/2011/09/27/gIQAHPJB3K_story.html.

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  U-Turn to Drift

  107

  ruefully commented, “you must understand, your words have made all our

  hearts pound faster – we are frightened of what the future might hold.”

  Over the fall, tensions ebbed slightly, but on November 26, 2011, NATO

  forces killed twenty-four Pakistani soldiers along the Afghan border, believing

  them to be insurgents. The news briefly made headlines in the United States but

  garnered nonstop media coverage in Pakistan. Some of the details of the case,

  including who fired first, remain disputed. There is no doubt, however, that

  one of the worst blunders of the incident came when NATO misinformed a

  Pakistani liaison officer about the location of a ground attack. The coordinates

  he shared were wrong by nine miles.

  No matter the specifics of the incident, the toxicity of the U.S.-Pakistan

  relationship made it impossible to resolve matters quickly or easily. Even if

  Pakistan’s army had wanted to absolve Washington of blame – which it clearly

  did not – Islamabad as a whole saw far greater political advantage in venting

  its anger. Politicians, including members of the left-leaning Pakistan People’s

  Party (PPP) government, followed the army’s lead. The PPP was already under

  intense pressure owing to an ongoing scandal (dubbed “memogate” by the

  hyperbolic media) that painted its leaders as pro-American, anti-army stooges.

  In an attempt not to be outdone by howling Islamists and nationalists, Pak-

  istan’s prime minister accused Washington of having launched a premeditated

  strike on Pakistani forces.

  As compared to the past, when smaller friendly fire incidents had also

  claimed Pakistani lives along the Afghan border, Islamabad was no longer

  willing to seek a quiet accommodation with Washington or to chalk the latest

  deaths up to the tragedy of war. Pakistani officials demanded a full and public

  apology from Washington. The White House refused.8 The U.S. embassy in

  Islamabad and the Pentagon shared their condolences, but that did rather little

  to assuage Pakistani anger.

  Islamabad closed its border crossings to Afghanistan, stemming the flow of

  NATO war supplies. Those crossings were not reopened until July 3, 2012.9

  Under Pakistani pressure, Washington also agreed to shut down its “secret”

  Shamsi airbase located in a barren valley of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province.

  Pakistan had originally leased the facility to the United Arab Emirates so that

  its royals could go on traditional hunting expeditions for bustards, the species

  of large birds that nest in the region.10 After 9/11, Shamsi’s airstrips were

  upgraded and subleased to the United States for emergency landings and a very

  8 Adam Entous, Siobhan Gorman, and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. Agonizes over Apology to Pakistan,” Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230

  3505504577406151609731364.html.

  9 Eric Schmitt, “Clinton’s ‘Sorry’ to Pakistan Ends Barrier to NATO,” New York Times, July 3, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/04/world/asia/pakistan-opens-afghan-routes-to-nato-after-us-apology.html?pagewanted=all.

  10 “UAE mounts pressure to get airbase decision reversed,” Dawn, November 29, 2011, http://

  www.dawn.com/2011/11/29/uae-mounts-pressure-to-get-airbase-decision-reversed.html.

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  No Exit from Pakistan

  different sort of hunting. Armed U.S. drones took off from Shamsi to fly over

  Pakistan’s nearby tribal areas, their missiles loaded by contractors, presumably

  to reduce the official U.S. footprint there. Within weeks, the facility was

  emptied and ret
urned to Pakistani authority.11 Pakistan’s leaders declared that

  they planned to reevaluate all remaining forms of cooperation with the United

  States.

  Both the Mullen and Salala incidents demonstrated the significance of pub-

  lic, as compared to private, diplomacy between Washington and Islamabad.

  Mullen’s testimony set off political explosions in Pakistan in ways that tough

  messages delivered in private never had. Similarly, the White House’s initial

  refusal to apologize for Salala carried outsized political repercussions. In some

  ways, this was an unfamiliar dynamic; in a new era of intense Pakistani media

  scrutiny, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship was becoming more politicized and less

  amenable to behind-the-scenes management.

  At the same time, past American policymakers had often appreciated that

  criticism delivered in public would be hard for their Pakistani counterparts to

  swallow, and should therefore be used sparingly and with purpose.12 Unfor-

  tunately, neither the Mullen testimony nor the Salala non-apology were put

  to constructive ends. Washington’s unwillingness to harness Mullen’s verbal

  firepower as coercive leverage turned his parting shots into nothing more than

  disruptive irritants. Likewise, if the White House had made timely use of the

  “s-word” (sorry) after Salala, it is possible that months might have been shaved

  off the time taken to reopen NATO supply routes to Afghanistan.

  america’s missed opportunities

  All told, ten years after 9/11, relations between Washington and Islamabad

  looked at least as bad as they did before Musharraf was drafted into Bush’s

  war on terror. Fresh wounds were inflicted atop the deep bruises of the past.

  The United States had fought a prolonged battle against al-Qaeda in ways that

  succeeded in killing most of its top leaders, but it never brought Americans and

  Pakistanis together in a common understanding of the terrorist threat. In the

  Afghan war, Washington suffered from distraction, setbacks, and stalemate,

  all the while failing to resolve fundamental differences with Islamabad over

  how to fight the war or how to end it. And despite extensive diplomacy,

  public outreach, and tens of billions of dollars in aid, the United States never

 

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