The Seat Selection
Having a good seat at a table is almost as important as the table itself. In an ideal world, we would have very passive/folding players sitting on our left, and some fish on our right. This allows us to steal relentlessly and pick up easy blinds, and also get direct value by being in position on the fish on our right side. Of course, we don't live in an ideal world, but such seats are still something we should strive to look for and sit in whenever possible.
Aggressive players on our right aren't the worst of things, but aggressive players on our left are annoying and create lots of issues. They 3-bet often and force us to get into a “4-bet or defend” mode fairly quickly. The obvious option is to cut down our stealing and stick to playing stronger hands that can compete well against their aggressive 3-betting, but this can reduce our expected win rate from the button and cutoff. Having to choose a seat where a player on our left reduces our most profitable positions at a table is something that is usually unnecessary. Not only do we not want that to happen on any table, but we usually have so many other table options available that we can and should leave and choose a better table as soon as possible.
A lot of players will argue that we should stay at the table and try to compete against the tough player. They say we should learn to fight and beat this player because we will have fewer tables available to us as we move up the limits. While this is valid to an extent, it is important to realize that we have multiple online card rooms to choose from, giving us even more table options. Also, when we are playing higher and against better and more aggressive players, our reaction should not be “I am going to try to outplay him and get into an aggressive 3-bet defense/4-bet game.” Our reaction, unless we have an edge, should be to play more straight forward. There is no reason for us to get into super high variance, and possibly -EV, situations when they are easily avoidable in lieu of better profit potential.
The Image
Keeping our image in mind is important at all times. This can be hard when we are playing multiple tables, but it is still very crucial while playing against observant players. There are sessions where we are playing an overall TAG style on 10 tables, but on one of those tables we are running 33/28 and on another we are running 6/6. Keeping our HUD stats up on each individual table will help us judge how our opponent's view us on that particular table.
Some big things to consider about our image are:
How often we are stealing. The more we steal, the more people will start to aggressively resteal on average.
How often are we 3-betting. The more we 3-bet, the more people will tend to start 4-betting/defending against it on average.
Fish don't care. Fish just don't care all that much about our image. They may notice if we are super tight or super loose, but on average, they just aren't paying attention to us.
Fit-or-fold players don't usually care. These players, especially postflop, tend not to care about our image. They just care about their hand strength on average.
Balance. Many players will argue that they have to raise a certain hand from a certain position, or call a certain hand here to keep a balanced range. While this is true in a game where everyone cares, that usually isn't the case at the tables we play on. So we don't need to do things for the sake of balancing on average.
We stacked off badly. Just because we happened to stack off with AK on a K high board versus a set, doesn't mean most players are going to approach us any differently the next hand. On average, players are so focused on their own hands that they don't adjust their stack off ranges.
The Stack Sizes
One of the most important pieces of our profit puzzle comes from stack sizes. It never ceases to amaze me how often players overlook this very simple, yet incredibly important, piece of information. Stack sizes are simple. The smaller a stack size is, the more direct value our hand needs to have. The larger a stack size is, the more implied value becomes important.
These are the standard stack sizes:
1bb-29bb: short stacks
40bb-60bb: medium stacks
80bb-120bb: standard stacks
150bb: medium-deep stacks
200bb: deep stacks
300bb+: super deep stacks
Take a hand where we have 86s on the button. UTG open raises and it comes around to us. Without even talking about player types, we would always fold this to a short stack. Our 86s hand has no direct value; all its value is implied from hitting a strong hand and getting paid off later. We might consider calling it, or even 3-betting it, against a 100bb+ stack, but would always fold it against a short or medium stack size.
Relative stack sizes can also help us plan with certain hands like JJ or AQ. Say a player opens the button and we are in the BB with JJ. Well if the player were a short stack then calling would make for a very awkward situation (an over card will hit the flop about 45% of the time and there will be about 3 SPR left). So shifting the hand into either our 3-bet range might be better. The same thing if we have AQ. The small SPR can make this spot very difficult to play optimally if we call, and thus either 3-betting or folding would make for better options.
The Reloader
This may seem very basic, but it is important to be aware of. Players that reload to the stack of their choice tend to have a strategy built for that stack size. For instance, if you see a player with 20bb who loses a pot and reloads to 20bb for the next hand, we can assume they have a strategy built for a 20bb stack. Now, whether that strategy is good or bad is certainly up for debate, but it is important to note.
The same is true about players that buy in for 100bb and constantly reload to 100bb if they lose even a single big blind. They feel that they have a strategy that works for them with that stack size. We should also be falling into this category. The theory is that if we are +EV, then we should have the most amount of money possible to start each hand so that we can maximize our edge. Why start a hand with 87bb if we might miss out on 13bb of value if we get stacks in the middle? We should make sure to reload our stack (most big poker sites have auto-reloading options) to create the most +EV environment for us.
Pay special attention to players that don't reload. The players that buy in for an arbitrary number and play until it is either gone or until they are done playing, are players we should keep our eye on. These players tend to have very little strategy for any specific stack size, and tend to be very bad. If we see players with random stack sizes we can usually assume they are fish and treat them as such. It is a nice way to quickly spot bad players, so make sure to attack them whenever possible.
The Preflop HUD Stats
The layout and statistics in our HUD is a very personal part of our game. Different players with different play styles will be more interested in certain stats over others. A LAG player might be interested in stats that revolve around knowing how often a player folds to preflop pressure. A TAG player might be interested in stats that revolve around knowing how often a player calls with worse hands preflop. In this section we will look at some stats we definitely want on our HUD, and also explore some other stats that can aid our preflop game.
Hands. Sample size is always very important. The more hands we have on a player, the more “real” we can assume their stats are. (Read “The Quick Inference” section below for a more in depth look at how we can use sample size)
VPIP. This is the measure of how many hands a player played by putting money into the pot voluntarily. So if a player checks their option from the BB and never puts a cent in the pot, that doesn't count as VPIP. This very basic stat gives us an idea of how many pots this player is getting involved in, and color coding it for quick analysis is a good idea.
PFR. This is the measure of how many hands a player is raising preflop. PFR should always be taken in the context of VPIP. If a player has a 15% PFR, that means something entirely different if the player has a 55% VPIP or a 17% VPIP. Color coding this stat is also a good idea so as to quickly get an idea of a person's player type.
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AF. The aggression factor stat can give us an idea of a player's aggressive tendencies. The formula for it is (AF = (Bets + Raises)/Calls). A higher AF implies a player is more likely to bet or raise rather than to call.
ATS. A player's attempt to steal can be very helpful for us. A higher attempt to steal lets us know they are stealing with a higher frequency and that their steal range is inherently weaker. This can also be a decent gauge of a player's positional awareness, as a high ATS implies that they understand the wisdom of playing lots of hands from late position.
Limp/Call. This stat lets us know how often a player limps and then calls a raise preflop. A high limp/call percentage let's us know this player isn't folding to a raise often, and that we should be selective with our isolation range.
3B. The 3-bet percentage is helpful in allowing us to visualize a player's 3-bet range. A higher 3-bet percentage can tell us that this player isn't just 3-betting the strongest of hands. The larger a 3-bet percentage is, the more bluffs they tend to have in their 3-bet range.
Foldv3B. A player's “Fold Facing A 3-bet” stat gives us an idea on how that player proceeds when facing a 3-bet. If a player has a very high Foldv3B, then we know that they only continue with strong hands. But this needs to be taken in context with their VPIP/PFR. If a player who is running 12/6 has a 50% Foldv3B, it is entirely different than a 19/17 having a 50% Foldv3B. The 12/6 is rarely folding when facing a 3-bet because their opening range is so inherently strong.
Resteal. The resteal percentage lets us know how often a player is 3-betting a steal. This is very helpful when trying to visualize a players 3-bet range when we steal and they 3-bet. A higher resteal generally has more air and semi-bluff hands in it, and can help us make better decisions.
FoldvResteal. This lets us know how often a player steals and then folds when somebody resteals. This number needs to be taken into context with ATS. If a player steals rarely, it means their steal range is strong and thus seeing a low FoldvResteal percentage would not be shocking. Players with a large FoldvResteal and an aggressive ATS should be restolen against often.
CB. While a player's continuation bet percentage isn't a preflop stat, it can help us create lines before we even make our preflop action. If we know a player is going to CB almost always, we can call a different range against them than a player who would CB rarely. A player who would CB rarely is perfect for calling often IP and taking the pot away when they check. (Please note that there is a difference between “CB” and “CB in a 3-bet pot.”)
FoldvCB. Again, not a preflop stat, but a player's “Fold Facing Flop CB” is very helpful for our preflop plays. If we see a player has a high FoldvCB, then we know we can play more aggressively because if our play doesn't work preflop, we know it will work with a CB a large percentage of the time. (Please note that there is a difference between “FoldvCB” and “FoldvCB in a 3-bet pot.”)
Pop Up. A pop up is useful for all the detailed information that we don't have space for on our HUD. Detailed information like position specific PFR or 3B can be helpful in creating lines not only preflop, but postflop. Make sure the pop up is organized so finding information is easy in real-time.
The Preflop Stat Correlations
Stats are great as they give us information about our opponents, but stats used in correlation with other stats are even better. Because almost all stats are taken in context of other stats (at least VPIP and PFR), we should always be looking to put more information together by looking at the big pictures available.
VPIP and PFR. These stats are the most important as they converge the quickest. Because of this, we want to glean as much useful information from them as possible. The gap in these two stats can be very telling and help us pinpoint a player type efficiently.
The wider the relative gap between these two stats, the more passivity we will tend to see in the player's game. For instance, take a player who is playing 17/4. We see a large gap between their VPIP and PFR, which leads us to believe they aren't usually raising when they enter a pot. A player who open-limps more than he open-raises is usually more passive in nature. Their passivity also tends to carry over to postflop and we notice more fit-or-fold or calling station tendencies from them.
However, the gap is relative. Take Paul who is 15/12 and Sam who is 22/17. Paul has a 3 point gap in his VPIP and PFR, and Sam has a 5 point gap. Just because Sam's gap is a bit bigger than Paul's does not mean that Sam is less aggressive. In fact, Sam is probably more aggressive because he is playing so many more hands and raising most of them. Remember that everything is relative in poker, especially when making inferences from stats.
Position and PFR. This is an amazing way to great a handle on somebody's exact raising range by position. While we need a bigger sample for this to be more exact, it can help us pinpoint a player's range very quickly. Say we have a player who is 14/12. This is good to know, but it doesn't give us a great idea of his range by position. Let's say we have 400 hands on him and see this is his PFR by position:
EP: 8%
MP: 13%
LP: 22%
SB: 5%
BB: 5%
This let's us know a lot about him. In fact, we can just open up a program like PokerStove and visualize these ranges5. Usually we build a range by starting with QQ+/AK, and then build the pairs down to 22, then start adding things like AQ, KQ, AJ, KJs, etc.
Position and Any Stat. Position is very important for being able to accurately assign ranges given the action of our opponent for a given seat. For instance, being able to see that a player has a large cold call % from the button is very helpful if they call our raise from there. It is also helpful if we see a small 4% cold call from MP. This lets us know that this particular villain is logically setmining, and we can take lines that attack and exploit that.
We can also use this when looking at 3-betting, 4-betting, squeezing, etc. Anytime we can see a more detailed version of how this player plays by position we have an extra edge. This is why we use HUDs and stats. Of course, the more detailed the situation is, the more of a sample size we need for reliability. We can get an idea on 3-betting faster than 4-betting (as players 3-bet more than 4-bet), ideas on PFR faster than squeezing, etc. Make sure we are considering relative importance and sample sizes, and we will be able to put more statistical backing to our range analysis.
ATS and 3-Bet. A player having a high ATS usually implies they are more positionally aware than a player with a small ATS. They understand playing the bulk of their hands from late position as opposed to early position, and they attempt to take advantage of stealing situations. This also means they are more likely to recognize a steal attempt, and thus more likely to attack it with a weak hand. So ATS, coupled with 3-bet, can help us put their range together more precisely than just using the 3-bet percentage alone.
Now, if we have a big enough sample on a player, we can use their resteal percentage to more correctly judge their restealing frequency and range. But, if we have a smaller sample size, we can use ATS + 3-bet to visualize their actions and range. Say we have two players, Jake and Bill. Jake is a 15/13 with an ATS of 38% and a 3-bet of 4%. Bill is also a 15/13, but with an ATS of 15% and a 3-bet of 4%.
5 It should be noted though that programs like PokerStove tend to favor Broadway combos before pairs, which isn't exactly true when we look at a player's actual ranges.
We notice they both have the same VPIP, PFR, and 3-bet percentage, but a wildly different ATS. And say we steal from the button, the SB folds, and we face a 3-bet from either of them. Well, Jake has a high ATS. He understands stealing, and thus understands that you are probably stealing. Because of this, his range is probably a bit more polarized. He will 3-bet hands like QQ+ of course, but will flat call things like KQ or TT that he knows are ahead of our range.
Bill, on the other hand, is less aware of the stealing game. We can presume that his lower ATS suggests that he would only raise from a steal position if he had a strong hand, and thus he should believe
we would do the same. This actually changes his 3-bet range. He only plays the strongest of his range, and thus his 3-bet range would not have hands like 33 or A4s in it, it would be comprised of things like JJ or AQ (making for a very depolarized range).
So while they both have the same VPIP, PFR, and 3B, they actually create ranges differently. This information can help us create a 4-bet/defend strategy and also to understand their thought processes in this, and other, situations.
Limp/Call and FoldvCB. This is a great combination of stats to use when isolating players. If a player has a high limp/call, then we know that they are going to continue a lot of the time when we isolate them. If we see the same person has a low FoldvCB, then we know that they are going to call the preflop raise a lot and call the CB a lot. This would mean we would need a stronger hand to isolate with because a raise/CB line won't pick the pot up, so we have to set ourselves up with a hand that can play well postflop.
Dynamic Full Ring Poker Page 8