CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH DIRECT RULE MIGHT BE INTRODUCED AND POLICY ASSUMPTIONS
3. Direct Rule might be introduced because it appeared to be the only way to stop the security or general political situation getting out of hand, or because Her Majesty’s Government wished to introduce a particular policy in an effort to get round a political stalemate in Northern Ireland itself, or for a combination of both these reasons. The major purpose of Direct Rule would probably be to prevent further deterioration in the overall position. If, however, the worst were over, and the security situation had become sufficiently stable for it to be generally recognised by both Protestants and Catholics that a major revival of IRA activity was unlikely in the immediate future, the main object of taking further power into Westminster’s hands would be to introduce new policies designed to produce a longer-term solution to the general political problems of the province. In either case, it would be each Community’s expectation of what would accompany and follow Direct Rule, rather than the measure itself, which would govern their reactions.
The Assumptions
4. We take it that, in introducing Direct Rule, Her Majesty’s Government would be guided by the following assumptions –
i. The efforts of the security forces against the IRA would continue under Direct Rule as long as the IRA’s campaign of violence lasted; action against Protestants would be taken if their reaction was a violent one.
ii. The search for a solution would continue on the basis that an active, permanent and guaranteed role must be found for the minority in the life and public affairs of the province.
iii. If the North and South wished to form a united country Her Majesty’s Government would not obstruct that solution. Reunification would be acknowledged as an honourable and legitimate aim, but one which could only be achieved by consent of the people of the North.
iv. Direct Rule would be a temporary measure until such time as other arrangements could be made.
We further assume that these points would be made in the public statement issued at the time of the introduction of Direct Rule, which would also explain the working arrangements.
The Current Contingency Plans for Direct Rule
5. These provide for a Minister (or the Governor) to be vested with full authority for all existing responsibilities of the Northern Ireland Government. He would exercise this authority through existing departmental machinery, including the civil service departments in Belfast, supported by a suitable staff of his own. It might be necessary to introduce personnel from Britain, possibly even on a large scale.
PROBABLE FIRST REACTIONS TO THE INTRODUCTION OF DIRECT RULE
The Current Protestant Mood
6. There is a degree of general recognition among Protestants that it is now impossible to return to the system which prevailed hitherto. The Protestant position has been eroded by the increasing involvement of Westminster and the gradual Unionist retreat before pressure for reform. The successes scored by the Army have not lifted Protestant spirits as much as might have been expected and many seem cautious and uncertain about the future, including the future viability of Stormont. At the same time the continued level of violence may just possibly be beginning to make some see the need for a negotiated settlement with the Catholics rather than violent measures against the IRA whenever they reassert themselves. While unemployment has been a constant factor in the lives of many, and a relatively modest increase or decrease is not therefore likely greatly to affect the mood of Protestant workers, many of the middle class are worried about the economic implications of a continuance of the present situation. The middle class, moreover, together with an increasing number of the working class, are weary of violence and disenchanted with the present politics and politicians of Northern Ireland. These people feel that if changes are not made, the present type of violent campaign will recur in a few years even if the IRA should be defeated now. They are not clear about what changes are needed, and many look to increasing integration with the South through the EEC to provide a long-term answer, but the fact that the need for change is seen, and that men like Boal and Paisley are beginning to discuss, however obliquely, the political nature of Ireland as a whole, is a sign of hope.
The Overall Protestant View
7. Most Protestants would see Direct Rule as putting an end to their position as the permanently dominant power in Northern Ireland. They would therefore attach the highest importance to a pledge by Her Majesty’s Government that integration with the South could take place only in accordance with the will of the majority in the North and also to a continued security effort to give substance to that pledge. Nevertheless, many Protestants would fear that Direct Rule was a first step towards reunification. Their basic aim has been to preserve what they see as the Protestant way of life and their basic fear that this would be impossible in what they regard as a theocratic Republic. So far this has meant keeping power in Protestant hands, the continued dominance of the Unionist Party and the prevention of those who wish to alter the status of Northern Ireland from achieving or sharing power. If the nature of the Republic were to change, in particular so as to remove elements in the constitution which give the Roman Catholic Church a special position, the idea of reunification might become more acceptable to Protestants. At present, however, they believe the only way of preserving their identity is to keep power in their own hands. Rule from Westminster in whatever form would breach this safeguard. Moreover, there is widespread scepticism among Protestants about the ability of Whitehall/Westminster to match the wiles of the Irish Catholics, North or South, as well as uncertainty about the will of Her Majesty’s Government to support the Protestant case.
General Protestant Reactions
8. Protestant reactions to the introduction of Direct Rule in hypothetical circumstances are inherently hard to assess, and our information about their moods and resources remains scanty. It is probable that the nature and extent of their immediate reaction would be largely determined by 2 things –
a. the security situation at time of its introduction;
b. their confidence that Her Majesty’s Government would stand by their pledge about reunification with the South embodied in the 1949 Act.
These two considerations might interact. If the security situation were bad and the IRA claimed that the introduction of Direct Rule was a victory which would be followed by more violence and eventual reunification, then there would be a danger that the Protestants might, whatever Her Majesty’s Government said, believe the IRA claim and react with violence in the first place against the Catholics but possibly also against the security forces. If the security situation was good, many Protestants would see no advantage for themselves in the introduction of Direct Rule and might be led by extremist propaganda to believe that it showed Her Majesty’s Government’s intention to go back on its word about reunification. Again violence might be the result. The Protestant reaction would probably be calmest if Direct Rule were introduced at a time when IRA violence had ceased but their capacity for violence remained unimpaired and there seemed a high risk of its resurgence in the not too distant future. In these circumstances the Protestants would probably be ready to wait and see what occurred.
9. Should Direct Rule be introduced in circumstances where Protestants reacted violently, there is reason to believe that any armed resistance to the security forces that they offered would probably be of manageable proportions, provided that Her Majesty’s Government could bring home to them that there was no question of their being reunited with the South against their will. The Protestants have arms, and an organisational nucleus in the Ulster Special Constabulary Association and the Orange Order. The existence of the vigilante groups and recent Protestant restraint shows organised discipline and control. The UDR contains trained men some of whom might join Protestant bands in an emergency. The Protestants would, nevertheless, be reluctant to take on the Army, and so far lack a coherent programme or a leader to rally to in opposition to Direct Rule. There
is no new Carson on the horizon at the moment, and we believe it unlikely that such a leader would emerge in response to Direct Rule. The Protestants could not expect to get much support in Westminster if they resisted Direct Rule forcibly; on the contrary, they might conclude that such resistance might encourage public demands in Britain for the withdrawal of the Army. They would find themselves in a quandary and might see their only practical course of action to lie in the declaration of an independent Protestant Ulster. The idea of UDI has already its emotional attractions for some, but few Protestants would be prepared to take practical steps towards it in the face of opposition from the Army. An economically prosperous and politically stable independent Northern Ireland is virtually impossible to envisage as the end result of defiance of the United Kingdom.
10. Violence is more likely to be triggered off if the circumstances in which Direct Rule was imposed gave colour to IRA propaganda that it was a prelude to early reunification, and led Protestants to believe that it would not preserve their way of life. Although Protestants would be very reluctant to take on the security forces in an attempt to frustrate Direct Rule they could attack the Catholics as an instinctive emotional reaction if driven to desperation, and this would in turn lead to clashes with the security forces. So far as can be judged now, it is unlikely that violent conflict would last for more than a few weeks and improbable that it would be widespread. Even in the worst case, Protestants would be likely to react by destroying capital assets and utilities and in some cases by emigration, together with a civil disobedience campaign, rather than by mounting and sustaining an IRA-type campaign of their own. It is also possible that some at least would decide to come to terms with the South. Many Protestants would in any case believe that the threat of armed opposition, coupled with a civil disobedience campaign, was a better bargaining counter to use with London than actual armed resistance.
The Civil Service and Judiciary
11. In most probable circumstances, the very great majority of the Northern Ireland Civil Service and Judiciary, whatever their regrets for the past and fears for the future, would be likely to co-operate with Westminster. The Court system, however, might be disrupted by refusal of Protestant juries to convict Protestants or by intimidation of witnesses.
The RUC
12. The RUC would find themselves in a more difficult position than the Civil Service or Judiciary. Some senior members could well take early retirement. Whatever the circumstances the RUC would be likely to remain a cohesive force and to continue to play its part in maintaining Law and Order. But we believe that if Direct Rule were introduced at a time when most Protestants failed to see its justification, the RUC would be less ready to co-operate with the security forces. The effect of this could be serious, particularly in the Intelligence field, as it would be likely to coincide with the need to devote more effort to the Protestant target while maintaining coverage of the Catholics.
The Catholics
13. Catholic demands from many quarters have widened in scope since 1969 and now include, as a minimum, the destruction of Stormont and an end to the Unionist Party’s monopoly of power. The institution of Direct Rule would arouse hopes among Catholics North and South that these aims were on their way to realisation and would be welcomed as a blow against the Unionist Party. Like the Protestants, however, many Catholics distrust Westminster and believe that Irish affairs ought to be managed by the Irish. They would expect that Her Majesty’s Government would swiftly come forward with proposals for political advance. Meanwhile the civil disobedience campaign would be maintained as a means of pressure on Her Majesty’s Government, particularly for an end to internment.
Catholics and the Security Situation
14. Reactions in the Catholic Community to Direct Rule would be deeply influenced by the security situation and the policies adopted by Her Majesty’s Government to meet it. Many in the Catholic enclaves at present see the Army as operating to repress the Catholics as a Community, not just against the IRA, on behalf of continued Protestant domination. To some degree, they see this as the result of Stormont dictating policy to Westminster and to this extent might regard Direct Rule as providing the chance for a new policy to develop. If Direct Rule had to be imposed when the security position was serious the need for continued action against the IRA would confirm many Catholics in the belief that Her Majesty’s Government are inherently oppressive towards them. The prospects would clearly be better if the security situation were well in hand. The Catholics would in that event expect the cessation of IRA activities to be accompanied by action to remove from Protestant hands the arms which they see as a threat to the Catholic Community.
The Social Democratic and Labour Party
15. The Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) would share the hopes of many Catholics that Direct Rule was the prelude to major political changes. It is doubtful, however, whether the Party would be prepared to take or respond to any immediate constructive initiative following its introduction. The SDLP is in some disarray and does not have a consistent policy.
The IRA
16. The Brady IRA have always welcomed the prospect of Direct Rule as heralding the “final round” with British imperialism. Their hope would be to exploit the situation through violence, keeping their hold on their supporters by the use of intimidation where necessary. They might be tempted to extend violence to Great Britain. If trouble were to develop between the security forces and Protestant mobs this would rebound to the operational advantage of the IRA.
17. The Goulding leadership are less disposed to violence than the Bradyites and have spoken against the prospect of Direct Rule on the grounds that it would “reduce democracy”. Their long-term aim is to achieve positions of influence through existing political bodies and then to overthrow the system from within by violence if necessary, thus ushering in the “People’s Republic”. The Goulding IRA have been heavily involved in the civil disobedience campaign and would probably wish to concentrate on stepping up this rather than on attacking the security forces. They would be the more disposed to take this line, and might persuade some Brady supporters to follow them, if the security situation had become stabilised and there was a risk that militant IRA action could alienate the Catholic Community by putting at risk the chances of political advance through negotiation with Her Majesty’s Government and Protestants. They, also, would continue to maintain cohesion using intimidation where necessary.
The Republic
18. Lynch would welcome Direct Rule if he believed it to be the prelude to radical change in the North. His long-term aim is, and will continue to be, reunification, perhaps under a new constitution. He and other Ministers have spoken in vague terms since 1969 about the need for radical changes in the constitution and laws of the Republic to accommodate a substantial non-Catholic minority. Lynch has proposed inter-party talks in Dublin about what those changes might be. In the short term Lynch wants first the abolition or complete transformation of the present Stormont system (without which step, he believes, the minority can have no confidence that they will never again be subjected to a permanent Unionist regime): secondly, some public hint by Her Majesty’s Government that they look in the long term towards reunification: and thirdly a change of emphasis on the security front from military action against the IRA to an attempt to win back the confidence of the minority by demonstrating the impartiality of Her Majesty’s Government. This Lynch believes to entail not merely the abolition of the present Stormont system, but changes in the present policies of internment, cratering and arms searches. Lynch’s aims are shared by all parties in the Republic and are unlikely to change. Lynch has a strong political interest in seeing the present situation brought to an end: it weakens his own position as against the extremists in his own party and outside; it threatens the spread of violence, perhaps involving Irish Security Forces, along the Border; and it is already starting to bring about a deterioration in the internal situation in the Republic which must eventually endanger
the democratic system. Above all, he believes that the IRA cannot be defeated purely by military means. In principle, therefore, Lynch would probably be prepared to welcome (and later support) Direct Rule provided that it satisfied, or promised to satisfy, his major short-term aims.
19. We cannot be sure what sort of Government might follow if Lynch were to go. But it is probable that it would be either less effective or less accommodating.
Attitudes Once Direct Rule Has Been Introduced
20. While Direct Rule could provide a breathing space it will not, by itself, do much more, and the breathing space would be likely to be short. Both Catholics and Protestants would see it as important not so much in itself but in what they believe it would lead to. If no major political initiative were taken fairly soon after its introduction the disillusionment currently felt by most Catholics with Westminster would deepen, especially if operations against the IRA continued. Neither Community, in effect, is likely to trust Westminster for long and while Direct Rule could provide the opportunity for radical change by removing the Unionists from power at least temporarily, the chance could be a fleeting one and its advent could be judged only according to moods in the province at the time. An Annex discusses the reactions of people in Northern Ireland to the main courses of action which they believe Her Majesty’s Government might take following the introduction of Direct Rule, depending on what Her Majesty’s Government says at the time.
ANNEX TO JIC(A)(7l) 54
WHAT MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH TO FOLLOW DIRECT RULE
Spying on the World Page 42