‘Lars, is that the Gulf Stream problem we spoke about at the dinner we had after the Masters?’ said Sean.
‘Sure is. One and the same,’ replied Lars.
Benny paused ahead of revealing the main reason the Norwegian Government had decided to fund and support Project Masters.
‘The Gulf Stream moves a prodigious amount of water– more than 5.6 million cubic metres every second – and it is very sensitive to changes in water density. The conveyor belt effect means that, as it reaches cooler waters in the North Atlantic, it sinks into abyssal depths and flows southwards as the lower limb of the conveyor. However, if significant volumes of meltwater off the Greenland Ice Sheet mix with saltwater, this reduces the density of the flow and can, and it appears has, stopped some of the columns of water that return south to warmer waters. What concerns me is not only the increasing evidence that the off-flow from the ice sheet is accelerating, but the volumes of freshwater are such that it would not take too much more for the Gulf Stream effect to slow down and eventually stop.’
The researchers and the scientists in the room deduced the practical consequences immediately.
‘Sorry, but what does all this mean?’ Sean was a bit slow this morning, despite his on-going consumption of double espressos. He had not grasped what Benny was saying.
Benny concluded his briefing.
‘If the western boundary current of the Gulf Stream pumping mechanism stops because of the release of huge quantities of ice-melt off the Greenland Ice Sheet, then Norway, Iceland and the British Isles will become a frozen tundra. The ice cover will gradually extend southwards to cover all of Northern Europe, as it did around twenty thousand years ago. We need to know not if, but when, this phenomenon will start to impact on our climates and economies. The Norwegian Government is most concerned that Project Masters delivers the goods so to speak. Sean, your golf balls may provide us with the insights that are urgently needed to help us put a timeline on our adaptation preparations.’
And if the golf balls fail to perform …? Sean thought to himself. He felt a deep sense of foreboding. He had not fully appreciated the enormity of what the researchers were seeking to prove. The stakes were truly high.
Holland 2
Just after dawn the Holland 2 was launched into the blue-grey waters off the stern of the RV Celtic Explorer. The ROV crew expertly positioned the umbilical tether. They knew if it twisted the ROV would have to be retrieved.
Its thrusters were controlled by Paul McCrossan who used the joysticks like a professional gamer. Once the ROV was in position any variation from that position was indicated by the sensors. Sitting in front of several display screens, McCrossan drove the ROV as if he were onboard it. His job was to deliver a payload to a predetermined location and once there, to execute certain tasks. In this case to test the salinity and temperature of the columns of seawater that were the motors of the Gulf Stream.
Seated close behind him, two technicians monitored the ROV’s vital functions.
The ROV deck crew had completed standard pre-dive safety operating procedures on dozens of occasions. The day before the ROV had been given a full physical examination. All the equipment: the frame, specialist instruments, cameras, communications and the tether were tested. One or two technical adjustments had been made. All systems had been tested and cross-checked and double cross-checked. It was expensive to make a mistake. A shorter checklist was completed in the period immediately before the ROV was expertly winched into the water using the research vessel’s Triplex crane.
The surface directed ROV was capable of descending to two thousand metres. It was the pride and joy of the Irish Marine Institute since its purchase for €2 million a year before. It gave marine research an entirely new dimension. The biggest advantage was its advanced submersible technologies. It was chock-full with the latest gadgetry. It had successfully been deployed on a variety of research tasks: hydrographic tests, fishing surveys, seabed mapping and recovery tasks.
With the support of the Chief Engineer, Paul McCrossan had set the coordinates for the dive. With his team, he had also prepared the scientific instruments that were ready to detect the smallest changes in the salinity of the ocean and the speed of the currents. He was especially pleased with his innovation in assembling and installing electro-connectivity devices that didn’t require a flow of water to take a reading. These could – in theory at least – measure the salinity of water by testing the electrical conductivity of the water. While the sealed bottle canisters had worked well near the surface, this was the first time they had been tried at significant depth while secured to an ROV. He spent a lot of time ensuring the devices were correctly calibrated and that the stainless-steel electrodes were cleaned with pure alcohol to improve performance.
‘What do you think we’ll find?’ asked Patricia Treacy, one of Tony Doherty’s colleagues from the University of Maynooth, whose job it was to analyse the salinity test readings.
She stood at the science desks that were to the rear of the bridge. The Chief Scientist and other researchers were also present to observe the first findings of the salinity tests. An array of data monitors lit up the room as the ROV descended with the vessel’s tethering providing power and communications links through a fibre optic cable.
‘To be honest, despite what we’ve been told, the satellites can’t give us reliable data,’ replied Doherty. ‘The water surface temperature has dropped. That’s certain. A somewhat similar phenomenon happened ten thousand years ago when sea ice was found as far as the north of Spain. In terms of the earth’s geology that was yesterday! Back then the Canadian ice fields melted and burst into the North Atlantic at what is now the Gulf of St Lawrence. Imagine the consequences if we find a comparable modern-day phenomenon is already so advanced as to be unstoppable. I can’t begin to imagine the consequences if the pace of melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its frontal glaciers accelerates.’
The Chief Scientist intervened. ‘Patricia, I should know, but please refresh me on the basics of these salinity tests that we’re going to conduct.’
Gilmore wasn’t in any way embarrassed to display a gap in his scientific knowledge.
She explained, ‘The two largest dissolved components in seawater are chlorine and sodium. The total of these dissolved salts is expressed as salinity, which can be calculated from conductivity and temperature readings. What we’re looking for are variations from the normal ratio expressed as the electrical conductivity of a standard concentration of potassium chloride solution. In other words, where meltwater mixes with saltwater this should be measurable by means of passing an electrical current flow through the seawater. One of the new kits we installed does just that. However, this far south of the main source of fresh water – the Greenland Ice Sheet – and given the vast expanse of the ocean, I wouldn’t expect to find any major changes. Does that make sense?’
Gilmore nodded. He knew that the most important thing a scientist needed to know was what it was that they didn’t know.
Treacy continued her lecture to Ireland’s Chief Scientist.
‘Finding these chimneys or columns of dense saltwater that are up to a kilometre across is the first task. Not only do they plunge suddenly and rapidly, but they move randomly between Labrador, Greenland and the British Isles. But find them we must. That’s where the satellites’ thermal imagery helps us, as subtle differences in surface and sub-surface water temperature can be detected. We’re at a location where the British Skynet 6 satellite has detected that water may be somewhat less saline. We need to observe and test the salinity of the seawater at different levels below the surface and should its descent slow down at what pace. If a dramatic reduction in this conveyor belt effect is found in multiple locations, it could be a long hard winter very soon.’
Gilmore understood. ‘The geography schoolbooks will have to be re-written if the Gulf Stream decides to pack it in.’
&nbs
p; Treacy continued, ‘We just assumed that the Gulf Stream would always be there. This ocean river moves waters poleward at a greater rate than the combined flows of the Amazon and the Mississippi rivers. Its flow has been threatened: that’s for sure. It is a sort of meteorological battlefield, except everyone is on the losing side. We and the four other marine research vessels being deployed on a similar exercise have to provide the evidence.’
They both turned to the monitors on the science desks with a growing sense of foreboding.
The ROV was easy to control in expert hands. It was in stationary mode ninety metres astern of the ship at a depth of six hundred metres. The instrumentation showed there was a small but noticeable reduction in salinity levels. As the ROV moved away at the same depth this reduction was also marked by red graphic lines on the main monitor.
‘Let’s go down another two hundred metres,’ instructed Gilmore.
McCrossan responded. As the ROV dropped the intensity of the readings on the monitor continued to show a falling level of salinity and, more worryingly, a fall in the speed of the dropping column.
For the next three hours Holland 2 was guided to greater depths within a circumference of half a kilometre.
The end result was that the water column that was being observed disappeared. They had real time evidence for the first time that one of the columns sustaining the Gulf Stream was on the point of collapse. Once the ROV was retrieved and safely secured on deck the water samples collected were transferred to the dry lab. Soon after, Treacy was able to confirm the other data. The salinity levels of the water column, especially near the surface, were a fraction of what would normally be expected.
A conference call was scheduled for that afternoon with scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Cape Cod. These scientists tracked the Gulf Stream as it progressed into the North Atlantic. Over a year before, it had been their sub-sea buoys that had picked up small but subtle changes in the ocean’s patterns at levels of latitude nearest to Greenland. This intelligence prompted a request to NASA to use its array of TOPEX (topographic experiment) satellites to measure the thermal differences in the North Atlantic Drift’s rings, loops and splits.
The Gulf Stream had always split into two after it crossed the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, a chain of volcanic mountains that ran the length of the Atlantic Ocean. It was the width and pace of the northern current, the North Atlantic Drift that continued past Iceland towards Ireland and Scotland that had everyone at Woods Hole preoccupied.
The conference call began with the ROV’s scientists standing in a circle at the rear of the bridge.
‘What do you read from the data?’
The question was directed to Tony Doherty.
Patricia Treacy had asked an open question, but she knew what the data meant. Out of courtesy to her Irish colleagues, she didn’t wish to impose her view but wanted to encourage a discussion.
Doherty had struggled earlier to cope with the consequences of the rapidly changing data sets. He spoke with an edge in his voice.
‘The column we analysed appears to be almost non-functional. What concerns me most is that its flow has changed so dramatically from what our sensors had been telling us a month ago.’
‘Are we in trouble?’ asked Gilmore. He had spotted the body language of his colleagues while observing their monitors as the data built up a complete picture over the past hours. The more experienced scientists seemed to be resigned to the findings. It was as if they expected the results that had been confirmed.
‘We can’t be sure Professor,’ said Doherty.
A Woods Hole scientist spoke. ‘One bad outcome can’t be described as a pattern by any stretch of the imagination’.
‘We reckon there are over thirty columns like the one we’ve just analysed across five hundred square kilometres of ocean,’ said Treacy. ‘This one is near the southern limit of the North Atlantic Drift. We need to get data from columns north of us. As you know, the Brits are working on this area. I guess we should proceed to review the limited information we have on our next priority location.’
Gilmore interjected. ‘We’ll prepare the Holland 2 for another dive once the deck crew have caught up on their sleep.’
‘Yes to that,’ said McCrossan as he faked a yawn.
‘I hope our need to move further north coincides with whatever the others want to do with the PLU submersible,’ said Doherty. It was a statement and not as a question.
‘Please send our data findings to the British research vessel located north of us,’ instructed Gilmore.
‘Will do, Professor,’ replied Doherty.
Gilmore left the room and retired to his cabin. He called the Minister on his encrypted mobile to brief him about the findings and their implications. That done, he picked up the phone on his desk and dialled an internal number.
‘Barry, Gerdy here. Whiskey?’
‘Sure. My room in five.’
CHAPTER 5
La Cumbrecita
Over dinner with their Aunt Margarida and Uncle Damian, Claudine and Maria discussed the events that had literally and figuratively rocked them earlier. They sat on the wide veranda as the red rimmed sun was setting to the West. The tapas had hardly been touched. The wine was poured but the glasses were full. Nobody had an appetite. They all felt the tension.
The family’s villa was a basic two-story over basement wooden structure with a large living-cum-dining room but, more importantly, it had a wraparound veranda that caught the sun from dawn to dusk. Called Haciende del Molino, it was located high on a hill near the townland of Fuencaliente at an elevation of over nine hundred metres. All the houses on the island were painted with almost luminous colours. Their hacienda was bright turquoise. The garden was full of exotic plants, fruits, herbs and vegetables, their colours contrasting with the dominant hue of the walls.
From the veranda there were stunning views of the abandoned lighthouse, with its red and white tower, and of the vast expanse of the island’s black ash beaches along the southern coastline. However, enjoying the scenery was far from their minds.
The girls had spent all their summers since their early teens holidaying on La Palma with their aunt and uncle. They were the daughters they never had. There was a special close and trusting bond between the four diners. Margarida and Damian were very protective of their young charges.
Margarida broke the contemplative silence that would have befitted a closed order of monks.
‘Did you know your late granddad was in the Guardia Civil and helped with the evacuations of the local villages around us when the Teneguia volcano erupted in October 1971? He told me that they got a lot of warning. There were minor local tremors for months before the main eruption. When the lava started to flow it was gradual and took place at remote locations. This house, and the others around us, were built afterwards as this site wasn’t affected. I hope we’re still in a safe zone.’
‘Aunt Margarida, don’t fret,’ said Maria. ‘While volcanoes are still fairly unpredictable, we should get plenty of warning signs before anything major happens. The science of volcanology has improved quite a lot since 1971. I don’t expect anything too dramatic to occur any time soon. Here on La Palma there are dozens of remote monitors scattered across the mountains with arrays located on what are considered be the locations at most risk. That’s what Simon and Ros are doing: keeping us safe. You should also know that NASA has a satellite capacity to provide real time thermal images and data, so we’ll know if matters are going to get out of control.’
‘Sure, I could do the same with my latest toy,’ chipped in Damian. ‘I just got a top of the range DJI Phantom ready-to-fly GoPro camera drone with great camera and video resolution and a flight range of fifty kilometres. I bought a thermal imagery add-on feature too, not realising that I would be using it so soon. I told Simon and Ros earlier that I can help if they need an extra se
t of eyes. I could also use the older drone, but its range is more limited.’
‘Let’s talk about the practicalities once we finish this excellent Albariño. The vineyards of Galicia sure know how to produce a world class product.’ Margarida tried to lighten the serious tenor of the conversation.
The conversation switched quickly to the subtleties of La Palma’s wines, but Margarida soon brought it back to business.
‘Damian, you never told me about your new purchase. I hope it wasn’t too expensive.’ Margarida as guardian of the family’s purse didn’t like surprises.
Damian had anticipated this interrogation and had his lines well-rehearsed. ‘No need to concern yourself, Cherie. It’ll pay for itself within months. I intend to fly over all the island’s walking routes and do a commentary describing what our tourists can expect to see. I’ll start with the GR 131. Once we upload these videos on our website, we’ll become the go-to guides that everyone will want to hire.’
‘Uncle Damian, that’s a brilliant idea. Young people like to research their holiday experiences online. Your recordings of the top hiking trails will attract a lot of attention. Can I be your marketing manager?’
‘Maria, I will appoint you Chief Executive Officer once we make our first million!’
Margarida yawned. She was exhausted and troubled by the day’s happenings. ‘Time to stop daydreaming. I’m off to bed. Good night.’
In the morning over breakfast the conversation was all about family matters: favourite uncles, doddery aunts, black sheep and their mischiefs, and who would inherit what from an eccentric great uncle. Inevitably, however, the situation on La Palma was soon back on the agenda.
Damian and Margarida were booked to escort walking groups over the coming days and debated long and hard before deciding to go ahead but choosing the least risky routes.
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