by Bobby Akart
From the Associated Press: "Sandy Hook Shooter Comes from Prepper Family."
From CBS: "Local 'Preppers' Stock Up For Improbable US Ebola Crisis."
From Washington Post: "'Preppers' Convinced Yellowstone Volcano Spells Doom."
But, what if the Preppers are right?
What if?
The Economy Collapses
The United States economy can collapse as a result of our own government's mismanagement of our national debt or external factors such as a global financial meltdown, an attack on the US Dollar, and other predictable events. Why do you think the Federal Reserve is so frightened of raising interest rates despite apparent underlying inflation data? Our economy is a house of cards. We are just a few steps away from a collapse of the dollar and hyperinflation.
History is replete with the rise and fall of empires. Are Americans so arrogant, or oblivious, to realize that we are in a stage of decline and collapse? Some of the signs of decline include a downward cultural spiral, an over-reliance on government and the inability to protect the integrity of a nation's borders. Sound familiar?
All empires collapse eventually. There have been no exceptions in the history of humanity.
None. All empires end when a more vigorous empire defeats them—or when their financing runs out.
What if?
Escalation of Global Conflict into a World War
Let's compile a list of the strongest, most dangerous bad actors on the world geopolitical stage:
Russia ~ China ~ North Korea ~ Iran ~ Syria ~ ISIS ~ Al Qaeda
What do these seven geopolitical foes have in common? They both hate and disrespect the United States! Think of the Seven Deadly Sins: Lust, Gluttony, Greed, Sloth, Wrath, Envy, Pride. All of these relate to the attitudes of these bad actors towards the United States. Is it that far-fetched that one or more of these could band together to bring the mighty United States of America to its knees? Remember the words of the great Chinese General Sun Tzu — the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Except ISIS and Al Qaeda, the five nations comprising this group considers each other allies.
The assassination of an Archduke precipitated World War I, but the underlying causes were geopolitical tensions in Europe. Twenty million people died during the war, followed by another seventy million post-war due to famine and the Spanish Flu. Are we naive to think that something like this couldn't happen again? Geopolitical tensions – sound familiar?
Tensions arising from invasions of other sovereign territories around the world were the principal cause of World War II. It escalated into a global conflict with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Today, Russia has invaded Ukraine. China prepares to exert more of its dominance in Asia. ISIS is taking over large parts of the Middle East to form an Islamic State. Some might say— not our problem. But what if one of the bad actors mentioned above decide to make it our problem with an attack on the heartland along the lines of Pearl Harbor? Is that so implausible? Remember 9/11?
What if?
America is Attacked by Terrorists
We are vulnerable to attack because of our desire to provide freedom to all Americans, but especially because of political correctness. We are not allowed to use racial profiling to identify a potential terrorist. Our southern border is a sieve. We refuse to ban flights from Ebola-stricken countries for fear of being labeled racist. Our military has been weakened by prolonged wars and budget cuts.
Our enemies can come at us in so many ways. A day does not go by without news of a cyber-terrorism incident. What if these cyber attacks are just a series of trial runs before one massive, coordinated attack on our banking, governmental and utility servers? An electromagnetic pulse delivered by a nuclear warhead or a series of electromagnetic pulse weapons fired at strategic locations across the country could bring down our power grid. For the first time, Russia has more deployed nuclear assets than the United States does. Can you say outnumbered?
What if?
Widespread Pandemic or BioTerror
Our government was intent on calming the fears of the American people as to the likelihood of the Ebola virus hitting US soil. The presence of the Ebola virus came as a result of bringing Ebola-stricken health care workers into the country. Keep in mind, that these were people who were experts in treating Ebola and who were provided all of the necessary equipment to prevent contracting Ebola. As the CDC was calming our fears, a Nigerian national flew into Dallas with Ebola, potentially infecting hundreds and ultimately dying while in the government's care.
The question has to be asked—What is wrong with a little fear amongst the masses?
Fear is a great motivator. It is designed to be compelling, so that we take survival action in the form of fight, flight, or freeze.
In 1763, the British fortress at Fort Pitt in Delaware was under siege. Letters were exchanged between British General Jeffrey Amherst and Colonel Henry Bouquet as to proposed defensive tactics.
General Amherst suggested: "Could it not be contrived to send the Smallpox among those disaffected tribes of Indians?"
Weaponized smallpox. Is it not plausible that our enemies could weaponize Ebola? In the name of Jihad, is it not possible that one would contract the Ebola virus and enter the United States with the intention of creating a pandemic? The news outlets that raise these possibilities are labeled fear mongers and racists. But have you noticed that Amazon is selling out of particulate masks and other bio-hazard supplies? Fear is a great motivator.
What if?
Near Earth Object – SuperVolcano Eruption – Natural Disaster
Any of the above naturally occurring events could wreak havoc on our power grid, our atmosphere, and our climate. These are not the catastrophic events known only in science fiction movies. There is a historical precedent for them all.
A major earthquake along the New Madrid Fault in the central United States could collapse bridges over the Mississippi River. An earthquake of this magnitude, along the New Madrid happened before in 1811 and 1812. The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is comprised of eight states: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee.
The Wabash Valley Seismic Zone (WVSZ) in southern Illinois and southeast Indiana, together with the East Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) in eastern Tennessee and northeastern Alabama, constitute a significant risk of moderate-to-severe earthquakes throughout the central region of the USA.
Studies indicate that Tennessee will incur the highest level of economic damage and societal impact. According to the Mid-America Earthquake Center, over 300,000 buildings would be moderately or more severely damaged, over 290,000 people would be displaced and well over 70,000 casualties would be expected. Total direct economic losses would surpass $56 billion. Those results focus on the immediate effects of the massive earthquake itself. As preppers, we consider the additional impact in the form of societal unrest — looting, death from sickness, and murder.
The States of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Illinois would also incur significant losses. Studies indicate a potential direct economic loss would reach over $150 billion.
The indirect financial loss due to business interruption and loss of market share is at least as high, if not far greater than, the direct economic losses. Scientists and economists predict the total financial impact of a series of NMSZ earthquakes would be likely to constitute the highest loss due to a natural disaster in U.S. history.
The economic losses and societal impact for each state should be considered separately. Since each scenario is based on a different hazard, adding results together will not reflect an accurate scenario. It’s hard to gauge the potential loss of life arising from a natural disaster of this magnitude.
After the earthquake, critical infrastructure and lifelines will be heavily damaged and will be out of service for a considerable period. The resulting collapse of the power grid and transportation routes is likely to affect a region much larger than the eight states referenced above. Many hospitals nearest to
the epicenter will not be able to care for its patients. Many of those injured during the disaster will have to be transported outside of the region for medical attention. Moreover, pre-disaster patients will be required to continue their care outside of the area, at fully functioning hospitals.
It is doubtful that the transportation system will be intact. Damage to the transportation system will hinder mass evacuation efforts. First responders will be severely impaired due to police and fire stations throughout the impacted region. Public shelters will be damaged and unusable after the earthquake.
The scenario described for a New Madrid Zone earthquake can be applied to other catastrophic disaster events. Strikes by objects, NEOs, such as asteroids, can be extinction-level events. Likewise, a massive eruption of the Yellowstone SuperVolcano could result in climate change that would alter the entire food production system of the Northern Hemisphere.
What if?
The Deadly Threat of a Coronal Mass Ejection – Solar Flare
A powerful electromagnetic pulse, whether resulting from a nuclear-delivered EMP or a massive solar storm, could collapse the power grid and the critical infrastructure of our nation.
What are solar storms?
Every minute, enormous eruptions of magnetically-charged plasma are emitted from the sun's roiling interior, exploding outward into space. Known as coronal mass ejections, or CME, these moderate solar storms occur fairly regularly and harmlessly, sometimes causing spectacular auroras that illuminate the sky over the North and South poles. But even typically benign solar storms generate energy many times more powerful than our planet’s combined nuclear arsenals.
Is the threat real? Renowned American astronomer, Phil Plait, who is a self-proclaimed skeptic, is known as The Bad Astronomer because of his work in debunking common misunderstandings about space events. "People sometimes ask me if anything in astronomy worries me," says Plait, when asked about the threat of a deadly CME. "Something like this is near the top of the list."
There is good reason to be concerned. A National Academy of Sciences study found there is a twelve percent chance that a monster solar storm will strike Earth within the next decade. A solar event of that magnitude could cause two trillion dollars’ worth of damage in the first year of recovery alone—twenty-times the cost of Hurricane Katrina.
But, what about the human cost? Studies frequently cite economic loss. How would the destruction of the power grid and other critical infrastructure; like the internet, banking, and government be affected? Has such a storm ever hit Earth?
Yes, several times. Imagine our way of life without power for weeks on end, as a result of a massive solar flare striking the Earth. It happened in 1859, in what is commonly referred to as the Carrington Event.
On Sept. 1, 1859, British astronomer Richard Carrington noticed a brilliant solar flare over England. In the days that followed, a succession of coronal mass ejections struck Earth head-on. Auroras illuminated the night sky from Africa to Hawaii. "The light appeared to cover the whole firmament," one Baltimore newspaper reported. "It had an indescribable softness and delicacy." The effects were more than aesthetic. EMPs from the storm caused telegraph systems — known as the Victorian internet — to fail throughout North America and Europe; in some cases, lines sparked and offices caught fire. Otherwise, the damage was minimal.
Nonetheless, for telegraph operators in the Americas and Europe, the experience caused chaos. Many found that their lines were just unusable—they could neither send nor receive messages. Others were able to operate even with their power supplies turned off, using only the current in the air from the solar storm.
From historical reports, one telegraph operator said, "The line was in perfect order, and skilled operators worked incessantly from eight o'clock last evening until one o’clock this morning to transmit, in an intelligible form, four hundred words of the report per steamer Indian for the Associated Press."
Other operators experienced physical danger. Washington, D.C. operator, Frank Royce said, "I received a very severe electric shock, which stunned me for an instant. An old man who was sitting facing me, and but a few feet distant, said that he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead to the sounder."
At the time, the telegraph was a new technology and never experienced technical difficulties of this type. But the story offers an important warning for modern society. The Carrington Event provides evidence of the fragility of electrical infrastructure. Scientific American reported in October of 1859: “The electromagnetic basis of the various phenomena was identified relatively quickly. A connection between the northern lights and forces of electricity and magnetism is now fully established."
This event was long before humanity became utterly reliant on electronics — as it was when history repeated itself 153 years later.
In 1989, a far smaller solar flare sent a pulse of radiation that left six million people in Quebec without power for up to nine hours. Much more alarming, was a solar super storm that barely missed Earth in July 2012. Astronomers say the sun spewed out a huge magnetic cloud that tracked straight through our planet’s orbit. Fortunately, for civilization, the Earth was elsewhere in its path around the sun at the time but had the storm roared through nine days earlier, a worst-case scenario would have occurred. Satellites involved in crucial global communications (including GPS) would have been ruined, large electrical transformers would have been destroyed, and ATMs would have stopped functioning. The internet would have been disabled on a massive scale. Most people wouldn't have been able to flush toilets, which rely on electric pumps.
Three years later, "we would still be picking up the pieces," says astronomer Daniel Baker. "The July 2012 storm was, in all respects, at least as strong as the Carrington Event. The only difference is, it missed."
In a word—TEOTWAWKI—The End Of The World As We Know It.
Over the last one hundred and fifty years, the world’s critical infrastructure has become a more integral part of daily life. In the nineteenth century, telegraphs composed a comparatively small and relatively non-essential part of everyday life. Their successors today—including the electrical grid and much of the telecommunications network—are essential to modern life.
Is the current system any more protected from catastrophic interference than the telegraph of the nineteenth century? Can the power grid handle a terrorist attack, or severe weather events, or a solar storm?
There has never been a real test to prove it, but there is a robust debate about the vulnerability of the power grid. The most dangerous and costly possibilities for major catastrophes, the collapse of the nation’s critical infrastructure, might visit the United States from any number of methods.
One scenario is a repeat of the solar storm as big as the 1859 Carrington Event. A solar event of this magnitude hasn't struck the earth since, although there have been smaller ones. As a result of the Quebec blackout in 1989, there were complications across the interconnected grid and a large transformer in New Jersey permanently failed.
In 2003, residents of the northeastern United States experienced a grid-down scenario. It doesn't take an unprecedented solar flare to knock out power. The combination of a few trees touching power lines, and a few power companies asleep at the wheel, plunged a section of the nation into darkness. The darkness can spread. As the difficulties at Ohio-based FirstEnergy grew and eventually cascaded over the grid, electrical service from Detroit to New York City was lost. The 2003 event was a comparatively minor episode, compared to what might have happened. Most customers had their power back within a couple of days and the transformers were relatively unaffected.
Compare that event with the incident in Auckland, New Zealand. Cables supplying power to the downtown business district failed in 1998. The center of the city went dark. Companies were forced to shutter or relocate their operations outside of the affected area. The local Auckland utility had to adopt drastic measures to move in temporary generators. They even enlisted the assistance of the worl
d's largest cargo plane—owned by rock band U2, to transport massive generators into the area. It took five weeks for the power grid to be fully restored.
There are contrarians. Jeff Dagle, an electrical engineer at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, who served on the Northeast Blackout Investigation Task Force argued, “one lesson of the 2003 blackout is that the power grid is more resilient than you might think.”
The task force investigators pinpointed four separate root causes for the collapse, and human error played a significant role. "It took an hour for it to collapse with no one managing it," Dagle said. "They would have been just as effective if they had just gone home for the day. That to me just underscores how remarkably stable things are."
As awareness was raised by Congress, the National Academies of Science produced a report detailing the risk of a significant solar event. The 2008 NAS report paints a dire picture, based on a study conducted for FEMA and Electromagnetic Pulse Commission created by Congress.
While severe solar storms do not occur that often, they have the potential for long-term catastrophic impacts to the nation’s power grid. Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures. For example, the potable water distribution will be affected immediately. Pumps and purification facilities rely on electricity. The nation’s food supply will be disrupted, and most perishable foods will spoil and be lost within twenty-four hours. There will be immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply, and many of the necessities that we take for granted.
According to the EMP Commission, the effects would be felt for years, and its economic costs could add up to trillions of dollars—dwarfing the cost of Hurricane Katrina. More importantly, the commission’s findings stated a potential loss of life that was staggering. Within one year, according to their conclusions, ninety percent of Americans would die.
But some skeptics say it's the opposite. Jon Wellinghoff, who served as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission—commonly known as FERC, from 2009 to 2013, has sounded the alarm about the danger of an attack on the system. The heightened awareness came as a result of an April 2013 incident in Silicon Valley, California, in which a group of attackers conducted a coordinated assault on an electrical substation, knocking out twenty-seven transformers. FERC points to the fact that the U.S. power grid is broken into three big sections known as interconnections. There is one each for the Eastern United States, the Western United States, and—out on its own—Texas. In fact, the East and West interconnections also include much of Canada and parts of Mexico.