The Wizard and the Prophet2

by Charles C. Mann

  Initial planting: VIET2: 27–32 (“we thought,” 28); N. Borlaug, 1981, “The Phenomenal Contribution of the Japanese Norin Dwarfing Genes Toward Increasing the Genetic Yield Potential of Wheat,” address, 30th Anniversary of the Founding of the Japanese Society of Breeding, Tokyo. Typescript, CIMBPC, B0051-R, 15.

  Borlaug at sea: RFOI: 138–140 (“to DuPont,” 140).

  Second child: VIET2: 32–34 (“I can”), 72–73; Hesser 2010:39–40; Bickel 1974:111–14, 128–30, 157; RFOI: 141–42.

  Borlaug takes over stem-rust project: Bickel 1974:118–19; RFOI: 150.

  Wheat conditions in Bajío: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2015: Cuadro 9.37; Bickel 1974:121–22; Borlaug 1958:278–81, 1950:170–71; Rupert 1951; Borlaug et al. 1950; N. E. Borlaug, 1945, “Wheat Improvement in Mexico,” typescript, CIMBPC, B5533-R. See also, Hewitt de Alcántara 1978: 37–40.

  Farm survey: N. E. Borlaug, 1945, “Annual Survey of Wheat Growing Areas of Mexico for Determination of Severity of Damages Caused by Diseases,” typescript, CIMBPC, B5528-R; idem., 1945, “Outline of the Diseases of Wheat,” typescript, CIMBPC, B5530-R. Borlaug summarizes conditions in Borlaug 1950a:171–73.

  Three men planting 8,600 varieties: VIET2:48–56; Bickel 1974:141–45 (clothing); Paarlberg 1970:5–6; Borlaug 1950a:177–87; RFOI: 155–57, 161–62 (agronomists’ attitudes). Borlaug provided slightly different accounts of the origins and numbers of the seeds. I have mostly followed Borlaug 1950a, as this was written closest to events. In addition to the main two locations, Borlaug tried planting small amounts of wheat at seven other locations in Mexico.

  Borlaug and Bajío poverty: VIET2: 49–53 (quotes, 51); Bickel 1974:110–11 (resistance to new ideas), 143–44 (metal tools); E. J. Wellhausen, oral-history interview with William C. Cobb, 28 Jun–19 Oct 1966, RG 13, Oral Histories, Box 25, Folders 1–2, RFA, 46–48.

  Failure of second crop: VIET2: 54–57 (“to the ground,” 56); N. Borlaug, 1981, “The Phenomenal Contribution of the Japanese Norin Dwarfing Genes Toward Increasing the Genetic Yield Potential of Wheat,” address, 30th Anniversary of the Founding of the Japanese Society of Breeding, Tokyo. Typescript, CIMBPC, B0051-R, 14–15.

  Bajío not enough: Author’s interview, Borlaug; VIET2: 38–39 (“whole populace,” 39 [emphasis mine]), 65; Borlaug 2007:288.

  Shuttle breeding: Hesser 2010:48–51; AOA; LHNB; Borlaug 2007:288–89, 1950a (initial outline); Ortiz et al. 2007; Rajaram 1999; RFOI: 152–88 passim. The name was coined in the 1970s (Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo 1992:14).

  Mexico wheat areas: Borlaug, N., et al.(?) 1955. FA003, Box 87, FF1755, Rockefeller Foundation Photograph Collection, RFA (map); Borlaug and Rupert 1949; N. E. Borlaug, 1945, “El Mejoramiento del Trigo en México,” typescript, CIMBPC, B5529-R.

  Sonora and first visit: Cerruti and Lorenzana 2009 (Table 3, acreage; Map 2, description of area); Borlaug 2007:288–89; Cotter 2003:125; Dabdoub 1980; Bickel 1974:120–27.

  Breeding dogma: Kingsbury 2011:294; Dubin and Brennan 2009:11; Borlaug 2007:289; Perkins 1997:226.

  Harrar-Borlaug argument: VIET2: 67–69; AOA; McKelvey 1987:30–31.

  First season at Sonora: VIET2: 69–73; RFOI: 169–70 (“complete disaster”); Hesser 2010:46–48; Borlaug 2007:289–90; Borlaug 1950.

  Passage across U.S. to Sonora: VIET2:74–78; RFOI: 163–64.

  Conflict with Hayes: RFOI 188; AOA; VIET2:102–03; Borlaug 2007:289; Bickel 1974:180; Hayes and Garber 1921:111, 113, 281–86ff. (e.g., “The field selected for the comparative trials should be representative of the soil and climatic conditions under which the crop will be grown,” 51).

  Borlaug quits: VIET2:104–09, 112–26; RFOI: 166–68 (“walked out,” “own organization!,” “like children!”); AOA; Perkins 1997:228; Bickel 1974:180–84.

  State of plant breeding: Perkins 1998, chap. 3. The Rockefeller University experiment that showed that DNA was the mechanism of heredity was published in 1944 but not widely believed until Watson and Crick showed how DNA could carry genetic information.

  Four times as many genes: Brenchley et al. 2012 estimates wheat has ~95,000 genes. Humans are thought to have 20,000 or fewer (Ezkurdia et al. 2014). Both figures are tentative. Borlaug describes the difficulties in RFOI: 307–8.

  Eye color: White and Rabago-Smith 2011.

  Photoperiodicity mutation: Baranski 2015; Guo et al. 2010 (mutation); Kingsland 2009:299 (discovery, lack of attention); Borlaug 2007 (“serendipity,” 289); Beales et al. 2007; Cho et al. 1993.

  Beginnings of success: VIET2:170–72; Borlaug 1968, Table 1.

  Lodging: Borlaug estimated that “at the time of harvest, 85 percent of all the wheat [was] flat on the ground in the Yaqui Valley” (RFOI: 214).

  15B: VIET2:158–61; Dubin and Brennan 2009:5; Stakman 1957:264; Anonymous 1954:1–3 (“was susceptible,” 2).

  1950 testing, conference: Kolmer et al. 2011; Borlaug 1950b.

  500 researchers: Rockefeller Foundation, Annual Report, 1959:30.

  1951 results: Borlaug et al. 1952.

  All but two: VIET2:189–90; Borlaug 1988:27; Rodríguez et al. 1957:127; Borlaug et al. 1953, 1952; Rupert 1951: Table 9; Borlaug, N.E., et al. 1953. Stem and Leaf Rust Reaction of Wheats in the 1951 International Wheat Nursery when Grown at Mexe, Hidalgo, Mexico in the Summer of 1952. Typescript, CIMBPC (B5564-R).

  Resuscitation of maize program: Emails to author, Lance Thurner; Matchett 2002; Myren 1969.

  Foundation to expand: W. Weaver, Memorandum, 11 Dec 1951, RG 3.1, Ser. 915, Box 3, FF20, RFA (Harrar promoted); W. Weaver, Memorandum, “Agriculture and the Rockefeller Foundation,” 12 Jul 1951, idem; J. G. Harrar, Memorandum, “Agriculture and the Rockefeller Foundation,” 1 Jun 1951, idem; Letter, W. Weaver to J. G. Harrar, 31 May 1951, idem; “Excerpt from Minutes of Meeting of the Advisory Committee on Agricultural Activities,” 19 May 1951, idem.

  Borlaug’s situation, Argentina trip: VIET2:174–76; Baranski 2015:58; Perkins 1997:230; Borlaug 1988:27; Borlaug et al. 1953:10–11 (race 49). Race 49 is genetically close to Race 139; the two are often referred to interchangeably.

  Borlaug and Bayles: RFOI: 198–200; Bickel 1974:197–99 (“with it”).

  Norin 10: Lumpkin 2015; VIET2:181–83, 195; Reitz and Salmon 1968.

  First two Norin 10 trials: VIET2:202–03, 208–09, 224–33; RFOI: 200; Borlaug 1988:27–28. Norin 10 was winter wheat. By early spring, when it flowered, the rest of Borlaug’s test varieties were producing grain. He had nothing to cross it with. Scouring his fields, Borlaug found a single plant, a variety sent by Rupert from Colombia, with a misfiring biological clock; it, too, had late flowers. He was able to use it to pollinate the Japanese plants—only to see rust overwhelm them. By failing to take the variety’s internal calendar into account, he had seemingly wasted all of Vogel’s genetic material.

  Rising yields in Sonora: Cerruti and Lorenzana (2009), Salinas-Zavala et al. (2006), and Hewitt de Alcántara (1978) collect figures from INEGI, FAOSTAT, and the Comisión Nacional del Agua.

  Field day chaos: VIET2:234; RFOI 201–05, 214–16 (“away right there”); Bickel 1974:236–38.

  Borlaug and mills: VIET3:33–34; Borlaug 1988:27–28 (grain problems); Baum 1986:7 (release of better varieties); Bickel 1974:239.

  Package: Borlaug apparently first referred to the “package” in summer 1968 (Borlaug 1968:27); by 1969 it was common parlance at CIMMYT (Myren 1969:439). Borlaug said that “75 to 80 percent” of the package in Mexico was applicable in India and Pakistan, a figure he later applied to other nations (Borlaug 1968:13; Borlaug 1970).

  “Green Revolution”: Speech, W. S. Gaud, 8 March 1968, available at agbioworld.org.

  Victory-lap speech: Borlaug 1968:Table 1 (Mexico), Table 2 (India), 33 (“fellow men”).

  Chapter Four: Earth: Food

  Weaver, Rockefeller, and molecular biology: E. O’Sullivan 2015; Hutchins 2000; Kay 1993 (Weaver coins name, 4); Rees 1987 (Nobels, 504); Priore 1979; “Warren Weaver, 84, Is Dead After Fall,�
� NYT, 25 Nov 1978; Weaver 1970, 1951; Memorandum, Warren Weaver, Translation, 15 Jun 1949, Weaver papers, Ser. 12.1, Box 53, FF476, RFA; Shannon and Weaver 1949.

  “[Vogt’s] strictures?”: Memorandum, Chester Bernard to Warren Weaver, 31 Aug 1948, RG 3.2, Ser. 900, Box 57, FF310, RFA. The two men met that same day, presumably in part to discuss Road (Diary, Warren Weaver, 31 Aug 1948, RG 12, S–Z, Reel M, Wea 1, Frame 8, Box 502–03, RFA). See also Cullather 2010:64–66. Barnard became president on July 1.

  First modern statement: Cullather 2010:66 (Weaver “articulated the post-Malthusian counterargument the foundation would use for the next thirty years”).

  Weaver’s report: Memorandum, W. Weaver, Population and Food, 8 Jul 1953 (orig. 17 Jul 1949), RG 3, Ser. 915, Box 3, FF23, RFA (all quotes). Weaver used the “large” calorie: the energy to raise the temperature of 1 kilogram of water by 1°C (that is, to raise 2.24 pounds of water by 1.8°F). There is also a “small” calorie, used occasionally in chemistry and physics. I use the large calorie in this book.

  80 billion: Weaver thought the estimate was low, because it didn’t include non-solar energy sources and fossil fuels. But these were dwarfed by the energy from the sun, so he set them aside for the purposes of his analysis.

  IngenHousz and photosynthesis: Magiels 2010; Morton 2009 (2007):319–43.

  Story of N: I lifted this subtitle from Hugh S. Gorman’s fine book (2013).

  Humus theory: Jungk 2009; Manlay et al. 2006:4–6; Fussell 1972, chap. 5; Gyllenborg 1770 (1761), esp. 13–17, 21–28, 48–50; Aristotle 1910:467b–468a. Gyllenborg was Wallerius’s student; different editions identify one or the other as author.

  Attacks on humus theory, law of minimum: Jungk 2009; Sparks 2006:307–10; Brock 2002:32–35 (fake dissertation), 74 (taking credit for others’ work), 107–24 (fake experiments), 146–49 (law of minimum), 160–66; Van der Ploeg et al. 1999 (Sprengel); Liebig 1840:64–85 (main objective of farming, 85), 1855 (23–25, law of minimum); Sprengel 1828 (93, law of minimum).

  Nitrogen abundance: Galloway et al. 2003.

  Liebig and N: Gorman 2013:58–63; Brock 2002:121–24, 148–79ff.; Smil 2001:8–16.

  Organic machine: White 1995.

  Liebig fertilizer fiasco (footnote): Brock 2002:120–28, 138–40. The fullest version of Liebig’s scoffing at nitrogen fertilizer is in his third edition (“superfluous,” 213). His switch to the nitrogen camp occurred in 1859 (Liebig 1859:264–66).

  Chilean nitrates: Pérez-Fodich et al. 2014; Gorman 2013:66–69; Melillo 2012; Smil 2001:43–48 (half as explosives, 47).

  Crookes: Morton 2009 (2007):178–82; Smil 2001:58–60; Crookes et al. 1900 (“of the world,” 16; “a few years,” 43; “general scarcity,” 194–95).

  Haber and Bosch: Smil 2001:61–107 (“and hydrogen,” 72; “liquid ammonia,” 81). Haber led what was, in effect, the first national weapons lab. Under his enthusiastic direction, it developed a cyanide gas, Zyklon B, that was used in Hitler’s gas chambers. (Haber and his wife were born into Jewish families, but they converted to Protestantism.)

  Haber-Bosch superlatives: Naam 2013:133 (“can grow”); Melillo 2012 (1930s); Smil 2011b (“world’s population” [updating Smil 2001:157]); Von Laue 1934 (“from air”). See also Morton 2015:193–95.

  Nitrogen downsides: Bristow et al. 2017 (Bengal); Morton 2015:194–201 (biggest problem, 197); Canfield et al. 2010; Galloway et al. 2002; Smil 2001:177–97. See also Guo et al. 2010.

  “cultural movement”: Conford 2001:20.

  McCarrison and Hunza: Wrench 2009 (1938), esp. 28–46, 56–66 (“of cancer,” 33); Vogt 2007:24–25; Fromartz 2006:12–16; Conford 2011:178, 2001:50–53; McCarrison 1921 (“extraordinarily long,” 9).

  New scientific genre: I take these examples from Taubes 2007:89–95. The studies were conducted by Albert Schweitzer, Aleš Hrdlička, A. J. Orenstein, and Samuel Hutton. This kind of work is hard to evaluate, because the subjects typically don’t keep precise personal records and are often related. In addition, it is rarely possible to have control groups.

  McCarrison, Viswanath, Suryanarayana: Viswanath 1953; Viswanath and Suryanarayana 1927; McCarrison and Viswanath 1926. The relative contributions are my interpretation, but Viswanath’s annoyance shimmers from the pages of his articles. My thanks to Ellen Shell for helping me with this section.

  McCarrison on soil: McCarrison 1944 (1936) (“constituted food,” 17; “our needs,” 12).

  Albert Howard: Wrench 2009:153–58; Pollan 2007:145–51; Fromartz 2006:6–12; Conford 2011:95–98, 2001:53–59 (“soil fertility,” 54–55); L. E. Howard 1953: esp. chap. 1; A. Howard 1945:15–22, 151. Howard’s pre-India work focused on the hops plant, used to flavor beer. At the time researchers believed hops were best propagated artificially, by grafting. Howard obtained better results by pollinating with bees. This “amounted to a demand that Nature no longer be defied,” he said. “It was for this reason highly successful” (ibid., 16). Even his critics recognized his centrality, e.g., Hopkins 1948:96, 181.

  Indore process: Howard and Wad 1931: esp. chap. 4.

  “is gold”: Hugo 2000:1086.

  Louise Howard: Oldfield 2004.

  Rule or Law of Return: Manlay et al. 2006:10; Howard 1945 (“human wastes,” 5; “Nature’s farming,” 41); Balfour 1943.

  Howard’s claims: L. E. Howard 1953:26 (“brutality”); A. Howard 1940 (“research organization,” 160; “less and less,” 189; “and mankind,” 220). Louise Howard appears to be quoting from W. J. Locke’s At the Gate of Samaria, a popular novel from 1894.

  Aristocratic, conservative Christians: Conford 2011:327–34, 351–56; 2001:146–63, 190–209, 217; Moore-Colyer 2002 (a study of one organic leader, Rolf Gardiner). Conford lists 73 “leading figures” in the early organic movement (2001: Appendix A). Of these, 27 were deeply religious or spiritual, 18 were either hereditary aristocrats or rich landowners, and 16 were either fervently right-wing or fascist. To be sure, some members were socialists, others were ordinary farmers, and not all were inspired primarily by Howard. Northbourne, for instance, was mainly inspired by Rudolf Steiner and (like Howard) was not a member of the Soil Association (Paull 2014). My thanks to Philip Conford and Oliver Morton for helping me with this section.

  Balfour: Gill 2010 (New Age Christianity, 171–82); Conford 2001:88–89; Balfour 1943 (“each other,” 199).

  North American Christian inspiration: Lowe 2016. One difference is that North American Christian advocates typically focused on preserving rural lifeways rather than agriculture per se.

  Rodale: R. O’Sullivan 2015: chap. 1 (lived longer, 95); Cavett 2007 (“in my life!”); Fromartz 2006:18–21; Conford 2001:100–103; Rodale 1952, 1948 (Hunza).

  Rodale builds empire: O’Sullivan 2015, esp. 18–20, 26–27, 58–59, 222–27 (subscriptions, 32, 88); Northbourne 1940 (“organic,” 59, 103).

  Industry pushes back: O’Sullivan 2015:56–58 (“powder keg,” 18; “Every Bug,” 57); Conford 2011:289–95, 325–26; 2001:38–43; Throckmorton 1951 (“misguided people,” 21); Bowman 1950 (“is no!”).

  Criticisms, defenses of organic viewpoint: Pollan 2007:146–49 (I borrow his descriptor, “airy crumbs”); Hopkins 1948 (“extremist views,” 115); Balfour 1943 (“animal’s body,” 18); Howard 1940 (“and women,” 31; “own being,” 45; “forest humus,” 68; “of Liebig,” 220).

  FAO degradation study: United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization 2011a, Fig. 3.2 (25% is highly degraded, 8% is moderately degraded).

  Organic vs. chemical war: O’Sullivan 2015 (“organiculturalist,” 56); Picton 1949:127 (“the phalanx”); Rodale 1947 (“has begun”); Northbourne 1940 (“chemical,” 81, 99, 101; “very hard,” 91; “and laborious,” 115).

  Discovery, import of rubisco: Morton 2009 (2007):39–47 (“care about,” x); Benson 2002; Portis and Salvucci 2002; Wildman 2002.

  Eighty-three thousand enzymes: Placzek et al. 2016. BRENDA is at www.brenda-enzymes.org.

  Rubisco’s incompetence: Walker et al. 2016; Zhu et al. 201
0; Mann 1999 (quotes).

  Rubisco abundance: Raven 2013; Phillips and Milo 2009 (11 lbs.); Sage et al. 1987; Ellis 1979 (most abundant protein). It has been suggested that collagen is more abundant.

  Evolution of photosynthesis: Cole 2016; McFadden 2014.

  Margulis and symbiosis: Author’s conversations, Margulis; Weber 2011; Sagan 1967. Bhattacharya et al. 2004 and Raven and Allen 2003 review multiple acts of symbiosis.

  Gene migration (includes footnote): Raven and Allen 2003; Huang et al. 2003 (tobacco); De Las Rivas et al. 2002; Martin et al. 2002 (one-fifth), 1998; Sugiura 1995. The reference genome in Cyanobase (genome.microbedb.jp/cyanobase) has 3,725 genes.

  Multiple rubisco varieties: Tabita et al. 2008.

  IRRI founding: Bourne 2015:62-64; Cullather 2010:159–71; Chandler 1992: chap. 1 (“contributions,” 3).

  Political hopes for Asia: Cullather 2010:146–58 (“for food,” 162). Hunger and income statistics for 1960 are uncertain. I draw on discussions in Dyson 2005 (esp. 55–56); Ahluwalia et al. 1979.

  IR-8: Bourne 2015:66; Hettel 2008 (“sheer luck”); Chandler 1992:106–17; Jennings 1964.

  Gibberellin (footnote): My thanks to Ludmila Tyler for drawing my attention to this point.

  Spread, impact of IR-8: Bourne 2015:66-69; Cullather 2010:167–79 (“on hunger,” 171; “Mao books,” 176); Mukherji et al. 2009: Table 2 (irrigation use); Hazell 2009:7–14; Dawe 2008; Abdullah et al 2006:35; Alexandratos 2003:22; Dalrymple 1986:1068–72. Historic rice production and fertilizer use from FAOSTAT (faostat.fao.org).

  Projections: Hunter et al. 2017 (rise of “25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand”); Fischer et al. 2014 (“world demand for staple crop products should grow by 60% from 2010 to 2050,” 2); Foley 2014 (“population growth and richer diets will require us to roughly double the amount of crops we grow by 2050”); Garnet 2013 (“food production may need to rise by as much as 60–110% by 2050 overall,” 32); Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 (“increase by 60 percent from 2005/2007–2050,” 7); Tilman et al. 2011 (“a 100–110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050,” 20260); Godfray et al. 2010 (“Recent studies suggest that the world will need 70 to 100% more food by 2050”, 813); Royal Society 2009:1 (“even the most optimistic scenarios require increases in food production of at least 50%”), 6 (effects of meat consumption); World Bank 2008 (“cereal production will have to increase by nearly 50 percent and meat production by 85 percent from 2000 to 2030,” 8). On the role of affluence, see Weinzettel et al. 2013.