Epicenter 2.0

by Joel C. Rosenberg

  There is a terribly mistaken belief that is widespread in many intellectual circles in the United States and especially in Europe that somehow, if Israel will undertake further withdrawals in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, that this will lower the flames of radical Islam. My analysis in The Fight for Jerusalem is that rather than lower the flames of radical Islam, further withdrawals would actually elevate those flames. And Israel has real experience; we withdrew from Lebanon in the year 2000 and [we] got the [al-Aqsa] Intifada, Arafat’s attacks against Israel, in return. Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005, and we got a Hamas election victory in 2006 and the entry of Al-Qaeda into the Gaza Strip in return. The assertion I put forward in The Fight for Jerusalem is that—given the widespread nature of Islamic apocalyptic thought, which pins on Jerusalem a crucial role in the launching of a new global jihad—if Israel would withdraw from parts of the Old City of Jerusalem, we would set off a terrorist tsunami that would spread well beyond the Middle East to the heart of Western Europe and even to the United States. And therefore Jerusalem has to be treated very specially. Only a free and independent Israel can protect Jerusalem as a city that will be open to all faiths. That should be the policy, in my judgment, of every country in the Western alliance, and it certainly should be the policy of the State of Israel.

  Notes

  1 Hanan Greenberg, “Halutz: Abducted Soldier Alive,” Ynet News, June 25, 2006.

  2 For more, see Joel C. Rosenberg, “Reporters and Politicians Ask: Are These the End Times?”, joelrosenberg.blogspot.com, weblog, July 23, 2006.

  3 Associated Press, “Ahmadinejad: Israel pushed self-destruct button in Lebanon,” July 28, 2006.

  4 Aviram Zino and Roni Sofer, “Winograd: Political, Military Leadership Failed during War,” Ynet News, January 30, 2008.

  5 Nora Boustany, “For Arab World, a Sea Change,” Washington Post, August 19, 1990.

  6 Nadia Abu el-Magd, “Egypt Ponders Regional Role After War,” Associated Press, May 7, 2003. Other examples: In April 2003, Israeli Military Chief of Staff Moshe Ya’alon told senior Israeli commanders that the Middle East was “undergoing a political earthquake . . . that would take months, and possibly years, before the full effects are realized.” See “Israeli Security Perceptions to Change After Iraq War,” Voice of Israel Radio/BBC Worldwide Monitoring, April 14, 2003. In his March 8, 2005, column in the New York Times, David Brooks wrote of “political earthquakes now shaking the Arab world.” Steve Forbes wrote in his “Fact and Comment” column in Forbes magazine on March 28, 2005, “Our overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the resultant elections in Iraq have set off a political earthquake: elections in Afghanistan that extended the vote to women; free elections in Iraq; a free presidential election among the Palestinians, with the winner pleading for an end to violence and negotiating deals with Israel; a popular uprising in Lebanon; and Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak suddenly calling for a free presidential election when his term expires.”

  7 Agence France-Presse, “Hardline Win in Iran Sparks Fears on Nukes and Extremism,” June 25, 2005.

  8 Search of the Lexis-Nexis news database conducted on February 21, 2006.

  9 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, address to the United Nations General Assembly (speech, New York, September 17, 2005), translated and distributed by the Islamic Republic News Agency, posted on www.globalsecurity.org.

  10 Golnaz Esfandiari, “President Sees Light Surrounding Him,” Iran Press Service, November 29, 2005.

  11 Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, text of address to Tehran conference, reported by the Iranian Students News Agency, October 26, 2005, cited by the Middle East Media Research Institute, Special Dispatch Series No. 1013, October 28, 2005.

  12 See Reuters, “Iran Says It Joins Nuclear Club,”April 12, 2006. See also Amos Harel, “MI Chief Warns That Iran Will Produce Nuclear Bombs by 2010,” Haaretz, May 10, 2006; Agence France-Presse, “Iran 2–3 Years from Nuclear Bomb,” April 11, 2006; Con Coughlin, “Iran ‘Could Go Nuclear within Three Years,’” Daily Telegraph (London), January 16, 2006; Bloomberg News, “Iran Could Produce Nuclear Bomb in 16 Days, U.S. Says,” April 12, 2006.

  13 John Mintz, “U.S. Called Unprepared for Nuclear Terrorism,” Washington Post, May 3, 2005.

  14 Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (New York: Times Books, 2004). See excerpts in Graham Allison, “Nuclear Terrorism,” Blueprint magazine, Democratic Leadership Council, October 7, 2004.

  15 See Associated Press, “Iran Leader: Israel Will Be Annihilated,” April 14, 2006. See also Chris Brummitt, “Iran Leader Calls Israel an ‘Evil Regime,’” Associated Press, May 11, 2006.

  16 President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address (speech, United States Capitol, Washington DC, January 29, 2002).

  17 Glenn Kessler, “Bush Says U.S. Would Defend Israel Militarily,” Washington Post, February 2, 2006.

  18 Edmund Blair, “Bush Won’t Rule Out Nuclear Strike on Iran,” Reuters, April 18, 2006.

  19 Sen. John Kerry, for example, said during the September 30, 2004, presidential debate that “Iran is moving toward nuclear weapons and the world is more dangerous.” (http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2004a.html). His campaign Web site stated that “a nuclear armed Iran is an unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States and our allies in the region” (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2004/kerry_natl-security-plans_strategy.htm). Sen. John Edwards told the Washington Post in an interview published August 30, 2004, that “a nuclear Iran is unacceptable for so many reasons, including the possibility that it creates a gateway and the need for other countries in the region to develop nuclear capability—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, potentially others” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45216-2004Aug29.html). Sen. Joe Lieberman delivered a speech in Munich on February 5, 2006, warning, “Iran will test us all. If we ignore the threat it poses, or cover it with endless and hopeless negotiations, we will regret it” (http://lieberman.senate.gov/newsroom/release.cfm?id=251200).

  20 Senator Hillary Clinton, address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee annual conference (speech, May 24, 2005), http://clinton.senate.gov/~clinton/speeches/2005524910.html.

  21 John Zogby, “Zogby: 66% Say Iran A Threat To U.S.” (e-mail alert from Zogby.com, based on poll by John Zogby). See http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1109.

  22 Agence France-Presse, “Khatami Warns U.S. of ‘Burning Hell’ as Iran Marks Islamic Revolution,” February 10, 2005.

  23 See “Tehran Threatens West with Homicide Attacks,” Sunday Times, April 16, 2006; see also Ali Nouri Zadeh, “Iran’s Secret Plan if Attacked by U.S. Codenamed ‘Judgment Day,’” Asharq Al-Awsat, April 27, 2006.

  24 Associated Press, “Russia Agrees To $1 Billion Arms Deal With Iran,” December 2, 2005.

  25 Anton LaGuardia, et al., “We Will Use Force, Blair Warns Iranians,” Daily Telegraph, October 28, 2005. See also Philip Webster, “Blair Hints at Military Action after Iran’s ‘Disgraceful’ Taunt,” Times (London), October 28, 2005.

  26 Hilary Leila Krieger, “Olmert: Ahmadinejad Is a Psychopath,” Jerusalem Post, April 29, 2006.

  27 “Peres: ‘Ahmadinejad Represents Satan,’” CNN.com, April 15, 2006.

  28 Transcript, NBC’s Meet The Press, April 2, 2006.

  29 President George W. Bush, State of the Union Address (speech, United States Capitol, Washington, DC, January 29, 2002).

  30 Associated Press, “3 Americans Killed in Gaza Blast,” October 15, 2003.

  31 Paul Bedard, “Washington Whispers: Modern Nostradamus,” U.S. News & World Report, November 3, 2003.

  32 Associated Press, “Gunfight at Arafat Mourning Tent,” November 14, 2004.

  33 Asia News, “Civil War Looms over Palestine After Arafat’s Death,” November 15, 2004; Arutz Sheva, “Rival Gangs Violently Vie for Control in PA,” IsraelNationalNews.com, November 15, 2004. See also Daniel Pipes, weblog, “Palestinian Anarchy, Post-Arafat,”
November 14, 2004.

  34 Agence France-Presse, “Palestinian PM Called for End to ‘Armed Chaos,’” November 18, 2004.

  35 See “Bush Pledges to Spread Democracy,” CNN, January 20, 2005; Peter Baker and Michael A. Fletcher, “Bush Pledges to Spread Freedom: Global Focus on Rights Would Be a Shift in Policy,” Washington Post, January 21, 2005; Barbara Ferguson, “Bush Again Calls for Democracy in Middle East,” Arab News, February 4, 2005; “Rice Calls for Mid-East Democracy,” BBC News, June 20, 2005. See also Joel C. Rosenberg, “Two Great Dissidents: Natan Sharansky’s Vision, and President Bush’s,” National Review Online, November 19, 2004.

  36 Joel C. Rosenberg, interview by Sean Hannity, Sean Hannity Show, June 24, 2005.

  37 Henry Meyer, “Putin Amendment May Allow Third Term,” Associated Press, June 24, 2005.

  38 See Agence France-Presse, “‘Street Sweeper’ Ahmadinejad Promises New Era for Iran,” June 24, 2005; Associated Press, “Ahmadinejad Vows Strong Islamic Iran After Election Triumph,” June 25, 2005; BBC News, “Iran Hardliner Sweeps to Victory,” June 25, 2005; Roxana Saberi, “Iran’s New Leader Vows to Restart Nuclear Program,” National Public Radio, June 27, 2005.

  39 See John Daniszewski, “Hard-Liner Wins Decisively in Iran Presidential Election; Ahmadinejad’s victory signals the return of an Islamic fundamentalist government and is likely to alter the dynamic in nuclear negotiations,” Los Angeles Times, June 25, 2005; see also Kathy Gannon, “Iran’s New Leader to Pursue Nuclear Plans,” Associated Press, June 27, 2005.

  40 Vladimir Isachenkov, “Putin Offers Iran’s President-Elect to Continue Nuclear Cooperation,” Associated Press, June 25, 2005.

  41 Associated Press, “Novel Written By Saddam to Be Published,” June 24, 2005.

  42 To better understand the case he was making at the time, see Natan Sharansky, “Too Eager to Close the Deal,” New York Times, June 6, 2000; Natan Sharansky, “No Justice, No Peace,” Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2000; Natan Sharansky, “And Israel’s Task,” Washington Post, July 30, 2000.

  43 Daniel Klaidman and Jeffrey Bartholet, “The Fate of Jerusalem,” Newsweek cover story, July 24, 2000.

  44 Statement by Natan Sharansky, July 25, 2000.

  45 Putin served as head of the FSB—Federal’naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti Rossiyskoi Federatsii—from July 1998 to August 1999 and was then promoted by Boris Yeltsin to the role of Russia’s prime minister.

  46 See articles and studies by Joel C. Rosenberg: “Land of Promise: Restoring Israel’s Economic Miracle,” Policy Review (Fall 1991; Joel C. Rosenberg with Edward L. Hudgins, “Economic Reform, Not Loan Guarantees, Israel’s Only Path to Prosperity,” Heritage Backgrounder #881, The Heritage Foundation, February 13, 1992 ; “Still Time to Say No,” Jerusalem Post, August 10, 1992; “Why Economic Growth Is Critical to Arab Israeli Peace,” Heritage Backgrounder #920, The Heritage Foundation, November 5, 1992; “Economics and the Middle East,” Journal of Commerce, November 25, 1992.

  47 Tim LaHaye, The Coming Peace In The Middle East (Grand Rapids: Zondervan, 1984), 9.

  48 For 1948 data, see Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs “Independence Day” press release, April 25, 2004. For current data, see Israel Central Bureau of Statistics press release, “The Population of Israel Has Reached About 7 Million,” October 2, 2005 (actual number: 6,955,000). For future projections, see analysis by the Jewish Policy Planning Institute, cited by Amiram Barkat, “Greater TA Replaces NY As World’s Largest Jewish City,” Haaretz, January 17, 2006.

  49 Jon Felder, “Focus on Israel: Israel’s Agriculture in the 21st Century,” Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 24, 2002, 2. See also Statistical Abstract of Israel: 2005, Agriculture section, chart 19.19, 654.

  50 “Country Studies: Israel,” Agriculture section, U.S. Library of Congress, countrystudies.us/israel/76.htm.

  51 Jon Felder, “Focus on Israel: Israel’s Agriculture in the 21st Century,” Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 24, 2002.

  52 Ibid.

  53 Statistical Abstract of Israel: 2005, Agriculture section, chart 19.19, 654.

  54 Ibid.

  55 It was widely reported by the international media and interpreted in capitals around the world that Sharon’s stroll across the Temple Mount sparked spontaneous Arab protests. But even top Palestinian officials later acknowledged the “Al-Aksa Intifada,” as it came to be known, had been carefully planned and shrewdly orchestrated. “Whoever thinks the intifada broke out because of the despised Sharon’s visit to the Al-Aksa Mosque is wrong,” Palestinian communications minister Imad Al-Faluji told an Arab newspaper in the spring of 2001. “This intifada was planned in advance, ever since President Arafat’s return from the Camp David negotiations.” Another Arafat advisor told a French newspaper that “a few days before the Sharon visit to the mosque . . . Arafat requested that we be ready to initiate a clash.” Indeed, a closer look at official Palestinian media in the days and even months leading up to Sharon’s visit revealed such preparations. See Dore Gold, publisher, “One Year of Yasser Arafat’s Intifada: How It Started and How It Might End,” Jerusalem Issue Brief, 1, no. 4, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (October 1, 2001).

  56 See “Palestinian Violence and Terrorism Since September 2000,” Fact Sheet, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mfa.gov.il (accessed March 2, 2006); Martin Asser, “Lynch Mob’s Brutal Attack,” BBC News, October 12, 2000; “Attack on USS Cole,” U.S. State Department fact sheet, www.usinfo.state.gov (accessed March 2, 2006). See also, “Will Saddam Hussein Attack Israel?” Special Dispatch Series No. 136, Middle East Media Research Institute, October 13, 2000; “U.S. Calls Iraqi Troop Movement ‘All Show,’” CNN, October 12, 2000; “Hammurabi Division (Armored) [History],” www.globalsecurity.org (accessed March 3, 2006); Frank Gardner, “Saddam Threatens Israel,” BBC News, October 4, 2000.

  57 See “Suicide and Other Bombing Attacks in Israel Since the Declaration of Principles (September 1993),” Fact Sheet, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mfa.gov.il (accessed March 2, 2006).

  58 Arutz 2 [Israeli media], “Netanyahu: Barak’s concessions will destroy the country,” July 24, 2000.

  59 “Sharon Wins Landslide Victory,” CNN, February 7, 2001.

  60 Ibid.

  61 Benjamin Netanyahu, Fighting Terrorism; How Democracies Can Defeat the International Terrorist Network (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 1995), 96. Note: The publisher rereleased the book in late 2001, with a new foreword by the author, following the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

  62 Ibid., 126.

  63 Ibid., 125.

  64 Netanyahu’s book was updated in 2000 and retitled A Durable Peace: Israel and Its Place among the Nations.

  65 Benjamin Netanyahu, A Durable Peace: Israel and Its Place among the Nations (New York: Warner, 1993 and 2000), 135.

  66 Ibid., 136.

  67 See Judith S. Yaphe, statement to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (commonly known as the 9/11 Commission), July 9, 2003. Yaphe served for twenty years as a CIA analyst, specializing in the Middle East. She now works with the National Defense University in Washington, DC.

  68 Cited by Steven Komarow and Tom Squitieri, “NORAD Had Drills of Jets As Weapons,” USA Today, April 18, 2004.

  69 Condoleezza Rice, testimony before the 9/11 Commission, May 19, 2004, transcript by CNN.

  70 Richard Armitage, testimony before the 9/11 Commission, March 24, 2004, transcript by CNN.

  71 See Peter Jennings, America Strikes Back, ABC News Special, transcript, September 21, 2001.

  72 Tom Kean, et al., Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States, Executive Summary, “General Findings,” 7, www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report_Exec.htm (accessed February 27, 2006).

  73 Nick B. Williams Jr. and Daniel Williams, “Iraq Threatens Israel with Use of Nerve Gas,” Los Angeles Times, April 3, 1990.

  74 Jill Smolowe, “Sword of the Arabs,”
Time magazine, June 11, 1990.

  75 Andrew McEwen, “Experts Believe Iraq Will Stop Short of Invasion,” Times (London), July 26, 1990.

  76 Michael Wines, “U.S. Says Bush Was Surprised by the Iraqi Strike,” New York Times, August 5, 1990.

  77 Ibid.

  78 Rowan Scarborough, “CIA, Defense Saw Different Aims in Buildup,” Washington Times, August 3, 1990.