America Ascendant
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For all that, this is a deeply divided base. Moderates are a quarter of those who identify as Republicans, and they are very conscious of their discomfort with other parts of the party base. The moderates are fiscal conservatives who feel isolated in the party. Their distance begins with social issues such as gay marriage, abortion, and whether homosexuality should be discouraged by society, but it is also evident on issues such as climate change, undocumented immigrants, and the Second Amendment. The moderates are increasingly marginalized in their party as the other segments grow more defensive of views that are increasingly unpopular and under threat nationally.
Evangelicals feel most threatened by the ascendant demographic and cultural trends in America and bring unique intensity to their opposition to what is happening with homosexuals. Abortion is one of the issues where Evangelicals and the Tea Party base are equally aligned and intense—and they have led the charge in that battle against the trends in marriage and independence for women. The observant Catholic bloc is strongly opposed to the growing public acceptance of homosexuality and gay marriage though is less intense than the Evangelicals on this issue. They are less intense in their support for pro-life groups than the Tea Party or Evangelicals and closer to moderates when it comes to measures to prevent global warming; they are also less uncharitable toward the needy and slightly less hostile to Barack Obama personally.
What will quickly become apparent from listening to these voters is how intent they are to battle against the current trends, how high the stakes are for them, and how deeply their emotions run.
FOCUS GROUPS AS REAL LIFE
A few decades ago, a Macomb County focus group participant exclaimed, “No wonder they killed him,” after I read a statement by Robert Kennedy. That stopped me and led to a whole new analysis of Reagan Democrats and a new set of conclusions about the core obstacles to Democrats winning working-class white voters again. There were similar moments in the groups with core Republican voters that we conducted during the summer of 2013. This time the most interesting development was how they emerged as affinity groups where the participants worked through their alienation and isolation, not just from the politically correct, liberal-dominated media, but also from other Republicans, family members, and neighbors. If you want to know why Republicans are at war internally, start with their voters who are in turmoil.
The Evangelicals—who seem the most defensive when discussing popular culture, demographic trends, changes in the family, and what is happening in their states—wrote postcards at the conclusion of the groups and commented on what a relief it was to be with people who think like they do.
I’m not alone in the way I view things for the most part. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Not by myself in thought process.… Thought it was a great conversation and very informative. Thank you for the opportunity. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Good to be around like minded people. All of the people feel the country is in trouble due to the Democratic Party. Hope and pray that this will turn around. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Democracy Corps conducts homogeneous groups to replicate real-life homogeneity where people can feel free to talk about their feelings and emotions. This is what people say around the water cooler or at a family dinner. Many acted like this was the first time they could express their feelings freely in a safe place—and they did.
The moderates, who are uncomfortable with their own party on social issues, used their private postcards at the end of two hours to express surprise that there are other Republicans who think like themselves. While we did not use the word “moderate” in the focus group script, they did so self-consciously in their postcards.
Surprised at other females with fiscal conservative values while also being socially more moderate. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I was surprised that the group was more moderate on social issues, like I am. It seems that this group focused on the fiscal aspect of Republicanism as the main component. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
Discussions on “hot button” issues and how people with varying background seem to have middle ground. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
Many people are moderate because of $ issues & social issues. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
The common desire for a more moderate political party. (moderate woman, Raleigh)
I expected that in this comfortable setting or in their private written notes some would make a racial reference or racist slur when talking about the African American president. None did. They know that is deeply non-PC and are conscious of how they are perceived. But focusing on that misses the centrality of race to the worldview of Republican voters. They have an acute sense that they are white in a country that is becoming increasingly “minority,” and despite holding the majority in Congress, they feel their party is getting whooped by a Democratic Party that uses big-government programs that benefit mostly minorities to create government dependence and a new electoral majority. Barack Obama and Obamacare are racial flash points for many Evangelical and Tea Party voters.
BARACK OBAMA
For the Republican base, Barack Obama is the starting point for everything that is wrong with the country. Almost 90 percent of the Evangelical and Tea Party bloc “strongly disapproves” of how he is doing his job. For the Tea Party, it is personal, as 87 percent give him the “coolest” personal rating on our thermometer scale. Evangelicals are only slightly less personally hostile, with 83 percent very cool toward him.
Based on 7,004 interviews conducted for Democracy Corps, July 2013–January 2015.
For the Republican base, President Obama is a “liar” and “manipulator” who fooled the country. That offers a visceral separation and a reason not to listen to him. They are frustrated that the country was fooled and reelected the president who is getting his way. They are shocked that people believed him.
They think he is manipulating words, using props and teleprompters to communicate a false narrative to claim success for his governance. The Tea Party participants described him as a “spin doctor,” “misleading,” “slick,” “slimy,” “untrustworthy,” “condescending,” and “an SOB.”
He’s even slicker than Clinton. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
I had a concussion so they had to ask me a bunch of questions ’cause my mind wasn’t quite working and they said, “Who’s the president?” And I said, “an SOB,” and he said, “good enough.” (Tea Party woman, Roanoke)
When the teleprompter’s not there, he really falls apart. So I don’t know how much of all of this is him or if it’s his staff or whoever the Democratic Party is—and he’s just the figurehead. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
This is based on findings from the first phase of research for Democracy Corps’ Republican Party Project. We conducted six focus groups among Republican partisans—divided into Evangelicals, Tea Party adherents, and Moderates—between July 30 and August 1, 2013. All participants indicated that they voted only or mostly for Republican candidates and were screened on a battery of ideological and political indicators. The groups were conducted in Raleigh, North Carolina (Moderate and Tea Party), Roanoke, Virginia (Tea Party and Evangelical), and Colorado Springs, Colorado (Moderate and Evangelical).
The moderates are not very different on this score: “Trying to sell snake oil.” (moderate man, Colorado Springs); “He’s always campaigning. He’s never, it’s like you won. Now start leading. Quit campaigning to me” (moderate woman, Raleigh).
When they watched a TV video of the president speaking on the Affordable Care Act, the Evangelical women in Colorado Springs wrote some pretty harsh and dismissive things: “Spin Dr” and “Chronic liar”; “fake”; “lies”; “just a speech”; “liar”; “bullshit.” The comments from the moderate men there were almost indistinguishable: “Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies, Lies!!!!!!!”; “lies”; “disregards real facts”; “Socialism”; “Lies, Lies, Lies”; “Health care lies.”
The private doubts they wrote on a piece of paper before discussion w
ith the group betray a much deeper suspicion of the president as a person. Many have questions about him being foreign, non-Christian, or secretly Muslim.
Citizenship question. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
Socialist background. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
Origin of birth. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
Background. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Muslim; birth agenda; Fake; not true. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Not a US citizen. Supports Terrorists. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
I don’t believe he’s a Christian. He’s a tyrant. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Socialist, income redistribution. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
Lack of relationship with the American people. (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
They wonder about the real motives behind the changes he is advancing.
What is he really thinking? (Tea Party man, Raleigh)
He wants to fundamentally change the country. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
He is going to try to turn this into a communist country. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
His motives behind his actions. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
He supports everything that is against Christianity. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)
The moderate men in Colorado Springs raised as many questions as the other Republicans about who Obama really is:
Only cares about self-promotion, not the AMERICAN people. (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
Hopefully, he doesn’t change the Constitution so he can try to get elected again. (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
Feels government can solve any problem. (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
He is masonic Devil Illuminati, Lier can’t stand Him. (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
American? (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
Lies and scandals. (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
Muslim? (moderate man, Colorado Springs)
As we shall see below, these questions on character and legitimacy matter so much because these voters think President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and the Democratic Party are conspiring to push for bigger government and more spending to control the people. The Republican base is united in its opposition to big government programs and wasteful government spending, including the new health care reform law. Evangelical and Tea Party group participants also think he is trying to fool the middle class with a more palatable patina while pursuing a darker, secret, socialist agenda.
Even when he’s trying his hardest to appease conservative capitalist-oriented people … he still is spouting pure Marxist philosophy. He can’t get away from it.… I don’t know if he can … even find a speechwriter that can help him sound like he’s actually an American capitalist. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Obama’s … just pure distilled Marxism. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
We’re not on his agenda. And he thinks these are things he should say to appease us, because we’re middle class. We want jobs. We care about energy. We care about whatever his talking points are. And yet … he can’t stop the ultra-liberal Marxist bleeding through what he’s trying to say. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Republicans believe President Obama is on the verge of using his powers to pursue his agenda without limits. When asked what is going right in the country, a Tea Party woman in Roanoke joked, “Well, we’re not a communist nation … yet.” This fear is evident in the frequent discussions about executive orders and action: “When Congress is gone … he just does an Executive Order. He’s going to get anything he wants. And there’s nobody there that will have the guts enough to stand up to him”; “There’s so many secret things that go on—that are—bills are passed and regulations are passed—we never know about” (Evangelical man, Roanoke).
Much more distressing is the idea of the NSA and the IRS being turned against the Republican opponents of the government: “He’s turned the government into a spy agency on us” (Evangelical man, Roanoke); “[They are] setting up an organization and a machinery that can control and spy on every asset of our lives, and control it. And once it’s infiltrated with all of the little webs … you won’t be able to undo it” (Evangelical man, Roanoke). Worst of all, they are afraid that the president is getting away with such abuses unchecked.
BIG GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRATIC DEPENDENCE: OBAMACARE
What unites the current base of the Republican Party is a deep hostility to “Obamacare” or the Affordable Care Act: strong unfavorability is approaching 90 percent among the Tea Party and Evangelicals, and three-fourths of the observant Catholics have strong negative feelings. That is why it was their unifying issue in the U.S. Congress and 2014 off-year elections, and why it will be a litmus test for the Republican presidential primaries in the future.
But the reaction to President Obama’s health care reforms is about much more. It embodies their shared revulsion for big government—which has many potential meanings and undercurrents.
Some are straightforward and mainstream. They are opposed to big programs, spending, and regulations that undermine business. That is probably the dominant strand of thinking among the moderates who long for a fiscally conservative and focused Republican Party. Their first associations with government are “big”; “waste”; “Regulations. Inefficient”; “Red tape, that’s all” (moderate woman, Raleigh). They think big programs go hand in hand with special-interest groups and lobbyists who buy off politicians and push up spending (moderate man, Colorado Springs). Their objections pointedly do not put increased dependence center stage.
Accordingly, the moderates are very opposed to Obamacare because it is big spending; it won’t work; it will hurt business and employment. Their first associations are “Stupidity”; “Job killer”; “And I say debt, D-E-B-T”; “Job killer” (moderate women, Raleigh).
Many Republicans are also opposed to intrusive government that invades their privacy and diminishes their rights and freedoms—views held in common with many independents, libertarians, and broader parts of the electorate.
However, what elicits the most passion among Evangelicals and Tea Party Republicans is the belief that Democrats are growing big government to create rights to programs and dependence in order to win the electoral allegiance of minorities who will reward the Democratic Party with their votes. The Democratic Party exists to create programs and dependence—the food-stamp hammock and entitlements—for the “47 percent.” They freely describe these programs as meant to benefit minorities. Comprehensive immigration reform and the full implementation of Obamacare are now on the horizon, and they fear that citizenship for twelve million illegals and tens of millions getting free health care is the end of the road for their party. To them, that is why Obama and the Democrats are prevailing nationally and why the future of the Republic is so at risk.
The same underlying analysis and reaction are at the heart of their reaction to undocumented and illegal immigration. The Republicans, led by the Tea Party, are about as hostile to “undocumented” immigrants in the United States as they are to Obamacare. More than three in five are extremely cool to them, compared to just one in five Democrats. On the topic of immigration, Republicans speak literally and in graphic terms of being invaded, and the failure to speak English makes them pretty crazy:
Don’t come here and make me speak your language. Don’t fly your flag. You’re on American soil. You’re American. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
You come to our country, you need to learn our language. (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
Why should I put—press 1 if I want to speak in English? You know, everything—every politically correct machine out there says, “Press 1 for English. Press 2 for Spanish.” (Evangelical man, Roanoke)
And with the prospect of great political gains, “That’s why they want all the illegal aliens legalized,” one of the Evangelical men explained.
The most powerful dimension in Republican thinking according to our factor analysis is one that starts w
ith reactions to Obama and Pelosi, then to government programs and activism, and ends with feelings about dependency. This is the predominant and the most motivating dimension of Republican thinking, explaining almost a quarter of the variations in responses to the world they are confronting.
This dimension is animated in the first instance by deep hostility to President Barack Obama, and equally by views of Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Congress that held sway before the voter reactions in 2010 and 2014. These partisan responses are on the same dimension with a fierce hostility to federal government action on climate change, and importantly, health care reform. While Republicans are desperate to stop “Obamacare” now, future action on climate change is already on the same dimension—as Republican base voters see both as critical areas of government overreach. This is the most emotional and combustible dimension in the Republican identity, explaining the largest proportion of Republican responses across a whole array of topics.
They see the Democrats, led by Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, as creating government entitlements and dependence. A lot of people have come out of this economic crisis with different types of benefits that they look at as welfare being abused; especially guilty are those who have misused a food bank or unemployment benefits.
And the entitlement. Everybody seems to feel—And I volunteer at a food pantry.… And the thought of entitlement—I didn’t get my food stamps, and I need my TANF and I have to get my disability and I have to get my housing. (Evangelical woman, Colorado Springs)