America Ascendant

by Stanley B Greenberg

“The scales of heedlessness have fallen from our eyes,” President Wilson observed. That leaves us with a duty to “to cleanse, to reconsider, to restore, to correct the evil without impairing the good, to purify and humanize every process of our common life without weakening or sentimentalizing it.”

  “Here muster, not the forces of party, but the forces of humanity,” the president concluded his address. Knowing he needed to rally big forces if the progressive reformers were to prevail, he challenged the nation to join him in this mission: “Men’s hearts wait upon us; men’s lives hang in the balance; men’s hopes call upon us to say what we will do.”

  * * *

  President Wilson used this political moment to create the momentum for a cascading set of reforms that renewed America. He believed in America’s promise and values. He was angry that corruption and greed had allowed our democratic and Industrial Revolution to be soiled, and the task now was “to cleanse, to reconsider, to restore, to correct the evil.”

  Today, the vast majority of Americans believe in the country’s promise. They identify with this changing America, its diversity and multiculturalism, and identify strongly with cities where they live and the quality of life there. Many of the new immigrants may be working in low-wage jobs in restaurants and hotels, but they have faith and strong neighborhoods and networks of family and friends from their native countries. Today’s working women would not trade for an instant today’s frustrations for their role in the traditional breadwinner household. Millennials have different economic prospects and too much debt, though they have their own strategies and goals and friends and gravitate to the new urbanism.

  At the core, though, they think that their promise and America’s promise are being eroded by so many things that are just wrong. The American people are deeply frustrated with an economy that leaves them always on the edge. They live with the changes to the family and in parenting, and many are on their own. They resent the fact that CEOs and the richest play by different rules and use their money to buy a government that works for them, not the hardworking middle class. And with all of these problems, they are angry at the political class for not figuring out how to address them.

  Their anger will become poignant and reach a tipping point that compels the nation’s leaders to get to work, right the wrong, and address the deepest problems. The citizenry is ready for a cleansing era of reform that allows America to realize its promise.

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  I could not have written this book but for the leaders and party activists and for the ordinary citizens whom I have listened to in different countries across the globe. That must seem odd, since this book is about America. Yet they allowed me to see an America unobscured by the deadening partisan gridlock and the average American’s daily struggle to get by.

  Do you know the original title of my book plan accepted by the publisher was “America Without Dreams”? At least it was posed as a question.

  I was in Bilbao, Spain, giving a keynote address at a conference on “political communication,” and I was using it to test out the arguments of this book. I was asking, “What is the consequence of a younger generation that no longer expects to follow their parents’ path to the middle class?” I literally just stopped myself in mid-speech and went silent for a moment. “Look, I get that America’s unemployment rate is nearing 8 percent and here, half the youth are out of work and in revolt against failed political leaders. You must think I’m from Mars,” I said, or something to that effect.

  Over wine that evening with one of the discussants, I soon realized they were not at all upset with what must have seemed like my obvious insensitivity to what they were living through. They were upset about what I was saying about America. They believe America is economically and culturally dynamic, and they need it as a model of how a country can be a success. They just believed more than I did at the time that America would figure out how to fix what is broken and find a way to renew itself like it has done in the past.

  I think about Armando Briquet, the campaign manager for Henrique Capriles Radonski, who worked to unite the opposition to challenge Hugo Chavez for the presidency of Venezuela and then nearly defeated Nicolas Maduro, both of whom were aided by the immense machinery of Chavez’s party and state. Henrique’s manager would encourage thousands of activists to march through the streets of Chavista-controlled towns to show they were not afraid to go to the polling place and vote. With red flags draped on the balcony and Chavez supporters peering down, it was a brave statement.

  Yet there was no meeting, coffee, or dinner where the manager didn’t ask, “How is Obama doing?” Or, “How is Hillary doing?” As you know from having read this book, I am modestly critical of President Obama for not educating the country about the big structural economic problems that leave the middle class struggling. And they just ignored me. The president’s doing well, right?

  Well, with the official inflation rate at 69 percent, no toilet paper, medicines rationed, and key opposition leaders in jail in Venezuela, you first tell yourself to have some perspective on the American condition.

  You also realize very soon how important America is for them, and how important it is for America to be successful and exceptional.

  You should never lose track of how much America means to aspirant people in countries everywhere.

  They see an America continually renewed by new immigrants and that welcomes people like nowhere else. Some want their children to live there. They travel there to breathe its dynamism. They think America is the future.

  As I worked in country after country, I began to realize how unique is America’s openness to new immigrants, its growing racial and religious diversity and multiculturalism, and its framework for bringing unity out of diversity.

  That understanding of America changed the book, obviously.

  It also took a huge toll on my timetable for the book. It took me four and a half years to turn in the manuscript—roughly three years late.

  The book also took longer because I decided that my historic project of making Bill Clinton’s “forgotten middle class” front and center was no longer the formula for Democratic hegemony. That stopped me as I began to think through the implications. After all, I had paused writing this book to write with James Carville, It’s the Middle Class, Stupid! I threw out the planned chapter on the “Reagan Democrats.”

  I realize now that people are living through revolutionary changes, and they want a politics relevant to their lives. And they want to see reforms of such scale that they can address the deep problems the country faces. This is new territory, and you see the ordinary citizen has little patience with the leaders who don’t get it.

  And only late in the writing did I come to a realization that America is building a demand for bold reforms that could produce a new progressive era, which led me to write a book with more historical perspective. I wanted to signify what I believe is happening with my country and progressive politics.

  So, I have to thank Thomas Dunne, the editor and soul of Thomas Dunne Books at St. Martin’s Press, who has remained patient as the months and years ticked by and who understood the new scope of the book and its implications. Bob Barnett remained a faithful agent and advocate. And Anne Brewer took ownership, understood the timing, and produced a book we are all proud of. Joe Rinaldi was the publicist for my previous books, and he understood how this one could help make history.

  Many patient people reacted to the book plan, listened to me drone on at conferences, and read chapters or even the whole manuscript. I want to thank Robert Borosage, James Carville, Rosa DeLauro, Paul Glastris at Washington Monthly, Ed Kilgore and Andrew Levison at Democratic Strategist, Robert Kuttner at The American Prospect, Gara LaMarche, Theda Skocpol, Douglas Sosnik, and George Stephanopoulos. My brother, Edward Greenberg, at the University of Colorado, whose own books educate generations to bring a critical eye to American political institutions, took an especially critical pen to multiple drafts of the book.


  James Carville and I created Democracy Corps sixteen years ago, with the sustained financial support of Steve Bing in its first decade. He believed in our collaboration to create an independent and respected public-opinion-based organization that would not be afraid to be bold and offer strategies for change. America Ascendant was possible because of Democracy Corps’ polls and focus groups, carried on with new partners who are battling for reform too.

  Democracy Corps is vital and engaged because of the long-term partners who support the innovative research that allowed this book to explore new vistas. I am especially grateful to Page Gardner, head of Women’s Voices Women Vote and the Voter Participation Project, who has constantly evolved her strategy, expanded her partnerships, and demanded effectiveness; to David Donnelly, head of Every Voice, who is redefining what reform means in the face of unlimited money; to Anna Burger and Felicia Wong and to the Roosevelt Institute, which is redefining the liberal economic agenda in the face of financialization; to William and David Harris, who are always there; to Rahm Emanuel, Chris van Hollen, and Steve Israel, chairs of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; and to Kelly Ward and Alixandria Lapp. They allowed Democracy Corps to remain engaged and make a difference.

  The economy project was possible because of the original collaboration of John Podesta and the Center for American Progress; Jeffrey Katzenberg provided start-up funds for the Republican Party Project; and Robert Borosage and Roger Hickey and Campaign for America’s Future supported many of the key post-election surveys reported in this book.

  I am grateful to The Markle Foundation, which supported a bipartisan research project conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and North Star Opinion Research that provided new insights into the thinking of college graduates on technology and challenges of the new economy.

  I took full advantage of the bipartisan polls conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint for The Los Angeles Times that allowed this book to pay a lot of attention to California.

  And Mara Liasson and Ron Elving at National Public Radio have welcomed conducting their election-year polls jointly with Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic—our Republican counterpart, created at the urging of Karl Rove. I also want to thank Whit Ayres for his contribution to this book. I trust he will enjoy it.

  None of this would have been possible without Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which continues to lead as a company finding research-based strategies for campaigns, businesses, and NGOs in the United States and around the world. It is a company that wears its values on its sleeve, is engaged, and works for leaders of integrity. It provided amazing support while writing this book, including ideas and input from the partners. I am indebted to Anna Greenberg and Jeremy Rosner, who run the company, as well as to my partners, Al Quinlan and James Morris.

  With great conviction, Erica Seifert headed up Democracy Corps while a great deal of the research was done for this book, and she was aided in that work by Scott Tiell and Laura Swartz. Mathew Groch was my expert project coordinator. Nancy Zdunkewicz now leads Democracy Corps and has taken it to a new level, including critical research done for this book. The key studies were overseen by the talented analysts and vice presidents at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, including Missy Egelsky, Angela Kuefler, Drew Lieberman, Chloe Mullins, Dave Walker, and Ben Winston.

  Nancy Zdunkewicz’s deep commitment to the quality of this book, her professionalism, her understanding of the underlying issues, her writing and editing skills, her bravery in exposing my unconvincing arguments, and her willingness to work unimaginable hours to get this done did make this book possible. Nancy was aided on the book by a small army of interns whom I wish I could thank by name, and also by Jiore Craig, Kate McCarthy, and Katrina Avila of GQR Digital.

  Libby Green is my project coordinator, and she allows me to carry on my work for clients while protecting my writing time and time with the grandkids. She, too, pitched in to get the book done.

  My family plays a special role for me, though I know how important family is for all of us. All of our children are engaged in their own ways in bringing change and contributing to their communities—and we spend a lot of time helping each other. Kathryn Greenberg advises progressive groups on how to be effective, and her husband, Ari Zentner, does the same for businesses. Amazingly, Anna Greenberg and I work together, and she now leads all the U.S. domestic teams and has elected great leaders on her own. Jonathan Greenberg has built a successful pizzeria, Rosco’s, in Brooklyn, and his wife, Justine, copy-edits books, of all things.

  The book is dedicated to our grandchildren Jasper Samuel Delicath, Teo Isaac Zentner, Sadie Liberty Delicath, and Rigby Maya Zentner, who give life purpose. It is for them and their generation that our country and others need to tackle our deepest problems and allow America to lead this century.

  My wife, Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro, read this book through multiple drafts and offered comments; the book was a way we shared our thinking and helped each other in the ways we battle for change. I am in awe of what she has accomplished on food stamps, food safety and nutrition, food labeling, equal pay for women and paid leave, on tax credits for low-wage workers, and in her principled battles for the most vulnerable and against America’s new trade agreements. While I write on, she really is one of those creating the momentum for an era of reform.

  Washington, DC

  August 30, 2015

  NOTES

  Please note that some of the links referenced in this work are no longer active.

  1 AMERICA AT A TIPPING POINT

  1. Joseph S. Nye Jr., Is the American Century Over? (Malden: Polity Press, 2015), Kindle location 191, 871.

  2. “A More Diverse Nation: For the First Time, More Than 50 Percent of Children Under Age 5 Are Minorities,” U.S. Census Bureau, 2015; New York City Department of City Planning, “The Newest New Yorkers; Characteristics of the City’s Foreign-Born Population, 2013 Edition,” December 2013; U.S. Census Bureau, State and County QuickFacts, last revised January 7, 2014; Vivek Wadhwa, AnnaLee Saxenian, and F. Daniel Siciliano, Then and Now: America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs, Part VII (Duke University and University of California at Berkeley, October 2012), p. 2; national survey of 2,566 adults conducted by Gallup, May 2–7 and December 5–8, 2013, cited by Frank Newport, “In U.S., Four in 10 Report Attending Church in Last Week,” Gallup, December 24, 2013; migration data released by the United Nations, September 2013, cited in “Changing Patterns of Global Migration and Remittances: More Migrants in U.S. and Other Wealthy Countries: More Money to Middle-Income Countries,” Pew Research Center, December 2013, pp. 4–7; Wendy Wang, “The Rise of Intermarriage,” Pew Research Center, February 16, 2012, pp. 1, 5.

  3. Democracy Corps projections of composition of the 2016 presidential electorate. Projections reflect internal and external analysis of demographic and voter trends; David Madland and Ruy Teixeira, “New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation,” Center for American Progress, May 2009, p. 5.

  4. Robert Putnam and David Campbell, American Grace (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2012), Kindle location 1945, 331, 1500–1571; Robert P. Jones, Daniel Cox, and Juhem Navarro-Rivera, “A Shifting Landscape,” Public Religion Research Institute, February 26, 2014, p. 11.

  5. Mark J. Perry, “Stunning College Degree Gap: Women Have Earned Almost 10 Million More College Degrees Than Men Since 1982,” American Enterprise Institute, May 13, 2013; Wendy Wang, Kim Parker, and Paul Taylor, “Breadwinner Moms,” Pew Research Center, May 29, 2013, p. 6; Pew Research Center analysis of Decennial Census (1960–2000) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010) cited in “Barely Half of U.S. Adults Are Married—A Record Low,” Pew Research Center, December 14, 2011, pp. 1–2; Leigh Gallagher, The End of the Suburbs: Where the American Dream Is Moving (New York: Penguin Group, 2013), pp. 19, 146.

  6. Joe Cortright, “The Young and Restless and the Nation’s Cities,” City Report, City Observatory, October 2014, p. 1.

  7. Lawrence Mishel and Alyssa Davis, “CE
O Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less,” Economic Policy Institute, June 12, 2014.

  8. Nicholas Kristof, “Where the G.O.P Gets It Right,” The New York Times, April 10, 2014; Nick Schulz, Home Economics: The Consequences of Changing Family Structure (Washington, D.C.: AEI, 2013), Kindle location 470–83; Charles Murray, “The New American Divide,” The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2012.

  9. Andrew J. Cherlin, Labor’s Love Lost: The Rise and Fall of the Working-Class Family in America (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2014), p. 117.

  10. Walter Isaacson, The Innovators: How a Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014), Kindle location 239; Ian Morris, Why the West Rules—for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future (New York: Farrar, Straus & and Giroux, 2014), Kindle location 8034–8039; Thomas Piketty, “Table S2.4. World output growth rate 0-2100,” technical appendix in Capital in the Twenty-first Century (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University, March 2014).

  11. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, pp. 59, 91; Morris, Why the West Rules, Kindle location 8013–8023, 439–45.

  12. Cherlin, Labor’s Love Lost, pp. 48–49.

  13. Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-first Century, p. 349.

  14. Matthew O’Brien, “The Most Expensive Election Ever … 1896?,” The Atlantic, November 6, 2012.

  15. Michael Wolraich, Unreasonable Men: Theodore Roosevelt and the Republican Rebels Who Created Progressive Politics (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014), p. 200.

  16. The GOP Conservative Heartland includes Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

  17. “Political Polarization in the American Public,” Pew Research Center, June 12, 2014, p. 12.