The Story of Silver

by William L. Silber

  50. See Michael Kazin, A Godly Hero: The Life of William Jennings Bryan (New York: Alfred Knopf, 2006), pp. 285–303.

  CHAPTER 4: SEEDS OF ROOSEVELT’S MANIPULATION

  1. This quote and the next are from Jonathan Alter, The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred Days and the Triumph of Hope (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2006), p. 41.

  2. Burton Folsom Jr., New Deal or Raw Deal: How FDR’s Legacy Has Damaged America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008), p. 25.

  3. The biographical details in this paragraph and the next are from Betty Glad, Key Pittman: The Tragedy of a Senate Insider (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), esp. pp. 4, 5, 8, 11, 14.

  4. Ibid., p. 24

  5. Ibid., pp. 26–27.

  6. Ibid., p. 27.

  7. Ibid., p. 30.

  8. This quote and the next are from Fred L. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1963), p. 31.

  9. Ibid., p. 32.

  10. Glad, Key Pittman, p. 45.

  11. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 36.

  12. Ibid.

  13. Glad, Key Pittman, p. 59.

  14. From July 1914 through November 1918, the wholesale price index (NBER series M04049USM052NNBR) rose from 8.7 to 19.02. The data for silver are from the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) monthly series. Leavens, Silver Money, p. 137, discusses the increased demand for silver in subsidiary coins.

  15. The sale price and the purchase price are for pure silver (1000 fine) and were set in Public Law 139, 65th Cong., 2d sess., April 23, 1918, chap. 63, sections 1 and 2. As S. 4292, the act was described as, “An Act to conserve the gold supply of the United States; to permit the settlement in silver of trade balances adverse to the United States; to provide silver for subsidiary coinage and for commercial use; to assist foreign governments at war with the enemies of the United States; and for the above purposes to stabilize the price and encourage the production of silver.”

  16. “Silver Going to India,” Wall Street Journal, May 3, 1918, p. 9.

  17. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 77.

  18. Leavens, Silver Money, p. 79, dates the drop below one dollar in May 1920 and the end of Treasury purchases in July 1923.

  19. The average is based on end-of-month prices between June 1920 and July 1923, from the CRB database.

  20. See “The Pittman Act Presents the Anomaly of Two Kinds of Silver,” Wall Street Journal, June 19, 1920, p. 10; also see “Quotations in Silver Are Changed in Form,” Atlanta Constitution, June 18, 1920, p. 11.

  21. See “Would Repeal Silver Purchase Clause,” Wall Street Journal, January 13, 1920, p. 13.

  22. See “Doing Something for Silver,” New York Tribune, June 24, 1920, p. 8.

  23. “Says Pittman Act Will Stand,” Wall Street Journal, October 5, 1921, p. 12.

  24. Ibid.

  25. David Lloyd George’s quote was made in August 1934, after Hitler came to power (Newsweek, January 27, 1997, p. 86).

  26. See Leavens, Silver Money, p. 175.

  27. Ibid., p. 180. Leavens writes that prices declined by about 10% in the summer of 1926. The CRB data show a drop from 60.58¢ an ounce in September to 54.5¢ in October. The Royal Commission was published in August 1926 (Leavens, Silver Money, p. 175).

  28. The average price of 56.23¢ is based on monthly quotes from the CRB database between October 1926 and September 1929.

  CHAPTER 5: FDR PROMOTES SILVER

  1. “Text of Gov. Roosevelt’s Speech on Cost of Government and Pledge of Economy,” Chicago Daily Tribune, October 20, 1932, p. 6. Also see “Roosevelt Is Opposed to Cashing Bonus Now,” Daily Boston Globe, October 20, 1932, p. 1.

  2. See Donald A. Ritchie, Electing FDR: The New Deal Campaign of 1932 (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2007), p. 141.

  3. Alter, Defining Moment, p. 111.

  4. Ibid., p. 105.

  5. Ibid., p. 111.

  6. Ibid., p. 105.

  7. The money supply (demand deposits plus currency) measured $28.3 billion in October 1929 and $20.4 billion in June 1932, for a decline of 28% (Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963), pp. 712–13, table A-1. The consumer price index declined by 21% (CPI for all urban consumers at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2), and the unemployment rate was 23.7% in June 1932 (seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment rate at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2).

  8. “Text of Democratic Platform Submitted to Convention,” Chicago Daily Tribune, June 30, 1932, p. 4.

  9. “Governor Roosevelt’s Radio Speech Interpreting Party Platform,” New York Times, July 31, 1932, p. 2. Roosevelt began his talk by saying “I hope during this campaign to use the radio frequently to speak to you about important things that concern us all. In the olden days campaigns were conducted amid surroundings of brass bands and red lights. … Today common sense plays the greater part and final opinions are arrived at in the quiet of the home.”

  10. “Churchill Blames Money for Crisis,” New York Times, May 9, 1932, p. 5.

  11. Handy & Harman data show an all-time low of 24.25¢ per ounce on December 29, 1932.

  12. Both supply and demand caused the price decline, with sales of demonetized bullion from India boosting supply and depressed economic activity cutting demand. See Senate Subcommittee of the Committee on Banking and Currency, Purchase of Silver Produced in the United States with Silver Certificates: Hearings on S. 3606, 72d Cong., 1st sess. May 9, 1932, esp. p. 34.

  13. “Wheeler to Offer A 16–1 Silver Bill,” New York Times, January 4, 1932, p. 2.

  14. Burton K. Wheeler with Paul F. Kelley, Yankee from the West (Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday & Company, 1962), p. 302.

  15. “Wheeler to Offer a 16–1 Silver Bill,” New York Times, January 4, 1932, p. 2.

  16. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Remonetization of Silver, Part 2,” May 19, 1933, p. 10 (typed).

  17. “Senate Beats 16 to 1 Silver,” Chicago Tribune, January 25, 1933, p. 1.

  18. The quote is from “The President’s Bank Proclamation,” New York Times, March 6, 1933, p. 1. For details on the bank holiday, see William L. Silber, “Why Did FDR’s Bank Holiday Succeed?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review (July 2009): pp. 19–30.

  19. See Alter, Defining Moment, p. 269.

  20. Statistical tests on silver during this period are based on daily price data I collected on silver from the Wall Street Journal provided by bullion dealers Handy & Harman. The President’s announcement of the bank holiday was on Sunday, March 5. The price of silver on Monday, March 6 was quoted at 29.75¢ per ounce, an increase from 27.25¢ per ounce on Friday, March 4. The return (measured by log price relatives) of 8.77% is statistically significant when compared with the standard deviation of daily returns of .99% measured over the previous 90 calendar days.

  21. The first four lines of T.S. Eliot’s poem “The Waste Land” (1922) are: April is the cruelest month, breeding / Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing / Memory and desire, stirring / Dull roots with spring rain.

  22. Wheeler with Kelley, Yankee from the West, pp. 302, 304.

  23. Ibid., p. 304.

  24. Ibid., photos 17, 18.

  25. “Roosevelt Urges Speed on Farm Aid,” New York Times, April 1, 1933, p. 3.

  26. “Inflation Plan Loses 43 to 33 in Senate Test,” Chicago Daily Tribune, April 18, 1933, p. 1.

  27. See Raymond Moley, After Seven Years (New York: Harper & Brothers Publishers, 1939), p. 158, for the estimate of ten senators. Pittman was listed as “for the amendment” but was “paired” with another senator listed as “against” in a parliamentary move equivalent to abstaining. See “The Vote on Inflation,” New York Times, April 18, 1933, p. 1.

  28. Encyclopedia of Oklahoma History and Culture, s.v. “Thomas, John William Elmer” (by David D. Webb), http://www.okhistory.org/publications/enc/entry.php?entry=TH008.

  29. “Seek Inflation for Farm Bi
ll,” Wall Street Journal, April 13, 1933, p. 12.

  30. “Inflation Moves Wait,” New York Times, April 19, 1933, p. 1.

  31. “President’s Action Forced by Events,” New York Times, April 20, 1933, p. 1.

  32. Moley, After Seven Years, p. 158.

  33. “U.S. Goes Off Gold by Roosevelt Ban on Foreign Export,” Christian Science Monitor, April 19, 1933, p. 1 continued.

  34. Ibid.

  35. According to “Grain Prices Soar as Dollar Drops,” New York Times, April 20, 1933, p. 2, wheat closed up between 2–2.5¢, at 65¢ a bushel, or about 4%. According to “Buying of Cotton Heaviest in Years,” New York Times, April 20, 1933, p. 34, cotton closed at 7.15¢ up from 6.73¢ the previous day, for a gain of about 6%.

  36. The franc closed at .0438 (cents) on April 19, up from .0402 (cents) on April 18. (See “Dollar Collapses in Foreign Exchange Market—Silver Here, Up 3C., Limit for Day’s Trading,” Wall Street Journal, April 20, 1933, p. 1; and “Dollar Drops Sharply Again,” Wall Street Journal, April 19, p. 1.) The use of the French franc as a proxy for gold follows Paul Einzig, The Future of Gold (New York: Macmillan, 1935), p. 5. According to the Manchester Guardian, “Money and Stocks; the Paper Dollar,” April 20, 1933, p. 14, “Until shortly before the United States banking stoppage, London gold prices were fixed with reference to the dollar rate, but since then the French franc has been the point of reference.” Times of India, April 21, 1933, p. 6, “Special Service: London Market Quotations,” makes the following note: “The gold price is now based on French francs rather than dollars.”

  37. Handy & Harman silver was quoted at 32.375¢ on April 19 compared with 28.875¢ on April 18. The 11.44% return is statistically significant compared with the daily standard deviation of returns of 1.6% over the previous 90 calendar days.

  38. “Bill Is Introduced in Senate by Thomas,” Washington Post, April 21, 1933, p. 1.

  39. For a discussion of the rewriting, see Moley, After Seven Years, pp.159–61. Also see “President Takes Action,” New York Times, April 20, 1933, p. 1.

  40. See “Text of the Administration Measure on Inflation,” New York Times, April 21, 1933, p. 2. This amendment was subsequently changed on April 26, 1933, to include an explicit clause authorizing the president at his discretion to mandate the unlimited coinage of silver at a fixed ratio to gold, but the price of silver did not increase on April 26, or on April 28, when the revised amendment was passed. See “Silver Plan Added to Inflation Bill,” New York Times, April 27, 1933, p. 1. See also “Text of Thomas Amendment with Silver Provision,” Wall Street Journal, April 29, 1933, p. 8. The price of silver declined from 36¢ to 35.5 on April 26 and the price of silver declined from 35.375 to 34.625 on April 28. The daily standard deviation of returns for silver measured 1.6% for 90 calendar days prior to April 19, 1933, so neither of those price movements is statistically significant.

  41. “Robinson’s Statement on Thomas Money Bill,” Washington Post, April 21, 1933, p. 4.

  42. The quote is from “Federal Reserve to Lead Credit Expansion,” Washington Post, April 21, 1933, p. 1. The price of silver on April 20 increased to 35.5¢ from 32.375¢ on April 19. The 9.2% return is statistically significant compared with the daily standard deviation of returns of 1.6% over the 90 calendar days prior to April 19.

  43. On April 20 the French franc opened at .0446 (cents), for a gain of 2% above the previous close of .0438, but it closed at .0430 (cents), for a loss of 2% (see “Foreign Monies Continue to Rise,” Wall Street Journal, April 21, 1933, p. 1; and “Dollar Continues Exchange Decline,” New York Times, April 21, 1933, p.3). I averaged the two numbers and report zero change for April 20. Therefore, the dollar price of gold rose over the two days by the 9% recorded on April 19. In general, silver is more volatile than gold because it is a smaller market (see Minerals Yearbook: 1932–1933, p. 12) so it takes less to move its price. This is consistent with the earlier discussion that after the financial crisis in 2008 silver rose by almost 400% compared with a 250% increase for gold.

  44. Raymond Moley, The First New Deal (New York: Harcourt, Brace & World, 1966), p. 369.

  CHAPTER 6: SILVER SUBSIDY

  1. Congressional Record, 63d Cong., 2d sess., March 19, 1914, p. 5101.

  2. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 33.

  3. Ibid., p. 88.

  4. Cordell Hull, The Memoirs of Cordell Hull (New York: Macmillan Company, 1948), 1, p. 249.

  5. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 91.

  6. Arthur Schlesinger Jr., The Age of Roosevelt: The Coming of the New Deal (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1959), p. 211.

  7. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 91.

  8. “Silver Triumphant,” Christian Science Monitor, July 31, 1933, p. 12

  9. For more details, see “A World Conference Success,” Manchester Guardian, July 24, 1933, p. 5; and “Text of Silver Treaty Concluded at London,” New York Times, July 23, 1933, p. 16.

  10. “Silver Triumphant,” Christian Science Monitor, July 31, 1933, p. 12.

  11. “A World Conference Success,” Manchester Guardian, July 24, 1933, p. 5.

  12. The agreement was signed on Saturday night, July 22, 1933. The Handy & Harman quote on July 22 was 35.5¢ an ounce and was 37.375 on Monday, July 24. The 5.15% return is statistically significant compared with the 2.01% daily standard deviation of returns over the previous 90 calendar days (note the increase in silver volatility during this period). Although the price increase is statistically significant, the relatively small magnitude of the increase reflects two factors: 1) Ratification by the governments involved remained uncertain; 2) The restrictions on the participating countries “represented very little self-denial,” except for the United States (see Leavens, Silver Money, pp. 250–51).

  13. Wheeler’s quotes referred to the U.S. proposals at the opening of the London conference: “Wheeler Attacks Silver Plan Again,” New York Times, June 25, 1933, p. 2

  14. Ibid.

  15. Israel, Nevada’s Key Pittman, p. 93.

  16. The details on Henry Morgenthau’s life come primarily from Blum, From the Morgenthau Diaries, 1, pp. 1–27.

  17. Ibid., 1, p. 12.

  18. Ibid., 1, p. 15.

  19. Ibid., 1, p. 20.

  20. Morgenthau Diaries, vol. 00, Farm Credit Diary, April 27–November 16, 1933, p. 73, available at http://www.fdrlibrary.marist.edu/archives/collections/franklin/?p=collections/findingaid&id=535&q=&rootcontentid=188897#id188897.

  21. Morgenthau Diaries, vol. 00, p. 65.

  22. Ibid.

  23. Ibid., p. 75.

  24. Ibid. On October 29, the president said to a gathering of senior people in the administration, including Acheson, “Gentlemen … our buying gold is an administration policy. We are all in the same boat. If anybody does not like the boat he can get out of it” (ibid., p. 87). On November 13, FDR asked for Acheson’s resignation (ibid., p. 101). Also see “Inflationists Hail Victory as Morgenthau Replaces Woodin; Acheson Resigns,” Washington Post, November 16, 1933, p. 1.

  25. Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Fireside Chat,” October 22, 1933. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14537.

  26. An excellent description of the program is in Kenneth D. Garbade, Birth of a Market: The U.S. Treasury Securities Market from the Great War to the Great Depression (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2012), pp. 237–45.

  27. Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Proclamation and Statement Ratifying the London Agreement on Silver,” December 21, 1933. Online by Peters and Woolley, American Presidency Project. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14586.

  28. The Proclamation does not mention any price but the press reported 64.5¢ and that was understood by the general public. The Proclamation implies that the Treasury purchased silver at the official price of $1.29 per ounce but only half an ounce is returned to the owner, which means each ounce brings the owner half of $1.29, which is 64.5¢. See, for example, the popular description in “
How Silver Coinage Plan Will Work Under New Order,” Chicago Daily Tribune, December 22, 1933, p. 10. The relevant text of the proclamation is: “I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do proclaim and direct that each United States coinage mint shall receive for coinage into standard silver dollars any silver which such mint, subject to regulations prescribed hereunder by the Secretary of the Treasury, is satisfied has been mined, subsequent to the date of this proclamation, from natural deposits in the United States or any place subject to the jurisdiction thereof. The Director of the Mint, with the voluntary consent of the owner, shall deduct and retain of such silver so received 50 percent as seigniorage and for services performed by the Government of the United States relative to the coinage and delivery of silver dollars. The balance of such silver so received, that is, 50 percent thereof, shall be coined into standard silver dollars and the same, or an equal number of other standard silver dollars, shall be delivered to the owner or depositor of such silver. The 50 percent of such silver so deducted shall be retained as bullion by the Treasury and shall not be disposed of prior to the thirty-first day of December 1937, except for coining into United States coins.” Franklin D. Roosevelt, “Proclamation 2067—Ratifying the London Agreement on Silver,” December 21, 1933. Online by Peters and Woolley, The American Presidency Project. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=14587.)

  29. “Pittman, Silver Pact Author, Sees Export Trade Increase,” Washington Post, December 22, 1933, p. 8.

  30. “2 Silver Prices Now in Effect,” Wall Street Journal, December 23, 1933, p. 1. The Treasury price was quoted by Handy & Harman as 64.125¢ to reflect the cost of transporting the silver to the mint.

  31. The Proclamation was announced on the evening of December 21 (see “Roosevelt Order Remonetizes Silver in U.S.,” Chicago Daily Tribune, December 22, 1933, p. 1), so the 2.865% price increase from 43 on December 21 to 44¼ on December 22 measures the price impact of the announcement. It is statistically significant compared with the 1.23% daily standard deviation of returns over the previous 90 calendar days.