by Amy Webb
54. Kate Conger, “Google Employees Resign in Protest Against Pentagon Contract,” Gizmodo, May 14, 2018, https://gizmodo.com/google-employees-resign-in-protest-against-pentagon-con-1825729300.
55. Nitasha Tiku, “Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Says Tech Companies Should Work with the Pentagon,” Wired, October 15, 2018. https://www.wired.com/story/amazons-jeff-bezos-says-tech-companies-should-work-with-the-pentagon/.
56. Stewart, “China Racing for AI Military Edge.”
57. State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China Issues Guideline on Artificial Intelligence Development,” English.gov.cn, last modified July 20, 2017, http://english.gov.cn/policies/latest_releases/2017/07/20/content_281475742458322.htm.
58. State Council, People’s Republic of China, “Key AI Guidelines Unveiled,” English.gov.cn, last modified December 15, 2017, http://english.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2017/12/15/content_281475977265006.htm.
59. Elsa B. Kania, “China’s AI Giants Can’t Say No to the Party,” Foreign Policy, August 2, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/08/02/chinas-ai-giants-cant-say-no-to-the-party/.
60. Ibid.
61. Ibid.
62. John Pomfret, “China’s New Surveillance State Puts Facebook’s Privacy Problems in the Shade,” Washington Post, March 27, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/03/27/chinas-new-surveillance-state-puts-facebooks-privacy-problems-in-the-shade.
63. Nicholas Wright, “How Artificial Intelligence Will Reshape the Global Order,” Foreign Affairs, July 10, 2018, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-07-10/how-artificial-intelligence-will-reshape-global-order.
64. Zhang Hongpei. “Many Netizens Take Issue with Baidu CEO’s Comments on Data Privacy,” Global Times, March 26, 2018, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1095288.shtml.
65. Raymond Zhong, “Chinese Tech Giant on Brink of Collapse in New US Cold War,” New York Times, May 9, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/technology/zte-china-us-trade-war.html.
66. Samm Sacks, “Beijing Wants to Rewrite the Rules of the Internet,” Atlantic, June 19, 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/zte-huawei-china-trump-trade-cyber/563033/.
67. Ibid.
68. Ibid.
69. “The Thousand Talents Plan: The Recruitment Program for Innovative Talents (Long Term),” Recruitment Program of Global Experts, http://1000plan.org/en/.
70. Tom Simonite, “The Trump Administration Plays Catch-Up on Artificial Intelligence,” Wired, May 11, 2018, https://www.wired.com/story/trump-administration-plays-catch-up-artificial-intelligence/.
71. Ari Levy, “Dropbox Is Going Public: Here’s Who’s Making Money,” CNBC, February 23, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/dropbox-is-going-public-heres-whos-making-money.html.
72. John Gramlich, “5 Facts about Americans and Facebook,” Fact Tank (blog), April 10, 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/10/5-facts-about-americans-and-facebook/.
73. Elizabeth Weise, “Amazon Prime Is Popular, but in Three-Quarters of All US Homes? That’s Open to Debate,” USA Today, October 20, 2017, https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2017/10/20/amazon-prime-big-though-how-big-no-one-knows/784695001/.
74. “Mobile Fact Sheet,” Pew Research Center.
75. https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow.
76. Microsoft News Center, “Microsoft to Acquire GitHub for $7.5 Billion,” Microsoft.com, June 4, 2018, https://news.microsoft.com/2018/06/04/microsoft-to-acquire-github-for-7-5-billion/.
77. Jordan Novet, “Why Tech Companies Are Racing Each Other to Make Their Own Custom AI Chips,” CNBC, April 21, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/21/alibaba-joins-google-others-in-making-custom-ai-chips.html.
78. The full paper can be accessed at https://graphics.axios.com/pdf/PlatformPolicyPaper.pdf?_ga=2.167458877.2075880604.1541172609-1964512884.1536872317.
79. Tweets can be accessed at https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/1055035534769340418.
CHAPTER 3: A THOUSAND PAPER CUTS: AI’S UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
1. “‘An Owners’ Manual’ for Google’s Shareholders,” 2004 Founders’ IPO Letter, Alphabet Investor Relations, https://abc.xyz/investor/founders-letters/2004/ipo-letter.html.
2. Ibid.
3. “Leadership Principles,” Amazon, https://www.amazon.jobs/principles.
4. “Focus on Impact,” Facebook, September 8, 2015, https://www.facebook.com/facebookcareers/photos/a.1655178611435493.1073741828.1633466236940064/1655179928102028/?type=3&theater.
5. “Core Values,” Tencent, https://www.tencent.com/en-us/culture.html.
6. “Culture and Values,” Alibaba Group, https://www.alibabagroup.com/en/about/culture.
7. Mark Bergen, “Google Engineers Refused to Build Security Tool to Win Military Contracts,” Bloomberg, June 21, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-21/google-engineers-refused-to-build-security-tool-to-win-military-contracts.
8. Sundar Pichai, “AI at Google: Our Principles,” The Keyword (blog), Google, June 7, 2018, https://www.blog.google/technology/ai/ai-principles/.
9. “QuickFacts,” United States Census Bureau, accessed July 1, 2017, https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045217.
10. Alan MacCormack, John Rusnak, and Carliss Baldwin, Exploring the Duality Between Product and Organizational Architectures: A Test of the “Mirroring” Hypothesis, HBS Working Paper No. 08-039, (Boston: Harvard Business School, 2008), https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/08-039_1861e507-1dc1-4602-85b8-90d71559d85b.pdf.
11. Riccardo Miotto, Li Li, Brian A. Kidd, and Joel T. Dudley, “Deep Patient: An Unsupervised Representation to Predict the Future of Patients from the Electronic Health Records,” Scientific Reports, May 17, 2016, https://www.nature.com/articles/srep26094.
12. Alexander Mordvintsev, Christopher Olah, and Mike Tyka, “Inceptionism: Going Deeper into Neural Networks,” Google AI (blog), June 17, 2015, https://ai.googleblog.com/2015/06/inceptionism-going-deeper-into-neural.html.
13. “Inceptionism: Going Deeper into Neural Networks,” Google Photos, December 12, 2008–June 17, 2015, https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipPX0SCl7OzWilt9LnuQliattX4OUCj_8EP65_cTVnBmS1jnYgsGQAieQUc1VQWdgQ?key=aVBxWjhwSzg2RjJWLWRuVFBBZEN1d205bUdEMnhB.
14. Latanya Sweeney, “Discrimination in Online Ad Delivery,” ACM Queue 11, no. 3, (March 2013): 10, doi.org/10.1145/2460276.2460278.
15. Ali Winston, “Palantir Has Secretly Been Using New Orleans to Test Its Predictive Policing Technology,” Verge, February 27, 2018, https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/27/17054740/palantir-predictive-policing-tool-new-orleans-nopd.
16. Julia Angwin, Jeff Larson, Surya Mattu, and Lauren Kirchner, “Machine Bias,” ProPublica, May 23, 2016, https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing.
17. Kevin McLaughlin and Jessica E. Lessin, “Deep Confusion: Tensions Lingered Within Google Over DeepMind,” Information, April 19, 2018, https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deep-confusion-tensions-lingered-within-google-over-deepmind.
18. James Vincent, “Google’s DeepMind and UK Hospitals Made Illegal Deal for Health Data, Says Watchdog,” Verge, July 3, 2017, https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/3/15900670/google-deepmind-royal-free-2015-data-deal-ico-ruling-illegal.
19. Mustafa Suleyman and Dominic King, “The Information Commissioner, the Royal Free, and What We’ve Learned,” DeepMind (blog), July 3, 2017, https://deepmind.com/blog/ico-royal-free/.
20. “Microsoft Launches Fifth Generation of Popular AI Xiaoice,” Microsoft News Center, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ard/news/newsinfo.aspx?newsid=article_2017091.
21. Sophie Kleeman, “Here Are the Microsoft Twitter Bot’s Craziest Racist Rants,” Gizmodo, March 24, 2016, https://gizmodo.com/here-are-the-microsoft-twitter-bot-s-craziest-racist-ra-1766820160.
22. Peter Lee, “Learning from Tay’s Introduction,” Microsoft Official Blog, March 25, 2016, https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2016/03/25/learning-tays-introduction/.
&
nbsp; 23. Verity Harding and Sean Legassick, “Why We Launched DeepMind Ethics & Society,” DeepMind (blog), October 3, 2017, https://deepmind.com/blog/why-we-launched-deepmind-ethics-society/.
24. “Baidu CEO tells staff to put values before profit after cancer death scandal,” CNBC, May 10, 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/10/baidu-ceo-tells-staff-to-put-values-before-profit-after-cancer-death-scandal.html.
CHAPTER 4: FROM HERE TO ARTIFICIAL SUPERINTELLIGENCE: THE WARNING SIGNS
1. I modeled the scenarios in Part II using research from a variety of sources, and their references are in the bibliography. In addition, I spent time at the Robots exhibition at the Science Museum (London), which curated the past 500 years of humanoid robots and was a wonderful place to explore the themes introduced in Chapters 5 through 7.
2. Mike Floorwalker, “10 Deadly Disasters We Should Have Seen Coming,” Listverse, March 2, 2013, https://listverse.com/2013/03/02/10-deadly-disasters-we-should-have-seen-coming/. And also David Teather, “90-Second Nightmare of Shuttle Crew,” Guardian, February 6, 2003, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/feb/06/columbia.science.
3. Katrina Brooker, “I Was Devastated: Tim Berners-Lee, the Man Who Created to World Wide Web, Has Some Regrets,” Vanity Fair, July 1, 2018, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/07/the-man-who-created-the-world-wide-web-has-some-regrets.
4. Tim Berners-Lee, “The Web Is Under Threat. Join Us and Fight for It,” World Wide Web Foundation (blog), March 12, 2018, https://webfoundation.org/2018/03/web-birthday-29/.
5. “Subscriber share held by smartphone operating systems in the United States from 2012 to 2018,” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/266572/market-share-held-by-smartphone-platforms-in-the-united-states/.
6. “Primary e-mail providers according to consumers in the UnitedStates as of 2016, by age group,” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/547531/e-mail-provider-ranking-consumer-usa-age/.
7. Marisa Fernandez, “Amazon Leaves Retail Competitors in the Dust, Claims 50% of US E-Commerce Market,” Axios, July 13, 2018, https://www.axios.com/amazon-now-has-nearly-50-of-the-us-e-commerce-market-1531510098-8529045a-508d-46d6-861f-1d0c2c4a04b4.html.
8. Art Kleiner, “The Man Who Saw the Future,” Strategy+Business, February 12, 2003, https://www.strategy-business.com/article/8220?gko=0d07f.
9. Cass R. Sunstein, “Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law,” Chicago Unbound, John M. Olin Program in Law and Economics Working Paper No. 138, 2001.
10. “Quick Facts 2015,” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812348.
11. “Aviation Statistics,” National Transportation Safety Board, https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/Pages/aviation_stats.aspx.
12. Frederick P. Brooks, The Mythical Man Month: Essays on Software Engineering, Anniversary Edition (Boston: Addison Wesley, 1995).
13. Peter Wilby, “Beyond the Flynn Effect: New Myths about Race, Family and IQ?,” Guardian, September 27, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/sep/27/james-flynn-race-iq-myths-does-your-family-make-you-smarter.
14. Stephanie Condon, “US Once Again Boasts the World’s Fastest Supercomputer,” ZDNet, June 8, 2018, https://www.zdnet.com/article/us-once-again-boasts-the-worlds-fastest-supercomputer/.
15. Jen Viegas, “Comparison of Primate Brains Reveals Why Humans Are Unique,” Seeker, November 23, 2017, https://www.seeker.com/health/mind/comparison-of-primate-brains-reveals-why-humans-are-unique.
16. Nick Bostrom, “Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence,” NickBostrom.com, 2003, https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html.
17. I. J. Good, “Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine,” Advances in Computers 6 (1965): 31–88.
18. Gill A. Pratt, “Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29, no. 3 (Summer 2015): 51–60, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.51.
CHAPTER 6: LEARNING TO LIVE WITH MILLIONS OF PAPER CUTS: THE PRAGMATIC SCENARIO
1. Casey Ross and Ike Swetlitz, “IBM Watson Health Hampered by Internal Rivalries and Disorganization, Former Employees Say,” STAT, June 14, 2018, https://www.statnews.com/2018/06/14/ibm-watson-health-rivalries-disorganization/.
2. Ibid.
3. Gamaleldin F. Elsayed, Ian Goodfellow, and Jascha Sohl-Dickstein, “Adversarial Reprogramming of Neural Networks,” preprint edition accessed, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.11146.pdf.
4. Orange Wang, “Chinese Mobile Payment Giants Alipay, Tenpay fined US$88,000 for Breaking Foreign Exchange Rules,” South China Morning Post, July 25, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2156858/chinese-mobile-payment-giants-alipay-tenpay-fined-us88000.
CHAPTER 7: THE RÉNGONG ZHÌNÉNG DYNASTY: THE CATASTROPHIC SCENARIO
1. “China Has a Vastly Ambitious Plan to Connect the World,” Economist, July 28, 2018, https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/07/26/china-has-a-vastly-ambitious-plan-to-connect-the-world.
2. Ibid.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. Ernesto Londoño, “From a Space Station in Argentina, China Expands Its Reach in Latin America,” New York Times, July 28, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/28/world/americas/china-latin-america.html.
6. Kenneth D. Kochanek, Sherry L. Murphy, Jiaquan Xu, and Elizabeth Arias, Mortality in the United States, 2016, NCHS Data Brief no. 293 (Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2017), https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db293.pdf.
CHAPTER 8: PEBBLES AND BOULDERS: HOW TO FIX AI’S FUTURE
1. “Vinton G. Cerf,” Google AI, https://ai.google/research/people/author32412.
2. Asimov’s “Runaround” was first published in the March 1942 issue of Astounding Science Fiction. It also appears in his short-story collections I, Robot (1950), The Complete Robot (1982), and Robot Visions (1990).
3. Human Cell Atlas, https://www.humancellatlas.org/learn-more.
4. Cade Metz, “As China Marches Forward on AI, the White House Is Silent,” New York Times, February 12, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/technology/china-trump-artificial-intelligence.html.
5. Yoni Heisler, “Amazon in 2017 Spent Almost Twice as Much on R&D as Microsoft and Apple—Combined,” BGR, April 10, 2008, https://bgr.com/2018/04/10/amazon-vs-apple-research-and-development-2017-alphabet-google/
6. “The OTA Legacy,” Princeton University, http://www.princeton.edu/~ota/.
7. “Dining,” Department of Defense Washington Headquarters Services, http://www.whs.mil/our-services/building-facilities/dining.
8. “The Spheres,” Amazon, https://www.seattlespheres.com/.
9. Alicia Adamczyk, “These Are the Companies with the Best Parental Leave Policies,” Money, November 4, 2015, http://time.com/money/4098469/paid-parental-leave-google-amazon-apple-facebook/.
10. Amy Webb, “Apple vs. FBI Debate May Be the Least of Our Challenges,” CNN, February 29, 2016, https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/25/opinions/when-technology-clashes-with-law-iphone-opinion-webb/index.html.
11. “China Uncovers 500,000 Food Safety Violations in Nine Months,” Reuters, December 24, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-food-safety/china-uncovers-500000-food-safety-violations-in-nine-months-idUSKBN14D046.
12. Suneera Tandon, “An IBM Team Identified Deep Gender Bias from 50 Years of Booker Prize Shortlists,” Quartz India, July 24, 2018, https://qz.com/india/1333644/ibm-identifies-gender-bias-in-booker-prize-novel-shortlists/.
13. Hilary Mason, Twitter, March 28, 2018, https://twitter.com/hmason/status/979044821749895170
INDEX
Abductive reasoning, 170
Accidents and mistakes, AI: in catastrophic scenario of future, 208. See also Safety issues, AI; Xiaoice/Tay.ai
Adaptive learning systems, 167
AI R&D program, Obama-era: government defunding of, 179
AI Summer. See Dartmouth Workshop
AI Winter, 37–38
Airbnb, 87
Alexa, 13, 14–15, 17, 43, 69, 90, 207
Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team (DoD), 78; Project Maven, 78–79, 101
Algorithms: Alibaba values, 100; Amazon, 99; Amazon recognition, 139; Big Nine values, 99–103; competing, 184–185; evolutionary, 144, 164–165; Facebook, 100; first, 18; Google values, 99, 101–102; machine learning, 123, 183, 237; as part of AI ecosystem, 17; Tencent, 100
Ali-NPU chip, 92
Alibaba, 3, 5, 9, 49, 65, 67, 68–70, 93, 96, 158; AI chip development, 92; credit service, 81; Hema retail operation, 69; IoT, 76; Marriott hotels and, 69, 74–75; services, 69; Singles’ Day Festival sales, 72; sites, 68–69; smart speaker, 69; values algorithm, 100; Zoloz acquisition, 72
Alipay, 69, 186; social network, 81
Alphabet, 48, 49. See also Google
AlphaGo, 43–45, 46, 115
AlphaGo Zero, 46–48, 49, 110, 115, 135, 149, 225
Amazon, 3, 85, 96, 119, 154; Akira system, 161; Amazon Basics microwave, 217; in catastrophic scenario of future, 207, 209, 215, 216, 217–218, 219, 221, 223, 224, 225; China and, 76; classified data certificate, 101; credit card info storage, 88; Echo, 118; Echo Show, 54; employee reaction to DoD contract, 79; government cloud computing business, 86; leadership principles, 99; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 161, 162, 163, 171; percentage of e-commerce market, 139; in pragmatic scenario of future, 184–185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 195, 201, 202; recognition algorithms, 139; senior leadership, 56; 2017 sales, 71. See also Amazon Go store; Amazon-hosted Food Stamp Program; Amazon households; Amazon Housing/Homes; Amazon Prime
Amazon Go store, 69, 162
Amazon-hosted Food Stamp Program: in catastrophic scenario of future, 218
Amazon households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 216, 217–218, 219, 224, 225
Amazon Housing/Homes: in catastrophic scenario of future, 217–218, 219
Amazon Prime, 87
Amerige, Brian, 57
Amper, 15–16
Analytical Engine, 23, 24