by Amy Webb
Android mobile operating system, 139, 188, 191
Apollo, 68
Apple, 3, 85, 96; in catastrophic scenario of future, 209, 215, 216, 218, 219, 221, 223, 224, 225; consumer connections to, 88; mobile operating system, 139; neural engine chip development, 92; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 161; in pragmatic scenario of future, 186, 187–188, 189, 195, 201, 202; senior leadership, 56; Siri, 13, 43, 119; slowing older iPhones, 94; smart glasses, 161; visual voicemail, 89
Apple households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 216, 218, 219, 224, 225
Apple PDRs: in catastrophic scenario of future, 216
Applezon, pragmatic scenario of future and, 188, 189, 190, 192, 194, 202, 203, 205; health care system, 195, 196, 204; versus Google mega-OS choice, 191; smart glasses, 191. See also Applezon Health System; ApplezonVision glasses
Applezon Health System, 195, 196, 204
ApplezonVision glasses, 191
Arcadelt, Jacques, 16
Architecture: in optimistic scenario of future, 171–172
Argentina, 210
Aristotle: deductive reasoning and, 18; syllogistic logic and, 18
Artificial general intelligence (AGI), 89, 131, 143–144, 150, 169; Project Hermione, 169–171; systems, 53, 143–144. See also Future and AI, catastrophic scenario of; Future and AI, optimistic scenario of; Future and AI, pragmatic scenario of; Nanny AGIs (NAGIs)
Artificial intelligence (AI): anthropomorphized, 2; bad behavior, 113–122; definition, 13; developing guiding principles, 127–128; drivers of in China, 7; drivers of in United States, 7; ecosystem, 17; fail fast and fail often motto, 53; funding by U.S. government in optimistic scenario of future, 156; key practices, 31; loss of human control over advanced systems, 129; optimizing for humans, 126–131; pipeline problem, 64; term coined, 29; treating as public good, 136, 138; U.S. need for cohesive strategy, 244–245; warning signs about future crises; 136–141; women in field of, 64–65. See also specific types of artificial intelligence; Future and AI, catastrophic scenario of; Future and AI, optimistic scenario of; Future and AI, pragmatic scenario of
Artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), 53, 131, 143, 150, 158, 169; commercial applications, 53; sensory computation in optimistic scenario of future, 160
Artificial neural networks (ANNs), first, 32–33, 34
Artificial superintelligence (ASI), 143, 144, 147–148, 150, 177; China and catastrophic scenario of future, 229; China and pragmatic scenario of future, 206
Asimov, Isaac, 26, 236–237: I, Robot (book), 237; “Liar!” (story), 26; “Runaround” (short story), 236; Three Laws of Robotics, 26, 236–237; Zeroth Law of Robotics, 26, 237
Atomwise, Tencent investment in, 71
Automata, 18, 19, 21–22, 25. See also Automaton, first; Robots, physical
Automaton, first, 18
AutoML, 49; NASNet and, 49
Avatar (film), 165
Azure Cloud, 92, 119, 139, 215; partnership with Apollo, 68
Babbage, Charles, 23; Analytical Engine, 23; Difference Engine, 23
Bach, Johann Sebastian, 16
Back propagation, 32–33
Baidu, 3, 5, 9, 49, 65, 67–68, 82, 96, 158; AI, 49–50; autonomous driving platform, 68, 76; conversational AI platform, 68; number of mobile search users, 71; post-medical claims scandal ethics focus, 129
BAT: AI achievements, 243; AI education and, 66; centralized Chinese government plan and, 98; Chinese government control over, 86; Chinese government support of, 140; need for changes, 250; need for courageous leadership, 254; in optimistic scenario of future, 246; political and economic power, 244; in pragmatic scenario of future, 186, 193–194, 201; success of, 210; talent pipeline, 71. See also Alibaba; Baidu; Tencent
Beethoven, Ludwig van, 16
Bèi kùn, 215
Bell Labs, 29, 30
Belt and Road Initiative, 6–7, 75, 83, 158
Bengio, Yoshua, 41, 42, 59
Berger, Gaston, 141
Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing, 196
Berners-Lee, Tim, 137, 138
Bezos, Jeff, 70, 79, 86. See also Amazon
Bias: anti-humanistic in AI tribes, 57; in Big Nine corpora, 252; in Big Nine hiring practices, 62–63; citizen/consumer evaluation of workplace, 258; RNC accusations against Facebook, 56–57; unconscious biases of AI tribe members, 52; using AI to find in Big Nine corpora, 253. See also Bias standards, establishment of for Big Nine
Bias standards, establishment of for Big Nine, 251
Big Nine: as AI tribe members, 96; biases in hiring practices, 62–63; build it first, ask for forgiveness later mantra, 54, 94; establishment of bias standards for, 251; establishment of social contract between citizens and, 237; establishment of transparency standards for, 251; evaluation of research/products/partnerships/workflow for ethical implications and, 255; explanation and disclosure of data use and, 253–254; financial investment inclusion of funding for beneficial use and risk mapping and, 254; need for changes, 250–256; shared values, 100; U.S.-based portion, 85. See also Alibaba; Amazon; Apple; Baidu; Facebook; Future and AI, catastrophic scenario of; Future and AI, optimistic scenario of; Future and AI, pragmatic scenario of; Google; IBM; Microsoft; Tencent
Black box, 33; mind as, 33
Black box problem, 111, 113
Black computer science PhDs, 64
Bloom, Benjamin, 15
Bloom’s Taxonomy, 15, 16
Blue Origin, 86
Boole, George, 23–24; An Investigation of the Laws of Thought, 24
Boolean algebra, 24
Boolean logic, 24
Boston University, 60
Bostrom, Nick, 148
Brain-to-machine interfaces: in optimistic scenario of future, 176–177; in pragmatic scenario of future, 193–194
Braithwaite, Richard, 20
Brazil, 83, 210
Brin, Sergey, 99. See also Alphabet; Google
Brooks, Frederick, 143
Bush, Vannevar, 24; Differential Analyzer, 24
Business management: in optimistic scenario of future, 166
Cameron, James, 165
Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR), 59
Carnegie Mellon, 60, 63, 67; AI major, 60–61
Centers for Disease Control (CDC): call for expansion of purview and new name, 247–248
Cerf, Vint, 234
Chengyu, 76
Chile, 210
China: AI and superpower status, 212; AI ecosystem, 43; AI focus, 74, 138, 139; as AI hub, 49; AI-powered surveillance, 81; AI tribes, 66, 71, 76; authoritarian command of content and user data in, 73; BAT and education in, 66; Belt and Road Initiative, 6–7, 75, 83, 158; as buyer of Latin American natural resources, 210; citizen data collection by, 140; control of human data by, 5–6; control over BAT, 86; countries depending on, 245; demanding IP in return for capital, 72; dependence of on AI, 245; direct communication in, 124, 125; Dove domestic surveillance program, 77–78; drawing professors and researchers away from North American universities, 84; economic growth, 74; elementary school AI training in, 66; face recognition systems, 5; five-year AI training program, 66; Global Energy Interconnection, 7; as global leader in sustainability, 76; joint military training exercises off Brazilian and Chilean coasts, 210; military antenna/space control station in Patagonia, 210; military modernization, 77–78; People’s Liberation Army, 78; Police Cloud, 6, 82; political and economic power, 77; population obedience through AI, 80; privacy views, 79–82; satellite tracking hub in Argentina, 210; spreading communism via AI, 140; as supplier of military equipment to South America, 210; support of BAT, 140; Thousand Talents Plan, 84–85; 2015 military logistics summit with Latin American officials, 210; 2030 plan, 73; workplace safety disasters, 251. See also names of specific Chinese companies; BAT; China, catastrophic scenario of future and; China, optimistic scenario of future and; China, pragmatic scenario of future and; Xi Jinping
China, catastrophic scenario of future and: biometric borders, 227; exte
rmination of U.S. population by ASI, 229; geopolitical and military power, 223; Global One China Policy, 228, 229; Great AI Wall of China, 227; hackers, 215; Internet of Things attack, 215; locking Americans into United States, 227; One China Principle, 215; U.S. economic and diplomatic actions against, 227; U.S. government ignoring AI infrastructure and economy of, 210–211; U.S. southern border wall built by, 227
China, optimistic scenario of future and, 245; adoption of GAIA norms and standards, 172; smart city initiative pilot programs, 168. See also BAT
China, pragmatic scenario of future and: AI ecosystem growth, 201; colonization of Africa, 200, 206; control of lithium supply, 200; cutting off U.S. communication systems, 206; domination of advanced tech industries, 201; expansion of modern communism, 189; Facebook and, 202; military power via coding, 200; new generation of AGIs, 205–206; repurposing of AGI and brain-machine interfaces for military advantage, 205; shutting down U.S. critical infrastructure, 206; special economic trading zones, 200; U.S. government and industry ignoring, 179, 185–186; use of BAT technologies, 188. See also BAT
Chinese Communist Party (CCP), 213. See also China
Chinese Communist Revolution, Centennial of, 223
CHINOOK, 39
Clarke, Arthur, 35
Climate change: consequences of in catastrophic scenario of future, 228–229; G-MAFIA addressing in optimistic scenario of future, 171–172
Cloud: data storage, 88–89; hardware limitations and, 89; primary providers, 88. See also Azure Cloud
Code of Conduct, call for establishment of AI worker, 256
Coinbase, 87
Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), 93
Complexity theory, 30
Congressional Research Service, 247
Construction and building industries: in optimistic scenario of future, 165
Consumerism, acceleration of AI projects and, 98
Conway, Melvin, 106
Conway’s Law, 106; Big Nine and, 107; examples, 103–108; negative effects, 107–108
Cook, Tim: on future of privacy, 95. See also Apple
Cornell University, 60
Corpora: Big Nine biased, 252; Big Nine flawed, 252; G-MAFIA sharing costs of creating new, 253; problematic medical, 252; using AI to evaluate, 253; using AI to find biases in, 253; verification of data before use, 253
Coursera, Google machine-learning specialization and, 92–93
Crawford, Kate, 65
Creativity: machine in pragmatic scenario of future, 197; randomness and, 30. See also Music
Credit Karma, 87
Crime: in catastrophic scenario of future, 222; in optimistic scenario of future, 172, 175–176; in pragmatic scenario of future, 198–199
CRISPR, 129
DARPA, 37
Dartmouth workshop, 29–31, 32, 33, 34, 157, 158; AI key practices and, 31; artificial intelligence concept and, 29; Logic Theorist program, 30; research topics, 30; researchers, 35. See also McCarthy, John; Minsky, Marvin; Newell, Allen; Rochester, Nathaniel; Rosenblatt, Frank; Shannon, Claude; Simon, Herbert
Darwin, Charles, 144
Data: blurring of work and personal in catastrophic scenario of future, 208; citizen/consumer generation of for G-MAFIA, 88; cloud storage of, 88–89; open access to health data in catastrophic scenario of future, 209; as part of AI ecosystem, 17; synthetic, 182; third-party access to, 88. See also Data, human
Data, human, 5; China collection of, 140; China control of, 5–6
Dating, sex, and marriage: high-tech brothels with AI-powered sexbots in catastrophic scenario of future, 219–220; intermarriage among Amazon, Apple, and Google households in catastrophic scenario of future, 220; in optimistic scenario of future, 164–165, 174
de Jouvenel, Bertrand, 141
de Vaucanson, Jacques, 21–22
Dean, Jeff, 116; diversity comments, 54–55
Decacorns, 87
Deductive reasoning, Aristotle and, 18
Deep Blue supercomputer, 39, 45
Deep learning, 41, 43; Ichan School of Medicine experiment, 110–111; need for specialized hardware, 91; technologies, 110; viability, 48. See also Deep neural networks (DNNs)
Deep neural networks (DNNs), 41–42, 43; viability, 48
Deep Patient experiment, 110–111
DeepDream project, 111–112, 113
DeepMind, 43, 44, 45, 48, 115–117, 259; ethics and society team, 129; Google cloud service and, 117; Royal Free NHS Foundation patient data and, 116–117, 122; UK health care initiative and, 117; WaveNet and, 117
DeepMind team: AlphaGo Zero paper, 47; general-purpose learning machine, 48; power of, 46. See also DeepMind
Defense Innovation Board, 212
Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx), 212
Descartes, René, 19–20, 22, 27; Meditations on First Philosophy, 19; “Traité de l’homme” (Treatise of Man), 19–20
DeVaul, Richard, 55–56
Difference Engine, 23
Differential Analyzer, 24
Differential technological progress, Big Nine and, 254
Digital caste system: in catastrophic scenario of future, 209, 218; in pragmatic scenario of future, 197
Digital emissaries: in pragmatic scenario of future, 187
Dove domestic surveillance program, 77–78
Dropbox, 87
DuerOS, 68
Duke University, 60
Duplex, 48
Echo, 118
Echo Show, 54
Economic chimera of humans, 225
Economy, U.S.: in catastrophic scenario of future, 220, 226; in optimistic scenario of future, 172; in pragmatic scenario of future, 197, 205. See also Job search and AI; Jobs, blue-collar glut of
Edge computing, 90, 119
Education: in optimistic scenario of future, 167; Salesforce core values and in catastrophic scenario of future, 221–222. See also Education, AI; Universities
Education, AI: U.S. government officials’ lack of in catastrophic scenario of future, 211. See also Universities
Einstein, Alfred, 50
Electro the Moto-Man, 25
Elite: Dangerous (video game), 58
ELIZA program, 34; DOCTOR script, 34
Email: address as proto-PDR, 153–154; providers, 139
ENIAC, 27
Entscheidungsproblem, 24–25. See also Turing, Alan
ET City Brain, 69
Ethics: AI company culture and, 255; Baidu focus on, 129; IBM articles regarding, 129; integrating into non-ethics university courses, 256; screening for in G-MAFIA future hiring practices, 255; university courses, 61, 63
Euclid, first algorithm and, 18
Evolutionary algorithms, 144, 164–165; Darwinian natural selection and, 144, 145
Facebook, 3, 70, 85, 96, 154; adult users, 87; advertising revenue, 71; in catastrophic scenario of future, 209, 216, 223; Chinese ban, 76; core values, 100; data policies, 94; exclusion of conservative news on, 57; Intel partnership, 92; “move fast and break things” original motto, 53; number of users, 71; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 171; Portal, 54; post-Cambridge Analytica debacle apology, 54, 94; post-Cambridge Analytica scandal ethics team, 129; in pragmatic scenario of future, 186, 187, 188, 193, 201–202; psychological experimentation on users, 138; RNC bias accusations against, 56–57; senior leadership, 56; 2016 Presidential election and, 138; Website logins and, 88
Fake news, proliferation of in pragmatic scenario of future, 198
Fan Hui, 43–44, 45; versus DeepMind, 43–44
Fifth Generation, 38
Filmmaking, optimistic scenario of future and, 165–166
Future and AI, catastrophic scenario of, 151–152, 207–229; AGI system lockouts, 224; AI totalitarianism, 223; Amazon-hosted Food Stamp Program, 218; Amazon households, 216, 217–218, 219, 224, 225; Amazon Housing/Homes, 217–218, 219; Americans geographically locked in by China, 227; Apple households, 216, 218, 219, 224, 225; Apple PDRs, 216; blue-collar job glut, 221; blurring of work an
d personal data, 208; Chief AI Officers, 226; Chinese hackers, 215; climate change consequences, 228–229; corporate ownership of PDRs, 209; crime, 222; digital caste system, 209, 218; economic chimera of humans, 225; education and Salesforce core values, 221–222; extermination of U.S. and allied populations by Chinese ASI, 229; G-MAFIA and preservation of democratic ideals, 211; G-MAFIA diversity mantra, 208; G-MAFIA nonexistent inclusion efforts, 208; G-MAFIA shrinkage to GAA, 223; G-MAFIA sole owners of PDRs, 208, 216; G-MAFIA transactional relationship with U.S. government, 212; GAA-U.S. Government Coalition, 228; gender-nonconforming people and false accusations of identity theft, 222; Google Blue households, 217, 219, 225; Google Green households, 217, 219, 224, 225; Google households, 216–217, 218; Google Yellow households, 217, 219, 225; health and wellness minders, 219; health data open access, 209; healthcare, 224–226; high-tech brothels with AI-powered sexbots, 219–220; home AI kitchen appliance glitches, 214–215; ignoring AI’s developmental track, 207; intermarriage among Amazon, Apple, and Google households, 220; job displacement, 220; lack of AI education among government leaders, 211; life expectancy, 225; nanobot-induced abortions, 225; nanobot-induced deaths, 225–226; nanobot health monitoring and treatment, 224–226; OmniVision smart glasses, 221; Organization Data Records, 226; PDR as social credit score, 209; PDRs, 208–209, 218, 226; personalized medicine, 224; rising numbers of AI accidents and mistakes, 208; self-driving taxi services and Amazon riders, 218–219; self-driving taxi services and Google riders, 219; transparency among G-MAFIA, 208; 2049, 223–228; 2069, 228–229; 2029, 214–223; U.S. economic and diplomatic actions against China, 227; U.S. government ignoring China’s AI infrastructure and economy, 210–211; unemployment, 226. See also names of specific companies
Future and AI, optimistic scenario of, 151, 155–178, 233; architectural trends, 171–172; brain-to-machine interfaces, 176–177; business management, 166; China adoption of GAIA norms and standards, 172; computational pharmacists and pharmacies, 173; construction and building industries, 165; Contributing Team Member Test, 169, 171, 175; crime, 172, 175–176; cubesat networks, 168; Dartmouth inaugural intergovernmental forum, 157–158; dating, sex, and marriage, 164–165, 174; education, 167; face recognition payment options in stores, 162; Federal Smart Infrastructure Administration (FSIA), 176; filmmaking, 165–166; first artificial general intelligence system (AGI), 169–171; G-MAFIA actions against China’s nefarious AI use, 156; G-MAFIA addressing climate change, 171–172; G-MAFIA Coalition adoption of transparency as core value, 157; G-MAFIA Coalition formalization, 157; G-MAFIA privacy commitment, 168; G-MAFIA mixed reality products and services partnerships, 160–161, 165; G-MAFIA nudging toward healthier lifestyles, 162–163; GAIA (Global Alliance on Intelligence Augmentation) and, 158, 159, 176; GAIA decision and actions to prevent ASI creation, 177–178; GAIA regular meetings, 160; genome sequencing, 174; grocery shopping and delivery services, 161–162; health care systems, 163–164, 173–174; home AI systems and appliances, 161, 172–173; job displacement and AGI, 172; journalism, 167–168, 175; law enforcement, 176; meal-kit services linked to household PDR, 162; music, 174–175; new types of criminal activity and AGI, 172; PDR individual ownership 159; PDRs treated as distributed ledgers, 159; PDRs and privacy, 168; Project Hermione (AGI), 169–171; quick-service stores, 162; robotic pets, 162; sensory computation, 160; smart camera surveillance in retail stores, 162; smart city pilot programs, 168, 176; 2049, 169–177; 2069, 177–178; 2029, 159–169; U.S. government AI funding, 156; workforce preparation for computing’s third era, 157. See also names of specific companies; China, optimistic scenario of future