by Amy Webb
Future and AI, pragmatic scenario of, 151, 179–206; adversarial examples in AI training programs, 183–184; Applezon, 188, 189, 190, 192, 194, 202, 203, 205; Applezon Health System, 195, 196, 204; Applezon versus Google mega-OS choice, 191; Applezon Vision glasses, 191; backup analog tools, 190; Big Nine prioritizing speed over safety and, 180; brain-machine interfaces, 193–194; competing algorithms, 184–185; crime, 198–199; data collection/labeling and, 181; decline of Western civilization and democratic ideals, 205; digital caste system, 197; digital emissaries, 187; economy in peril, 205; electronic headbands linking minds, 204; EU ban on NAGIs, 203; fake news proliferation, 198; G-MAFIA divvying up of functions and features, 186; G-MAFIA nonexistent core values, 186; G-MAFIA loss of Facebook, 201–202; gigware, 196; harassment by physical robots, 199; healthcare, 182, 194, 195–196, 204; healthy lifestyle nagging, 194; home as marketing container, 203–204; human-animal chimeras, 204–205; ignoring China and, 179, 185–186; ill-behaved AGIs, 202–203; information contamination, 198; job search use of AI, 196–197; journalism, 198; law enforcement and G-Mafia locked systems, 199; learned helplessness, 190–201; machine creativity, 197; mega-OS (Google), 187, 188, 189, 190; middle management jobs elimination, 197; nanny AGIs (NAGIs), 202–203, 205; neuroenchancing headband, 193–194; parrot attacks, 193; PDR G-MAFIA ownership, 187; PDR linked to insurance premium, 194; PDR third-party use, 189; reward hacking, 183; smart glasses, 191, 192; smartphones, 191; splinternets, 198; subscription model for smart wearables and tools, 192–193; transparency, 188; 2049, 201-205; 2069, 205–206; 2029, 190-201; two-OS system, 188–189, 190; Watson-Calico Health System, 195, 196, 204. See also names of specific companies; China, pragmatic scenario of future
Future and AI, recommendations for fixing: AI worker Code of Conduct, 256; allow G-MAFIA to work at reasonable pace, 246; bias standards for Big Nine, 251; Big Nine evaluation of research/products/partnerships/workflow for ethical implications, 255; Big Nine explanation and disclosure of data use, 253–254; catalog basic values, 237; change AI pipeline program, 256–257; citizen/consumer changes, 257–259; citizen-owned personally identifiable information (PII), 237; cohesive AI strategy for United States, 244–245; define basic values, 237; eliminate most government regulations for G-MAFIA AI development, 250; empower Big Nine to shift AI trajectory, 234; ethics and company culture, 255; ethics screenings in G-MAFIA hiring practices, 255; expand CDC purview and rename it, 247–248; global safety standards, 251; global transparency standards, 252; government competition with G-MAFIA for computer scientists and, 248–249; government internal capacity for AI research/testing/deployment, 242; government view of G-MAFIA as strategic partners, 249–250; governmental change, 242–250; Human Values Atlas, 237–238, 239; hybrid university degree offerings, 256; improve flawed corpora/training data sets, 252–253; include funding for beneficial use and risk mapping in Big Nine financial investment deals, 254; inclusive recruiting by universities, 257; install AI experts in government, 242; integrate ethics into university courses, 256; make working knowledge of AI mandatory for governmental leaders/managers/policymakers, 242; media consumption and, 258; national service program for AI, 249; need for Big Nine changes, 250–256; need for courageous leadership, 246; reasonable AI budget for United States, 244; reorient United States and China, 243–246; social contract between Big Nine and citizens, 237; transparency standards for Big Nine, 251; vote with AI in mind, 258; workplace bias evaluation by citizen/consumer, 258. See also BAT; Corpora; Global Alliance on Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA); Office of Technology Assessment (OTA)
G-MAFIA, 246; ethics screening in hiring practices, 255; focus on commercial viability of AI, 86; pressure on to build practical and commercial applications quickly, 87; U.S. government ignoring of, 86; U.S. government reliance on, 86. See also Amazon; Apple; Facebook; G-MAFIA, catastrophic scenario of future and; G-MAFIA, optimistic scenario of future and; G-MAFIA, pragmatic scenario of future and; Google; IBM; Microsoft
G-MAFIA, catastrophic scenario of future and: diversity mantra, 208; nonexistent inclusion efforts, 208; preservation of democratic ideals and, 211; shrinkage to GAA, 223; as sole owners of PDRs, 208, 216; transactional relationship with U.S. government, 212
G-MAFIA, optimistic scenario of future and: actions against China’s nefarious AI use, 156; addressing climate change, 171–172; adoption of transparency as core value, 157; Coalition formalization, 157; mixed reality products and services partnerships, 160–161, 165; nudging people toward healthy lifestyles, 162–163; privacy commitment, 168
G-MAFIA, pragmatic scenario of future and: divvying up of functions and features, 186; nagging people toward healthy lifestyles, 194; nonexistent core values, 186; loss of Facebook, 201–202
GAA: coalition with U.S. government in catastrophic scenario of future, 228; shrinkage of G-MAFIA to in catastrophic scenario of future, 223
Game theory, 27
Games. See AlphaGo; AlphaGo Zero; Go; Machine learning; Watson
Gender-nonconforming people: false accusations of identity theft in catastrophic scenario of future, 222
Generative adversarial network (GAN), 184
Genie X1, 69
Genome sequencing: in optimistic scenario of future, 174
Georgia Institute of Technology, 60
Gigware: in pragmatic scenario of future, 196
Gingrich, Newt, 246
GitHub, 91–92
Global Alliance on Intelligence Augmentation (GAIA): BAT and, 236; China as possible coleaders of, 245; consideration of framework of rights, 238–240; decision and actions to prevent ASI creation in optimistic scenario of future, 177–178; hold regular meetings in optimistic scenario of future, 160; human rights guarantee and, 236, 256; in optimistic scenario of future, 158, 159, 160, 172, 176, 177–178; member collaboration, 241; members, 235; Montreal as desired location, 235–236; need for creation of, 235–242; norms and standards adoption by China in optimistic scenario of future, 172; random inspection of members, 240; Sentinel AIs and, 241; sharing of findings by members, 241; working in partnership with member countries, 242
Global Energy Interconnection, 7
Gmail, 139; as proto-PDR, 153–154; spam filter, 89
Go, 39–41, 43, 116, 259; Elo rating, 46. See also names of specific Go players; AlphaGo; AlphaGo Zero
Go Intellect, 41
Good, I. J., 33, 148, 177
Google, 3, 43, 48, 67, 69, 85–86, 96, 119, 211–212, 254; Calico health initiative, 194; in catastrophic scenario of future, 207, 209, 215, 216–217, 218, 219, 221, 223, 224, 225; Chinese ban, 76; consumer connections to, 88; Coursera online learning platform and, 92–93; custom silicon, 91; DeepDream project, 111–112; diversity and, 54–55; Google Glass failure, 191; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 161, 163, 165, 171, 173; mobile operating system, 139; new set of core principles, 101; no weapons principle, 101; original core value, 99; in pragmatic scenario of future, 186, 187, 188, 189, 194, 195, 201, 202, 203, 205; Project Maven debacle and employee resignations, 79, 101; scanning and indexing of copyrighted books, 94; senior leadership, 56; sexual assault and harassment at, 55–56; 2018 South by Southwest Festival smart home, 216–217; unconscious bias initiative, 55; values algorithm, 99, 101–102; view of women in workplace, 64–65. See also Gmail; Google AdSense; Google Blue households; Google Brain; Google Cloud; Google Green households; Google Home; Google households; Google mega-OS; Google Play; Google Voice; Google Yellow households
Google AdSense, 114, 122
Google Blue households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 217, 219, 225
Google Brain, 49, 54, 61, 67, 116, 184
Google Cloud, 65
Google Green households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 217, 219, 224, 225
Google Home, 69, 90
Google households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 216–217,
218
Google mega-OS: in pragmatic scenario of future, 187, 188, 189, 190
Google Play, 202
Google Vo
ice, 43
Google Yellow households: in catastrophic scenario of future, 217, 219, 225
Grocery shopping and delivery services: in optimistic scenario of future, 161–162
Hackers and hacking: Chinese in catastrophic scenario of future, 215; in pragmatic scenario of future, 183; Russian during 2016 U.S. Presidential campaign and election, 138
HAL 9000, 2, 35, 39
Hanjin Lee, 45
Harvard University, 60; Berkman Klein Center, 61
Hassabis, Demis, 43
Hayden, Franz Joseph, 16
Health and wellness minders: in catastrophic scenario of future, 219; in pragmatic scenario of future, 194
Health care systems: in catastrophic scenario of future, 224–226; in optimistic scenario of future, 163–164, 173–174; in pragmatic scenario of future, 182, 194, 195–196, 204; Tencent, 71, 76. See also Watson-Calico Health System; Watson Health
Health data: open access in catastrophic scenario of future, 209
Healthy lifestyles: G-MAFIA nagging individuals toward in pragmatic scenario of future, 194; G-MAFIA nudging individuals toward in optimistic scenario of future, 162–163
Hinton, Geoff, 41, 42–43, 59, 116
Hispanic computer science PhDs, 64
History, AI: AI language-translation program, 36; ancient Greece, 17–18; British, 38; Chinese, 43; Dartmouth Workshop, 29–31, 32, 33, 34, 157, 158; early AI systems, 34; early automata, 18, 21–22; 18th century, 21–23; first artificial neural network, 32; first automatic calculator, 21; first automaton, 18; first electric computer, 27; first era of computing, 33; introduction of “neural network” concept, 26–27; introduction of programmable computer concept, 33; Japanese, 38; machines learning to play games, 38–50; 1980s, 38–39; 1950s, 29–35; 1940s, 26–28; 1970s, 41; 1960s, 35–37; 1930s, 24–25; 19th-century computers, 23; relay-based robot, 25; second era of computing, 33; 17th-century philosophers and, 19–20; 21st century, 39, 42–49
Hobbes, Thomas, 19, 27; De Corpore, 19
HoloLens, 92
Home AI systems/appliances: glitches in catastrophic scenario of future, 214–215; in optimistic scenario of future, 161, 172–173; in pragmatic scenario of future, 203–204
Hotmail, 139
Human-animal chimeras: in pragmatic scenario of future, 204–205
Human intelligence, measurement of, 145–146
Human Values Atlas: need for adherence to, 239; need for creation of, 237–238. See also Values
Hume, David, 22, 27; A Treatise of Human Nature, 22
I AM AI, 15
IBM, 2, 3, 29, 30, 85, 96, 143; AI chip development, 92; in catastrophic scenario of future, 209, 215, 223; chip technology, 139; consumer connections to, 88; Deep Blue, 39, 45; ethics and AI articles from, 129; Georgetown University and Russian-English machine translation system, 36; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 163, 167, 173; in pragmatic scenario of future, 182, 186, 188, 194, 195, 201, 202, 203, 205; senior leadership, 56; Socratic AI, 167; Summit supercomputer and, 146. See also Watson; Watson Health
ImageNet, 181, 252
India, China’s cybersecurity laws and practices and, 83
Infoseek, 67
Intel, 36; Apollo partnership, 68; Facebook partnership, 92
Intelligence explosion, 148–149; in optimistic scenario of future, 177
Intelligence quotient (IQ), 145–146, 147
Internet, 137
iOS mobile operating system, 139, 188, 191
Japan: Fifth Generation AI plan, 38; Fukushima disaster, 136; indirect communication in, 124, 125
Jennings, Ken, 39; versus Watson, 39
Jetsons, The: Rosie, 2
Jiang Zemin, 80
Job displacement and unemployment: in catastrophic scenario of future, 220, 226; in optimistic scenario of future, 172; in pragmatic scenario of future, 197
Job search and AI: in pragmatic scenario of future, 196–197
Jobs, blue-collar glut of: in catastrophic scenario of future, 221
Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, Pentagon creation of, 243
Journalism: in optimistic scenario of future, 167–168, 175; in pragmatic scenario of future, 198. See also Fake news, proliferation of in pragmatic scenario of future
Kahn, Herman, 141
Kahneman, Daniel, 108, 109
Kasparov, Garry, 39; versus Deep Blue, 39
Kratsios, Michael, 86
Kubrick, Stanley, 35. See also 2001: A Space Odyssey
La Mettrie, Julien Offray de, 22
Law enforcement: in optimistic scenario of future, 176; in pragmatic scenario of future, 199; social policing in China, 80
Leadership, need for courageous, 246
Learned helplessness: in pragmatic scenario of future, 190–201
Learning. See AlphaGo; AlphaGo Zero; Learning machines; Machine learning; Watson
Learning machines, 30, 31–32. See also AlphaGo; AlphaGo Zero; Watson
Lecun, Yann, 41, 42, 59
Lee, Peter, 122
Legg, Shane, 43
Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm von, 20, 21, 27; step reckoner, 21, 24
Levesque, Hector, 50
Li, Fei-Fei, 65
Li, Robin, 67, 82, 129
Li Deng, 43
LibriSpeech, 181
Life expectancy: in catastrophic scenario of future, 225
Lighthill, James, 37, 38
Liu Guozhi, 79
Logic Theorist program, 30, 34
Lovelace, Ada, 23, 259; Analytical Engine, 23, 24; Difference Engine, 23
Lyft, BAT investment in, 72
Ma, Jack, 68, 69, 70
Ma Huateng, 70
Machine learning, 29, 31, 32–33, 36, 41, 77, 93, 114; algorithms, 123, 183, 237; machines playing games, 38–50; models, 49, 91; platforms, 91; systems, 182, 184, 257; techniques, 253; technologies, 110. See also Deep learning; TensorFlow
Magic Leap: BAT investment in, 72; in optimistic future scenario, 165
Manning, Toby, 44
Mao Zedong, 6, 73, 80, 82, 223
McCarthy, John, 29–30, 31, 37–38, 259. See also Dartmouth Workshop
McCulloch, Warren, 26; neural network theory, 26–27
McGill University, 60
Medicine, personalized: in catastrophic scenario of future, 224
Medopad, Tencent partnership with, 71
Megvii, 5
Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation, 38
Microsoft, 2, 3, 85, 96; AI apps in Azure Cloud, 119; AI chip development, 92; in catastrophic scenario of future, 209, 215, 223; classified data certificate, 101; computer vision, 119; consumer connections to, 88; Cortana, 119; Edge computing, 90, 119; FATE team, 129; GitHub acquisition, 92; machine reading comprehension, 119; mixed reality headset, 92; natural language processing, 119; in optimistic scenario of future, 159, 165, 171; in pragmatic scenario of future, 186, 188, 201; senior leadership, 56; Tencent experimental project with, 119; Xiaoice/Tay.ai debacle, 118–122
Minsky, Gloria, 30
Minsky, Marvin, 29, 30, 31, 41, 259; predictions about intelligent machine, 34–35. See also Dartmouth Workshop
MIT, 34, 60, 67; Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), 65, 111; Media Lab, 61
Mixed-reality products and services: G-MAFIA partnerships in optimistic scenario of future, 160–161, 165
Mobile operating systems, 139, 188, 191
Montreal, Canada: desired location of GAIA, 235–236
Moore, Gordon, 36; “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits,” 36
Moore’s law, 36, 38, 147
Morgenstern, Oskar, 27; game theory and, 27
Mouton, Jean, 16
Mozart, Wolfgang Amadeus, 16
Music: composed by AI system, 15–16; in optimistic scenario of future, 174–175. See also names of specific composers; Amper
Musk, Elon, 193
Nadella, Satya, 120, 122
Nagging, healthy-lifestyle: in pragmatic scenario of future, 194
Nanny AGIs (NAGIs): in pragmatic scenario of future, 202–203, 205
Nanobots, catastrophic scenario of future and: abortions induced by, 225; deaths induced by, 225–226; health monitoring and treatment, 224–226
NASNet, 49, 149
National Academy of Sciences: advisory committee on AI, 37
National service program, AI, 249
Natural language simulation, 30, 34
Nemesis, 41
Neural networks, 30; introduction of concept, 26–27; McCulloch and Pitts’ theory, 26–27; as part of AI ecosystem, 17; Turing concept of, 27–29; workshopping, 41. See also Artificial neural networks (ANNs); Deep neural networks (DNNs)
New York University, 65
Newell, Allen, 30, 34; Logic Theorist program, 30, 34. See also Dartmouth Workshop
Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, 4–5
Ng, Andrew, 67, 68
Nicolelis, Miguel, 204
Nowist thinking, 4
Nudging: 122–123; by Big Nine, 123; healthy-lifestyle, 162–163