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The Big Nine

Page 33

by Amy Webb


  Obama administration, 2016 AI plan of, 179

  Ockeghem, Johannes, 16

  Odd paradox, 13

  Office of Net Assessment, 247

  Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), reinstatement of, 246–247; renaming, 247

  OICQ, 70

  OmniVision smart glasses: in catastrophic scenario of future, 221

  Open source, 92

  Ops, 146

  Optimization effect, 113, 114–122, AI system glitches and, 117–122

  Organization Data Records: in catastrophic scenario of future, 226

  Outlook, 215

  Page, Larry, 99. See also Alphabet; Google

  Palantir, 87

  Parrot attacks: in pragmatic scenario of future, 193

  Pascal, Blaise, 20–21

  Patagonia, 210

  Peking University, China Credit Research Center at, 80

  Peloton, 87

  People’s Liberation Army, 78

  People’s Republic of China (PRC), Centennial of, 223

  Perception system, 32

  Personal data records (PDRs), catastrophic scenario of future and, 208–209, 218, 226; as social credit score, 209; corporate ownership of, 209

  Personal data records (PDRs), optimistic scenario of future and, 152–153; China and, 152, 154; as heritable, 153; individual ownership of, 159; privacy and, 168; treated as distributed ledgers, 159

  Personal data records (PDRs), pragmatic scenario of future and: G-MAFIA ownership, 187; linked to insurance premium, 194; third-party use, 189

  Personally identifiable information (PII), 237; need for citizen-owned, 237

  Pets, robotic: in optimistic scenario of future, 162

  Pharmacists and pharmacies: computational in optimistic scenario of future, 173

  Pichai, Sundar, 64–65, 101

  Pitts, Walter, 26; neural network theory, 26–27

  Plato, 17

  Police Cloud, 6, 82

  Portal, 54

  Pratt, Gill, 149

  Privacy: Chinese view of, 79–82; Cook, Tim, on future of, 95; G-MAFIA commitment to in optimistic scenario of future, 168; PDRs and in optimistic scenario of future, 168

  Processors: as part of AI ecosystem, 17

  Project Maven, 78–79; Google employee resignations and, 79, 101

  Purcell, Henry, 16

  Python programming language, 60

  R programming language, 60

  Recursive self-improvement, 149

  Regulations, government: eliminating most for G-MAFIA AI development, 250

  Reinforcement learning, 49

  Réngōng Zhinéng (Artificial Intelligence) Dynasty: in catastrophic scenario of future, 223, 229, 233

  Reward hacking, pragmatic scenario of future and, 183

  Robots, physical: Electro the Moto-Man, 25; in film and TV, 2; harassment by in pragmatic scenario of future, 199; physical danger from, 58. See also Automata; Automaton, first; Pets, robotic

  Rochester, Nathaniel, 29. See also Dartmouth Workshop

  Rongcheng, China, 81, 168

  Rosenblatt, Frank, 32, 34, 41; Perception system, 32–33. See also Dartmouth Workshop

  Royal Dutch Shell company, 141–142

  Rubin, Andy, 55

  Rus, Daniela, 65

  Russell, Bertrand: Principia Mathematica, 30–31

  Ryder, Jon, 41

  Safety issues, AI: robots, 58; self-driving cars, 58. See also Accidents and mistakes, AI

  Safety standards, AI: establishment of global, 251

  Salieri, Antonio, 16

  Scenario planning, 141; Royal Dutch Shell company use of, 141–142. See also Scenarios

  Scenarios, 141; as cognitive bias behavioral economics coping tool, 142; preferred outcomes and, 141; probability neglect and, 142; purpose of, 143. See also Future and AI, catastrophic scenario of; Future and AI, optimistic scenario of; Future and AI, pragmatic scenario of

  Schmidt, Eric, 211–212

  Self-driving taxi services, catastrophic scenario of future and: Amazon riders, 218–219; Google riders, 219

  SenseTime, 5

  Sentinel AIs, need for, 241

  Shannon, Claude, 24, 25, 29, 31; “A Symbolic Analysis of Switching Relay Circuits,” 24. See also Dartmouth Workshop

  SharePoint, 215

  Shaw, Cliff, 30. See also Dartmouth Workshop

  Shopping, brick-and-mortar store: in optimistic scenario of future, 162

  Simon, Herbert, 30, 34; Logic Theorist program, 30, 34. See also Dartmouth Workshop

  Siri, 13, 43, 119

  Skype, 215

  Smart city pilot programs: in optimistic scenario of future, 168, 176

  Smart glasses: Apple, 161; Applezon, 191; in catastrophic scenario of future, 221; Google, 191; in pragmatic scenario of future, 191, 192

  Smartphones: Apple, 94; in pragmatic scenario of future, 191

  Social Credit Score system, 6, 80, 82, 152, 154, 209; in Rongcheng, 81; tradeoffs for desirable, 211

  Socrates, 17

  Sorenson, Arne, 75

  South China Morning Post, 69–70

  Southern, Taryn, 15

  SpaceX, 87

  Splinternets, 83; pragmatic scenario of future and, 198

  Spy birds, 77–78

  Stanford, 60, 63; Artificial Intelligence Lab, 65

  Stasis: among U.S. policymakers and think tanks, 213; cigarette smoking danger and, 213; climate change and, 213

  Step reckoner, 21, 24

  Subscription model, smart wearables and tools: in pragmatic scenario of future, 192–193

  Suleyman, Mustafa, 43, 117

  Summit supercomputer, 146

  Sunstein, Cass, 142

  Supercomputers, 146

  Surveillance capitalism, 95

  Sweeney, Latanya, 113–114, 122

  Syllogistic logic, Aristotle and, 18

  Synthetic data, 182

  Tanzania, 83, 200, 210

  Taobao, 68–69

  Technology, deployment of: need for technical simulations and risk mapping before, 241–242

  Tencent, 3, 5, 9, 49, 65, 67, 70–71, 96, 158; cloud service, 71; conversational interfaces, 76; corporate slogan, 70; digital assistant, 71; facial and object recognition lab, 71; healthcare partnerships, 71, 76; management philosophy, 100; market value, 71; mobile payment system, 71, 186; movie studio, 71; original product, 70; pharmaceutical company investments, 71

  Tencent Pictures, 71

  Tenpay, 71, 186

  Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), 91

  TensorFlow, 91, 92, 139

  TensorFlow Object Detection API, 91

  TensorFlow-GAN, 91

  Terminator, The: Skynet, 2

  Tesla, BAT investment in, 72

  Thinking machines, 23, 24, 25, 35, 36, 50–51, 60, 98, 106, 127, 135, 138, 149, 150, 154; ceding control to, 131; computers as, 22; first, 145; generally intelligent, 159, 189

  Thousand Talents Plan, 84–85

  Tiān Māo, 13

  Tianhe-1 supercomputer, 146

  Tinsley, Marlon, 39; versus CHINOOK, 39

  Transparency: among G-MAFIA in catastrophic scenario of future, 208; G-MAFIA Coalition adoption of as core value in optimistic scenario of future, 157; in pragmatic scenario of future, 188. See also Transparency standards

  Transparency standards: establishment of for Big Nine, 251; establishment of global, 252

  Tribes, AI: anti-humanistic bias in, 57; characteristics, 56; groupthink, 53; homogeneity, 52; lack of diversity, 56; leaders, 53–65; need to address diversity within, 57–58; sexual assault and harassment by members, 55–56; unconscious bias training programs and, 56; unconscious biases of members, 52; university education and homogeneity of members, 58–61, 64

  Trudeau, Justin, 236

  TrueNorth neuromorphic chip, 92

  Trump, Donald: administration, 70, 75, 85; campaign climate change comments, 75; science and technology research budget cuts, 243

  Turing, Alan, 24–25, 26, 27–29, 30, 31, 35, 259; morphogenesis theor
y, 204; neural network concept, 27–29;“On Computable Numbers, With an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem,” 24. See also Turing Test

  Turing test, 27–28, 50, 146, 169, 184

  Turriano, Juanelo: mechanical monk creation of, 18, 25

  Tversky, Amos, 108

  2000 HUB5 English, 181

  2001: A Space Odyssey, 2, 35: HAL 9000, 2, 35, 39

  U.S. Army: ENIAC, 27; Futures Command, 212

  U.S. Department of Energy, Summit supercomputer and, 146

  U.S. Digital Service, 212

  U.S. Government: AI working knowledge necessary for leaders/managers/policymakers, 242; competition with G-MAFIA for computer scientists and, 248–249; defunding of AI R&D program, 179; deprioritizing AI/advanced science research, 179; ignoring G-MAFIA, 86; installing AI experts in, 242; internal capacity for AI research/testing/deployment, 242; necessary changes by, 242–250; need for reasonable AI budget, 244; reliance on G-MAFIA, 86; transactional relationship with G-MAFIA in catastrophic scenario of future, 212; view of G-MAFIA as strategic partners, 249–250. See also names of specific departments and services of the U.S. government

  Uber, 87; BAT investment in, 72

  Uighurs, 6

  Ultraintelligence machine, 33

  Unemployment. See Job displacement and unemployment; Job search and AI

  Université de Montréal, 60

  Universities: as AI hubs, 60; China’s brain drain from North American, 84; ethics courses, 61, 63; homogeneity of AI tribe members and, 58–61, 64; offering hybrid degrees, 256; inclusive recruiting by, 257; integration of ethics into courses, 256; women professors, 65. See also names of specific universities

  University of California, Berkeley, 60, 67

  University of Washington, 60

  Values: Big Nine shared, 100; cataloging basic, 237; decision-making and personal, 108–113; defining basic, 237; economic, 100, 102; gap, 102; humanity’s shared, 122–126; social, 100–101, 102; technological, 100, 102. See also Values algorithms, Big Nine

  Values algorithms, Big Nine, 99–103; Alibaba, 100; Amazon, 99; Facebook, 100; Google, 99, 101–102; missing, 100; Tencent, 100

  Vietnam, adoption of China’s cybersecurity laws by, 83

  Vivaldi, Antonio, 16

  von Neumann, John, 27, 30, 89; game theory and, 27

  von Neumann bottleneck, 89–90

  Voting, consideration of AI and future when, 258

  War Games: WOPR, 2

  Warner, Mark: 2018 policy paper for tech giants, 94

  Washington Post, 70

  Watson, 39, 167, 215; versus Ken Jennings, 39, 259

  Watson-Calico Health System: pragmatic scenario of future and, 195, 196, 204

  Watson Health, 181–182, 194

  WaveNet, 48; DeepMind and, 117

  WeChat, 70, 81, 119; number of users, 70, 71

  Weibo, 6, 119

  Weiyun, 71

  Weizenbaum, Joseph: ELIZA program, 34

  Westinghouse, Electro the Moto-Man creation of, 25

  Westworld: Delores, 2

  Whitehead, Alfred North: Principia Mathematica, 30–31

  WikiText, 181

  Winograd schema, 50

  Women: AI researchers, 64; computer science PhDs, 64; as university professors, 65

  Word2vec, 61

  Workforce preparation, computing’s third era and: optimistic scenario of, 157

  Workplace bias, evaluation of by citizen/consumer, 258. See also Big Nine

  World Wide Web, decentralization of, 137

  World’s Fair, 1939, 25

  Wu, John, 67

  Xi Jinping, 5, 6, 7, 73–74, 75, 76, 82–83, 86, 150, 210, 212–213, 245; in catastrophic scenario of future, 223; long-term strategic AI plan, 93; in pragmatic scenario of future, 185–186, 189; public release of CCP’s AI plans, 243; 13th five-year plan and, 73

  Xiaoice/Tay.ai, 118, 119–122. See also Microsoft

  Xiaowei, 71

  XtalPi, Tencent investment in, 71

  Xu, Eric, 67

  Yahoo, 67; email, 139

  YouTu Lab, 71

  Zhang Zhidong, 70

  Zhima Credit service, 81–82

  Zuckerberg, Mark, 56; post-Cambridge Analytica debacle apology, 54, 94

  PublicAffairs is a publishing house founded in 1997. It is a tribute to the standards, values, and flair of three persons who have served as mentors to countless reporters, writers, editors, and book people of all kinds, including me.

  I.F. STONE, proprietor of I. F. Stone’s Weekly, combined a commitment to the First Amendment with entrepreneurial zeal and reporting skill and became one of the great independent journalists in American history. At the age of eighty, Izzy published The Trial of Socrates, which was a national bestseller. He wrote the book after he taught himself ancient Greek.

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