The Robots Are Coming!

by Andres Oppenheimer

  “Whether people like it or not”: Patton, “Sushi Robots and Vending Machine Pizza.”

  “Research shows that many appreciate”: Andy Puzder, “Why Restaurant Automation Is on the Menu,” Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2016, www.wsj.com/​articles/​why-restaurant-automation-is-on-the-menu-1458857730.

  “This is not a vending machine”: Patton, “Sushi Robots and Vending Machine Pizza.”

  “Millennials, accustomed to apps”: Ibid.

  Altogether, they generate annual sales of over $60 billion: Harrison Jacobs, “Japan’s Vending Machines Tell You a Lot About the Country’s Culture,” Business Insider, January 23, 2017: www.businessinsider.com/​why-so-many-vending-machines-in-japan-2017-1.

  “Listening to a recitation of the specials”: Andrew McAfee, “Future Restaurant Waiters Will Respond to Taps Instead of Tips,” Financial Times, September 10, 2015, www.ft.com/​content/​88e2a58a-57b2-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.

  “the low-labor Eatsa concept”: Puzder, “Why Restaurant Automation Is on the Menu.”

  In 2017, Macy’s: Hayley Peterson, “The Retail Apocalypse Is Creating a ‘Slow Rolling Crisis’ That Is Rippling Through the U.S. Economy,” Business Insider, April 17, 2017, www.businessinsider.com/​retail-job-losses-are-hurting-the-economy-2017-4.

  Amazon could have annual revenue: Rex Nutting, “Amazon Is Going to Kill More American Jobs Than China Did,” MarketWatch.com, March 15, 2017, www.marketwatch.com/​story/​amazon-is-going-​to-kill-more-​american-jobs-than-​china-did-​2017-01-19.

  “every job created at Amazon destroys”: Ibid.

  Amazon needs many fewer workers: Ibid.

  “No lines. No checkout”: “Introducing Amazon Go,” YouTube, December 5, 2016, www.youtube.com/​watch?v=NrmMk1Myrxc.

  “we were afraid that people would get scared”: Marco Mascorro, interview with the author, San Jose, California, May 8, 2017.

  “Before, employees had to spend hours”: Ibid.

  “the one device to disrupt and rule”: “Future Reality: Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality,” Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, September 22, 2016.

  Amazon…went from having: Todd Bishop, “Amazon Soars to More Than 341K Employees,” Geekwire.com, February 2, 2017.

  e-commerce created 355,000 U.S. jobs: Michael Mandel and Bret Swanson, “The Coming Productivity Boom,” Technology CEO Council, March 2017, www.techceocouncil.org/​clientuploads/​reports/​TCC%20Productivity%20Boom%20FINAL.pdf.

  “Production and non-supervisory workers”: Michael Mandel, “How E-commerce Is Raising Pay and Creating Jobs Around the Country,” Forbes, April 3, 2017, www.forbes.com/​sites/​realspin/​2017/​04/​03/​how-e-commerce-is-raising-pay-and-creating-jobs-around-the-country/​#a60a78f6dff5.

  “Look at the way the Apple store”: Bret Swanson, telephone interview with the author, April 14, 2017.

  “we’re not building a mega-mall”: Douglas Hanks, “Nation’s Largest Mall Wins County Approval,” Miami Herald, May 18, 2018.

  “He said, ‘Ron, you might have’ ”: Roger Fingas, “Steve Jobs Initially Blasted Genius Bars at Apple Stores, Says Former Retail Head,” Appleinsider.com, March 6, 2016, appleinsider.com/​articles/​17/​03/​06/​steve-jobs-initially-blasted-genius-bars-at-apple-stores-says-former-retail-head.

  4. THEY’RE COMING FOR BANKERS!

  “nonhuman contact”: Citi GPS, “Digital Disruption: How FinTech Is Forcing Banking to a Tipping Point,” March 2016, www.nist.gov/​sites/​default/​files/​documents/​2016/​09/​15/​citi_rfi_response.pdf.

  And in 2015 alone, the largest banks: Laura Noonan and Martin Arnold, “Thousands More Bank Jobs Under Threat,” Financial Times, December 13, 2015, www.ft.com/​content/​5b8c94e0–9f8f-11e5-8613-08e211ea5317.

  A study by Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions (GPS): Portia Crowe, “The ‘Uber Moment’ for Banks Is Coming—and More Than a Million People Could Lose Their Jobs,” Business Insider, March 30, 2016, www.businessinsider.com/​bank-layoffs-are-coming-2016-3.

  “that figure could easily double”: “Retail Banking: Withdrawal Symptoms,” The Economist, July 29, 2017, www.economist.com/​news/​finance-and-economics/​21725596-banks-have-shuttered-over-10000-financial-crisis-closing-american.

  “We agree with Antony Jenkins’ comment”: Citi GPS, “Digital Disruption.”

  The experiment worked so well: Author’s telephone interview with Gastón Bottazzini, CEO of Banco Falabella, March 3, 2018.

  “Roughly 60 to 70 percent of retail banking employees”: Citi GPS, “Digital Disruption.”

  “branches and associated staff costs”: Ibid.

  Bills and coins now represent: Liz Alderman, “In Sweden, a Cash-free Culture Nears,” New York Times, December 26, 2015, www.nytimes.com/​2015/​12/​27/​business/​international/​in-sweden-a-cash-free-future-nears.html.

  “Cash isn’t necessarily expensive”: Anette Broløs, telephone interview with the author, April 29, 2016.

  “We’ve had cases where the robbers”: Michael Busk-Jepsen, telephone interview with the author, May 9, 2016.

  By 2016, virtual banks: Citi GPS, “Digital Disruption.”

  Goldman Sachs had acquired: Jonathan Marino, “Goldman Sachs Is a Tech Company,” Business Insider, April 12, 2015, www.businessinsider.com.au/​goldman-sachs-has-more-engineers-than-facebook-2015-4.

  But now Kensho’s algorithm: Nathaniel Popper, “The Robots Are Coming for Wall Street,” New York Times, February 25, 2016, www.nytimes.com/​2016/​02/​28/​magazine/​the-robots-are-coming-for-wall-street.html.

  “I’m assuming that the majority”: Ibid.

  “We’ve created, on paper at least”: Ibid.

  “would have taken days”: Ibid.

  “while the data-crunching can be automated”: EY.com, “Transforming Talent: The Banker of the Future,” www.ey.com/​Publication/​vwLUAssets/​ey-transforming-talent-the-banker-of-the-future-global-banking-outlook/$FILE/ey-transforming-talent-the-banker-of-the-future-global-banking-outlook.pdf.

  “algorithms will become”: Karl Meekings, telephone interview with the author, October 19, 2016.

  “when it comes to investing in real estate”: John Garvey, interview with the author, September 16, 2016.

  “There’s always the chance”: Karl Meekings, interview with the author, October 19, 2016.

  “I got into this business”: Jon Stein, “The Digital Future of Finance and Banking,” Techonomy.com, May 30, 2016, techonomy.com/​conf/​nyc/​videos-finance/​jon-stein-digital-future-of-finance-banking/​.

  “your broker might have a bad day”: Ibid.

  “Ultimately, this technology is going to be”: Ibid.

  projected to skyrocket to $1 trillion by 2025: Joe Myers, “Should We Be Worried About the Growth of Peer-to-Peer Lending?” World Economic Forum, February 10, 2016, https://www.weforum.org/​agenda/​2016/​02/​should-we-be-worried-about-the-growth-in-peer-to-peer-lending/​, and Statista.

  founder and CEO, Renaud Laplanche: Oscar Williams-Grut, “LendingClub, the Poster Child of Online Lending, Is in a Life-Threatening Crisis—Here’s What You Need to Know,” Business Insider, May 17, 2016, www.businessinsider.com/​lendingclub-faces-doj-and-sec-investigations-could-buy-more-of-its-loans-2016–5.

  Prosper.com announced: Michael Corkery, “As LendingClub Stumbles, Its Entire Industry Faces Skepticism,” New York Times, May 9, 2016, www.nytimes.com/​2016/​05/​10/​business/​dealbook/​as-lending-club-stumbles-its-entire-industry-faces-skepticism.html.

  “The blockchain could provide a much lower-cost solution”: Alec Ross, The Industries of the Future (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017), 115.

  “a Ponzi game”: Ibid.

  “will undoubtedly be the most important innovation”: Salim Ismail,
telephone interview with the author, January 20, 2017.

  “Consumer banking as we know it”: Ibid.

  “to understand a customer’s need”: “Retail Banking 2020: Evolution or Revolution,” PwC, 32, www.pwc.com/​gx/​en/​banking-capital-markets/​banking-2020/​assets/​pwc-retail-banking-2020-evolution-or-revolution.pdf.

  “areas of significant effort”: Ibid., 23.

  “The technological areas of the banking industry”: Karl Meekings, telephone interview with the author, October 19, 2016.

  “Banking the unbanked (urban and rural)”: “Retail Banking 2020: Evolution or Revolution,” PwC, 32.

  “we will see a democratization”: John Garvey, interview with the author, September 16, 2016.

  “the banker of the future”: EY.com, “Transforming Talent.”

  Globally, women control 65 percent: Ibid.

  “there is a positive correlation”: Ibid.

  5. THEY’RE COMING FOR LAWYERS!

  “ROSS is not a way to replace our attorneys”: Karen Turner, “Meet ‘Ross,’ the Newly Hired Legal Robot,” Washington Post, May 16, 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/​news/​innovations/​wp/​2016/​05/​16/​meet-ross-the-newly-hired-legal-robot/​?utm_term=.56448fc96274.

  “goal is to have ROSS”: Ibid.

  in the United Kingdom alone, 31,000 law-related jobs: “More Than 100,000 Legal Roles to Become Automated,” Financial Times, March 15, 2016, www.ft.com/​content/​c8ef3f62-ea9c-11e5-888e-2eadd5fbc4a4.

  “two-thirds of lawyers”: Victor Li, ABA Journal, “What Will Lawyers Be Doing in 5 to 10 Years?” May 18, 2016, www.abajournal.com/​lawscribbler/​article/​what_will_lawyers_be_doing_in_5_to_10_years.

  “we really haven’t been impacted”: Abraham C. Reich, interview with the author, February 6, 2017.

  “Despite not being a lawyer”: Twitter account of @JBrowder1, December 11, 2017.

  by the end of 2017: John Mannes, “Donotpay Launches 1,000 Bots to Help You with Your Legal Problems,” Techcrunch.com, July 12, 2017.

  “As part of the funding”: “Joshua Browder’s Donotpay Gets $1.1 Million Investment from Top VC Funds,” artificiallawyer.com, November 6, 2017, www.artificiallawyer.com/​2017/​11/​06/​joshua-browders-donotpay-gets-1-1m-investment-from-top-vc-fund/.

  There are already three times as many: Richard Susskind and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts (New York: Oxford University Press, reprint ed., 2017), 1.

  “Right now, Modria promises”: Benjamin Barton, “Modria and the Future of Dispute Resolution,” October 1, 2015, Big Law Business, biglawbusiness.com/​modria-and-the-future-of-dispute-resolution/​.

  “There were huge piles of paper”: Alec Ross, The Industries of the Future (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017), 116.

  “a struggle between the past and the future”: Joe N. Dewey, interview with the author, October 3, 2016; Josias “Joe” N. Dewey, “Warning to Law Firms: The ‘Uberization’ of Law Is Coming…and Fast,” Medium.com, March 1, 2016, legal-tech-blog.de/​warning-to-law-firms-the-uberization-of-law-is-coming-and-fast [inactive].

  “In a ‘technology-based Internet society’ ”: Susskind and Susskind, The Future of the Professions, 2.

  “Imperfection is the norm”: John O. McGinnis and Russell G. Pearce, “The Great Disruption: How Machine Intelligence Will Transform the Role of Lawyers in the Delivery of Legal Services,” Fordham Law Review 82 (May 15, 2014): 3047, fordhamlawreview.org/​wp-content/​uploads/​assets/​pdfs/​Vol_82/​No_6/​McGinnisPearce_May.pdf.

  “the advantage of predictive analytics”: Ibid.

  which law firm or particular lawyer: “Lex Machina Releases New Law Firms Comparator and Courts & Judges Comparator Apps,” September 20, 2016, lexmachina.com/​lex-machina-releases-new-law-firms-comparator-and-courts-judges-comparator-apps/​.

  “Lawyers do more than undertake legal analysis”: McGinnis and Pearce, “The Great Disruption,” 3047.

  “The overall effect of the machine invasion”: Ibid.

  the four largest accounting firms: “Lawyers Beware: The Accountants Are Coming After You,” The Economist, March 21, 2016, www.businessinsider.com/​lawyers-beware-the-accountants-are-coming-after-your-business-2015-3.

  “there’s good news and bad news”: Mark L. Silow, interview with the author, February 6, 2017.

  websites that offer automated tax returns: “Robots Will Soon Do Your Taxes: Bye, Bye, Accounting Jobs,” Wired, February 2, 2017.

  “If you’re a journalist in California”: Sean Captain, “H & R Block’s Watson-Powered Robots Are Here to Help with Your Taxes,” fastcompany.com, February 1, 2017, www.fastcompany.com/​3067800/​hr-blocks-watson-powered-robots-are-here-to-help-with-your-taxes.

  “reviewed the claim”: “Peer-to-Peer Insurance: When Life Throws You Lemons,” The Economist, March 11, 2017, www.economist.com/​news/​finance-and-economics/​21718502-future-insurance-named-after-soft-drink-new-york-startup-shakes-up.

  “The industry is still astonishingly reliant”: “The Future of Insurance: Counsel of Protection,” The Economist, March 11, 2017, https://www.economist.com/​news/​finance-and-economics/​21718501-technological-change-and-competition-disrupt-complacent-industry-coming.

  6. THEY’RE COMING FOR DOCTORS!

  “robots will not replace surgeons”: Moshe Shoham, interview with the author, Caesarea, Israel, December 26, 2016.

  Watson can digest information: Jonathan Cohn, “The Robot Will See You,” The Atlantic, March 18, 2013, www.theatlantic.com/​magazine/​archive/​2013/​03/​the-robot-will-see-you-now/​309216/​.

  “Most doctors couldn’t possibly read and digest”: Vinod Khosla, “Technology Will Replace 80% of What Doctors Do,” Fortune, December 4, 2012, fortune.com/​2012/​12/​04/​technology-will-replace-80-of-what-doctors-do/​.

  “We’re moving from an intermittent”: Daniel Kraft, Skype interview with the author, January 30, 2017.

  “serve as a filter”: Vivek Wadhwa and Alex Salkever, The Driver in the Driverless Car (Oakland, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, 2017).

  while an experienced pathologist: Yun Liu et al., “Detecting Cancer Metastases on Gigapixel Pathology Images,” drive.google.com/​file/​d/0B1T58bZ5vYa-QlR0QlJTa2dPWVk/​view.

  operations performed by robots: “Rise of the Surgical Robot and What Doctors Want,” Reuters, July 28, 2016, fortune.com/​2016/​07/​28/​surgical-robot-development-intuitive-surgical-medtronic-google/​.

  “Technology is the next phase”: Deepak Chopra, interview with the author, Miami, February 12, 2017.

  7. THEY’RE COMING FOR TEACHERS!

  “When children find something interesting”: Andy Rifkin, interview with the author, January 23, 2017.

  “It’s great to have a tutor”: Randall Bass, telephone interview with the author, March 18, 2017.

  “This tool turns teachers into superheroes”: Benjamin Schrom, interview with the author, Mountain View, California, May 8, 2017.

  “We also identify longer-term risks”: “Future Reality: Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality,” Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, September 22, 2016, 38.

  a group of children who had participated: Ibid.

  “role-play VR games can exacerbate social isolation”: Ibid.

  “what was once done in the classroom”: Andrés Oppenheimer, Innovate or Die! (New York: Penguin Random House, 2016), 227.

  “I’ve done things to make my parents happy”: Peter Diamandis, at an executive conference of Singularity University, May 8, 2017.

  “You’d be amazed at how many people don’t”: Peter Diamandis, “Reinventing How We Teach Our Kids,” Tech Blog, www.diamandis.com/​blog/​reinventing-how-we-teach-our-kids.

  “‘Becom
e an expert in quantum physics’ ”: Peter Diamandis, at an executive conference of Singularity University, May 8, 2017.

  “The employers told us”: Gabriel Sánchez Zinny, director of INET, interview with the author, February 4, 2017.

  “expand apprenticeships and vocational training”: Sarah Kessler, “What You Should Know About Apprenticeships, Trump’s Answer to the Skills Gap,” Quartz.com, June 15, 2017, qz.com/​1005062/​trumps-plan-for-job-training-involves-apprenticeships-heres-what-you-should-know/​.

  That helps Germany maintain: Katherine S. Newman and Hella Winston, “Make America Make Again: Training Workers for the New Economy,” Foreign Affairs, January 2017, www.foreignaffairs.com/​articles/​2016-12-12/make-america-make-again.

  “our population is getting older”: Shin Sang-yeol, interview with the author, March 30, 2017.

  “I get up at six-thirty in the morning”: Surim Kim, interview with the author, Seoul, South Korea, March 30, 2017.

  among the top scorers: Andrés Oppenheimer, “Why South Koreans Are Richer Than Latin Americans,” Miami Herald, April 5, 2017.

  “While it’s true there are successful college dropouts”: Jonathan Wai and Heiner Rindermann, “The Successful College Dropout Is a Myth,” The Conversation, theconversation.com/​the-myth-of-the-college-dropout-75760.

  “The occupations with the highest estimated automatability”: Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini, “Automation, Skills Use, and Training,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers No. 202, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://pmb.cereq.fr/​doc_num.php?explnum_id=4268.

  there are around 78 million people: Dhawai Shah, “By the Numbers, MOOCs in 2017,” January 18, 2018, www.class-central.com/​report/​mooc-stats-2017/​.

  “In some fields, the ratio”: Rafael Reif, interview with the author, June 10, 2016.