Book Read Free

Big Mistakes

Page 17

by Michael Batnick

trading level, 5

  value, losses, 142

  Dreman, David, 76

  Dropbox, Sacca noninvestment, 150–151

  Druckenmiller, Stanley, 97 earnings, 101

  errors, 157

  fame, 100–101

  yen bet, 103

  Duquesne Capital Management, 102

  Dynamic conservatism, 50

  Economic Consequences of the Peace, The, (Keynes), 122

  E.F. Hutton, founding, 17

  Einhorn, David, 27

  Ellis, Charlie, 38, 99

  Emotions, control, 93

  Endowment effect, 75

  fund, Keynes control, 123

  Energizer Holdings, value, 91

  Enron, 113–114

  eToys, valuation, 58

  Exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), 157 Graham recognition, 7

  leverage, 131, 159

  proliferation, 57

  Exchange‐traded notes (ETNs), proliferation, 57

  Explorer Fund, decline, 50

  Exxon Mobil, shareholder wealth, 109

  Facebook acquisition, 150

  Fairchild Camera, trading level, 70

  FAZ, 159

  Federal Reserve interest rate increase, 61

  quantitative easing program, 134–135

  Federal Reserve Bank of New York takeover, 42

  Federal Reserve Board, 39

  Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Herbalife charges, 93–94

  Ferriss, Tim, 150

  Fidelity Capital Fund, 68

  Fidelity Capital, initiation, 71

  Fidelity Funds, 68

  Fight or flight system, 27

  Financial commitments, 163

  Financial crisis, aftermath, 134–135

  First Index Investment Trust initiation, 51–52

  performance, 52

  Float, 79

  Fooled by Randomness (Taleb), 42

  Foreign stocks, 60–61

  Frankel, Bethenny, 163

  Freud, Sigmund, 9

  Fundamentals, 100

  Futures contracts, usage, 131

  Galbraith, John Kenneth, 67, 121

  Gates, Bill, 57

  General Electric shareholder wealth, 109

  stock market valuation, examination, 6

  General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, (Keynes), 121, 124

  Generation Z, 151

  George, David Lloyd, 122

  Gerber, comparison, 91

  Global monetary system, 122

  Go‐go, term (usage), 49

  Go‐Go years, 48–50, 59

  Go‐Go Years, The, (Brooks), 68

  Gold purchase, 105

  value, loss, 135

  Goodwyn, Jerry, 68

  Google, compounding, 139–140

  GoPro, 150

  Gotham Partners, 88 closure, 89

  Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO), 78 Buffett interest, 78–79

  Gracian, Baltasar, 131

  Graham, Benjamin, 1, 3, 78, 157 Dean of Wall Street, 3

  teachings, 11

  Graham Corporation, arbitrage techniques, 7

  Graham‐Newman Corporation, 9

  Grant, Ulysses S., 29–30

  Great Crash, The, (Galbraith), 67

  Great Depression, 48, 52, 68, 126, 147 Dow value, losses, 142

  Great Financial Recession, 142–143

  Griffin, Dale, 81

  Griffin, Tren, 81

  Grove, Andy, 57

  Gutfreund, John, 39

  Haghani, Victor J., 39

  Harris, Hutton & Company, 17

  Harris, John B., 111

  Hartford Accident Insurance Company (Twain investment), 28

  Hartford Courant (Hawley ownership), 29

  Hawking, Stephen, 37

  Hawkins, Gregory, 39

  Hawley, Joseph Roswell, 29

  Heath, Thomas, 114

  “Hedge Fund Miseries” (Steinhardt), 59

  Heinze, Augustus/Otto, 19

  Hemingway, Ernest, 28

  Herbalife Ackman crusade, 3, 90–92

  FTC charges, 93–94

  sales, 91

  stock, increase, 92

  Heuristics, dangers, 16

  H.H. Brown, Berkshire purchase, 79–81

  High‐frequency trading Graham recognition, 7

  Hilibrand, Lawrence, 39

  Hindsight bias, 148

  Hong Kong Land & Development Authority, investments, 40

  Housing bubble, 132–133

  Huckleberry Finn (Twain), 28

  Human beings, motivation, 147

  Hutton, Edward, 17

  IBM investment, 50

  shareholder wealth, 109

  trading level, 70

  Icahn, Carl, 92

  Ignorance, Confidence, and Filthy Rich Friends, (Krass), 27–28

  Index funds creation, 47, 52

  momentum, 47

  “Inflated Treasuries and Deflated Stockholders,” 8

  Information impact, 119–120

  processing inability, 87

  Initial coin offering (ICO), 148

  Insolvency, rules, 31

  Instagram, Sacca investment, 149

  Insurance payments, problems, 134

  Intelligent Investor, The, (Graham), 4, 6, 121

  Interest rates, Federal Reserve increase, 61

  International bonds, US bonds (spreads), 41

  Internet stocks, overvaluation, 104

  Intrinsic value, determination, 5

  Inverse ETF, purchase, 23

  Investing purpose, 119

  risk management, 23

  uncertainty, 23

  Investment values, 6

  Investors appraisal, 6

  cognitive/emotional biases, 5–6

  expectations, 120

  information usage, 87

  preference, change, 47

  searches, 5

  Irrational confidence, 161

  Irrational Exuberance (Shiller), 126

  Irving, Henry, 30

  Ivest Fund, 49–50

  J.C. Penney, Ackman targeting, 90

  Jobs, Steve, 148

  Johnson, Edward, 68, 69

  Johnson, Ned, 69

  Jonas, Stan, 39

  Jones, Paul Tudor, 15, 52, 103, 119, 159

  Jordan, Michael, 105

  JP Morgan, liquidity, 19

  Kahneman, Daniel, 5, 15, 75, 87

  Kahn, Irving, 4

  Keller, Helen, 31

  Kennedy Slide, The, 70

  Keynes, John Maynard, 117, 121, 157 education, 122

  endowment fund control, 123

  First Bursar, 123

  Kickstarter, Sacca investment, 149

  King's College assets, decline, 126

  endowment, 123–124

  Estates Committee memo, 125

  Klarman, Seth, 57

  Knetsch, Jack Louis, 75

  Kovner, Bruce, 103

  Krass, Peter, 27

  Kuwait, pension fund, 40

  Leverage, impact, 41

  Lewis, Michael, 39

  Listerine, comparison, 91

  Little Book of Common Sense Investing, The, (Bogle), 159

  Livermore, Jesse (JL), 13, 15–16 bankruptcy, 21

  Boy Plunger, 18, 20

  lesson, 22

  rebound, 19

  windfall, evaporation, 18

  Loeb, Dan, 92

  Long‐Term Capital Management (LTCM), 104 arbitrage strategies, 41

  fall, 42

  Federal Reserve Bank of New York takeover, 42

  founding, 38–39

  problems, Russia (impact), 41

  success, 40–41

  Long‐term investment program, building, 62

  Loomis, Carol, 40, 41

  “Loser's Game, The” (Ellis), 38

  Lowell Shoe, 80

  Lowenstein, Roger, 4, 7, 68

  Lowercase Capital, 149

  Macro traders, problems, 103

  Manhattan Fund (Tsai), 69, 71

  Margin of safety,
5, 8

  Market capitalization, 7

  growth, 120

  psychological forces, impact, 124

  Market participants, stock motivation, 109

  Market Wizards (Schwager), 159

  Markowitz, Harry, 147, 152

  Marron, Donald, 40

  Marx, Karl, 4

  Mauboussin, Michael, 38, 100, 131

  MBIA, Inc. Ackman targeting, 90

  credit default swaps, 133

  McDonald's, Ackman targeting, 89–90

  Mensa, 37–38

  Meriwether, John, 35, 38

  Merrill Lynch, 40

  Merton, Robert, 39 Nobel Prize in Economics, 40–41

  Microsoft, shareholder wealth, 109

  Mohawk Data, trading level, 70

  Money Game, The, (Smith), 68

  Morgan Growth Fund, decline, 50

  Morgan, Walter, 47–48

  Morse, Charles, 19

  Mortgage bonds, insuring, 133

  Mullins, David, 39

  Munger, Charles, 37, 78, 119, 137, 139 investment, 140

  returns, 141

  wealth, compounding, 143

  Mungerisms, 3, 140

  Mutual funds, superiority, 47–48

  NASDAQ 100 index, increase, 57, 143

  NASDAQ Composite, gains, 112

  NASDAQ peak, 105

  National Indemnity, Buffett purchase, 78

  National Mutual, losses, 125

  National Student Marketing, shares purchase, 70

  Nebraska Furniture Mart, store opening, 78

  Neill, Humphrey B., 67

  Netflix, 139–140

  Net working capital, 5 term, usage, 4

  New Century Financial, 134

  Newton, Isaac, 37

  New York Institute of Finance, 4

  New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), 4 listed stock trading, 135

  opening, 147

  shares, trading level (1934), 6–7

  New York Vaporizing Co. (Twain investment), 28

  No Bull (Steinhardt), 58, 60

  Nocera, Joe, 90

  Not safe for work (NSFW), Snapchat categorization, 151

  Nudge (Thaler), 126

  One‐decision stocks, 50

  Options, usage, 131

  Oreos, comparison, 91

  Oregon Transcontinental Railroad, Twain share purchase, 29

  O'Reilly Automotive, Sequoia holding, 111

  Overconfidence, impact, 61, 75–76, 82

  Overtrading, 159

  Paige Compositor Manufacturing Company, 31

  Paige, James, 30

  Paine Webber, Livermore exit, 16

  Palmolive, comparison, 91

  Paulson & Co., founding, 132

  Paulson, John, 3, 129, 131–132 merger/arbitrage, 133

  Pearson, Mike, 113 Buffett, contrast, 114

  Pellegrini, Paolo, 132–133

  Penn Dixie Cement, shares (purchase), 58

  Pershing Square Capital Management, 89

  Pittsburgh National Bank, 101

  Plasmon (Twain investment), 28

  Polaroid, trading level, 70

  Poppe, David, 114

  Portfolio turnover, 69

  Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain (PIIGS), 158

  Post‐go‐go years meltdown, 147

  Post III, William, 131

  Price, Teddy, 19–20

  Princeton University, 47–48

  Private/public investing, history, 149

  Profit sharing, 68

  Prospect Theory (Kahneman/Tversky), 126

  Pyramid schemes, 93

  Qualcomm, gains, 57

  Quantitative easing program, 134–135

  Quantum Fund, 100, 103

  Ramirez, Alberto/Rosa, 132

  Rational thinking, suspension, 27

  Recession, odds (calculation), 38

  Renaissance Technologies, 135

  Return on equity, term (usage), 4

  Reverse crash, 100

  Risk, arrival, 32

  Risk management, 23

  Roaring Twenties, bull market cycle, 7

  Robertson, Julian, 58

  Roche, Cullen, 99

  Rockefeller, John, 30

  Rogers, Henry (“Hell Hound”), 30–32

  Rooney, Frank, 80, 81

  Rosenfeld, Eric, 39, 41

  Ruane, Bill, 4, 109, 112

  Ruane & Cunniff, 112

  Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb, 110–111

  Russell 3000, 135

  Russia, Quantum Fund loss, 103–104

  Sacca, Chris, 145, 149–150

  Salomon Brothers, 39 Buffett investment, 79

  Samuelson, Paul (remarks), 51

  San Francisco Call, 31

  Schloss, Walter, 4

  Schmidt, Eric, 150

  Scholes, Myron, 39 Nobel Prize in Economics, 40–41

  Schroeder, Alice, 80

  Schwager, Jack, 159

  Sears, Ackman targeting, 90

  Sears Holdings, 109

  Securities and Exchange Act, 7

  Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 13D registration, 90

  creation, 22

  Security Analysis (Graham), 3–5

  See's Candy Berkshire Hathaway purchase, 78

  purchase, 142

  Self‐esteem, satisfaction (impact), 75–76

  Sequoia Fund, 107 operation, 110–111

  Shiller, Robert, 75–76, 87

  Short squeeze, 93

  Silvan, Jon, 94

  Simmons, Bill, 151

  Simons, Jim, 135

  Slack, Sacca investment, 149

  Smith, Adam, 68, 121

  Snapchat, 151

  Snap, going public, 151

  Snowball, The, (Schroeder), 80

  Social activities, engagement, 87–88

  Soros Fund Management, losses, 105

  Soros, George, 58, 60, 100, 103 interaction, 102

  reform, 121

  South Sea Company shares, 37

  Speculation, 15 avoidance, 28

  SPY, 62

  Stagecoach Corporate Stock Fund, 52

  Stamp revenues, trading, 141–142

  Standard Oil, 30

  Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P500) ETF, 62

  gains, 112, 114

  performance, comparison, 119

  shorting, 163

  Valeant performance, comparison, 113

  Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Company, opening, 58

  Steinhardt, Michael, 55, 58 performance record, 59–60

  Steinhardt Overseas Fund, 60

  Stoker, Bram, 30

  Stock market, choices, 114–115

  Stocks crashing/reverse crashing, 100

  return, 99

  stock‐picking ability, 88

  Stock trader, training, 18

  Strategic Aggressive Investing Fund, 102

  Sunk cost, 110

  Sun Valley Conference, 57

  “Superinvestors of Graham‐and‐Doddsville, The,” 111–112

  Taleb, Nassim, 42

  Target, Ackman targeting, 90

  TDP&L, 50

  Tech bubble, inflation, 57

  Technivest, 50

  Thaler, Richard H., 75, 126

  Thinking, Fast and Slow, (Kahneman), 15

  Thorndike, Dorain, Paine & Lewis, Inc., 48

  Time horizons, 120

  Time Warner, AOL merger, 49

  Tim Ferriss Show, The, (podcast), 150

  Tim Hortons, spinoff, 89

  Tract on Monetary Reform, A, (Keynes), 125–126

  Trader (Jones), 119

  Trustees Equity Fund, decline, 50

  Tsai, Jerry, 65, 68 stocks, trading, 69

  ten good games, 71

  Tsai Management Research, sale, 70

  Tversky, Amos, 81

  Twain, Mark (Samuel Clemens), 25, 27, 75 bankruptcy filings, 32

  money, losses, 27–32

  public opinion, hypersensitivity, 31

  Twilio, Sacca investment, 149

  Twitter, Sacca
investment, 149–150

  Uber, Sacca investment, 149

  Undervalued issues, selection, 10

  Union Pacific, shares (sale), 18

  United Copper, cornering, 19

  United States housing bubble, 132

  University Computing, trading level, 70

  US bonds international bonds, spreads, 41

  value, decline, 61

  U.S. housing bubble, impact, 132

  U.S. Steel, shares orders, 17

  US stock portfolio, diversification, 109

  U.S. stocks, intra‐year decline, 147

  Valeant Pharmaceuticals, 113 Ackman targeting, 90

  performance, S&P500 comparison, 113

  shares, decline, 114

  Valuation metrics, 160

  Value at risk (VAR), 41–42

  Value investing, function, 10

  Value investors, problems, 58

  Vanguard 500 Index returns, 52

  size, 47

  Vanguard Group, Inc., 51

  VeriSign, Druckenmiller purchase, 104

  Vranos, 133

  Washington Post stocks, problems, 58

  Wayne, Ronald, 148

  Webster & Company bankruptcy, 31

 

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