Understand Politics
Page 5
There are, however, problems associated with extra-parliamentary politics. Violence and public disorder may arise, perhaps based on a desire by a group to achieve political aims through intimidation or coercion rather than through education. In these cases a government may be required to intervene in order to prevent citizens or their property being subject to the threat or actuality of violence. Conventional politics conducted through the ballot box may be viewed as an irrelevant form of activity if other means are widely practised and are seen to be successful, and such actions may also undermine a government’s capacity for governing if it is forced to follow a course of action advocated by groups using extra-parliamentary methods. A government in this situation may appear weak, which may create a desire for the imposition of ‘strong’ government.
OPINION POLLS
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Insight
Various forms of opinion polls are put to a wide range of political purposes which include predicting the outcome of election contests. However, some commentators question the role performed by polls in liberal democratic political affairs.
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Opinion polls seek to determine the views of the public by putting questions to a small group of people. There are several ways in which this group might be selected. The two main ways are through the use of a random or a quota sample. The first addresses questions to a segment of the public who are chosen by a method which lacks scientific construction. In Britain, for example, a random sample might consist of every thousandth name on the register of electors in a particular parliamentary constituency. A quota sample, however, seeks to address questions to a group of people whose composition is determined in advance. By this method, questions are directed at a group who are perceived to be a cross-section of the public whose views are being sought. It will attempt, for example, to reflect the overall balance between old and young people, men and women and working-and middle-class people.
Opinion polls may be utilized to ascertain public feelings on particular issues. The findings of polls can then be incorporated into the policy proposals put forward by political parties. They are especially prominent in election campaigns. They are used to assess the views of voters on particular issues, which may encourage parties to adjust the emphasis of their campaigns (or the content of their policy) to match the popular mood. They are also employed to investigate the outcome of elections by asking voters who they intend to support. The belief that this activity does not merely indicate public feelings but may actually influence voting behaviour (for example, by creating a bandwagon effect for the party judged by the polls to be in the lead) has prompted countries such as France and Italy to ban the publication of poll results close to the actual contest.
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How accurate are opinion polls?
Although opinion polls are widely used they are not consistently accurate, especially when seeking to predict the outcome of an election contest. In 1995 the polls wrongly predicted a major victory for Silvio Berlusconi in the Italian regional elections (which his party lost) and a clear victory for Jacques Chirac in the first round of the French presidential election (in which he was defeated by the socialist, Lionel Jospin). In the 2010 UK general election, opinion polls tended to over-represent support for the Liberal Democrats and slightly underestimate support for the Labour Party.
There are several reasons that might explain the shortcomings of opinion polls. Some people may refuse to answer the pollsters’ questions. This may distort the result if the refusal to answer is disproportionately associated with one segment of electoral opinion. Polls rely on those who are questioned telling the truth and subsequently adhering to the opinions which they express to the pollsters. The ‘last-minute swing’ phenomenon suggests that members of the general public may change their minds and depart from a previously expressed opinion. It may also be difficult for polls to be accurate when the public is evenly divided on the matter under investigation.
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CONSULTATION AND PARTICIPATION
Members of the general public may also secure involvement in policy making through formal mechanisms which allow them to express their views to policy makers on particular issues. Consultation implies the right to be heard. Citizens may be invited to express their opinions on particular matters, to which the policy makers listen but on which they are not required to act. Participation, however, involves a shift in the power relationship between policy makers and the public. Policy making is transformed into a joint exercise involving governors and the governed.
Consultation and participation might be regarded as beneficial to liberal democracies as they permit the policy preferences of the public to be considered or acted on by public officials. However, the lack of information in the hands of the general public might make meaningful discussion impossible and may result in the public being manipulated into giving their backing to contentious proposals put forward by the policy makers.
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Exit polls
Exit polls are a form of opinion poll. They are conducted after an election has taken place and ask citizens as they leave the polling station whom they have voted for.
Exit polls are a particular aid to the media, who frequently sponsor them in order to be in a position to predict the winner of a contest soon after voting has ended but before the official results are declared. Exit polls are usually accurate, although in the 2000 American presidential election the closeness of the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore resulted in difficulties. In some states (including Florida) the media predicted one or other of these two candidates as the victor on the evidence of exit polls, only to be forced to retract this assertion as the ballots were counted. The increased use of postal votes in countries such as the UK is one factor affecting the accuracy of these polls.
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Question
Are opinion polls an aid or a hindrance to the electoral process in liberal democracies?
Referendum
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Insight
A referendum gives the general public the opportunity to vote on specific policy issues. They are utilized widely in some liberal democracies such as Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries, but more sparingly in others such as the United Kingdom.
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ADVANTAGES OF A REFERENDUM
The main advantages associated with a referendum are discussed below.
Direct democracy
A referendum permits mass public involvement in public policy making. We term this ‘direct democracy’. There are various forms of referendum. They may entail the public being given the opportunity to approve a proposed course of action before it is implemented or to express their views on actions previously undertaken by a government. In America the referendum is frequently used in state government. A widely used version is the petition referendum which enables a predetermined number of signatories to suspend the operation of a law passed by the state legislature, which is then placed before the public at a future state election.
A referendum avoids the dangers of public office holders not accurately reflecting public opinion by enabling the citizens themselves to express their approval or disapproval of issues which affect their everyday lives. The power exercised by policy makers over the content of public policy is reduced and they are required to pursue actions which are truly reflective of the views of the public.
It is important, however, that the initiative to hold a referendum should not solely rest with those who discharge the functions of government. A referendum will only provide a mechanism to secure public involvement in policy making if the public themselves have the right both to call one and to exercise some control over its content. In New Zealand, for example, the 1993 Citizens’ Initiated Referenda Act gave 10 per cent of registered electors the opportunity to initiate a non-binding referendum on any subject. This must be held within one year of the initial call for a referendum unless 75 per cent of members of parliament vote to defer it. A
related measure is the initiative petition which is used in approximately half of the American states. This enables a set number of a state’s voters to put a proposed law on a ballot paper, which becomes law if approved by a majority of voters regardless of whether the state legislature chooses to enact it.
Determination of constitutional issues
It is not feasible to suggest that referenda should be held to ascertain the views of the public on every item of public policy. However, they do provide a means whereby major issues (perhaps of considerable constitutional importance) can be resolved. In many European countries referenda were held on membership of the European Union or treaties (such as Maastricht) which were associated with it because of their implications for fundamental matters such as national sovereignty. Of particular significance was the Constitutional Treaty that was designed to provide the EU with a written constitution. The 25 member states were required to ratify it within two years and some countries did this by holding a referendum. The rejection of this constitution by French and Dutch voters in 2005 effectively made it a ‘dead duck’. This resulted in the constitution (which would have replaced all earlier EU treaties) being replaced by a treaty (the Treaty of Lisbon) which merely amended the existing treaties of Rome and Maastricht.
In the United Kingdom referenda are held sparingly. In 1997 referenda were used to enable people living in Scotland and Wales to give their views on the government’s devolution proposals for these two countries. In 1998 referenda were held in Northern Ireland to assess the public mood on the Good Friday peace agreement and in the Irish Republic to approve the amendment of its constitution which laid claim to the six counties of Northern Ireland.
DISADVANTAGES
There are, however, a number of problems associated with a referendum. These are considered now.
Devalues the role of the legislature
A referendum may devalue the role performed by legislative bodies. In some countries (such as France) they were deliberately introduced to weaken the power of parliament. Although they can be reconciled with the concept of parliamentary sovereignty when they are consultative and do not require the legislature to undertake a particular course of action, it is difficult to ignore the outcome of a popular vote even when it does not theoretically tie the hands of public policy makers. Thus the Norwegian parliament announced in advance of the 1972 consultative referendum on entry into the European Economic Community that its outcome would determine the country’s stance on this issue.
Unequal competition
Competing groups in a referendum do not necessarily possess equality in the resources which they have at their disposal and this may give one side an unfair advantage over the other in putting its case across to the electorate. This problem is accentuated if the government contributes to the financing of one side’s campaign, as occurred in the early stages of the 1995 Irish referendum on divorce.
Complexity of issues
The general public may be unable to understand the complexities of the issues which are the subject of a referendum. This may mean that the level of public participation is low or that the result is swayed by factors other than the issue which is placed before the voters for their consideration. For example, the September 2000 referendum in Denmark to reject entry into the single European currency, the euro, was determined more by arguments about the erosion of national identity and independence than by the economic arguments related to joining the euro.
Underlying motives may not be progressive
We should also observe that a referendum is not always a progressive measure designed to enhance the ability of the public to play a meaningful role in policy making. Dictators may use them instead of representative institutions such as a parliament, asserting that these bodies are unnecessary since the public are directly consulted on government policy. The use of referenda by Germany’s Nazi government (1933–45) resulted in the 1949 West German Constitution prohibiting their future use.
A referendum may also be proposed by governments to preserve party unity on an issue which is extremely divisive. The British referendum in 1975 on the Labour government’s renegotiated terms for membership of the European Economic Community was primarily put forward for such partisan reasons. This avoided the government having to take a decision which might have split the party.
‘Mob rule’
A referendum may facilitate the tyranny of the majority with minority interests being sacrificed at the behest of mob rule. This may mean that political issues are resolved by orchestrated hysteria rather than through a calm reflection on the issues which are involved.
Low turnout
Public interest in a referendum is not always high and is affected by factors which include the extent to which established political parties are able to agree on a stance to be adopted and campaign for this. Some countries which utilize referenda have a requirement that turnout should reach a stipulated figure in order for reforms to be initiated. This seeks to prevent minorities securing control of the political agenda. In Portugal, for example, a turnout of 50 per cent of the electorate is required for a referendum to have binding authority.
Question
With the use of examples, consider whether referenda are an advantage or disadvantage to the operations of liberal democratic government.
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THINGS TO REMEMBER
A liberal democratic political system aims to ensure that the operations of government reflect the wishes of the majority of the population. Government functions in the name of the people and is ultimately accountable to them for its actions.
Elections are key mechanisms to ensure that government operates in accordance with popular opinion. To do this, elections should be held frequently in a political climate in which freedom of political expression and action are able to be practised.
The extent to which legislators represent popular opinion is subject to a number of considerations which include the operations of the party system and electoral process. The extent to which legislators reflect the social divisions in society also influences their ability to reflect public opinion on key political issues.
Citizens may be involved in policy making other than voting in election contests. In the UK extra-parliamentary political action (which includes numerous forms of protest such as demonstrations, civil disobedience and direct action) may be used in an attempt to secure political change.
Opinion polls are often used to gauge public opinion on key political issues. However, their usefulness is undermined by examples of inaccuracy, including the incorrect prediction of election results.
A referendum is a further way to secure public involvement in policy making and may be used to determine key constitutional issues. However, the frequent use of referenda may devalue the role of legislatures as forums in which political issues are debated and determined.
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3
Political ideologies
In this chapter you will learn:
what is meant by the term ‘political ideology’
the distinction between ‘left’ and ‘right’ political ideologies
outlines of key left-and right-wing political ideologies.
Definition
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Insight
Political ideology defines the core values of political parties and provides them with ideals which underpin the society they wish to establish.
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Ideology is commonly defined as the principles which motivate political parties, in particular providing a vision of the society they wish to create. Ideology thus serves as a unifying force between party leaders and supporters: all are spiritually united in the promotion of a common cause.
Ideology is not, however, always the guiding force in party politics. American political parties appear far less ideological than their Western European counterparts. Even in these countries, parties (especially when in power) are often forced to respond to events rather than to fashion them.
Parties on the left of the political spectrum have sometimes been accused of abandoning ideology in favour of pragmatism (that is, responding to events as they occur without referring to any preconceived ideology) or of redefining their ideology to improve their chances of election.
There is a danger that politicians are perceived as seeking office for the power which it gives them as individuals, where political ideology is not prominent as a driving force motivating a political party. This may influence the level of popular involvement in political affairs. The absence of pronounced ideology may also result in a situation in which electors find it difficult to differentiate between the political parties. The term ‘consensus’ is used to describe a situation in which similar goals and policies are put forward by competing political parties.