The Yellowstone Brief

by Larry LaVoie

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  THE YELLOWSTONE BRIEF

  LARRY LAVOIE

  Copyright 2014 Larry LaVoie

  All rights reserved, including the right to reproduce this book or portions thereof in any form whatsoever.

  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

  I would like to thank my wife, Anna, for the many hours of support she has given as I write, and for her review and input on the book, the characters, and the story itself. It goes without saying, this book would not be nearly as well written and enjoyable to read without the editing talent of, Sharon Shafa.

  This book is a work of fiction. All characters, names, places, and events are products of the author’s imagination. Any resemblance to actual people, places, or events is purely coincidental.

  Chapter 1

  August 2nd, Santa Rosalia, Baja California SUR

  From his hotel room, Dr. David Wayne studied the screen on his computer. He was gathering data from the newly active volcano, Volcán de las Tres Virgenes, 40 miles west of his location in the coastal town of Santa Rosalia, on the west shore of the Sea of Cortez. The Three Virgins, as the mountains were known in English, were not a likely area for volcanic activity, but there was evidence of magma movement beneath the mountains that threatened a geothermal power plant and a town of Santa Rosalia and its 12,000 residents. David was sent there to help save the people of Santa Rosalia, at least that was what his boss, Clayton Brown, had told him. He’d been given a brief history of the volcano by email and told to catch the earliest flight to Santa Rosalia. Of course, he wasn’t told that Santa Rosalia had no international airport and he’d have to make a long trip by bus. He also wasn’t certain why he was reporting to a U.S. Army colonel. What was up with that? The last he had heard, Baja California was still a part of Mexico.

  The last known eruption of The Three Virgins was reported by Spanish Missionaries in 1746, but the magma pool under the volcano was still present. In a geologic survey in 1982, the field was determined to cover a large enough area to support a geothermal plant that could provide enough electricity to serve the area for many years in the future. In 2001, the first power units consisting of two 5-MW turbines, were installed. With increased activity on the mountain, the power plant was at risk, as well as the town of Santa Rosalia.

  Santa Rosalia is located on the shore of the Sea of Cortez about midway down the Baja peninsula in the northern part of the province, Baja California Sur. In all, over a hundred thousand people would be without power if Dr. David Wayne wasn’t able to keep the community safe from an eruption.

  Las Tres Virgenes Geothermal Field was activated in 2002 at the base of the volcano and was in danger of being wiped out by an eruption, as was the town of Santa Rosalia, but the city fathers were skeptical. The mountain had spit out a plume of ash and steam only two weeks earlier, dusting the city in a harmless layer of ash less than a millimeter deep. Other than a few sickly elders, no one was harmed. Closing the power station and evacuating the city would mean financial collapse of the businesses already straining to survive.

  David had been called from an assignment in Argentina. He was confounded by the assignment he had been asked to undertake. Instead of determining the areas to evacuate around the volcano, as he would normally do in the wake of an impending eruption, he was here to assist the Army Corps of Engineers in a previously untried experiment, of which he had great reservations. To prepare himself for the project, he had done extensive research on tunneling and looked up every nutty idea on the internet, in order to determine if the experiment he was participating in had any chance at success. Although he was assigned to give technical support to the Corps of Engineers, he still considered his primary responsibility protecting the people in the surrounds. He was their last line of defense in the event of an eruption, and if what he had been briefed on were true, he would have to determine when to evacuate the city as well as the geothermal power plant if things went awry.

  In his research David learned of a device called a subterrene, or an NPTM (Nuclear Powered Tunneling Machine). A patent for the machine was granted to a team of scientists based at Los Alamos Labs in New Mexico. The first prototype had been redesigned and equipped with the latest version of a miniature fission reactor and had undergone testing under several military installations. Unlike the giant tunneling machines used to bore under the English Channel or through the Alps in Europe, the NPTM was rumored to bore through solid rock and produce a glass-lined tunnel capable of sustaining the weight of the surrounding rock without the need for massive concrete superstructures required by conventional tunneling machines. Because of its unique design, a NPTM could bore through as much as seven miles of solid rock in a day and leave behind very little waste material. Of course, it was all speculation because the existence of an NPTM was highly classified, and, with the exception of a few photographs posted by the U.S. Air Force in 1982 and the U.S. patent, the military denied such a machine existed.

  What David knew of tunneling or of an NPTM was what little he was able to dig up on the Internet; so, at best, his education was as questionable as the existence of the machines he was reading about. His briefing by Corps of Engineer Colonel Parker Frost, had mentioned boring a tunnel into the mountain. It did not mention an NPTM. Feeling inadequately prepared for the task, and not being privy to any of the technical details other than the briefing by the Corps of Engineers, David devoured everything he could find on tunneling. NPTM or not, he was surprised at how far the technology had come. What he had envisioned: picks, shovels, drills, and dynamite, had been replaced with massive machines that could bore a 60 foot diameter hole through a mountain or under the sea. One article he read showed a 35.4-mile-long tunnel had been bored through the Swiss Alps connecting Italy and Switzerland. He read that tunneling machines had been used to produce underground cities in the mountains of Colorado. Supposedly these cities were designed to house the President and all the military leaders in the event of nuclear attack on the United States. As a scientist, he was skeptical, and doubted much of the technology existed. He felt most of what he was reading was conjecture based on conspiracy theories, but maybe he was in a unique position to see for himself if the technology really existed.

  David thought back to the briefing. He had been so ignorant of tunneling technology he had just sat dumbfounded and had failed to ask a single question. Still, boring a tunnel through solid rock was one thing, but the thought of boring a hole into a mountain containing a river of lava, in an effort to divert a volcanic eruption, was pure science fiction and he knew that for certain. It was impossible for his mind to get past the absurdity of it all. Now, a week after his assignment the questions were still forming, and with each question he felt like he had been thrown into the middle of a conspiracy theory all his own.

  As it was presented to him, the project at Vulcan Tres Virgenes would be the first ever attempt at tunneling into an active volcano. Clearly, there was more at stake than the lives and property of the people in the area. If the experiment failed, his credibility as a scientist would be questioned. His name would be forever linked to a manmade disaster. It was a bit ironic, he thought, that the first test for tunneling into a volcano was going to be in Mexico, far away from the scrutiny of the press and the prying eyes of the American public. The questions were forming as fast as he could think. Why was the operation at Tres Virgenes top secret? How much did it cost the US government to get Mexico to agree to use their land and people for such a risky experiment? Was it pure coincidence that a volcano was acting up this close to the United States? He doubted he’d ever get answers to these or any other questions. As he continued to scan the internet for information, he came across others who were also asking questions.

  As with anything de
aling with governments and Mother Nature, news somehow had leaked out, and he had run across an article speculating on what was going on in the remote mountains of Baja California Sur. They have sworn me to secrecy and it’s already reached the Internet, David thought. Next they’ll be blaming me for the leak.

  Uncomfortable as he was with the project, David felt he had no choice but to carry out the mission to the best of his ability. His assignment was to give Colonel Parker Frost the path the tunnel needed to take to intersect with the magma pool, assess any risk of an eminent eruption, and warn the colonel. His instructions failed to mention the public, the power station, or any of the things he was trained to do to protect the surrounding population. If he was wrong in his assessments, the best scenario was that 100,000 citizens would be without power for years to come. More likely, 60,000 people could lose their property, their businesses, and the city of Santa Rosalia would no longer exist. He had to be right. He studied the detailed topographical model of the mountain and the surrounds on his computer and nodded his head. He knew the path the machine would have to take.

  He checked his watch and speed dialed Colonel Parker Frost, who had already set up a base camp in the mountains. He hoped the colonel was an early riser.

  “Dr. Wayne, have you’ve got the coordinates for me?” Colonel Frost asked in his raspy voice. He was career Army with a degree in civil engineering, a big man in his mid-forties. The colonel had been brought in to work with physicists, nuclear engineers, and geologists to design and develop the next phase of tunneling technology.

  “The best I can do with the limited information I have,” David answered. “I’ve got a path mapped out, but I think, as a precaution, we should evacuate the valley where the geothermal power station is located.” David waited for a response.

  “That’s your call, but you can’t mention the tunneling activity. I’m here to support the Mexican government, and that’s their stipulation, not mine. They are in trouble if this thing doesn’t work. We’re going to give it our best to save the town and the power station. If you want to evacuate them, you’ll have to work with the Mexican authorities for a plausible explanation.”

  In his briefing, David had seen the model worked out by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The plan had high risk. Volcanoes were highly unpredictable at best, and tunneling into the side of an active system to divert the flow of an eruption was about as high-risk as he could imagine. He checked his data again. The way the volcano was behaving, he figured they had about two weeks to perform a miracle.

  “The data show the mountain is unstable on the east slope,” David said, into his cell phone. “If it were to erupt, that side of the mountain would almost certainly collapse. The resulting lahar would send a scalding ash cloud in the direction of Santa Rosalia. I don’t have to tell you how devastating that would be. Any tunneling on that side of the mountain is not recommended. I think the best opportunity, if you have to do anything, is on the south side of the mountain. There’s a valley on the south side that is mostly cactus and sage. It’s populated by a few ranches. If you’re hell bent on doing this and, assuming your model is correct, the lava flow could be diverted into that valley and the greater population in the city spared along with the Las Tres Virgenes Geothermal Field Station.”

  “How much time do I have?” Colonel Frost asked.

  David hated this part of the job. Predicting a volcanic eruption was pretty good science, but it wasn’t exact. Since the days of the Mt. St. Helens eruption in 1980, the science of predicting volcanic eruptions had come a long way, but predicting when a volcano would erupt within a two-week window was still highly speculative. Even with the new software program he had developed with the assistance of satellites and radio controlled drones, it couldn’t predict the exact time a volcano would erupt. At best he could give a window of time; it could be days or weeks, or months, but not hours.

  “Come on, Dr. Wayne. I know you’ve worked out a worst case scenario.”

  David cautiously answered. “You know how unpredictable these things are. Let me send up another drone for a Co-Spec reading, recheck my data, and I’ll give you an answer this afternoon.”

  “Dammit, son, you can’t put the U.S. Government on hold so you can cover your ass. I need an answer now!”

  “Two weeks,” David blurted out, then immediately wished he had cut it to one week.

  “Two weeks! It will take that long to get my equipment up the mountain.”

  David was glad to hear that. Maybe the colonel would abandon the science fiction experiment, and he could go about the more routine part of his job and start evacuating Santa Rosalia. “Don’t kill the messenger, General. That’s the best info I have. Maybe your efforts would be better spent helping to evacuate the city and the power plant.”

  “It’s Colonel Parker Frost! Got that, Colonel! I’m not a general. I work for a living. If all I have is two weeks, I’ll get it done in two weeks, but you damn well had better be right.”

  “I said two weeks at the most. It may be closer to one week.”

  “Make up your mind, is it one or two? My ass is on the line and yours is going to be right there with me. Give it to me straight, one or two weeks?”

  David put his hand to his head and tried to rub away the doubt. “Two weeks, and I’ll keep monitoring the gas readings to give you a heads-up if anything changes. If you’re going to do this, you’d best not waste any time.”

  “Son, I hope for your sake, you’re not screwing with me.”

  “Thanks for the confidence,” David said. He disconnected and dialed the number he’d been given for the head of the power plant. If the Corps of Engineers was going to start boring into the side of an active volcano, the local authorities needed to know the risks. He doubted Colonel Frost had bothered to inform them of all the things that could go wrong; but then again, what would he tell them, if he couldn’t mention the tunneling? He disconnected and put his phone in its holster. What have I gotten myself into? He stared out the hotel window, not seeing the street vendor peddling freshly made tacos, the dress shop with brightly colored cotton goods for sale to the tourists, or the fishing boats bobbing gently in the breeze.

  He thought back to his days in college, when he became aware of man’s desire to control the destructive natural forces of nature. There were plenty of students arrogant enough to believe they could control the outcome of natural events, given enough time and resources. For every disaster there was a theory on how it could be prevented. Scientists studying global warming had concluded man had played a role in the steady rise in global temperature. Then, sometime in the past five years, without warning, the term global warming had been altered to climate change. It seemed the earth had stopped warming, so a new term had to be created to convince mankind that he was destroying the planet. Was he wrong to be a skeptic? The scientists who opposed global warming theory were quick to point out the dramatic changes in global climate throughout the ages. These scientists were just as certain, nature had a mechanism for taking care of itself. They claimed there was little man was doing that impacted the changes in the climate. It had all happened before and would go on in cycles for millennia to come. If David had been a proponent of global warming, he might have been easier to convince that man could control Mother Nature, but, as a volcanologist, he dealt with the most destructive forces of the earth and was of the belief that you don’t mess with Mother Nature. She was to be respected. If you didn’t respect her, she might just bite you in the ass, or worse, kill you. In addition to the obvious localized danger a volcano presented, it also had the power to impact the weather on a global scale. Under the right conditions, a single volcano in the right location and of the right size, could reverse global warming and send global temperatures into a tailspin, ushering in another ice age. All of man-made global warming could be reversed in an instant. He had once read an article on the cooling trend that came about after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippine Islands, June 15, 1991. For the ne
xt three years global temperatures had dropped 1˚F. It was a powerful testament to the power of Mother Nature. Could man really make an impact, or better yet, prevent a disaster as large as Pinatubo? He was thankful The Three Virgins were not predicted to be nearly as destructive as Pinatubo, or St. Helens, for that matter. At least they picked a small volcano for their test case, he thought.

  As he pondered man’s desire to mess with Mother Nature, he recalled a recent trip he had taken to Alaska. The small plane in which he was a passenger flew over a large antenna array which covered several acres on the ground. As he looked down, he saw what looked like a forest of antennas, surrounded by a forest of trees. He found out later it was a classified government experiment called HAARP, High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program. Conspiracy theorists claimed HAARP was bouncing high energy waves off the ionosphere, making dramatic changes in the weather, causing storms hundreds of miles away. As silly as it seemed, if this system could be used to produce a hurricane or tornado over enemy territory, it could be an effective means of changing the outcome of a battle or possibly a war. It could even bankrupt a nation, if it was targeted accurately enough.

  He knew his mind was running out of control. He considered the experiment he was engaging in might also be an experiment to see if weather patterns could be altered by releasing the fury of a volcano. While he was a student, he learned man had an insatiable desire to control his own destiny. Why would it be any different now? During the Dust Bowl, they had seeded clouds to make it rain. Now, zapping the ionosphere with radio waves to send a storm over enemy territory...maybe tunneling into an active volcano wasn’t so crazy after all. Maybe his surprise at learning what the Corps of Engineer was planning, shouldn’t have been a surprise at all. The fact that they were choosing this volcano as their first try, and he was on the team, was fate, or just his bad luck. What did I do to deserve this? He didn’t like it and didn’t believe it would work, but hadn’t voiced his opposition. If he had, more than likely his objections would be duly noted and promptly ignored. Isn’t that the way government works? At best, he had two choices: lose his job, or stick around and make sure Colonel Frost’s attempt at interfering with a volcanic eruption didn’t cause a bigger disaster than Mother Nature herself had planned.