The claim that ‘the world is going to the dogs’ has a similar lengthy pedigree, being one of the earliest secular inscriptions deciphered from Ancient Egypt. Another unpalatable fact was revealed in the nineteenth century by the English economist. Reverend Robert Malthus, who reluctantly proved that the world’s population would inevitably outgrow its ability to feed itself. Yet in the words of Charles Dickens’ character, Mr Micawber: ‘Something will turn up.’
And so it did. The world learned how to produce more food. No little part in this transformation was played by the great German chemist, Fritz Haber, who discovered how to synthesise ammonia from nitrogen and hydrogen gas, thus revolutionising the manufacture of fertilisers. However, Haber eluded canonisation by also creating poisonous gas for use in warfare.
Humanity’s transformations have almost invariably emerged from left field. Accidents (such as Fleming’s discovery of penicillin), a pig-headed refusal to accept the ‘facts’ (Pasteur: ‘Chance favours the prepared mind’), as well as the genius flash of inspiration (Archimedes’ discovery of the buoyancy principle: ‘Eureka!’), and many such discoveries, have all played their part in changing the course of history in utterly unforeseen fashion.
The latest of these life-changers is perhaps the computer-driven IT revolution. Just thirty years ago, people walking down the street talking animatedly to themselves, or believing it necessary to transmit their every passing thought for approval/disapproval by a host of imaginary friends, were liable to be escorted into care for their own good. Now they are simply part of social media.
The latest candidate for ‘The End’ (the catastrophe that will destroy our planet) is global warming. In my youth, it was a nuclear holocaust: few of us believed we would live until we were sixty. There has always been the argument: ‘Ah, but this time it’s different.’ This expression of wish-fulfilment has most frequently been employed by optimistic well-informed financiers during a prolonged bull market, when faced by nay-sayers predicting a crash that will destroy the world economy.
Democracy is a recipe for short-termism, and such governments are unlikely to implement collectively all the drastic solutions required to reverse global warming. Alternatives for the survival of our species, such as emigration to Mars, are more a matter between Elon Musk and his psychiatrist. Miracles such as cold fusion and massive powerful carbon dioxide absorbents have long been awaited. The saving miracle, if it arrives, will be the biblical cloud ‘no bigger than a hand’s span’, which may even now be materialising just beyond the left field of our vision. As for future great empires, and the world geo-political picture . . . This may not be as harsh as the continuous warfare envisaged by George Orwell in his dystopian novel 1984; but it is more than possible that he accurately foresaw its empires and their competing spheres of influence. He posited three: Oceania (including the Americas, Australia, southern Africa and Britain), Eurasia (stretching from Portugal to the Pacific) and East Asia (a westward expanded China). Is it inevitable that one of these will emerge as the dominant power?
A knowledgeable friend of mine once gave me a tip for a two-horse race. The favourite had no chance of winning: place all you can on the other horse. During the race, the favourite fell at one of the early fences, leaving the field clear for our horse. Alas, the weight of expectation on this horse evidently proved too great, for it keeled over with a heart attack within sight of the finishing line. Such is, and always has been, the state of predictions concerning the future of the world and the great empires that will form its history.
45 I stand corrected. The Canadian Toronto Blue Jays are the only international team to have taken part in (and twice won) this ‘world’ event.
46 At the time of writing, this ‘product’ is President Trump.
47 Not since the building of the pyramids almost 4,500 years previously had humanity accomplished such a prodigious feat. And not until the Soviets launched the first Sputnik forty-three years later in 1957 would such a purely engineering feat be surpassed. It is no exaggeration to claim that the exponential speed of humanity’s historical progress is reflected in the condensed gaps between these three dates. A feat that almost defies belief, yet is reinforced by personal anecdotal evidence.
My father was just eleven years old when the Wright brothers first managed to coax their fixed-wing, chain-driven-propeller contraption almost ten feet into the air for twelve seconds at a speed of almost seven mph to cover 120 feet. My father would have another sixteen years to live when Neil Armstrong first set foot on the moon. Yet it is necessary to repeat that, during this same century, humanity achieved the rather less positive scientific feat (incorporating comparable engineering expertise) of first splitting, and later fusing, the atomic nucleus, with the potential for putting a full stop to this long and superlative history of progress.
Acknowledgements
This book relies in many ways upon all those who have contributed to my education – both formal (schools, universities, books etc.) and confidential (wise words in my ear from sources ranging from senior politicians to an ex-mafia don). Unlike many works of mine, this incorporates a lifetime’s experience, along with the opinionated reactions of the one who experienced it.
With regards to the finished product, any opinions, mistakes and so forth should be attributed entirely to the author – and certainly not to any of his confidential advisors. The book itself would not have been possible without the meticulous and ever-helpful editing of the staff at Hodder. In particular, this includes my editors, who switched horses in mid-race: namely Drummond Moir and Ian Wong. Also, all others at Hodder who have been so helpful with my occasional requests.
As ever, I would like to thank my long-term agent Julian Alexander. Also his assistant Ben Clark, who remains ever helpful. I would particularly like to thank the staff at the several libraries and record offices I have consulted both here and abroad, who have provided me with so much helpful information and guidance. And as always, without the unfailingly helpful staff at Humanities 2 in the British Library, this book would not have been possible.
Picture Acknowledgements
p. 3: Illustration by © Jan Adkins 1993; p. 30: © Thaaer Al-Shewaily/Getty Images; p. 38: © Silver Stock / Alamy Stock Photo; p. 53: © Shutterstock.com/kavram; p. 77: Gift of George D. Pratt, 1931/The Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York; p. 97: © GL Archive / Alamy Stock Photo; p. 121: Bequest of John M. Crawford Jr., 1988/The Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York; p. 129: © Granger Historical Picture Archive / Alamy Stock Photo; p. 168: © Christopher Pillitz/In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images; p. 193: Courtesy of Vadac/Wikimedia; p. 197: © shutterstock.com/Vera NewSib; p. 222: Image Courtesy of The Advertising Archives
Sources and References
I have listed precise citations for the Introduction and Chapter I, where I have used a large variety of sources. Quotation sources in the later chapters are mostly indicated in the text; others are taken from the Recommended Reading books.
Introduction: Three Telling Tales of Empire
p. 1. ‘the oceans of . . .’, many sources repeat versions of this phrase, see for instance, Niall Ferguson, Civilization (London, 2011), p. 29.
p. 2. ‘a king without . . .’, see Miles Menander Dawson, The Wisdom of Confucius (Boston, 1932), pp. 57-8.
p. 2. ‘to proceed all the way. . .’, cited cover, Gavin Menzies, 1421 (London, 2003).
p. 3. ‘at best circumstantial . . .’, Ferguson, Civilization, p. 29.
p. 3. ‘a number of medieval . . .’, Menzies, 1421, p. 241.
p. 3. ‘the Chinese . . . had discovered . . .’, see: Junk History, ABC Four Corners programme, 31 July 2006, consulted 1.6.2018.
p. 4. ‘were hostile to commerce . . .’, Christopher Lascelles, A Short History of the World (London, 2012), p.65.
p. 4. ‘one of the greatest . . .’, C. Simon Fan, Culture, Institution and Development in China (London, 2016), p. 97.
p. 4. ‘for the perpetual prevention . . .’, for this and subsequen
t citations re the Golghar, see for instance Jan Morris, The Stones of Empire (Oxford, 2005 ed.), pp. 220–2.
p. 6. ‘However, the complexity of . . Secret Report LA-602, ‘Ignition of Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs’, stamped ‘unclassified 7/30/79’, p. 18. p. 7. ‘even more dangerous . . Alex Wellerstein blog, ‘Nuclear Secrecy’, cited John Horgan, Scientific American, 3 August 2015.
p. 8. ‘It was subsequently determined . . see Wikipedia entry on Stanislav Petrov, citing as source Channel 4, 1983: The Brink of the Apocalypse: section on Petrov starts 29.06 mins into programme, consulted 5.6.2018. p. 9. ‘All right . . . all right . . original script of Monty Python’s Life of Brian posted on internet, consulted 5.6.2018.
p. 10. ‘An extensive territory . . .’, see Oxford English Dictionary (Oxford, 1989, 2nd ed.), vol. 5.
Chapter 1: The Akkadian Empire
p. 13. ‘During the flooding . . .’, Herodotus, The Histories, bk 2, p. 97.
p. 14. ‘two and two of all . . .,’ Genesis 7: 14-15.
p.16. ‘My mother was a changeling . . .’, cited Georges Roux, Ancient Iraq (London, 1980), p. 145.
p. 16. ‘tore down the . . .’, et seq, cited Roux, Iraq, p. 146.
p. 17. ‘dug up the soil of the pit . . .’, ‘The Chronicle of Early Kings’, ABC 20: 18–19.
p. 17. ‘ [Sargon] had neither rival nor . . .’, ‘The Chronicle of Early Kings’ at Livius.org, adapted from Grayson, 1975 and Glassner, 2004.
p. 18. ‘washed his weapons . . .’, see Amelie Kurt, in The Ancient Near East (London, 1995), vol. 1, p. 49.
p. 19. ‘who ate bread . . .’, cited Mario Liverani, The Ancient Near East (London, 2013), p. 143.
p. 19. ‘Now, any king who . . .’, cited Roux, Iraq p. 149.
p. 20. ‘Sargon’s daughter made herself. . .’, et seq, see Paul Kriwaczek, Babylon (London, 2010), pp. 120, 121, 122.
p. 21. ‘In his old age all . . .’, et seq, cited Roux, Iraq, p. 148.
p. 24. ‘stylised borrowing on. . .’, et seq, see Guy Deutscher, Syntactic Change in Akkadian (Oxford, 2000), pp. 20–1.
p. 25. ‘The year when Sargon . . .’, Kriwaczek, Babylon, p. 127.
p. 26. ‘units which would remain . . .’, ibid.
p. 26. ‘bewildered, confused . . .’, cited & et seq, see Roux, Iraq, p. 150.
p. 27. ‘Empires based solely on . . .’, Kriwaczek, Babylon, p. 159.
p. 28. ‘nearly all Palestinian . . .’, Stiebing, Ancient Near East, p. 77.
p. 28. ‘Aerial photographs of . . .’, ibid, p. 78.
p. 28. ‘The First World . . .’, see title Akkad: The First World Empire, ed. Mario Liverani (Padua 1993).
p. 28. ‘construction seemingly going . . .’, Kriwaczek, Babylon, p. 129.
p. 28. ‘In no case is the . . et seq; ironically Liverani’s citations come from p. 2 of his title Akkad: The First World Empire.
p. 29. ‘Up until now civilization . . Kriwaczek, Babylon, p. 119.
p. 30. ‘Herodotus describes the . . see Harriet Crawford, Sumer and the Sumerians (New York, 1993), p. 85.
p. 32. ‘We know that life . . H.G. Wells, A Short History of the World (London, 1965 ed.), p. 62.
p. 33. ‘When you are thinking of . . P.J. O’Rourke, All the Trouble in the World (New York, 1994).
Chapter 2: The Roman Empire
I have made liberal use of the vast literature devoted to this subject. Here are some titles recommended for further reading:
Mary Beard, Confronting the Classics (London, 2013). Mary Beard, SPQR: A History of the Roman Empire (London, 2015).
Luciano Canfora, Julius Caesar: The Life and Times of the People’s Dictator, trans. Hill & Windle (Oakland, 2007).
Philip Freeman, Julius Caesar (London, 2008).
Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (London, 2010).
Anthony Kamm, The Romans: An Introduction (London, 1995).
Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome, trans. Grant (London, 1956).
Chapter 3: The Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates
Recommended further reading:
Jim Al-Khalili, Pathfinders: The Golden Age of Arabic Science (London, 2010).
André Clot, Harun al-Rashid, trans. John Howe (London, 2005).
Shirley Guthrie, Arab Women in the Middle Ages (London, 2001).
Hugh Kennedy, Caliphate: The History of An Idea (New York, 2016).
Hugh Kennedy, The Prophet and the Age of the Caliphates (London, 1986).
Jonathan Lyons, The House of Wisdom (London, 2009).
C.W. Previté-Orton, The Shorter Cambridge Medieval History, Vol. I, Later Roman Empire to the Twelfth Century (Cambridge, 1979).
Chapter 4: The Mongol Empire
Recommended further reading:
The Secret History of the Mongols, trans. Igor de Rachewiltz (Netherlands, 2006).
Christopher Atwood, Encyclopedia of Mongolia and the Mongol Empire (New York, 2004).
Carl von Clausewitz, On War.
Peter Jackson, The Mongols and the Islamic World (London, 2017).
Frank McLynn, Genghis Khan: The Man Who Conquered the World (London, 2015).
Jack Weatherford, Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World (New York, 2004).
Chapter 5: The Yuan Dynasty
Recommended further reading:
Chan, Hok-lam & W.T. De Barry, Yuan Thought: Chinese Thought and Religion under the Mongols (New York, 1982).
Elizabeth Endicott-West, ‘The Yuan Government and Society’ in Cambridge History of China, Vol. 6.
John D. Langlois, China Under Mongol Rule (Princeton, 1981).
Ann Pauldan, Chronicle of Chinese Emperors (London, 1998).
Chapter 6: The Aztec Empire
Recommended further reading:
Nigel Davies, The Aztecs: A History (London, 1973).
Bernal Diaz, trans. J. Cohen, The Conquest of New Spain (London, 1963).
Miguel Leon-Portilla, trans. J. Davies, Aztec Thought and Culture (Oklahoma, 1978)
Michael Smith, The Aztecs (Oxford, 2012).
Jacques Soustelle, Daily Life of the Aztecs on the Eve of the Spanish Conquest (Stanford, 1961).
Chapter 7: The Ottoman Empire
Recommended further reading:
Roger Crowley, Constantinople: The Last Great Siege 1453 (London, 2005).
Caroline Finkel, Osman’s Dream: The Story of the Ottoman Empire 1300–1923 (London, 2005).
Halil Inalcik, An Economic and Social History of the Ottoman Empire (1300–1600) (Cambridge, 1997).
Patrick Kinross, The Ottoman Centuries (London, 1977).
Philip Mansel, Sultans in Splendour: The Last Years of The Ottoman World (London, 1988).
John Julius Norwich, A Short History of Byzantium (London, 1998).
Chapter 8: The British Empire
Recommended further reading:
Eric Hobsbawm, The Age of Empire (London, 1987).
Ronald Hyam, Britain’s Imperial Century 1815–1914 (London, 2002).
Jan Morris, Pax Britannica (London, 1968).
Jan Morris, Heaven’s Command: An Imperial Progress (London, 1973).
Jan Morris, Farewell the Trumpets (London, 1978).
Chapter 9: The Russian Empire
Recommended further reading:
Archie Brown et al, The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Russia and the Soviet Union (Cambridge, 1982).
George Freeze, Russia: A History (Oxford, 2002).
Robert Service, A History of Twentieth Century Russia (London, 1999).
Hugh Seton-Watson, The Russian Empire 1801–1917 (London, 1967).
Chapter 10: The American Empire
Recommended further reading:
Paul Boyer (ed.), The Oxford Companion to United States History (Oxford, 2001).
Mark C. Canes & John A. Garraty, The American Nation: A History of the United States (New York, 2015).
William E. Leuchtenburg, The American President: From Teddy Roosevelt to Bill Clinton (New York, 2015).
G
ordon S. Wood, Empire of Liberty: A History of the Early Republic 1795–1815 (New York, 2009).
Aristide Zolberg, A Nation by Design: Immigration Policy in the Fashioning of America (London, 2006).
Index
Page numbers listed correspond to the print edition of this book. You can use your device’s search function to locate particular terms in the text.
Abbasid Caliphate 66–77, 93
Abdul Hamid I 172
Adelard of Bath 68
Africa 193
Homo sapiens 133–4
Islam 76–7
slave trade 182–4
Ahmed I 172
Ain Jalut, Battle of 101, 118–19
Akkadian Empire 15–29, 32
language 23–4
Narâm-Sin 22–3, 26–7
Sargon 15–22, 25–6
ziggurats 29–31
Al-Andalus 74–6, 77, 115–16
al-Hassan, Ahmad 118–19
Al-Khwarizmi, Muhammad 72
Al-Razi 70
Alaska 136, 205, 224, 226
Alexander I, Czar 210
Alexander the Great 41–2, 44, 46, 135
Alexis I, Czar 204, 206
Algiers 171–2
Ali 62, 63
alphabets 34, 35, 200
America
and British Empire 182, 189
and Russia 204–5
slavery 182–4, 220
see also United States
Amritsar Massacre 180
Ancient Greece 33–5, 52, 67, 68, 69
and Rome 41–2
Socrates 78
theatre 50
see also Greece
Anna Karenina (Tolstoy) 210
aqueducts 52, 53
Arab caliphates see Abbasid Caliphate; Rashidun Caliphate; Umayyad Caliphate
Aristotle 68, 69, 76, 135
Armenian Massacre 173–4
Empire Page 20