Rescind Order
Page 39
“Well, as I mentioned before, I don’t know why the Russian government failed to announce the laun… What the?” Anton’s eyes darted to the side and widened. His mouth opening, he jerked his head back as a large object moved in front of the camera, obscuring his face. Then suddenly, the video feed cut out and the screen went blank.
Tori stared at the screen, trying to hide the shock on her face at what she thought had happened. Then she turned back to face the camera and feigned a calm smile. “It looks like we’ve lost our feed at the moment. We’ll go to commercial break while we try to reestablish a connection.”
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Acknowledgments
If you enjoyed reading this novel, even in the slightest, then it is all my friend Darren Cogan’s fault, and you can thank him. If it were not for his prodding, I would have never written this novel.
I can remember the exact moment I decided to write Rescind Order. It was a weekday evening in early August 2019. Darren and I were on the phone talking about my research paper that explores the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In what I thought was a stroke of brilliance, I decided to kick off the paper with a fictional scenario about an autonomous retaliatory capability (ARC) designed to launch U.S. nuclear weapons automatically when certain conditions are met. The scenario was intended to be an entertaining hook to draw readers into an otherwise abstract paper and get them to imagine how AI might shape WMD threats and responses in the future. And yes, I intentionally chose the name of the automated system to be as bland and uninspiring as possible to parody many such systems developed by the Department of Defense. I also like the sound it makes when you say the acronym repeatedly; it reminds me of the seals barking in the distance when I lived in Monterey, California. To me, the seals always sounded like they were laughing hysterically. That’s some meta-parody for you. Anyway, back to my anecdote.
It was an odd conversation for my friend and I to have. Darren is a screenwriter, not a national security expert. We usually talk about fiction stories, but I just had to tell him about the speculative scenario in my nonfiction paper. Developing an automated command and control system for nuclear weapons is a preposterous and extremely dangerous idea. Several days after I wrote it, two nuclear deterrence experts called for exactly such a system on a popular national security blog. When I first read the article, my jaw dropped in disbelief, and I had to read it again. Surely, they couldn’t be serious. Sadly they were.
Would U.S. policymakers someday leverage artificial intelligence to build a system that automatically launches a retaliatory strike in response to a nuclear attack? After more than ten years of working in the Department of Defense, surrounded by many true believers in 20th century nuclear deterrence, I couldn’t answer “absolutely not” with confidence. Rather, I could imagine policymakers claiming such a system was dictated by the logic of deterrence and arguing that it would keep us safe from nuclear war. These are the arguments us scholarly types hear all the time in nuclear policy circles in D.C. Many think nuclear weapons, the most destructive weapons in the world, must exist to keep us safe. Without them, we are in mortal danger. They also say we need to be able to launch them on warning—within less than thirty minutes—in order to ensure effective retaliation and prevent nuclear war. Basically because of nuclear deterrence, U.S. citizens face the chance of losing everything they hold dear to an all-out-nuclear war that could start in less than thirty minutes. As long as we have nuclear weapons, the U.S. threatens to do the same to the citizens of other countries with nuclear weapons. By living on this nuclear tinder box, they say we are safe. That’s what they need to believe.
It didn’t take long for Darren to convince me to write a novel about this scenario, though that wasn’t his original intention. I think the dialogue went down something like this.
“That scenario would make a great short film,” he said enthusiastically.
“You think so?” I rubbed my chin, considering the possibility.
“We could make the film the exact length of the decision-making window. The President has eight minutes and fifty-three seconds to issue the rescind order, right?”
“Yeah. You’re right, that would be a cool short film…” I said, my voice trailing off. A moment later, I said decisively, “We should write it.”
“Let’s do it,” Darren said quickly.
“I should probably write the novel first,” I said, thinking about the technical complexity of nuclear deterrence, artificial intelligence, and autonomous systems. “To get my ideas worked out on paper.”
“Good idea,” he said.
This is how I got started on Rescind Order. A month later, I traveled to D.C. to start my one year stint as an NSquare Fellow and meet up with my fellow cohort of like-minded creatives. During this trip, I decided upon two things. First, that I would use the experience of writing novel as the basis for a dark comedy stage play called American Doomsday. Second, I decided to borrow the cast of characters from the first novel I’ve ever written but has yet to see the light of day. If you read the novel and have finished it, wanting to know much more about the Nightfall Incident, never fear. I’ve written an entire novel about Morgan and Jack Shaw and the sequence of events that led to Nightfall and plan to release it as a prequel sometime in 2021.
This novel benefited from the insights and skills of amazing editors. I would like to thank Brianna Boes for finessing the manuscript with her brilliant line edits and polishes as well as catching some important plot issues. Thank you to Christie Hartman who helped catch loose errors and typos.
Special thanks to a number of national security experts for their assistance with brainstorming the technical pieces of my novel: Dr. William Kennedy, Tim Westmyer, Dr. David Santoro, and Dr. Frank Sauer. Thank you to Rear Admiral (ret) John Gower for taking the time to read my book twice and provide vital feedback. I’ve based many of the concepts in my novel on writings by Paul Scharre, Michael Horowitz, Elsa Kania, Eric Schlosser, Scott Sagan, Thomas Schelling, and Herman Kahn. I am indebted to many other scholars who have produced serious work in this area and consider this novel my contribution to the debate. Also thanks to Erika Gregory, Morgan Matthews, and Tom Weis of the NSquare Collaborative for their continuous support.
Any inaccuracy in the novel is my own and should not reflect on anyone mentioned. Moreover, the views expressed in this novel are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
I am dedicating this book to my friend, Darren. Thank you for inspiring me to write this story and for messing up my planned writing schedule. Thank you for always being willing to brainstorm with me and even for listening to me explain nuclear deterrence and machine learning ad nauseum.
About the Author
NATASHA BAJEMA l
ives in Rockport, Texas with her dogs, Malachi and Charlie, and works as an independent consultant on national security. She has been an expert on national security issues for over 20 years, specializing in weapons of mass destruction (WMD), nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and emerging technologies. For ten years, Natasha worked for the National Defense University where she taught an elective course to senior military officers on WMD and film and led a research project on the impact of emerging technologies on national security. Natasha holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
For more information:
https://natashabajema.com
nuclearspincycle@gmail.com