The Future of Humanity

by Michio Kaku

  Time-lapse videos show that this is correct. If a baseball is thrown so that it has minimal spin (as in a knuckleball), turbulence is maximized and the ball’s path becomes erratic. If a baseball is spinning rapidly, then the air pressure on one side of the baseball can be greater than the pressure on the other side (via something called Bernoulli’s principle) and hence the ball will swerve a certain way.

  All this means that, for world-class athletes from Earth, the reduced air pressure on Mars may cause them to lose their ability to control the ball, so that an entirely new crop of Martian athletes may rise in their place. Mastery of a sport on Earth may mean little when applied to Mars.

  If we draw up a list of the sports that are found in the Olympics, we see that, without exception, each and every one would have to be modified to take into account the reduced gravity and air pressure on Mars. In fact, a new Martian Olympics may emerge, including radical sports that are not physically possible on Earth and don’t even exist yet.

  The conditions on Mars may also increase the artistry and elegance of other sports. A figure skater, for example, can only spin about four times in the air on the Earth. No skater has ever performed a quintuple jump. This is because the height of the jump is determined by the velocity at takeoff and the strength of gravity. On Mars, figure skaters will be able to soar three times higher in the air and execute breathtaking jumps and spins because of the reduced gravity and air pressure. Gymnasts on Earth perform marvelous twists and turns in the air because their muscle strength exceeds the weight of their body. But on Mars, their strength would vastly exceed their reduced body weight, allowing them to perform twists and turns in the air that have never been seen before.

  TOURISTS ON MARS

  Once our astronauts have mastered the fundamental life-and-death challenges of surviving on Mars, they can savor some of the aesthetically pleasing rewards of the Red Planet.

  Because of the planet’s weak gravity, thin atmosphere, and lack of liquid water, Martian mountains can grow to truly majestic proportions compared to Earth-bound ones. Mars’s Olympus Mons is the largest known volcano in the solar system. It is about 2.5 times taller than Mt. Everest and so wide that, if placed on North America, it would extend from New York City to Montreal, Canada. The low gravity field also means that mountain climbers would not be burdened by heavy backpacks and would be able to perform prodigious feats of endurance, like astronauts on the moon.

  Adjacent to Olympus Mons are three smaller volcanoes in a straight line. The presence and position of these smaller volcanoes are indicative of ancient tectonic activity on Mars. The Hawaiian Islands here on Earth provide a useful analogy. There is a stationary pool of magma under the Pacific Ocean, and as the tectonic plate moves over this magma pool, the pressure from the magma periodically pushes upward through the crust, creating the latest island in the Hawaiian chain. But tectonic activity seems to have ended on Mars long ago, providing evidence that the core of the planet has cooled down.

  The largest Martian canyon, Mariner Valley, which is probably the largest canyon in the solar system, is so vast that, if placed on North America, it would extend from New York City to Los Angeles. Hikers who have marveled at the Grand Canyon would be astounded by this extraterrestrial canyon network. But unlike the Grand Canyon, Mariner Valley does not have a river at the bottom. The latest theory is that the more-than-three-thousand-mile canyon is the juncture of two ancient tectonic plates, like the San Andreas Fault.

  A prime tourist attraction will be the Red Planet’s two giant polar ice caps, which feature two kinds of ice and differ in composition from those on the Earth. One type of ice cap is made of frozen water. These are a permanent fixture on the landscape and remain roughly the same for much of the Martian year. The other variety consists of dry ice, or frozen carbon dioxide, and they expand or contract depending on the season. In the summer, the dry ice vaporizes and disappears, leaving only the ice caps composed of water. As a result, the appearance of the polar ice caps will vary during the course of the year.

  Whereas the Earth’s surface is continually changing, Mars’s basic topography has not altered much in a few billion years. As a result, Mars has features that have no counterpart on Earth, including remnants of thousands of giant meteor craters that were formed long ago. The Earth once had giant meteor craters as well, but water erosion erased many of them. Furthermore, most of the surface of the Earth is recycled every few hundred million years due to tectonic activity, so ancient craters have all been transformed into new terrain. Looking at Mars, however, is gazing at a landscape frozen in time.

  In many ways, we actually know more about the surface of Mars than the surface of the Earth. About three-quarters of the Earth is covered by the oceans, while Mars has no oceans. Our Mars orbiters have been able to photograph every square meter of its surface and give us detailed maps of its terrain. The combination of ice, snow, dust, and sand dunes on Mars creates all sorts of novel geologic formations that are not seen on Earth. Walking across the Martian terrain would be a hiker’s dream.

  One apparent hindrance to making Mars a tourist destination might be the monster dust devils, which are quite common and can be seen crisscrossing the deserts almost daily. They can be taller than Mt. Everest, dwarfing those on Earth, which only rise a few hundred feet into the air. There are also ferocious, planet-sized dust storms that can envelop all of Mars in a blanket of sand for weeks. But they would not do much damage, thanks to the planet’s low atmospheric pressure. Hundred-mile-an-hour winds would only feel like a ten-mile-an-hour breeze to an astronaut. They may be a nuisance, blowing fine particles into our space suits, machinery, and vehicles and causing malfunctions and breakdowns, but they are not going to topple buildings and structures.

  Because the air is so thin, airplanes would need a much larger wingspan to fly on Mars than on Earth. A solar-powered aircraft would require tremendous surface area and might be too expensive to deploy for recreational purposes. We probably will not see tourists flying through Martian canyons like they do over the Grand Canyon. But balloons and blimps could be a viable means of transportation, in spite of the low temperature and low atmospheric pressure. They could explore the Martian terrain at much closer distances than orbiters, yet still cover vast areas of the surface. One day, fleets of balloons and blimps may be a regular sight over the geologic wonders there.

  MARS: A GARDEN OF EDEN

  To maintain a lasting presence on the Red Planet, we must find a way to create a Garden of Eden on its inhospitable landscape.

  Robert Zubrin, an aerospace engineer who has worked with Martin Marietta and Lockheed Martin, is also founder of the Mars Society and for years has been one of the most vocal proponents of colonizing the Red Planet. His aim is to convince the public to fund a manned mission. Once, he was a lone voice, pleading with anyone who would listen, but now, companies and governments are seeking his advice.

  I have interviewed him on several occasions, and each time his enthusiasm, energy, and dedication to his mission shined through. When I asked him what sparked this fascination with space, he told me that it all started with reading science fiction as a child. He also was mesmerized when, as early as 1952, von Braun showed how a mission of ten spaceships, assembled in orbit, could take a crew of seventy astronauts to Mars.

  I asked Dr. Zubrin how his fascination with science fiction translated into a lifelong quest to reach Mars. “Actually, it was Sputnik,” he said. “To the adult world, it was terrifying, but to me it was exhilarating.” He was captivated by the 1957 launch of the world’s first artificial satellite because it meant that the novels he was reading might come true. Science fiction, he firmly believed, would one day become science fact.

  Dr. Zubrin was part of the generation that saw the United States start from scratch to become the greatest space-faring nation on the planet. Then people began to be consumed by the Vietnam War and internal strife, and walking on the moon seemed increasingly distant and unimportant. Budgets were sla
shed. Programs were canceled. Although the public mood turned against the space program, Dr. Zubrin maintained his conviction that Mars should be the next milestone on our agenda. In 1989, President George H. W. Bush briefly excited the public imagination by announcing plans to reach Mars by 2020—until the following year, when studies showed that the price tag for the project would be about $450 billion. Americans got sticker shock, and the Mars mission was shelved once again.

  Zubrin spent years wandering in the wilderness, trying to drum up support for his ambitious agenda. Acknowledging that the public would not support any scheme that was over budget, Zubrin proposed a number of novel but realistic approaches to colonizing the Red Planet. Before he came along, most people did not seriously consider the problem of financing future space missions.

  In his 1990 proposal, called Mars Direct, Zubrin reduced costs by splitting the mission into two parts. Initially, an unmanned rocket called the Earth Return Vehicle is sent to Mars. It carries a small amount of hydrogen—only 8 tons’ worth—but combines it with the unlimited supply of carbon dioxide that occurs naturally in the Martian atmosphere. This chemical reaction produces up to 112 tons of methane and oxygen and provides enough rocket fuel for the subsequent return voyage. Once the fuel has been generated, astronauts take off in a second vehicle called the Mars Habitat Unit, which contains only enough fuel for a one-way trip to Mars. After the astronauts land, they conduct scientific experiments. Then they leave the Mars Habitat Unit and transfer into the Earth Return Vehicle from the original mission, which is loaded with the newly created rocket fuel. This ship would then bring them back to Earth.

  Critics are sometimes horrified to hear that Zubrin advocated giving travelers a one-way ticket to Mars, as if expecting them to die on the Red Planet. He is careful to explain that the fuel for the return trip can be manufactured on Mars. But he adds, “Life is a one-way trip, and one way to spend it is by going to Mars and starting a new branch of human civilization there.” He believes that five hundred years from now, historians may not remember all the petty wars and conflicts of the twenty-first century, but humanity will celebrate the founding of its new community on Mars.

  NASA has since adopted aspects of the Mars Direct strategy, which changed the philosophy of the Mars program to prioritize cost, efficiency, and living off the land. Zubrin’s Mars Society has also constructed a prototype of an actual Mars base. They chose Utah as the site for their Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) because the environment came closest to simulating the conditions on the Red Planet: cold, deserted, barren, and lacking in vegetation and animals. The core of the MDRS is its habitat, a two-story cylindrical building that can house seven crew members. There is also a large observatory for stargazing. The MDRS takes volunteers from the public, who commit to a two- to three-week stay at the station. The volunteers are trained to behave as actual astronauts with certain obligations and duties, such as conducting science experiments, performing maintenance, and making observations. The organizers of the MDRS try to make the experience as realistic as possible and use these sessions as a way to test the psychological dimension of being isolated on Mars for extended periods with relative strangers. More than one thousand people have passed through the program since it began in 2001.

  The lure of Mars is so strong that it has attracted several ventures of questionable value. The MDRS should not be confused with the Mars One program, which advertises a dubious one-way trip to Mars for those who pass a sequence of tests. Though hundreds have applied, the program has no concrete means of getting to Mars. It claims that it will pay for its rocket by soliciting donations and producing a movie about its mission. Skeptics charge that the leaders of the Mars One program are better at conning the press than attracting genuine scientific expertise.

  Another outlandish attempt to form an isolated colony like one we would create on Mars was a project called Biosphere 2, bankrolled by $150 million from the Bass family fortune. A three-acre domed complex made of glass and steel was erected in the Arizona desert. It could house eight humans and three thousand plant and animal species and was meant to serve as a sealed habitat to test whether humans could survive in a controlled, isolated environment that resembles what we might one day create on another planet. From its start in 1991, the experiment was plagued with a series of mishaps, disputes, scandals, and malfunctions that generated more headlines than real science. Fortunately, the facilities were taken over by the University of Arizona in 2011, and since then they have become a valid research center.

  TO TERRAFORM MARS

  Based on his experience with MDRS and other efforts, Dr. Zubrin predicts that the colonization of Mars will proceed in a predictable sequence. In his view, the first priority is to establish a base for around twenty to fifty astronauts on the surface of Mars. Some would stay for only a few months. Others would become lifers and make the base their permanent home. Over time, the people on Mars would start to see themselves less as astronauts and more as settlers.

  Most supplies would initially have to come from Earth, but in the second phase, the population would rise to a few thousand people, and they would become capable of exploiting the raw materials of the planet. The red color of the sands on Mars is due to the presence of iron oxide, or rust, so settlers would be able to make iron and steel for construction. Electricity can be generated from large solar parks harvesting energy from the sun. The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could be used to cultivate plants. The Mars settlement would gradually become self-sufficient and sustainable.

  The next step is the most difficult of all. Ultimately, the colony will have to find a way to slowly heat the atmosphere so that liquid water can flow on the Red Planet for the first time in three billion years. This would make agriculture and, eventually, cities possible. At that point, we would enter the third stage, and a new civilization could flourish on Mars.

  Rough calculations suggest that it may be prohibitively expensive at present to terraform Mars and that it would take centuries to complete the process. However, what is intriguing and promising about the planet is the geographic evidence that liquid water was once abundant on the surface, etching riverbeds, riverbanks, and even the outline of an ancient ocean the size of the United States. Billions of years ago, Mars cooled down before the Earth did and had a tropical climate when the Earth was still molten. This combination of mild weather and large bodies of water has led some scientists to speculate that DNA originated on Mars. In this scenario a giant meteor impact blasted tremendous amounts of debris into outer space—some of it later landing on Earth and seeding it with Martian DNA. If this theory is correct, then all you have to do to see a Martian is look in the mirror.

  Zubrin points out that terraforming is not a new or strange process. After all, the DNA molecule is continually terraforming the Earth. Life has reshaped every aspect of the Earth’s ecology, from the composition of the atmosphere, to the Earth’s topography, to the makeup of the oceans. So we will simply be following nature’s own script when we begin to terraform Mars.

  JUMP-STARTING THE WARMING OF MARS

  To initiate the process of terraforming, we might inject methane and water vapor into the atmosphere to induce an artificial greenhouse effect. These greenhouse gases would capture sunlight and steadily raise the temperature of the ice caps. As the ice caps melt, they would release trapped water vapor and carbon dioxide.

  We might also send satellites into orbit around Mars to direct concentrated sunlight onto the ice caps. The satellites could be synchronized to hover over a fixed point in the sky and direct energy to the polar regions. On Earth, we angle our satellite TV dishes toward a similar geostationary satellite about twenty-two thousand miles away that appears to be fixed in the sky because it makes a complete revolution around the Earth every twenty-four hours. (Geostationary satellites are in orbit above the equator. This means that the energy from these satellites will either hit the poles at an angle, or the energy will have to be beamed down to the equator and then tr
ansported to the poles. Unfortunately, either alternative involves some loss of energy.)

  In this scheme, these Martian solar satellites would unfurl gigantic sheets, many miles across, containing a vast array of mirrors or solar panels. The sunlight could either be focused and then aimed toward the ice caps, or the energy could be converted using solar cells and then sent down as microwaves. This is one of the most efficient, albeit costly, approaches to terraforming, because it is safe, nonpolluting, and ensures minimal damage to the surface of Mars.

  There have been other proposed strategies. We could consider mining methane-rich Titan, one of the moons of Saturn, and bringing the methane to Mars. The methane could contribute to the desired greenhouse effect—methane, for reference, is over twenty times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide. Another possible method is to make use of nearby comets or asteroids. As we’ve discussed, comets are largely composed of ice, and asteroids are known to contain ammonia, a greenhouse gas. If they happen to pass Mars, they can be deflected slightly so that they orbit the planet. Then they can be further redirected until they execute a very slow death spiral toward Mars. As they enter the Martian atmosphere, friction heats them up until they disintegrate, releasing water vapor or ammonia. This trajectory would be a magnificent sight from the surface of Mars. In some sense, NASA’s Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) can be thought of as a practice run for such an undertaking. The ARM, you recall, is a future NASA mission to either retrieve rock samples from or gently alter the trajectory of a comet or asteroid. Of course, this technology has to be fine-tuned or we risk deflecting a giant asteroid onto the surface of Mars and wreaking havoc on a colony.

  A more unorthodox idea, suggested by Elon Musk, is to melt the ice caps by detonating hydrogen bombs high above them. This method is currently possible with off-the-shelf technology. In principle, hydrogen bombs, although highly protected, are relatively inexpensive to manufacture, and we certainly have the technology to drop scores of them onto the ice caps with existing rockets. However, no one knows how stable the ice caps are or what the long-term effects of this procedure might be, and many scientists are uneasy about the risk of unintended consequences.