The Future of Humanity

by Michio Kaku

  —JAMES AND GREGORY BENFORD

  8 BUILDING A STARSHIP

  In the movie Passengers, the Avalon, a state-of-the-art starship powered by massive fusion engines, is traveling to Homestead II, a colony on a distant planet. The ads for this settlement are alluring. The Earth is old, tired, overpopulated, and polluted. Why not make a fresh start in an exciting world?

  The journey takes 120 years, during which passengers are placed in suspended animation, their bodies frozen in pods. When the Avalon reaches its destination, the ship will automatically awaken its five thousand riders. They will arise from their pods feeling refreshed and ready to build a new life in a new home.

  However, during the trip, a meteor storm punctures the ship’s hull and damages its fusion engines, causing a cascade of malfunctions. One of the passengers is revived prematurely, with ninety years left to go in the voyage. He becomes lonely and depressed by the thought that the ship will not land until long after he is dead. Desperate for companionship, he decides to wake up a beautiful fellow traveler. Naturally, they fall in love. But when she finds out that he deliberately roused her almost a century too soon, and that she, too, will die in interplanetary purgatory, she goes ballistic.

  Movies like Passengers embody recent attempts by Hollywood to inject a little realism into its science fiction. The Avalon makes its trip the old-fashioned way, never exceeding the speed of light. But ask any kid to imagine a starship, and he or she will come up with something like the Enterprise from Star Trek or the Millennium Falcon from Star Wars—capable of whisking crews across the galaxy at a faster-than-light clip, and perhaps even tunneling through space-time and zapping across hyperspace.

  Realistically, our first starships may not be manned and may not resemble any of the huge, sleek vehicles dreamed up in films. In fact, they may be no bigger than a postage stamp. In 2016, my colleague Stephen Hawking startled the world by backing a project called Breakthrough Starshot, which seeks to develop “nanoships,” sophisticated chips placed on sails energized by a huge bank of powerful laser beams on Earth. The chips would each be the size of your thumb, weigh less than an ounce, and contain billions of transistors. One of the most promising aspects of the endeavor is that we can use existing technology to make it happen instead of having to wait one hundred or two hundred years. Hawking claimed that nanoships could be developed for $10 billion in the span of one generation and, using one hundred billion watts of laser power, would be able to travel at one-fifth the speed of light to reach the Centauri system, the nearest star system, in twenty years. By contrast, remember that each space shuttle mission remained in near-Earth orbit but cost almost $1 billion per launch.

  Nanoships would be able to accomplish what chemical rockets never can. Tsiolkovsky’s rocket equation shows that it is impossible for a conventional Saturn rocket to reach the nearest star, since it would need exponentially more fuel the faster it went, and a chemical rocket simply cannot carry enough fuel for a journey of such length. Assuming it could reach the nearby stars, the trip would take about seventy thousand years.

  Most of the energy of a chemical rocket goes into lifting its own weight into space, but a nanoship passively receives its energy from external ground-based lasers, so there is no wasted fuel—100 percent of it goes into propelling the ship. And since nanoships do not have to generate their own energy, they have no moving parts. This significantly reduces the chances of mechanical breakdowns. They also have no explosive chemicals and would not blow up on the launchpad or in space.

  This laser sail, containing a tiny chip as its payload, can be propelled by a beam of lasers to reach 20 percent of the speed of light.  Credit 3

  Computer technology has advanced to the stage where we can pack an entire scientific laboratory into a chip. Nanoships would contain cameras, sensors, chemical kits, and solar cells, all designed to make detailed analyses of faraway planets and radio information back to Earth. Because the cost of computer chips has dropped dramatically, we could send thousands of them to the stars in the hope that a few of them might survive the hazardous journey. (The strategy mimics that of Mother Nature, in which plants scatter thousands of tiny seeds to the winds to boost the odds that some will succeed.)

  A nanoship whizzing by the Centauri system at 20 percent of the speed of light would have just a few hours to complete its mission. In that time frame, it would locate Earth-like planets and rapidly photograph and analyze them to determine their surface characteristics, temperatures, and the composition of their atmospheres, in particular looking for the presence of water or oxygen. It would also scan the star system for radio emissions, which might indicate the existence of alien intelligence.

  Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, has publicly supported Breakthrough Starshot, and Russian investor and former physicist Yuri Milner has personally pledged $100 million. Nanoships are already much more than an idea. But there are several obstacles we must reckon with before we can fully execute the project.

  PROBLEMS WITH LASER SAILS

  To send a fleet of nanoships to Alpha Centauri, a laser bank would have to fire a barrage of beams totaling at least one hundred gigawatts at the parachutes of the ships for about two minutes. The light pressure from these laser beams would send the ships darting into space. The beams must be aimed with astonishing precision to ensure that the ships hit their target. The slightest deviation in their trajectory would compromise the mission.

  The main hurdle we face is not the basic science, which is already available, but funding, even with several high-profile scientists and entrepreneurs on board.

  Each nuclear power plant costs several billion dollars and can generate only one gigawatt, or a billion watts, of power. The process of soliciting federal and private financing for a sufficiently powerful and accurate laser bank is causing a severe bottleneck.

  As a practice run before aiming for distant stars, scientists may decide to send nanoships to closer destinations within the solar system. It would take them only five seconds to zip to the moon, about an hour and a half to get to Mars, and a few days to reach Pluto. Rather than waiting ten years for a mission to the outer planets, we could receive new information about them from nanoships in a matter of days, and in this way we could observe the developments in the solar system very nearly in real time.

  In a subsequent phase of the project, we might attempt to set up a battery of laser cannons on the moon. When a laser passes through the Earth’s atmosphere, about 60 percent of its energy is lost. A lunar launch facility would help to remedy this problem, and solar panels on the moon could provide cheap and plentiful electrical energy to fuel the laser beams. Recall that one lunar day is equivalent to about thirty Earth days, so the energy could be efficiently collected and stored in batteries. This system would save us billions of dollars, because unlike nuclear power, sunlight is free.

  By the early twenty-second century, the technology for self-replicating robots should be perfected, and we may be able to entrust machines with the task of constructing solar arrays and laser batteries on the moon, Mars, and beyond. We would ship over an initial team of automatons, some of which would mine the regolith and others of which would build a factory. Another set of robots would oversee the sorting, milling, and smelting of raw materials in the factory to separate and obtain various metals. These purified metals could then be used to assemble laser launch stations—and a new batch of self-replicating robots.

  We might eventually have a bustling network of relay stations throughout the solar system, perhaps stretching from the moon all the way to the Oort Cloud. Because the comets in the Oort Cloud extend roughly halfway to Alpha Centauri and are largely stationary, they may be ideal locations for laser banks that could provide an extra boost to nanoships on their journey to our neighboring star system. As each nanoship passed by one of these relay stations, its lasers would fire automatically and give the ship an added push to the stars.

  Self-replicating robots could build these distant outposts by
using fusion instead of sunlight as the basic source of energy.

  LIGHT SAILS

  Laser-propelled nanoships are just one type in a much larger category of starships called light sails. Just as sailboats capture the force of the wind, light sails harness the light pressure from sunlight or lasers. In fact, many of the equations used to guide sailboats can also be applied to light sails in outer space.

  Light is made up of particles called photons, and when photons strike an object they do exert a minuscule pressure. Because light pressure is so small, scientists were not aware of its existence for a long time. It was Johannes Kepler who first noticed the effect when he realized that, contrary to expectations, comet tails always point away from the sun. Kepler correctly surmised that pressure from sunlight creates these tails by blowing dust and ice crystals in comets away from the sun.

  The prescient Jules Verne anticipated light sails in From the Earth to the Moon when he wrote, “There will some day appear velocities far greater than these, of which light or electricity will probably be the mechanical agent…we shall one day travel to the moon, the planets, and the stars.”

  Tsiolkovsky further developed the concept of solar sails, or spaceships that utilize light pressure from the sun. But the history of solar sails has been spotty. NASA has not made them a priority. The Planetary Society’s Cosmos 1 in 2005 and NASA’s NanoSail-D in 2008 both suffered launch failures. They were followed by NASA’s NanoSail-D2, which entered low-Earth orbit in 2010. The only successful attempt to send a solar sail past Earth orbit was accomplished by the Japanese in 2010. The IKAROS satellite deployed a sail that was forty-six feet by forty-six feet in size and was powered by solar light pressure. It reached Venus in six months, thereby proving that solar sails were feasible.

  The idea continues to percolate despite its erratic progress. The European Space Agency is considering launching the Gossamer solar sail, whose purpose would be to “deorbit” some of the thousands of pieces of space junk littering the area around Earth.

  I recently interviewed Geoffrey Landis, an MIT-educated NASA scientist working on the Mars program as well as on light sails. Both he and his wife, Mary Turzillo, are award-winning science fiction novelists. I asked him how he managed to bridge such different worlds—one populated by meticulous scientists and their complex equations, the other filled with space groupies and UFO buffs. He responded that science fiction was wonderful because it allowed him to speculate far into the future. Physics, he said, kept him grounded.

  Landis’s specialization is the light sail. He has proposed a starship for the journey to Alpha Centauri that would consist of a light sail made of an ultrathin layer of a diamond-like material several hundred miles across. The ship would be gigantic, weighing a million tons, and would require resources from across the solar system to build and operate, including energy from laser banks near Mercury. To be able to stop at its destination, the ship would contain a large “magnetic parachute,” with the field produced by a loop of wire sixty miles in diameter. Hydrogen atoms from space would pass through the loop and generate friction, which would gradually slow down the light sail over several decades. A round-trip to Alpha Centauri and back would take two centuries, so the crew would have to be multigenerational. Although this starship is physically achievable, it would be costly, and Landis conceded that it might take fifty to one hundred years to actually assemble and test. In the meantime, he is helping to build the Breakthrough Starshot laser sail.

  ION ENGINES

  In addition to laser propulsion and solar sails, there are a number of other potential ways to energize a starship. To compare them, it is useful to introduce a concept called “specific impulse,” which is the thrust of the rocket multiplied by the time over which the rocket fires. (Specific impulse is measured in units of seconds.) The longer a rocket fires its engines, the larger its specific impulse, from which its final velocity can be calculated.

  Here is a simple chart that ranks the specific impulse of several types of rockets. I have not included some designs—like the laser rocket, solar sail, and ramjet fusion rocket—that technically have a specific impulse of infinity, since their engines can be fired indefinitely.

  ROCKET ENGINE SPECIFIC IMPULSE

  Solid fuel rocket 250

  Liquid fuel rocket 450

  Nuclear fission rocket 800 to 1,000

  Ion engine 5,000

  Plasma engine 1,000 to 30,000

  Nuclear fusion rocket 2,500 to 200,000

  Nuclear pulsed rocket 10,000 to 1 million

  Antimatter rocket 1 million to 10 million

  Notice that chemical rockets, which burn for only a few minutes, have the lowest specific impulse. Next on the list are the ion engines, which may be useful for missions to nearby planets. Ion engines start by taking a gas like xenon, stripping the electrons off its atoms to turn them into ions (charged fragments of atoms), and then accelerating these ions with an electric field. The inside of an ion engine bears some resemblance to the inside of a TV monitor, where electric and magnetic fields guide a beam of electrons.

  The thrust of ion engines is so excruciatingly small—often measured in ounces—that when you turn one on in the lab, nothing seems to happen. But once in space, over time they can attain velocities exceeding chemical rockets. Ion engines have been compared to the tortoise in the race with the hare—which, in this case, would be chemical rockets. Although the hare can sprint with enormous speed, it can only do so for a few minutes before it is exhausted. The tortoise, on the other hand, is slower but can walk for days and thus wins long-distance competitions. Ion rockets can operate for years at a time and hence have considerably larger specific impulses than chemical rockets.

  To increase the power of an ion engine, one might ionize the gas using microwaves or radio waves and then use magnetic fields to accelerate the ions. This is called a plasma engine, which, in theory, could cut the travel time to Mars from nine months to fewer than forty days, according to its proponents, but the technology is still in development. (One limiting factor to plasma engines is the large amount of electricity necessary to create the plasma, which may even require a nuclear power plant for interplanetary missions.)

  NASA has studied and built ion engines for decades. For example, the Deep Space Transport, which may take our astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, uses ion propulsion. Late in this century, ion engines will most likely become the backbone of interplanetary space missions. Although chemical rockets might still be the best option for time-sensitive missions, ion engines would be a solid, dependable choice when time is not the most important consideration.

  Beyond the ion engine on the specific impulse chart are propulsion systems that are more speculative. We will discuss each of them in the following pages.

  100 YEAR STARSHIP

  In 2011, DARPA and NASA funded a symposium entitled the 100 Year Starship. It generated considerable interest. The aim was not to build an actual starship within one hundred years but to assemble top scientific minds who could lay out a feasible agenda for interstellar travel for the next century. The project was organized by members of the Old Guard, an informal group of elderly physicists and engineers, many now in their seventies, who seek to draw upon their collective knowledge to take us to the stars. They have passionately kept the flame alive for decades.

  Landis is a member of the Old Guard. But there is also an unusual pair among them, James and Gregory Benford, twins who happen to both be physicists as well as science fiction writers. James told me that his fascination with starships began when he was a child devouring all the science fiction he could get his hands on, especially Robert Heinlein’s old Space Cadet series. He realized that if he and his brother were serious about space, they would have to learn physics. Lots of it. So both set off to get their Ph.D.s in the field. James is now the president of Microwave Sciences and has worked for many decades with high-powered microwave systems. Gregory is a professor of physics at the University of California, Irvine, and in h
is other life has won the coveted Nebula Award for one of his novels.

  In the wake of the 100 Year Starship symposium, James and Gregory wrote a book, Starship Century: Toward the Grandest Horizon, containing many of the ideas presented there. James, an expert on microwave radiation, believes that light sails are our best chance of travel beyond the solar system. But, he said, there is a long history of alternate theoretical designs that would be exceedingly expensive but are based on solid physics and might one day actually happen.

  NUCLEAR ROCKETS

  This history goes back to the 1950s, an era when most people lived in terror of nuclear war but a few atomic scientists were looking for peaceful applications for nuclear energy. They considered all sorts of ideas, such as deploying nuclear weapons to carve out ports and harbors.

  Most of these suggestions were rejected due to concerns about the fallout and disruption from nuclear explosions. One intriguing proposal that lingered, however, was called Project Orion, and it sought to use nuclear bombs as the power source for starships.

  The skeleton of the plan was simple: create mini atomic bombs and eject them one by one from the back end of a starship. Each time a mini nuke exploded, it would create a shockwave of energy that would push the starship forward. In principle, if a series of mini nukes were released in succession, the rocket could accelerate to nearly the speed of light.

  The idea was developed by nuclear physicist Ted Taylor along with Freeman Dyson. Taylor was famous for designing a wide variety of nuclear bombs, from the largest fission bomb ever detonated (with a force of about twenty-five times the Hiroshima bomb) down to the little Davy Crockett portable nuclear canon (with a force one thousand times smaller than the Hiroshima bomb). But he longed to channel his extensive knowledge of nuclear explosives toward peaceful purposes. He jumped at the opportunity to pioneer the Orion starship.