by David Robson
31 Cochrane, B.S., Hagins Jr, M., Picciano, G., King, J.A., Marshall, D.A., Nelson, B. and Deao, C. (2017), ‘High Reliability in Healthcare: Creating the Culture and Mindset for Patient Safety’, Healthcare Management Forum, 30(2), 61–8.
32 See the following paper for one example: Roberts, K.H., Madsen, P., Desai, V. and Van Stralen, D. (2005), ‘A Case of the Birth and Death of a High Reliability Healthcare Organisation’, BMJ Quality & Safety, 14(3), 216–20. A further discussion can also be found here: Sutcliffe, K.M., Vogus, T.J. and Dane, E. (2016), ‘Mindfulness in Organizations: A Cross-level Review’, Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, 3, 55–81.
33 Dweck, C. (2014), ‘Talent: How Companies Can Profit From a “Growth Mindset” ’, Harvard Business Review, 92(11), 7.
34 National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Deep Water, p. 237.
35 Carter, J.P. (2006), ‘The Transformation of the Nuclear Power Industry’, IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, 4(6), 25?33.
36 Koch, W. (20 April 2015), ‘Is Deepwater Drilling Safer, 5 Years after Worst Oil Spill?’ National Geographic, https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/04/150420-bp-gulf-oil-spill-safety-five-years-later/. See also the following for a discussion of the oil industry’s self-regulation, and the reasons it is not comparable to INPO: ‘An Update on Self-Regulation in the Oil Drilling Industry’ (2012), George Washington Journal of Energy and Environmental Law, https://gwjeel.com/2012/02/08/an-update-on-self-regulation-in-the-oil-drilling-industry/.
37 Beyer, J., Trannum, H.C., Bakke, T., Hodson, P.V. and Collier, T.K. (2016), ‘Environmental Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A Review’, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 110(1), 28?51.
38 Lane, S.M., et al. (November 2015), ‘Reproductive Outcome and Survival of Common Bottlenose Dolphins Sampled in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA, Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill’, Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282(1818), 20151944.
39 Jamail, D. (20 April 2012), ‘Gulf Seafood Deformities Alarm Scientists’, Al Jazeera.com, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/04/201241682318260912.html.
Epilogue
1 Besides the material covered in Chapters 1, 7 and 8, see the following: Jacobson, D., Parker, A., Spetzler, C., De Bruin, W.B., Hollenbeck, K., Heckerman, D. and Fischhoff, B. (2012), ‘Improved Learning in US History and Decision Competence with Decision-focused Curriculum’, PLOS One, 7(9), e45775.
2 Owens, B.P., Johnson, M.D. and Mitchell, T.R. (2013), ‘Expressed Humility in Organizations: Implications for Performance, Teams, and Leadership’, Organization Science, 24(5), 1517–38.
3 Sternberg, R.J. (in press), ‘Race to Samarra: The Critical Importance of Wisdom in the World Today’, in Sternberg, R.J. and Glueck, J. (eds), Cambridge Handbook of Wisdom (2nd edn), New York: Cambridge University Press.
4 Howell, L. (2013), ‘Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World’, WEF Report, 3, 15–94.
5 Wang, H. and Li, J. (2015), ‘How Trait Curiosity Influences Psychological Well-Being and Emotional Exhaustion: The Mediating Role of Personal Initiative’, Personality and Individual Differences, 75, 135?40.
Acknowledgements
This book could not exist if it were not for the generosity of many people. Thanks most of all to my agent, Carrie Plitt, for her enthusiastic belief in my proposal and her support and guidance ever since. Thanks also to the rest of the team at Felicity Bryan Associates, Zoë Pagnamenta in New York, and the team at Andrew Nurnberg Associates for helping to spread the word in the rest of the world.
I have been lucky to have been guided by my editors, Drummond Moir at Hodder & Stoughton and Matt Weiland at WW Norton. Their wise judgement and tactful edits have improved this book no end and I have learnt so much from their advice. Thanks also to Cameron Myers at Hodder for his suggestions and for all his help in ensuring the editorial process flowed as smoothly as possible.
I am incredibly grateful to the many experts who shared their insights and knowledge with me. These include: David Perkins, Robert Sternberg, James Flynn, Keith Stanovich, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Dan Kahan, Hugo Mercier, Itiel Dror, Rohan Williamson, Igor Grossmann, Ethan Kross, Andrew Hafenbrack, Silvia Mamede, Pat Croskerry, Norbert Schwarz, Eryn Newman, Gordon Pennycook, Michael Shermer, Stephan Lewandowsky, John Cook, Susan Engel, Carol Dweck, Tenelle Porter, James Stigler, Robert and Elizabeth Bjork, Ellen Langer, Anita Williams Woolley, Angus Hildreth, Bradley Owens, Amy Yi Ou, Andre Spicer, Catherine Tinsley, Karlene Roberts – and the many other interviewees who have not been quoted, but whose expertise nevertheless contributed to my argument.
Thanks also to Brandon Mayfield for kindly sharing his experiences with me; Michael Story, who gave me a little glimpse of what it means to be a super-forecaster; and Jonny Davidson for his help with the diagrams. I am also grateful to the staff and students at the Intellectual Virtues Academy in Long Beach, who could not have been more welcoming during my visit.
Richard Fisher at BBC Future first commissioned me to write a piece on the ‘downsides of being intelligent’ in 2015. Thanks for setting the ball in motion, and for the continued encouragement and advice throughout my career. And thanks to my friends and colleagues, including Sally Adee, Eileen and Peter Davies, Kate Douglas, Stephen Dowling, Natasha and Sam Fenwick, Simon Frantz, Melissa Hogenboom, Olivia Howitt, Christian Jarrett, Emma and Sam Partington, Jo Perry, Alex Riley, Matthew Robson, Neil and Lauren Sullivan, Helen Thomson, Richard Webb and Clare Wilson, who have all offered invaluable support. I owe you all many drinks. A Marta, Luca, Damiano e Stefania, grazie infinite.
I owe more than I can describe to my parents, Margaret and Albert, and to Robert Davies, for your support in every step of this journey. I could not have written this book without you.
Picture Credits
The publisher would like to thank the following for their permission to reproduce these images. Every attempt has been made to contact the copyright holders, however if any omissions have occurred please contact the publishers and we will rectify any errors at the earliest opportunity.
Courtesy of National Library of Medicine/NCBI
Wikimedia/Life of Riley. CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en
Our World in Data/Max Roser CC BY-SA https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/au/
Kahan, D.M. ‘Ordinary science intelligence’: a science-comprehension measure for study of risk and science communication, with notes on evolution and climate change, J. Risk Ress 20, 995–1016 (2017).
Courtesy of the US Department of Justice’s Office of the Inspector General’s report ‘Review of the FBI’s Handling of the Brandon Mayfield Case’ https://oig.justice.gov/special/s1105.pdf
Diagram and captions created by the author
Roderick I. Swaab, Michael Schaerer, Eric M. Anicich, et al. ‘The TooMuchTalent Effect: Team Interdependence Determines When More Talent Is Too Much or Not Enough’ Psychological Science 25(8), 1581–1591 (2014). Reprinted by Permission of SAGE Publications, Inc.