Civil War II

by Eric Gurr

  If you print money and it doesn’t work, you’ll cause hyperinflation or you’ll expose our weakness to the bond speculators. If that cascades, all of these folks who are getting laid off are going to have a tougher time finding a new job.

  If you do this and bonds collapse, how are we going to pay for unemployment benefits? The last time we extended them. Will you be able to do that this time?

  Look at the protests happening now. Two years ago it would have been college kids for the most part. Now you have middle-aged suburbanites coming into the cities to protest or counter-protest. Do you know why? It’s because these people believed in the system for their entire lives. They worked and paid taxes. They have lovely homes and they had full bellies. Now, a few months after being laid off they aren’t getting help. They don’t get food stamps or unemployment checks as promised.”

  The Democrat Speaker of the House protested.

  “Congressman Van Driessen, I’m sure you realize that those few who aren’t getting unemployment or food stamps is not because the nation is broke. We have the money. It’s just the protests have slowed down the mail delivery and Government agencies in the city can’t get to their places of work. We have the money. This will be fixed as soon as the election is over and the protestors go back home.”

  “Bullshit.” Van Driessen said. “Tax revenues are way down and you know it. We’re borrowing money illegally right now. Printing money illegally is the more proper term. A hungry man who believes he is having his life ripped away from him will fight. This will get worse if you don’t fix it now.”

  Jane Watson was growing frustrated. “Congressman Van Driessen, your tariffs have been tried. During the Great Depression, the Smoot-Hawley tariff made things worse, not better.”

  Then the Senate Majority leader a staunch Republican added his thoughts, “She is right Mr. Van Driessen, this nation has always been for free trade. Tariffs cause prices to go up and other problems.” He said it in a condescending, tone but Van Driessen let it pass.

  “You are both wrong. Completely wrong. Smoot-Hawley was probably too high. But even before that, we had about a thirty-five percent tariff. And all through the nineteenth century, we had tariffs.

  When Smoot-Hawley was repealed in 1937, the nation sank into another depression within the Great Depression. We are sending more money out of the country than the growth of GDP. Do you not understand that this cannot go on forever?

  There was no answer to his question. There was a motion to have an unofficial vote. Just minutes later the board voted along with the politicians to bail out the banks and try to stimulate the economy. They all agreed to speak as one voice praising the decision. All but Van Driessen.

  When asked if he would at least keep quiet he just shook his head softly and walked out. He stopped at the door and turned to look at everyone in the meeting. His eyes moved slowly from person to person.

  “This will not work. You seem to believe that violence is something that only happens in the inner cities. You think that the nice white people in the suburbs and rural areas are more civilized. You are wrong.

  The inner cities are violent because they lack hope, they feel beaten down and irrelevant. You will soon find that all human beings can be reduced to violence. The most dangerous animal on the planet is a man filled with righteous indignation and an empty stomach.

  You are renting out your minds to yesterday’s thinkers. Not one of you came up with an alternative idea. Not one of you even suggested another path may be better. I hope that your plan works. I want it to work. Civil unrest, violence, and civil war are horrible. No one wins. You believe it cannot happen here. You are wrong. Western Europe is burning. We’ve had protests and riots for months here in The United States. This will get worse.”

  And with that, he left.

  There were a few nods of disbelief at this crazy old man who had somehow ended up in Congress. Most believed he was wrong but they were afraid to speak up. All hoped that he would not win the election for a full two-year term on his own. They knew that if he did, he would not keep quiet. And they were right.

  As the group started to pack their papers and began to shuffle out of the meeting they noticed the president had not moved. The entire group paused to look at him and see if he had something to say. His head was bowed slightly and he was rubbing his hands together in deep contemplation. He too had approved of the plan to bail out the banks and stimulate the economy.

  The Federal Reserve Chairwoman felt compelled to speak because everyone else was just staring awkwardly. “Is there something else Mr. President?”

  Bill Johnson, the first time politician and president of The United States raised his head slowly and looked directly into her eyes.

  “Are you sure this is going to work?”

  Jane Watson offered a soft and slightly condescending smile. She had fallen into the trap of most high-level Washington insiders over the last few years. She thought she was smarter than the politicians.

  “Mr. President, nothing is certain of course. But this is the best tool we have to keep the economy afloat until conditions improve. This is tried and tested and will, despite some objections from newer members, not make things worse, and will help. Will it fix it completely? Again, nothing can be 100% certain. But it will help tremendously. Of that, we have no doubt.”

  The president smiled and nodded. ‘She has said nothing, and she has no idea.’ He thought to himself.

  Chapter 2:

  November

  The news anchors, the pundits, and the politicians were exhausted.

  It was Two O’clock in the morning, and no one could determine who had won the presidential election. The talk was mostly about the protests and riots that had broken out in nearly every city in the country.

  President Johnson was ahead in Wisconsin by less than 500 votes. Those 500 votes, if they held, would give him an Electoral College victory and he would remain President of The United States.

  He had lost the popular vote in spectacular fashion. More than five million people had voted for Swindell than Johnson. But the entirety of the margin was from California. Something was wrong in California. Nationwide it had been a high turnout election. Over sixty-six percent had voted. But in California, the number was nearly eighty percent.

  Victor Van Driessen sat alone in his house. His wife had passed years ago, His two children raised and long moved away. By 8:00 PM it was clear he had won his first full term in Congress.

  There had been national media focused on the race. The sixty-seven-year-old Republican should have lost to his challenger handily. It was a split district that had been leaning left. Van Driessen had been painted in the media as a hard right lunatic. He had been called a racist, bigot and an old fool.

  He had won with just over sixty percent of the vote. Something he had said had resonated with the voters. People were frightened.

  He watched television flipping from Fox News to CNN as the talking heads droned on. It was clear no one knew what the outcome would be. He turned off the television just as the phone rang.

  “Mr. Van Driessen, this is, well this is President Johnson. I wanted to call and congratulate you on your win. I hope I didn’t wake you.”

  Van Driessen was instantly wide awake. This is a call he wasn’t expecting. He had never spoken to the President before.

  “Oh, well thank you, Mr. President. And it looks as if congratulations are in order for you as well.”

  “Maybe, but that’s part of the reason I actually called you Vic. May I call you Vic?” He asked.

  “Sure Mr. President.”

  “And why don’t you call me Bill. I want this to be off the record and informal. When we were in that meeting a few weeks ago, you said you thought that the Fed’s action would cause a civil war. How serious were you with that comment?”

  Van Driessen paused for a long moment. He knew this phone call was important, he just didn’t know where it was going. “It’s not just the Fed’s action Mr. Pr
esident. It’s that this isn’t going to work. We have high immigration and have had that for years. We have stagnant, or at best, slowly growing wages. And we’ve had that for years. We also have a massive imbalance in imports and exports. We’ve tried to trick the middle class into thinking they still have money. But they don’t. We’ve let them, hell we’ve encouraged them, to keep borrowing to keep the mirage going.

  So when the Fed prints the money this time, the average Joe may believe it worked. And may go about his business. But the business owner and the investor know better. They may not understand it correctly, but they know the FED is printing money. And they know that means their money won’t be worth as much. So they are going to start laying people off and stop investing. They are going to want to hold cash and hard assets. And God only knows what the bond buyers are going to do.

  Sir, I think it’s a recipe for disaster. And yes, if it doesn’t work, and I don’t think it will, I believe there is going to be hell to pay. A civil war? It may not come to that, but nothing right now suggests that it won’t.”

  “And now we have these election problems.” The president added.

  Van Driessen paused again. He had the same thought just minutes ago and tried to put it out of his mind. He needed to relax. This was an important conversation.

  It was clear President Johnson was starting to understand how divided the nation really was. He wanted the President to trust him. Maybe this could be stopped. Perhaps civil war or widespread violence could be avoided.

  “Mr. President, I was just thinking the same thing.”

  “So, if a few votes more came in for Swindell, and I conceded, that would stop a recount, and maybe it could bring the country back together. I keep looking at the news from Europe. Those protests get more violent by the day. I think that is what is driving some of the division here. If I stepped away wouldn’t it help?” The president offered.

  “No. please don’t do that. I know some of the people around you are probably suggesting that, but it’s a bad idea.”

  “No one has suggested it.” The president said. “But I can feel it. And I think it may be the best course of action. Swindell did win the popular vote. Not by the margin they are saying. We know there was widespread fraud in California and North Carolina.

  We can’t challenge North Carolina because we have our own problems there. But the data guys are telling me we actually won. Swindell finished about four-thousand votes ahead, but I am being told me we actually won by ten thousand.

  There isn’t much we can do about it. California, I lost. But, they are telling me that millions of votes are just not possible. So I lost the popular vote and the electoral vote is hanging by a thread. I don’t want to see this country tear itself apart Vic.”

  “You lost California, and Connecticut, Vermont, New York, and Massachusetts as well. But let me ask you, how much time did you spend campaigning in those states? How much money did you spend advertising? You campaigned to win the Electoral College. And you did. Would it have been better had you sunk resources in those states, won the popular vote and lost anyway? Do you think the left would be screaming to let you be president?”

  The president was silent for a long time. “I just don’t want my presidency to be the cause of violence. This is a great nation. The greatest that has ever existed. I know that in my mind and my heart. I just want to do the right thing.”

  “The right thing is to follow the law, Mr. President. The right thing is to fight. If you quit, you’ll solve nothing. Your supporters on the right already don’t trust the government. They trust you. They will never accept it if you quit.

  If you fight and win, and if the economy doesn’t slow too much, we will probably be able to avoid violence. Hell, we may be fine no matter what happens. We aren’t going to go back to the Stone Age even if the economy falls drastically. People may be just comfortable enough to stop short of violence. At least for a while. But if you concede, and it’s perceived as a surrender, things will get worse. Much worse. Of that I am sure.”

  “There’s something else Vic.” The president added.

  “At about four this afternoon I got a message from the Fed. The bonds aren’t selling. They think we’re going to have to raise the rate by a full point. That means this is going to cost us a lot more than we planned for. We’re also hearing that it looks like unemployment by the end of the month is going to pass twelve percent. That’s a full three points up from just one month ago.”

  Van Driessen thought the unemployment number was a foregone conclusion. The bond issue shocked him. It should have taken a few months for that to happen. This was a bad omen coming so quickly on the bailouts.

  “More reason to fight Mr. President. If you concede I think it will make things worse.”

  The two men talked for more than an hour. They spoke about the widespread violence in France and Germany. They discussed the slowing economy and trouble in China.

  It seemed as if the entire world was simmering and about to blow up. The economy in The United States was clearly heading down, but it was much better than just about anywhere else in the world.

  When the conversation ended, Van Driessen was happy that the President had decided not to concede. He would fight.

  But he was more concerned about a civil war. The President had told him other things that were about to get worse. The unemployment rate was going to continue to rise. The ability of the government to borrow more money, which would be necessary for unemployment benefits, food stamps, Medicaid and Social Security wasn’t going to be easy. With Europe’s problems and now apparently issues in South America, the economy was going to shrink even faster.

  The protests in Europe were growing. The European Union was being ripped apart at the seams. Germany was softening its unemployment problems by bringing hundreds of thousands of young men into its army. France was starting along the same course. Those two nations were working together to put pressure on Eastern Europe to take in some of the millions of immigrants.

  What if war breaks out in Europe and civil unrest, or civil war happens in The United States? Van Driessen didn’t want to think about it.

  But the biggest news to break was that some of the Republicans were suggesting extensive deportation. The thought process was logical. If the president was right, and the economy was going to get worse, it meant they weren’t going to be able to provide for the citizens, much less thirty million immigrants. Democrats had gotten wind of the plan just yesterday. Too late to make it an election issue. And they were vowing to stop it.

  Van Driessen was sure this was going to be all over the news and the left would use it to try and push President Johnson to concede. Things were going to get ugly. Would millions of immigrants, both legal and illegal, join the protests? If they thought they were going to be deported, they would fight.

  If the left thought the election had been stolen from them, they would fight.

  Then there were the millions that had lost their jobs or might over the next few months. What would they do? Who would they blame?

  The nation was a powder keg. But those who could stop it from exploding were afraid to do so or didn’t know what to do. The men like Van Driessen and Vice President Hoxworth who might have had a workable plan were powerless.

  Van Driessen walked back to his bedroom and laid down in bed. He was staring at the ceiling. The President was a bombastic man. He would fly off the cuff at times with a terrible temper. He didn’t trust anyone but his own inner circle. He was thought to have an incredible ego, which was saying something in Washington D.C., they all had huge egos. And yet he had considered conceding. He would walk away if he thought it would help the nation.

  Van Driessen wondered if the President was right. Had he given the President bad advice? It was nearly impossible to sleep. He could see no path in his mind to avoid what was coming. If the president conceded and things fell apart, the right would want blood.

  If the President won, even if the economy turne
d around, the left would feel like the election had been stolen from them. So they might fight. But if the won and the economy collapsed, everyone might want to fight.

  The news of the Republican plan for deporting immigrants was also a risk. It would save money. There was no doubt it would help. But the Republicans would take a beating from the media and the Democrats. Was it right to send millions of people back to countries where things were probably even worse off?

  Van Driessen sat up and put his head in his hands. He had only been in politics for a few months. In that time he realized that ninety percent of what politicians fought about was silly and easy to resolve. It was made complicated only by politicians.

  This was different. There was no easy answer. For the first time, Van Driessen could not see a path to a peaceful outcome. No matter what happened roughly half the nation was going to be outraged.

  There was only one question left. Of those that were going to be outraged, how many would fight?

  Van Driessen was sure of one thing. The fuse had been lit. There was no way to avoid the fight that was coming. His mission in life would be to stop it from turning in to a civil war. Nothing else mattered.

  Chapter 3

  Colby Ohlbinger

  Colby Ohlbinger was wide awake. The sun was coming up, and he knew he was at the center of the storm.

  He had been glued to the television and his phone since He’d left the polls at 9:30. They had faked a few ballots. Maybe a few hundred at most. But it wasn’t enough. The Republicans had cheated, he knew it. He and his cohorts had cheated for the Democrats and they told each other they were justified in doing so.

  There would be a recount. But that was out of his control. The mission now was to lead. Too many of his friends and associates wanted to wait for the recount, and then start the protests if they lost. Ohlbinger knew they had to begin tonight. He had all day to prepare. Johnson hadn’t conceded and his Democrat opponent Swindell hadn’t conceded. The battle for the future would take place here in Madison Wisconsin.