The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

by Laurence C. Smith

  425 From Alberta Energy, the total area leased for in situ (underground) development as of May 19, 2009, is 79,298 square kilometers. J. Grant, S. Dyer, D. Woynillowicz, “Clearing the Air on Oil Sands Myths” (Drayton Valley, Alberta: The Pembina Institute, June 2009), 32 pp., www.pembina.org. Future projections from B. Söderbergh et al., “A Crash Programme Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry,” Energy Policy 35, no. 3 (2007): 1931-1947. As of 2009, oil production from Alaska’s North Slope averaged about seven hundred thousand barrels per day.

  426 Government of Canada, Policy Research Initiative, “The Emergence of Cross-Border Regions between Canada and the United States, Final Report” (November 2008), 78 pp., www.policyresearch.gc.ca. See also D. K. Alper, “The Idea of Cascadia: Emergent Regionalisms in the Pacific Northwest-Western Canada,” Journal of Borderland Studies 11, no. 2 (1996): 1-22; S. E. Clarke, “Regional and Transnational Discourse: The Politics of Ideas and Economic Development in Cascadia,” International Journal of Economic Development 2, no. 3 (2000): 360-378; H. Nicol, “Resiliency or Change? The Contemporary Canada-U.S. Border,” Geopolitics 10 (2005): 767-790; V. Conrad, H. N. Nicol, Beyond Walls: Re-inventing the Canada-United States Borderlands (Aldershot, Hampshire, and Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate, 2008), 360 pp.

  427 See www.atlantica.org.

  428 This discovery of common sociocultural values within cross-border superregions is based on survey data, Government of Canada, Policy Research Initiative, “The Emergence of Cross-Border Regions between Canada and the United States,” Final Report (November 2008), 78 pp, www.policyresearch.gc.ca.

  429 The U.S. State Department recently quelled any hint of a U.S. claim to a half-dozen islands off Russia’s Arctic coast, even though Americans were involved with the discovery and exploration of some of them. “Status of Wrangel and Other Arctic Islands,” U.S. Department of State, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, Washington, D.C., May 20, 2003. While Canadian politicians like to fret about protecting Canada’s vast northern territories from the United States and Russia, there is little evidence that either country has designs on them. Indeed, the United States provides tacit military backing of Canadian sovereignty there. For more on the relative success of U.S.-Canada relations, see K. S. Coates et al., Arctic Front: Defending Canada in the Far North (Toronto: Thomas Allen Publishers, 2008), 261 pp. However, while the likelihood of conflict between Arctic nation-states is low, there is ongoing domestic tension from aboriginal groups over land title, as is discussed in Chapter 8.

  430 Another area of increasing cross-border economic ties is between Russia and the U.S., with Chukotka Autonomous Okrug in the Russian Far East increasingly importing fuel and other supplies from Alaska. J. Newell, The Russian Far East (Simi Valley, Calif.: Daniel & Daniel Publishers, Inc., 2004), 466 pp.

  431 This table was constructed using data from the following sources: 2009 Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal (179 countries, www.heritage.org); 2008 Economic Freedom of the World Index (141 countries, http://www.freetheworld.com/2008/EconomicFreedomoftheWorld2008.pdf); 2009 KOF Index of Globalization (208 countries, http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/); 2009 Global Peace Index (144 countries, http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/rankings.php); 2008 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index (167 countries, http://graphics.eiu.com/PDF/Democracy%20Index%202008.pdf); 2009 Freedom in the World Country Rankings (193 countries, http://www.freedomhouse.org). To allow comparison between these indices, numeric index data were converted to percentile country rank. Taking an average of these percentile rankings provides the composite score in the right-most column of the table.

  432 Each index has its own agenda, which is why I prefer to look at all of them. Jeffrey Sachs, for example, questions the contention in Index of Economic Freedom that trade liberalization necessarily leads to GDP growth, citing examples, like China, which have very strong economic growth despite low scores on the index. J. Sachs, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time (New York: Penguin Group, 2005), 416 pp.

  433 Most oil and gas outfits operating in the northern high latitudes are private multinational companies, except in the Russian Federation, where the industry is increasingly returning to state control.

  434 The 2010 Economist Intelligence Unit assessed 140 countries in their global livability index. The four NORC cities making the top ten were Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, and Helsinki; the others were Vienna, Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Adelaide, and Auckland. The world’s lowest-ranked cities were Dakar, Colombo, Kathmandu, Douala, Karachi, Lagos, Port Moresby, Algiers, Dhaka, and Harare. EIU Press Release, “Winter Olympics Host, Vancouver, Ranked World’s Most Liveable City,” February 10, 2010, http://www.eiuresources.com/mediadir/default.asp?PR=2010021001 (accessed February 16, 2010).

  435 Indeed, without immigration the populations and labor forces of most European countries will shrink. Germany, for example, now has a total fertility rate of just 1.3 and is in population decline. Western Europe has a total fertility rate of 1.6, which, combined with a growing elderly population, suggests that the European Union must admit 1.1 million immigrants per year just to maintain its current labor force. P. 129, K. B. Newbold, Six Billion Plus: World Population in the 21st Century (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2007), 245 pp.

  436 As of 2009 Russia’s total fertility rate was just 1.4 births per woman; the replacement rate is 2.1. Russia’s crude death rate was 16.2 per 1,000 people versus a crude birth rate of 10 per 1,000 people. The Economist, Pocket World in Figures (London: Profile Books, 2009), 256 pp.

  437 I. Saveliev, “The Transition from Immigration Restriction to the Importation of Labor: Recent Migration Patterns and Chinese Migrants in Russia,” Forum of International Development Studies 35 (2007): 21-35.

  438 G. Kozhevnikova, “Radical Nationalism in Russia in 2008, and Efforts to Counteract It,” Sova Center Reports and Analyses (April 15, 2009), http://xeno.sova-center.ru/.

  439 More precisely, in 2008 the United States granted 1,107,126 people legal permanent resident status, and 1,046,539 were naturalized. There were 175 million visitors, of whom 90% were short-term, e.g., tourists and business travelers, and 10% (3.7 million) were longer-term temporary residents like specialty workers, students, and nurses. Between 2005 and 2008 U.S. border apprehensions ranged from 723,840 to 1,189,031 people per year. Drawn from the following reports by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics: R. Monger, N. Rytina, “U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2008,” Annual Flow Report, March 2009; J. Lee, N. Rytina, “Naturalizations in the United States: 2008,” Annual Flow Report, March 2009; R. Monger, M. Barr, “Nonimmigrant Admissions to the United States: 2008,” Annual Flow Report, April 2009; N. Rytina, J. Simanski, “Apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol: 2005-2008,” Fact Sheet, June 2009; J. Napolitano et al., 2008 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, August 2009.

  440 Canada admitted 247,243 legal permanent residents in 2008, of whom 149,072 were in the “Economic Class” (skilled workers), 65,567 were in the “Family Class” (reunification), and 32,602 were “Refugees” or “Other” classes. “Facts and Figures 2008—Immigration Overview: Permanent and Temporary residents,” Citizenship and Immigration Canada Web site, www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2008/index.asp (accessed August 22, 2009).

  441 See pp. 121-128, K. B. Newbold, Six Billion Plus: World Population in the 21st Century (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2007), 245 pp.

  442 Through their memberships in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the Schengen Agreement, Iceland and Norway have essentially opened their labor markets to the EU.

  443 As of 2005 the percent foreign born in the United States and Germany was 12.3% and 12.5%, respectively. Canada had the most with 19.3%. Data from Table 1, J.-C. Dumont, G. Lemaître, “Counting Immigrants and Expatriates in OECD Countries: A New Perspective,” OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, no. 25 (2005), 41 pp. See http://w
ww.oecd.org/dataoecd/34/59/35043046.pdf.

  444 Unusual warm spells in winter cause snow to partly melt, then refreeze, encasing the snowpack in ice. Starvation can result for herbivores unable to break through. Rain-on-snow events are particularly deadly; in October 2003 a particularly severe rainstorm killed approximately twenty thousand musk oxen, one-fourth of the herd, in Banks Island, Canada. J. Putkonen et al., “Rain on Snow: Little Understood Killer in the North,” Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 90, no. 26 (2009): 221-222.

  445 In 2007-08 crude birth rates in Nunavut averaged 25.2 per 1,000 versus 11.1 for all of Canada and 10.6 for Ontario. Total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 2.84 children per woman versus 1.59 TFR for all of Canada. Median age was 23.1 years in Nunavut versus 39.5 years for Canada. Source: Statistics Canada, www.40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/demo04b-eng.htm and www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/84f0210x/2006000/5201672-eng.htm (accessed August 28, 2009).

  446 Personal interview with Iqaluit mayor Elisapee Sheutiapik, on the CCGS Amundsen icebreaker, August 5, 2007. For a strategic plan of Iqaluit’s deepwater port ambitions, see www.city.iqaluit.nu.ca/i18n/english/pdf/portproject.pdf.

  447 Canada is comprised of provinces and territories. There are currently three territories: the Northwest Territories (NWT), Yukon, and Nunavut. Territories are politically autonomous but less powerful than provinces, which are constitutionally enshrined.

  448 The Russian Federation recognizes almost 200 “nationalities,” of which 130 (~20 million people, or 14% of Russia’s population) are likely aboriginal. However, only 45 groups (~250,000 people) are officially recognized as such (“indigenous numerically small peoples of the north”), or about 0.2% of Russia’s total population. See B. Donahoe et al., “Size and Place in the Construction of Indigeneity in the Russian Federation,” Current Anthropology 49, no. 6 (2008): 993-1009.

  449 North American aboriginal population data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Statistics Canada. For the Nordic countries, which do not collect ethnicity data during census, estimates are from UN World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples, available at http://www.minorityrights.org/directory.

  450 As of the 2000 U.S. Census the aboriginal population of Alaska was 85,698 out of 550,043 (15.6%): U.S. Census Brief C2KBR/01-15, “The American Indian and Alaska Native Population: 2000,” February 2002, http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kbr01-15.pdf (accessed August 30, 2009). The Sámi population of Sweden averages about 11% (5,900/53,772) across Kiruna, Gällivare, Jokkmokk, and Arvidsjaur municipalities: Minority Rights Group International, World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples—Sweden: Sámi, 2008, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/49749ca35.html; in Finland about 40% (7,500/18,990) across Utsjoki, Inari, Enontekiö, and Sodankylä: Minority Rights Group International, World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples—Finland: Sámi, 2008, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/49749d2319.html; in Norway’s Finnmark County about 34% (25,000/73,000): Minority Rights Group International, World Directory of Minorities and Indigenous Peoples—Norway: Sámi, 2008, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/49749cd45.html. Denmark/Greenland and Sakha Yakut data from the Arctic Human Development Report (Akureyri: Stefansson Arctic Institute, 2004), 242 pp. But in the Russian North, aboriginals officially number only about 250,000 and thus comprise just 0.2% of the total population: Government of the Russian Federation, “Yedinyy perechen’ korennykh malochislennykh narodov Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Unified list of indigenous numerically small peoples of the Russian Federation),” Confirmed by Decree 255 of the Russian Government, March 24, 2000.

  451 American Indians and Alaska Natives, currently numbering 4.9 million, are expected to rise to 8.6 million by 2050. U.S. Census Bureau, Press Release CB08-123, “An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury,” August 14, 2008, http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/012496.html (accessed August 29, 2009). Canada’s 2006 census recorded 1,172,790 people as North American Indian (First Nations), Inuit, or Métis (mixed race), versus 976,305 in 2001 and 799,010 in 1996. Statistics Canada, Press Release, Aboriginal Peoples in Canada in 2006: Inuit, Métis and First Nations, 2006 Census, January 15, 2008, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/080115/dq080115a-eng.htm (accessed August 30, 2009).

  452 Tlingit Nation had even recorded a protest with Russia on this issue, T. Penikett, Reconciliation: First Nations Treaty Making in British Columbia (Vancouver: Douglas & McIntyre Ltd., 2006), 303 pp.

  453 For a history of the circumstances and politics leading to the landmark ANCSA bill, see W. R. Borneman, Alaska: Saga of a Bold Land (New York: HarperCollins Perennial, 2004), 608 pp.

  454 After ANCSA the U.S. federal government owned nearly 60% of the land in Alaska, the state 28%, and the regional corporations 12%. All other private lands combined totaled less than 2%.

  455 Subsurface mineral rights are retained by the regional corporations, but village corporations can obtain surface rights, e.g., water and timber. Alaska’s twelve regional corporations are Ahtna, Inc.; The Aleut Corporation; Arctic Slope Regional Corporation; Bering Straits Native Corporation; Bristol Bay Native Corporation; Calista Corporation; Chugach Alaska Corporation; Cook Inlet Region, Inc.; Doyon Ltd.; Koniag, Inc.; NANA Regional Corporation, Inc.; and Sealaska Corporation. A thirteenth, aptly called The 13th Regional Corporation, received cash only for Alaska aboriginals residing outside the state.

  456 These included political organizations by Inuit, Yukon Indians, Métis, Cree, and other groups. F. Abele, “Northern Development: Past, Present and Future,” in N. F. Abele et al., eds., Northern Exposure: Peoples, Powers and Prospects in Canada’s North (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2009), 605 pp.

  457 Support for the Mackenzie Gas Project is not yet unanimous, as the Dehcho claim isn’t done and they currently don’t support the pipeline. Also, within the NWT the Akaitcho and Northwest Territories Métis claims are not yet settled.

  458 “Imperial Says Earliest Startup Date for Mackenzie Gas Project in 2018,” Oilweek, March 15, 2010, www.oilweek.com/news.asp?ID=27306 (accessed April 4, 2010).

  459 The amount and details of resource royalty returns vary greatly between settlements. In general, ANCSA lands retain all mineral and subsurface rights on granted land, but receive no royalties from surrounding public land. Canadian land claims agreements retain only a portion of subsurface revenues from their actual owned holdings, but also receive royalties for extraction from surrounding public lands, which are also under land claims management. Thus, the geographic reach of the Canadian settlements extends across public as well as aboriginal-owned land, whereas in Alaska it does not.

  460 Parts of this discussion drawn from personal interview with land claims attorney John Donihee, Ottawa, June 3, 2009.

  461 At least twenty-two comprehensive land claims agreements have entered effect in Canada. Most recent are the Nunavik Inuit Land Claims Agreement and Tsawwassen First Nation Final Agreement Act beginning 2008 and 2009, respectively. Earlier ones are the James Bay and Northern Québec Agreement (1975), Northeastern Québec Agreement (1978), Inuvialuit Final Agreement (1984), Gwich’in Agreement (1992), Sahtu Dene and Métis Agreement (1994), Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (1995), Nisga’a Final Agreement (2000), Tlicho Agreement (2005), Labrador Inuit Land Claims Agreement (2005), Nunavik Inuit Land Claims Agreement (2008), the Council for Yukon Indians Umbrella Final Agreement (1993), and corresponding self-government agreements: Vuntut Gwich’in First Nation (1995), First Nation of Nacho Nyak Dun (1995), Teslin Tlingit Council (1995), Champagne and Aishihik First Nations (1995), Little Salmon/Carmacks First Nation (1997), Selkirk First Nation (1997), Tr’ondek Hwech’in First Nation (1998), Ta’an Kwach’an Council (2002), Kluane First Nation (2004), Kwanlin Dun First Nation (2005), Carcross/Tagish First Nation (2005). Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/al/ldc/ccl/pubs/gbn/gbn-eng.asp (accessed September 3, 2009).

  462 A final wave of LCAs will be in British Columbia, the only British colony in North America that refused t
o extinguish aboriginal title through treaties. BC tribes are now actively negotiating modern land claims treaties. T. Penikett, Reconciliation: First Nations Treaty Making in British Columbia (Vancouver: Douglas & McIntyre Ltd., 2006), 303 pp.; personal interview with former Yukon premier T. Penikett, Ottawa, June 2, 2009. Also, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada is still negotiating claims agreements with the Dehcho, Akaitcho, and Northwest Territories Métis Nation in NWT, plus two Denesuline overlaps in the southernmost NWT and southern Nunavut. Claims are also being negotiated, or are entering negotiations, in Québec, Labrador, the Maritime Provinces, and Eastern Ontario; personal communication with D. Perrin, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, November 24, 2009.

  463 Greenland’s highest elected body prior to the introduction of Home Rule in 1979 was the Landsråd, roughly translated as “Provincial Council.” J. Brøsted and H. V. Gulløv, “Recent Trends and Issues in the Political Development of Greenland,” Actes du XLII Congrés International des Américanistes, Paris (September 1976): 76-84.

  464 Home Rule was introduced on May 1, 1979. In 1982 Greenland voters passed another referendum to withdraw from the European Community. Certain areas, such as foreign affairs and justice, are still managed by Danish authorities, but the Danish government must consult Greenland on all matters relevant to it. The chief connection between the two countries today is economic, as Greenland depends on heavy subsidies from Denmark for solvency. In 2008 Greenland voters overwhelmingly passed another referendum moving Greenland toward full independence from Denmark.

  465 As noted in the preceding note, full independence for Greenland, which some speculate could be declared in 2021, the 300th anniversary of Danish colonial rule, will require weaning from generous Danish subsidies averaging $11,000 annually for every Greenlander. The most likely mechanism for this weaning is revenue from oil and gas development, which is being actively encouraged by the Greenland government. So far, thirteen exploration licenses have been issued to companies like ExxonMobil, and another round of licensing will take place in 2010. “Greenland, the New Bonanza,” in The World in 2010, special supplement to The Economist (2009): 54.