Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)

by Humphrey Hawksley

  `For too long, Comrades,' the President began, `China's enemies have exploited the oil riches contained in the waters around the Nansha [Spratly] and Xisha [Paracel] Islands. Our scientists estimate that there are 10 billion tonnes of oil beneath the surface of our great southern sea. This is Chinese oil and China's 1.3 billion people need it. China is a poor, developing country and we cannot continue to import oil at the present rate demanded by the growth in our economy.

  `Vietnam has illegally occupied the Nansha and Xisha Islands. Vietnam has ignored the consistent stand of the Chinese government and hindered our legitimate activities. The Chinese people love peace and do not hope for war. But the Vietnamese authorities are wrong in thinking that we are weak and easy to bully simply because we desire peace. This mission you embark upon this morning is a warning to President Tai to abandon once and for all his ambitions of swallowing up China's sacred territory.

  `Comrades, these are momentous times. In a short while units of our heroic air force and navy will set out on a mission no less important than any our mighty revolutionary army has faced in the past. Success in the battle will ensure a bright future for our Party, our motherland, and our people.'

  Cam Ranh Bay Naval Base, Vietnam

  Local time: 0600 Sunday 18 February 2001

  GMT: 2300 Saturday 17 February 2001

  The roar of the engines from twelve Chinese Su-27 Flanker air-defence fighters crackled through Vietnamese airspace and soon the aircraft were over the coast above the target of Cam Ranh Bay. The Flankers gave protection to twenty A-7 attack aircraft, the new generation of Chinese ground-attack aircraft developed from the Russian Su-24 Fencer. They came in low on terrain-following radar. The pilots used head-up cockpit displays which showed their instruments without the need to look down. Once over the target, the Chinese unleashed a deadly cocktail of weapons on the Vietnamese defences. The weapons of choice for this operation were cluster bombs which, on release, sowed a path with smaller bomblets that had warheads for cratering concrete, delayed-action mines, and fragmentation for damaging `light structures' such as aircraft, vehicles, and personnel caught in the open. Most people woken by the noise had no time to escape before the bombs hit. Debris fell throughout Vietnam's main naval base. The mines did further damage later and delayed clearing-up operations.

  As soon as the Fencers pulled up from the first attack, those with gun pods pulled round hard to strafe any undamaged elderly Vietnamese MiG-21 Fishbed fighter/ ground-attack aircraft lined up along the airstrip of the naval base. Lack of warning had prevented the Vietnamese from dispersing their aircraft to make them more difficult to attack. In less than five minutes, part of Vietnam's air-defence system lay in twisted wreckage. Many buildings and radars were damaged, and the control tower was temporarily out of action. But a heavier attack would be needed to complete the destruction. The Chinese pilots pulled away, climbing fast at over 1,000 kilometres an hour, their aircraft now light and manoeuvrable. A single message from the Chinese attack leader crossed the airwaves: `Dragon.' This told the next attack wave that the defences had been suppressed.

  Immediately, there was a different kind of engine roar, the drone of twenty-four Chinese H-6 bombers pies of the Soviet Tu-16 Badger. The 2,000 kilometre radius of action with a bomb load of 5,000 kilograms was enough for the flight from Haikou airbase on southern Hainan Island. From the ground, the bomber group might have appeared unmanoeuvrable and vulnerable. They may have been subsonic but they were well protected. Pilots from twelve Shenyang J-8II Chinese-designed delta-winged interceptors guarded them. Their Russian Zhuk radar system could simultaneously track ten enemy aircraft and guide anti-aircraft missiles. They had extended their range to that of the bombers with air refuelling and ferry tanks, now jettisoned ready for combat. The tankers orbited 500 kilometres away to enable them to reach home after the attack.

  The first air-to-air combat of the Dragonstrike war lasted less than thirty seconds. A J-8 pilot locked on to two elderly Vietnamese MiG-21 Fishbed fighters returning from a routine dawn patrol, and launched two missiles. The missile warning systems on the Fishbeds were old. They probably never knew what was coming towards them when the first aircraft was hit. The second aircraft was lucky at first because its missile's homer was confused by the two aircraft in formation and it passed between them. Unfortunately the formation was too close and the first aircraft, out of control, crashed into his number two and both exploded. There was only a small fireball because they were very low on fuel.

  It was 0610.

  The bombers approached the naval base in formations of three. They were met in the first instance by light anti-aircraft fire from two positions which had escaped the Fencer strike. Two of the escort J-8s silenced them with gunfire in short bursts. Figures running across the base, lit up by the fires, half dressed and just woken, fought back ineffectively with small-arms fire which always passed behind the targets. They were engulfed in the inferno when the bomb struck seconds later. Most died. The Chinese pilots had been given precise orders. The first H-6s finished off the work of the Fencers by turning the aircraft and their parking areas into a flaming mass of churned-up concrete and contorted metal using more cluster bombs. Aircraft fuel tanks exploded. Flames caught in the undergrowth of the dry, flat grassland around the base. The second group destroyed the command centre using conventional single-warhead bombs with radar airburst fuses to increase the area of damage on structures such as buildings. The third hit the fuel and ammunition dump with a mixture of cluster and airburst weapons. The flames caught the poor quality housing, weakened by the shock waves from the airbursts. The domestic gas pipelines were not deeply buried and they burnt, adding to the inferno. It was a catastrophe which would never have happened in a NATO military base. Cam Ranh Bay had been built by the Americans, but taken over by the Soviet Union in 1979. Survivability for a determined surprise attack had not been an issue.

  Even before the H-6 bombers had finished their task, another squadron of Fencers approached the base. Each carried four C-802 anti-ship missiles. Within minutes the waters in the harbour of Cam Ranh Bay were ablaze, although some missile homers were confused in the congested space and took their warheads to unexpected targets. If anything, this increased the chaos. Again, the message received from the air commander was simply `Dragon'.

  800 kilometres north, the Chinese pilots found success more elusive. Thick cloud hung over the main Vietnamese airbase at Da Nang. The twelve Su-27s, twelve Fencers, and twelve PLA Navy Jang Hong 7 fighter-bombers made their approach for the attack at 0620. There had been a crucial ten-minute delay. The slower JH-7s held up the group.

  The PLA Air Force had never wanted the navy along. The air force had long ago rejected the JH-7's outdated airframe, avionics, and Rolls Royce Spey engines which left it underpowered by modern standards. But the Military Commission insisted on a joint operation. Politics won over practicality and the animosity continued into the cockpits. The weather was appalling. Visibility was bad and there was risk of flying into the ground. The JH-7 group commander misread his terrain-following radar and climbed too high. The aircraft were picked up minutes before the Su-27s electronically jammed the Vietnamese radar. It was enough time for fifteen Vietnamese aircraft to become airborne.

  The Vietnamese MiGs should have been no match for the faster and more versatile Su-27s, whose avionics and attack capabilities were greatly superior. But the Vietnamese pilots were more familiar with their old aircraft, and better trained in realistic combat tactics. Vietnam gave its pilots at least 16 flying hours a month. It was less than half of America's C-1 (fully combat ready) 33 hours a month, but twice the training given to the Chinese. The first Chinese casualties were two of the less manoeuvrable JH-7s, and before the sleeker Su-27s became orientated one was hit by a Vietnamese air-to-air missile. Another JH-7 was downed by an SA-6 missile fired from the ground.

  Then the Vietnamese pilots turned west. Over the next thirty minutes, the scramble alarm was sounded from north to s
outh throughout the narrow strip of country which is Vietnam. Pilots took to the skies from their bases, and flew their aircraft out of Vietnam into the two countries they had used as traditional sanctuaries from combat — Laos and Cambodia. In wars against its more powerful twentieth-century enemies, the French, the Americans and the Chinese, Vietnam concealed its combat forces and saved them to fight at a place and time of its choosing. The enemy won some of the battles: Vietnam won the wars. The Chinese pilots badly damaged Da Nang airbase, but when the military successes were recounted in the People's Daily, the number of Vietnamese aircraft destroyed was not mentioned, nor were the Chinese losses. By the time the Vietnamese pilots had touched down in Cambodia and Laos, the first news of the attack had reached the White House.

  It was 0645.

  The Paracel Islands, South China Sea

  Local time: 0700 Sunday 18 February 2001

  GMT: 2300 Saturday 17 February 2001

  From the Russian-built M-17 troop transport helicopter, Discovery Reef in the Paracel Island group looked like two large horseshoes placed end to end. In the shallow waters in the middle was Discovery 1, a 160 man oil well undergoing tests and due to begin production in April. The thirty men working there first heard the throb of the rotor blades, then watched the chopper's nose dip as it swooped down towards them. In the distance, in the medium swell of the South China Sea, six fibreglass raiding craft powered by twin 150 horsepower engines sped away from the Yukan class tank-landing ship 927. Each craft carried ten men towards the rugged terrain. The helicopter hovered menacingly. Warning shots were fired into the water. The boats slowed from 40 knots. The Chinese Marine commandos came ashore among the inhospitable rock faces and reefs and took up positions. With them was a unit from the PLA's special film unit, which had recorded Chinese military history since the Revolution. This morning China heralded its total control of the islands and rugged atolls which were an inseparable part of its sovereign rights.

  The commandos were under orders to minimize bloodshed. Discovery 1 was an Anglo-Japanese joint venture involving a subsidiary of British Petroleum and Nippon Oil. Once the water-borne Marines had secured the ground, the helicopter landed on the rig's helipad with another twenty troops. A burst of small-arms fire into the air convinced the maintenance crew that spanners and wrenches were no match for automatic weapons. The communications officer had enough time to broadcast an alert before a Marine stopped him at gunpoint and changed the frequency. The chopper left. All but two of the raiding craft were returned to the supply ship. The PLA film unit covered the raising of the flag. The commandos sang the national anthem. Then both attackers and captives stayed silent as they were addressed by President Wang Feng through the PA system which the Marine signals corporal had rigged up through the radio.

  `Like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and Tibet, the territory you have recovered today is an inalienable part of our motherland. In recent years there has been a situation of the islands and islets being occupied, sea areas being carved up, resources looted, and marine rights and interests being wantonly encroached upon. But we gave serious attention to the strengthening of our naval and air force construction. And today we proclaim victory. You should all be proud of what you have achieved, not only for your success today, but also for the direct bearing it will have on our country's thousand year cause, and on our descendants for all generations to come.'

  That was the last action China had to take to secure the whole of the Paracel Island group and was the easiest task assigned to the Marine units. In the Spratly Island group, 800 kilometres to the south, the offensive would not go so well.

  The Spratly Islands, South China Sea

  Local time: 0700 Sunday 18 February 2001

  GMT: 2300 Saturday 17 February 2001

  China had never carried out an air and naval operation of this magnitude before. The area to be seized and held covered 340,000 square kilometres. The targets were twenty-one islands and atolls, fifty submerged land spits, and twenty-eight reefs, most of which were underwater. These rugged and inhospitable places were of use as strategic footholds and as a source of oil and mineral wealth. Only soldiers lived there, with their national flags. Most of the camps were erected on stilts, high enough to avoid the waves which swept over the rocky landfalls and the tides which immersed the bases in water. The Spratly Islands were nightmare postings.

  The northern and easternmost reefs were claimed by the Philippines. The southernmost islands were occupied by Malaysian troops. One, Terumbi Layang-layang, had an airstrip and a naval base. To the west were Vietnamese forces.

  China's only outpost of any substance was Fiery Cross Shoal. It was 26 kilometres long and 7.5 kilometres wide. In 1988, Chinese engineers blasted the coral with explosives to allow warships through the reef. They built a wharf, roads, a helicopter hangar and landing pad, and a two-storey barracks covering 1,000 square metres. The upkeep had been shoddy. The sanitation and water supplies were broken down. The Marines, who had been living there cheek by jowl, cheered when they heard their orders. They wanted to be anywhere but Fiery Shoal.

  The first Chinese Z-8 Super Frelon helicopter took off at 0620 with ten Marines on board. Soon eight were in the air heading towards a cluster of Vietnamese-held reefs 70 kilometres to the east. Seven Su-27 Flankers joined them for air support from their base at Lingshui on Hainan Island. They were refuelled 120 kilometres out from three Chinese Il-76 tankers, converted from transport aircraft. Each aircraft could run out three fuel pipes with refuelling drogues on the end, one from each wing and one from the under-fuselage.

  The Su-27s were able to stay above the conflict area for at least thirty minutes, and complete the 1,500 kilometre round trip using tanker support. Months earlier, there had been fractious disagreement among the Communist Party leadership as to whether the PLA could launch Operation Dragonstrike without an aircraft carrier to project power throughout the South China Sea. One document leaked from the Central Military Commission argued that 40 aircraft on board a carrier could achieve the combat effectiveness of 200 to 800 land-based fighters. But to obtain, equip, and train crews for carrier operations takes years. Disagreements about the timing of carrier capability ranged from as late as 2015 to as soon as 2005, which would be a Harrier jump-jet operation. But the political leadership in the Communist Party said that even that might be too late. `By then,' said the document, `American hegemony would have taken over our coastal cities as the European powers did in the nineteenth century. The Americans would attempt to split China through whatever means and the motherland would be dismembered again.'

  In the mid-nineties the Chinese air force carried out a number of in-flight refuelling tests. They negotiated with Israel for technology, but the deal never went ahead because of pressure on Israel from Washington. Western intelligence believed the Dragonstrike refuelling technology had been bought from the Pakistanis, and the refuelling drogue units made in China. The probes to take the fuel were simply bolted into the refuelling pipes of the fighters and helicopters and the valve nozzles copied from the standard NATO type. It worked, and gave potentially unlimited extra range and flexibility, although the clumsy tankers were vulnerable unless well protected.

  The seven Su-27s headed for Vanguard Bank, at the south of the Spratly group and occupied by Vietnamese forces. Because of thick cloud and poor visibility, the pilots at first failed to identify the correct islands. They flew over them once before realizing they had gone too far, giving the Vietnamese a first advantage. Three SA-6 missiles were fired from the ground, but the Chinese pilots dropped clouds of chaff-like metal strips and turned sharply at maximum G. The force generated by this manoeuvre pushed their bodies deep into their cockpits despite their anti-G suits, which squeezed their legs and abdomen in an attempt to prevent the blood pooling in the legs and draining the brain of life-giving oxygen. The SAMs missed. Then four Vietnamese MiG-21 Fishbed fighters entered the conflict from their base in Ho Chi Minh City, destroying two of the Su-27s with air-to-air missiles
while they were distracted in trying to evade the SAMs. The surviving Chinese aircraft separated, and with their superior manoeuvrability found two of the Fishbeds. The two Vietnamese pilots dived to 120 metres and pulled up, each with an enemy plane locked on. One Fishbed exploded on the impact of a missile. The second started to lose a wing. The pilot ejected. The plane spiralled into the sea. Then an Su-27 pilot, distracted by the explosion of the Vietnamese plane, was killed in a direct hit on the cockpit by another SA-6.

  Down at surface level, the twin 100mm gun on the bow of China's Luhu class destroyer Haribing opened up on the Vietnamese positions. The destroyer was also equipped with French surface-to-surface missiles, Italian torpedoes, and American engines. It was a example of the mixture of systems in China's armed forces, causing problems in training, resupply, and maintenance. For four minutes the 15 kilogram shells pounded the reef while the dogfight continued above it. Then a Vietnamese Shershen class fast attack craft joined the battle, heading towards the Haribing at 45 knots. The Principal Warfare Officer in the combat room first gave the command for a surface-to-air missile to be launched. It destroyed another Su-27. Five seconds later, he fired two 533mm torpedoes at the Haribing. One passed in front of the bow. The second hit. As the Vietnamese warship sped away, the Haribing fired a surface-to-surface missile. A Zhi-9a Haitun helicopter also managed to take off, and caught up with the Vietnamese. Then suddenly it was enveloped in a rain squall, lost visual contact, and had to concentrate on not ditching into the sea. The SSM veered off course, allowing the Vietnamese to escape.

  The damage to the Haribing was not critical. The gun was still in action, although the mortar, used for anti-submarine warfare, was unworkable. Another seven Su-27s had now come in from Hainan. The dogfight was over. The eight transport helicopters from Fiery Cross Shoal were clear to land the troops. They came in under fire, but the Vietnamese had already taken heavy casualties. Their resistance had weakened. Chinese troops took only 23 prisoners. They found 106 bodies. The Chinese flag was placed on Vanguard Bank at 0645. Within the hour it had been raised on other Vietnamese outposts nearby.