Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)

by Humphrey Hawksley

  Briefing

  Vietnam's claim to areas of the South China Sea

  `In the face of the extremely serious situation in the Truong Sa archipelago area, since December last year Vietnam has three times proposed to the Chinese side to open talks for the settlement of differences concerning the Truong Sa archipelago and other disputes over the common border and the Hoang Sa archipelago. (Notes respectively dated 17th December and 23rd December.) At the same time it proposed that pending the settlement of disputes by means of negotiations "the two sides should refrain from the use of force to settle disputes and avoid any clashes that may aggravate the situation.' (Note dated 26th December.)

  `The Chinese authorities slanderously labelled the Vietnamese proposals "hypocritical" in order to reject negotiations with Vietnam and have not responded to Vietnam's proposal that the two sides undertake not to use force to settle disputes. All this shows that China continues implementing a policy of hostility against Vietnam, and continues its acts of usurpation in the Truong Sa archipelago. In the face of China's policy of reliance on the use of force, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Vietnam is determined to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Chinese actions in the Hoang Sa archipelago previously, and in the Truong Sa archipelago at present, in fact are nothing more than part of China's expansionist and hegemonist policy towards Vietnam and South-East Asia.

  `These two archipelagos lie 800 kilometres from each other. They consist of a large number of islands and coral reefs and shoals. The total emerging area of each archipelago is about 10 square kilometres. The value of both archipelagos lies in their strategic position in the Bien Dong Sea and their great riches of oil and natural gas. Vietnam's case is that it has maintained effective occupation of the two archipelagos at least since the seventeenth century, when they were not under the sovereignty of any country, and the Vietnamese state has exercised effectively, continuously, and peacefully its sovereignty over the two archipelagos until the time when they were invaded by the Chinese armed forces.

  `Relations between Vietnam and China have not developed as well as the Vietnamese people hoped. Along with the escalation of provocative acts and land-grabbing operations along the land border, in January 1974 Peking used a military force to attack and occupy the remaining western group of islands of the Hoang Sa archipelago. With the war by proxy of the genocidal Pol Pot clique in south-western Vietnam, the war of 1979 involving 600,000 Chinese troops in the northern border regions of Vietnam, and now this disgraceful attack, Peking has brought Sino-Vietnamese relations to their worst. The realities of the last twenty years and more have clearly shown that China has turned the tables, switching friends and foes and brazenly carrying out an anti-Vietnam policy.

  `Throughout the past thousands of years, China had never exercised sovereignty over these two archipelagos. What China did, though, was by the gradual use of military force between 1956 and 1999 occupy the Hoang Sa archipelago. And what she has been doing since the end of last year is to begin threatening the occupation a number of rocks and reefs in Vietnam's Truong Sa, again by use of military force. Thus, China is translating into action the 30th July 1997 declaration made by former Chinese Foreign Minister Geng Wuhua: "The Chinese territory spreads down to the James Shoals near Sarawak (Malaysia) ... You can carry out exploitation as you wish. When the time comes, however, we will retrieve those islands. There will be no need then to negotiate at all, these islands having since long ago belonged to China."

  `Chinese claims to sovereignty over the islands are nonsense. Peking has cited the astronomical surveys by the Yuan Dynasty (thirteenth century) in Nanhai to conclude that the Xisha archipelago lay within Chinese territory under the Yuan. Nevertheless, it is written in the official history of the Yuan Dynasty itself that the Chinese domain under the Yuan Dynasty extended only to Hainan Island in the south and not beyond the Gobi Desert in the north, that is to say, it did not include the islands which China calls Xisha today. China has cited a patrol cruise by Vice-Admiral Wu Sheng in the years 1710 to 1712 or so during the Qing Dynasty alleging that Vice-Admiral Wu himself set out from Qiongya, proceeding to Tonggu, Qizhouyang, and Sigengsha, making a 5,000 kilometre tour of inspection. On this basis, China asserts that Qizhouyang is the present-day Xisha archipelago area which was then patrolled by naval units of Guangdong Province. Qiongya, Tonggu, and Sigengsha are names of localities on the coast of Hainan Island, while Qizhouyang is a maritime zone lying between the north-eastern coast of Hainan Island and the group of seven islets situated to the north-east of Hainan. So that was just an inspection tour around Hainan Island. Peking's conclusions are obviously contrary to historical and geographical facts.

  `Besides, if maritime patrol and inspection tours are presented as an argument proving Chinese sovereignty over the two archipelagos, one may wonder whether China is going to claim sovereignty over such territories in relation to which Zheng He under the Ming Dynasty seven times (between 1405 and 1430) dispatched a large naval fleet with more than 60 gunships and 28,000 men to impose Chinese hegemony on territories within the Indian Ocean zone and undertake territorial exploration in the Red Sea zone and along the coast of eastern Africa.

  `Comparing the respective cases of Vietnam and China, one can see that China has never administered the Hoang Sa and Truong Sa archipelagos and it is all the more impossible to say that China has exercised effectively, continuously, and peacefully her "sovereignty" over these islands. The claim of Chinese sovereignty is one that China has not up to now been able to prove. The state of Vietnam has effectively occupied the two archipelagos of Hoang Sa and Truong Sa since at least the seventeenth century and has effectively, continuously, and peacefully exercised its sovereignty ever since. From the seventeenth to the nineteenth century, Chinese dynasties had never protested but implicitly recognized Vietnamese jurisdiction over the archipelagos.

  `Our jurisdiction over the islands is recognized by many leading countries, including France. One the basis of equality and mutual respect the government of Vietnam has asked France to send a detachment of troops to help with the assessment of damage that the Chinese have inflicted upon our military forces. We confidently expect a positive response from France. `The developments up to the present day point to all the dangers inherent in China's policy of reliance on the use of force. A peaceful settlement of the dispute over the archipelagos of Truong Sa and Hoang Sa would respond to the desire for peace of the peoples of Vietnam and China, in conformity with the principles of international law and the UN Charter, with the interest of peace, stability, and cooperation in South-East Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, and the whole world. This is the most correct way. Public opinion in South-East Asia and in the whole world is looking forward to China's positive response. Being one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, China has a major obligation to abide by the UN Charter.'

  The State Department, Washington, DC

  Local time: 2000 Saturday 17 February 2001

  GMT: 0100 Sunday 18 February 2001

  The first statement from the United States came from the State Department spokesman, Donald Bryant, who called a news conference for correspondents accredited to the department.

  BRYANT: As you know, we are still trying to ascertain exactly what is happening in Vietnam and the South China Sea. The President, the Secretary of State, the National Security Adviser, the Defense Secretary, and the Joint Chiefs have been briefed.

  The President has been meeting with the Secretary of State and the National Security Adviser at the White House for the past half an hour. The President has issued the following statement: `The American government is disturbed by the outbreak of violence in the South China Sea. Our first reports indicate that there have been substantial casualties, particularly among Vietnamese civilians. We are shocked by the bloodshed. This is a part of the world which had been an example to us all of how to make trade and the creation of wealth a priority above all else. We urge both Vietnam and China to stop their hosti
lities. America will do everything in its power to end this dispute. We are still trying to ascertain the casualties among American citizens. You will be kept informed of any developments.'

  Any follow-ups?

  QUESTION: Have you any more on American casualties?

  BRYANT: We believe some Americans may have been hurt in the bombing of Cam Ranh Bay. Civilian areas were hit hard there. There are several hundred Americans on the oil rigs in the South China Sea. We don't know what's going on there at the moment. The Chinese have claimed sovereignty over the Crescent Group in the Paracels. They've announced it on their state radio. That's all we've got so far. Sarah.

  QUESTION: You say civilian areas were hit hard at Cam Ranh Bay. Do you mean Vietnamese civilian areas in the town, or the quarters for Western workers there? And if so, are they strictly civilian? Aren't they helping the Vietnamese military?

  BRYANT: Correct. I'm referring to the foreign quarters. But when you get to bombing homes with children in them, I think we're talking civilian.

  QUESTION: Would you consider American oil workers out there on territory captured by the Chinese as being hostages or prisoners?

  BRYANT: They are in captivity. We want them freed.

  QUESTION: What are our embassies saying in Beijing and Hanoi?

  BRYANT: The Assistant Secretary, Bostock, has spoken personally to each of our Ambassadors there.

  QUESTION: So what are you saying: they don't know anything?

  BRYANT: Our Ambassador to Hanoi is expected to meet with President Tai in a few hours' time. Our Ambassador to Beijing has not been told whether he'll be able to meet with a senior Chinese leader.

  QUESTION: Why don't you condemn this definitely as an act of Chinese aggression?

  BRYANT: I don't want to get drawn down a road of inflammatory language. China carried out air strikes on Vietnam. As the President said, there have been casualties. He also emphasized that we are friends of both countries.

  QUESTION: What actions do you see Vietnam contemplating which would add to the tension?

  BRYANT: Well, Barry, I'm not going to speculate about, you know, what we may be anticipating the authorities in Vietnam to do. I mean, one can imagine quite easily all kinds of things which would provoke the Chinese.

  QUESTION: I'm trying to understand why you've chosen to volunteer an admonition to both sides.

  BRYANT: We've been….We’ve been-

  QUESTION: The Chinese are the people who are on the move. The Vietnamese are standing there, shaken a bit and wondering if anybody will help them, and you're telling them: `Don't be provocative.'

  BRYANT: Just----John? You got a question?

  QUESTION: Where do we go from here? Is this one for the UN or for the Marines?

  BRYANT: I don't want to second guess what the President and his advisers are discussing. I'll be here most of the night. I'll let you know if we've anything else to say.

  Downing Street, London

  Local time: 0155 Sunday 18 February 2001

  Prime Minister Stephenson read the latest reports from Northwood Permanent Joint Operations Headquarters while waiting for the end of the State Department briefing, then he spoke to the President. The two men agreed that Europe and the United States must show neutrality at this stage. President Bradlay pointed out that America had a security treaty with Japan dating back to 1960. It also had commitments to the Philippines. If China interfered with shipping, particularly oil supplies through the South China Sea, then America would have to send a military signal to Beijing. Carrier groups in the region were on standby.

  Shortly after midnight, the British Ambassador to Paris reported that between twenty and thirty French technicians and their families had been killed in the bombing of Cam Ranh Bay. French children were among the dead. The first television pictures would be aired within the hour. France was preparing a statement condemning China. Wentworth, the Foreign Secretary, remarked that France had only taken over the presidency of the European Union in January. There was a danger of it going public against China without consulting its fellow members.

  In a telephone conversation Stephenson asked the French President, M. Dargaud, if France could ensure the neutral leadership of the European Union.

  The President replied in English: `Prime Minister, French civilians have been killed by Chinese bombs. French people know this. Do you expect me to parrot the American President and say we are friendly with both countries?

  No. No. No. My statement is for France, not for Europe. It is for the families of those who were bombed.'

  Stephenson repeated his request: `Could France stay neutral at least until there has been a vote in the UN?'

  But Dargaud was emphatic: `What can I do? As soon as those pictures are shown, Prime Minister, I have to support Vietnam. Anything else would be political suicide. And you would do the same.'

  `In which case, Mr President, can you make it clear you are speaking for France and not the Union,' finished the Prime Minister.

  Wentworth, on another line, was speaking directly to the Ambassador in Germany. The Chancellor was about to issue a statement urging restraint and caution. His tone was to highlight the trade which would be lost if the crisis escalated. `Can Germany keep the French in line?' asked the Foreign Secretary.

  `Germany will keep its mouth shut when it comes to French citizens being killed in an act of war,' replied the Ambassador.

  The Prime Minister's residence, Tokyo

  Local time: 1100 Sunday 18 February 2001

  GMT: 0200 Sunday 18 February 2001

  The meeting room in the Prime Minister's residence was Spartan in appearance. An oblong beech wood table surrounded by armchairs dominated the room. At the head of the table sat Noburo Hyashi, the Prime Minister. On his right sat Yoichi Kimura, the Foreign Minister, and on the Prime Minister's left sat Yasuhiro Ishihara, the Minister of Defence. The three, together with Takeshi Naito (Trade) and Shigeto Wada (Finance), comprised the Defence Committee of Japan's cabinet. Only one official was present and he was General Shigehiko Ogawa, Director, Defence Intelligence Headquarters.

  Hyashi was a formal man. He opened the meeting by thanking the ministers for coming at such short notice, then asked General Ogawa to brief the committee on the latest developments in the South China Sea.

  `As you all know, China has taken control of the South China Sea,' General Ogawa said. `In the process it has also set out to destroy Vietnam's capacity to retaliate. Our estimates are that the Chinese first strike against Cam Ranh Bay has resulted in the destruction or disablement of 40 per cent of Vietnam's navy.'

  `Isn't that the same ratio as what we achieved in the attack on Pearl Harbor?' Hyashi interjected.

  `For the navy, yes,' the General replied. `But attacks on the main air force bases were less successful. The Vietnamese saved their aircraft by flying them to Laos and Cambodia. However, the Chinese have the ability to deliver a second strike and we expect them to launch it against the navy within the next twenty-four hours. The Vietnamese do as well. Reliable sources in Vietnam report that the remaining seaworthy elements of the navy are at sea or are putting to sea.'

  `General, what do you expect next of the Chinese?' asked Hyashi.

  `We expect them to secure their hold over the oil-production facilities,' he replied. `There is one new facility in the Paracel Islands that has not yet reached full commercial production and three fully operational facilities in the Spratly Islands. There is a possibility that they will blockade access to the South China Sea for a period to validate their claim to the sea.'

  `Thank you, General, you may be excused,' the Prime Minister said. `Naito-san, what is the assessment of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry?'

  `Profound concern, Hyashi-san,' his Trade Minister said. `My telephone has not stopped ringing all morning, the Chairman of the Keidanren said industry expects a firm response. I couldn't get Tanaka from Nippon Oil off the telephone. His company is a big investor in the Paracel oil production facility. />
  `As you know we import 99.6 per cent of our petroleum products. Nearly 80 per cent of our crude oil imports comes from the Middle East l traverse the South China Sea. We import oil from Brunei, Indonesia, and Australia. It all passes through the South China Sea, although Australian crude (which is a light crude good for making only gasoline) can be diverted. I am informed that our strategic stockpile will meet all our needs — gasoline and petrochemical — for two to three months. A similar situation obtains for liquefied natural gas or LNG. We import all our considerable LNG needs me 60,000,000,000 cubic metres d 90 per cent of those imports traverse the South China Sea. I highlight energy because that goes to the heart of our national survival. But Japan is nothing if it cannot trade.'

  `Wada-san, what does the Finance Ministry have to say?' the Prime Minister asked. `We think there will be considerable instability in financial markets when they open for trading tomorrow morning,' Wada said. `The Bank of Japan will be prepared to step into foreign exchange markets to stabilize the yen against the dollar. Officials will be in touch with the Bundesbank, the Bank of England, and the US Fed, if they are not already, to talk about a coordinated response to this conflict. In closing, my officials expect a quite large fall in the stock market. The oil market will be unsettled, but there is little we can do about that.'

  `Thank you. Ishihara-san, what is the state of our military preparedness?'

  `Hyashi-san, we have been monitoring this situation closely and especially since relations between China and Vietnam deteriorated at the end of last year,' Ishihara began. `We currently have a battle group on manoeuvres in the waters around Okinawa. We also have two submarines in the area, but, for operational reasons, I would rather leave that vague. We are in constant contact with the Americans. They have a number of naval deployments in the region. The USS Harry S. Truman is currently in the Sea of Japan, and the USS Nimitz battle group is in the Sulu Sea. The British also have a Commonwealth naval group performing exercises with the Ark Royal off Brunei. Since the Chinese attack began we have had long-range AWACS in the air from our bases in Okinawa. From these we have a detailed picture of the deployment of Chinese forces.'