Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)

by Humphrey Hawksley

  `If we continue to chase blindly the dollar ideology,' concluded the then President, Jiang Zemin, `we will become no better than the corrupt governments of the nineteenthcentury. We will be beholden to foreign trading companies and bullied by imperialist powers. Never again will the motherland exchange her freedom for wealth.'

  The ravaging effects of the policy were kept away from public scrutiny. The suffering, the starvation, the riots, the mutinies, the summary executions, the hoarding of grain, were confined as much as possible to the remote areas, where access was difficult and the Communist Party could use force without repercussions. Money which should have gone towards irrigation had been spent on submarine training. A road was forfeited for thermal-imagery research. A province was short of medical supplies because the money was needed for aviation fuel.

  China may end up with nothing except the divisions of its own pride, shared between warlords, Jamie Song jotted in his diary. On the way to meet the Central Committee in Zhongnanhai, he read cuttings from the Western press to remind him of the fragmentation within modern China.

  Washington Post -- Dingxi, north-west China

  Monday 23 October 2000

  For hundreds of kilometres, the arid brown wastelands stretched in an inhospitable vista of hills and sky. Occasionally, there were clusters of peasants. Their grubby but colourful red or blue scarves stood out against the back-drop of the barren environment. The fields had been carved out of the hillsides by hand and sloped down the hills in terraces. The earth crumbled under the plough. Sometimes when rain fell it was too much. The land was parched and unprepared for moisture and the crops were washed away. But on most days the sky was cloudless. The sun drew up all life and the crops slowly died. For years the peasants had kept ploughing. Their faith lay in the motherland, the Chinese Communist Party, and its founding father Mao Zedong. Mao had made them the heroes of his Chinese revolution, and here, 3,000 kilometres away from Beijing, they believed it.

  That was until just outside the small town of Dingxi a wiry, ill-fed horse collapsed while ploughing and died. The farmer walked to the town and asked for help to remove the carcass. He also needed another horse. He walked back to his farm and waited. A week later, the carcass was rotting on his only field. The corn crop was being destroyed. No official from the government had visited. The farmer returned to Dingxi. Outside the city hall was a banner of bright red Chinese characters, praising Chinese Socialism and Spiritual Civilization. The official who met the farmer didn't even offer him tea. Instead, the farmer was told that he was out of touch with developments in China. The official was from Beijing and in his late twenties. Although only a few years younger than the farmer, with his smooth features, fast way of speaking, and fashionable suit he was a generation apart. He explained to the farmer that there would be no new horse from the government. In modern China, everyone had to look after themselves. Only the fittest survived. Some people suffered, yes, but it was the only way to make China rich so that it could stand up to Western hegemony.

  The farmer had heard of the changes. He could now sell his crop to whomever he wished. But he had never been told that the Party would not provide if he was in trouble. The farmer asked if the government would help him change his crop from corn to sorghum. He had heard that sorghum needed less water so he might be able to plough the field by hand. But he needed to be told how. He would even try soya beans to harvest as an oil crop, because that would need only three-quarters of the water he needed now. But the official didn't know what the farmer was talking about. `You can do what you like, but we can no longer subsidize you.'

  On leaving the city hall, the farmer did an extraordinary thing. He acted not because of the loss of his horse, or even the prospect of having a spoiled crop that year. All those things were acceptable. They had been the fate of the peasant for centuries in China. And the peasant had always overcome the challenge to make the country great. He acted because the teachings of Mao Zedong were being betrayed. As he walked down the steps, he saw three government officials, laughing, like powerful men do when they are together. They got into a large black car and drove away so fast that a woman, carrying a baby on her back, lost her balance and fell over. The car didn't stop, but many of the hawkers left their stalls to help the woman. The farmer, who became quite famous after that day, remembered a passage from Mao Zedong's writings. Several hundred million peasants will rise like a mighty storm, like a hurricane, a force so swift and violent that no power, however great, will be able to hold it back. They will smash all the trammels that bind them and rush forward along the road to liberation. They will sweep all the imperialists, warlords, corrupt officials, local tyrants, and evil gentry to their graves.

  As the car sped away the woman was helped to her feet, and the farmer let out a furious cry. He tore down the banner which stretched across the entrance of the municipal compound. He spread it on the ground and spat on it. Taken aback by his own audacity, he stood bewildered. But soon more and more people were showing their support for him. Some spat. Others trod. Some emptied jars of tea they were carrying over the cloth. Then three young men arrived on motorbikes. They picked up the now soiled and grubby banner, doused one end with diesel, and set it alight. A crowd gathered and watched. It didn't cheer. As the embers broke off and were blown away in the wind, the young men handed out leaflets.

  They were written by the New Communist Party of China. They asked people to tick which category they believed they belonged to: the bourgeoisie; the semi-proletariat of peasants, craftsmen, hawkers, and shop assistants; the proletariat of farmers and unskilled labourers; and the lumpenproletariat or e´le´ments de´classe´s, the group which Mao Zedong had believed was one of the greatest problems faced by China: peasants who have lost their land, handicraftsmen who have lost all opportunity of employment as a result of oppression and exploitation . . . they lead the most precarious existence of any human being.

  In Mao's time there had been twenty million. Today there were two hundred million. The farmer had just become one of them. That night, he didn't walk back to his house. After the burning of the banner, he found new friends who took him to a cafe and bought him beer. He explained the problem about his horse. He listened to the problems of others. Clearly, great injustices were being carried out throughout China. Later, about a hundred people returned to the municipal compound. They hurled rocks and smashed the windows. Then they broke in and ransacked the offices. They were about to set it alight when the People's Armed Police opened fire. Ten people were injured. Five died. The farmer was arrested and sentenced to fifteen years' hard labour. The young men who had given out the leaflets had left Dingxi long ago. They have secret organizations in many places, wrote Mao.

  Exchange Square, Hong Kong

  Local time: 1030 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  GMT: 0230 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  Damian Phillips, Chairman of First China Securities, was preparing the first of what would become regular reports for General Zhao. The result of trading on the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) in London had been beyond his wildest expectations. The beauty of the IPE was that unlike the New York Mercantile Exchange there were no limits. Also, unlike the Americans, London asked no questions about the nationality of the investor; in New York the authorities want to know the identity of anyone who buys more than 20,000 oil futures contracts on the New York exchange. So on the eve of the war the previous Friday, First China had cornered 20 per cent of the futures market. The IPE's only concern was that First China topped up its margin every so often, which it did courtesy of the bottomless pockets of General Zhao and Multitechnologies. In his report to Zhao, which would be flown to Beijing by special air force jet, Phillips gave a precise accounting of profits to date. The $400 million from the first day of oil trading had been placed on the New York money market. That market was big, liquid, and anonymous. With the `flight to quality' that also happened it was an astute investment decision. None of the currency gains had yet been booked. The f
urther the yen fell the better their position looked. Book profits on Monday of $181.95 million had grown to $261.6 million. He warned the General, however, of the need to act quickly if there was a major change in currency direction and requested approval to act at will if he saw an opportunity.

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing

  Local time: 1100 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  GMT: 0300 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  Jamie Song drove through the gates of Zhongnanhai. The driver was his own, but the bodyguard who had been assigned to him two weeks earlier was seconded from the Central Guards Regiment. His assignment was to protect the Foreign Minister's life and report back on his activities. Being spied upon was one of the burdens of high office in the Communist Party.

  A soldier escorted the minister and bodyguard up the stairs past portraits of former Chinese leaders. The President of China was waiting for him in a suite of offices at the south end of the building, with him were the four other members of the Politburo Standing Committee. Song was not a member, but as the only Chinese minister who could talk like an American the leadership both needed him and mistrusted him. Song had been summoned to address the Standing Committee only on the issue of the United States. Clearly, the meeting had been going on for some time. After Song took his seat, President Wang made no immediate mention of Dragonstrike.

  `Our northern comrades are short of food, water, and oil. There is malnutrition. There are diseases which have never afflicted our people so widely before. Peasants who come from the womb of our Party are disillusioned. They are rebelling against us. They are organized. They have created their own institutions and they call themselves the New Communists. Our duty is to repair the bond between people and party. But look at us. The barbarian winds of Central Asia are sweeping across our deserts where nothing grows. Our oilfields are barren. Our harvests inadequate. If the Communist Party fails to feed, house, and guide our 1.3 billion people the Party itself will be destroyed. And without the Party there will be no motherland. We will once again be invaded by Western traders. Our rulers will be Boeing, Motorola, Toyota.

  `Comrades, in unity is strength; in division there is only defeat and chaos.'

  President Wang paused, then addressed Jamie Song directly.

  `Foreign Minister, earlier this morning you made another live broadcast. Our embassies report that your first one was a success while our Ambassador to Paris was made to look like a fool by Tai. We have concluded that it's better to fight this propaganda campaign here in Beijing while liaising with our consultants in Washington and Europe. We would like to know how you will focus the next interview.'

  `On sanctions, Comrade President. I believe it is possible to use American sanctions to resolve the internal problems you have been describing. In order to do that, we must ensure that apart from Dragonstrike China receives only a minimum of bad international press, which is inevitable.

  `I have been studying reports of dissent among our peasants and of the growing popularity of the New Communists, which even the Western media has picked. It is remarkable that they were able to smuggle a statement about the incident in Dingxi out of the Lanzhou Number One prison and get it published in the Washington Post. I suggest that the Ministry of State Security transfers surveillance resources currently used on foreign businessmen, who we should regard as allies, back to Western reporters, who are traditionally hostile. Any Westerner with a video or stills camera found in the provinces should be picked up for questioning, the film taken, and if they are under suspicion of acting for a foreign news organization they must be expelled. But under no circumstances must they be treated badly.'

  `What about tourists, Comrade?'

  `Watch them. Now. There has been very little problem in the transport of grain between provinces, but due to the southern floods last year we estimated a shortfall of more than 30,000,000 tonnes, which we will have to import. The provinces most affected are the southern coastal regions of Guangzhou, Fujian, Yunnan, and the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai. These are the areas which are being most troublesome in ignoring directives from Beijing. History may come to regard them as the cause of the fragmentation of China. They are rich. They buy much of their grain directly from America.

  `I suggest, comrades, that as soon as Washington announces sanctions we retaliate with the cancellation of our grain contracts. Shipments on their way should be turned back. The American sanctions will target our manufacturing exports, for which most factories are based in the same southern provinces. The jobs of tens of thousands of people will be at risk. There is bound to be social unrest, particularly in the Pearl River Delta around Guangdong, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai.'

  `What exactly are you proposing, Foreign Minister?' interrupted the President.

  `The art of war is to turn the inevitable attack of our enemy to our advantage. By ending the grain contracts, the American farmer will suffer. And the troublesome south will need our help to bring in supplies from elsewhere in China. As workers in the Special Economic Zones protest we will send in troops from other provinces to take control. In a very short time, Comrades, we can restore the power of Beijing in governing China. Provincial China will realize it needs us in the power from the centre.'

  `And the grain shortages?'

  `At the most the stand-off will last a few months. Then it will be business as usual. The Americans will renegotiate. If they don't we'll expel their multinationals, give the business to the Europeans, and buy our grain from Australia and Latin America.'

  The PLA Dragonstrike commander interjected with a question about American military plans. Jamie Song was deliberately deferential. In modern China, the soldier, not the academic, had the power. `I believe, comrade, that the American alliance with Japan is being severely tested. American businessmen are insisting on a quick diplomatic settlement. The Pentagon is not convinced it can commit forces to a protracted conflict in the South China Sea. I believe retaliatory sanctions together with the worst case scenario small number of American casualties would see the end of American involvement.'

  The Prime Minister's residence, Tokyo

  Local time: 1400 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  GMT: 0500 Tuesday 20 February 2001

  Prime Minister Hyashi's moment of truth came in the afternoon meeting of the cabinet's Defence Committee. He had been preparing for this for many years. During his time as Defence Minister he had immersed himself in defence issues — the state of Japan's readiness, the likelihood of a war with China, missile development, and the greatest taboo of all, nuclear rearmament. In choosing his cabinet Hyashi had paid heed to the wishes of the political barons who led competing factions. But Hyashi — whose faction was small — believed in the art of balance, not dominance. He had spent nights drinking with up and coming members of other factions, not to try to win them over to his group but so that when the time came some of them might serve with him in cabinet. His patience and perseverance had paid off. In Ishihara and Kimura s Defence and Foreign Ministers respectively ashi had two stout allies, men who were apprised of Japan's military position and men who, like himself, were prepared to think the hitherto unthinkable. The Defence Committee reconvened at Hyashi's official residence.

  `Gentlemen, I hope you have all had time to read the telegram from Ambassador Katayama in Washington,' Hyashi opened. `I think you will agree with me that it makes sorry reading and requires of us to take decisions today of far-reaching importance to Japan and the Japanese people.

  `I want to say at the outset that I expected, when pushed, the Americans would not honour their treaty with us.

  When the Nye initiative failed some years ago and was followed eight years later by American withdrawal from Okinawa I knew it was only a matter of time before the 1960 Security Treaty would either lapse or fall at the first hurdle. Bradlay's equivocation with me and subsequently our Ambassador as well leaves me in no doubt that the time has come for us to act.

  `We Japanese have always been alone. The security treaty was never
much more than a fig leaf, at least since the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union. And racial considerations, or more directly racial prejudice, have always been the cancer at the core of USJapanese relations. It is my firm conviction that the roots of USJapanese friction lie in the soil of racial prejudice. American racial prejudice is based upon the cultural belief that the modern era is the creation of the white race.

  `When I was Defence Minister I had the opportunity to talk to the Secretary of the US Navy about the Amber System. Amber is supposed to be the colour of caution and this system is named for this concept. Under the Amber System, ordinary vessels such as tankers and container ships are equipped with sonar on their bows. The sonar can detect underwater objects. Some are rocks, et cetera, which navigational charts will show. What the system is looking for is nuclear submarines.

  `The Amber System alone cannot detect the nationality of the submarine; it cannot tell if they are American, Russian, or whatever. It simply detects the presence of some foreign object and this information is relayed directly to the Pentagon, which knows what is on the navigational charts and also whether the particular sub is American or not.

  `I suggested that the US Navy equip all Japanese commercial vessels with this system. Japanese seamen are reliable and the Japanese merchant marine travels all the oceans and seas of the world. Japanese ships, including our oil tankers, could gather information along vital cargo routes and the US could analyse the information received from the Japanese ships.