Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)

by Humphrey Hawksley

  `I have told President Wang that withdrawal of US forces is conditional upon the cessation of all hostilities by China, and by that I mean all hostilities. During these past days China has not only launched attacks on Vietnam but has also occupied islands in the Taiwan Straits formerly held by the Taiwanese government. I call upon China to restore those islands to their lawful and legitimate government. And I have also told President Wang to submit China's claim to sovereignty over that area to international arbitration. Provided certain guarantees are made concerning free access of international shipping to the South China Sea I can see little reason for the United States to raise any objections. We are confident that these guarantees will be forthcoming. The Chinese government has agreed to allow Japanese naval vessels to escort merchant shipping.

  `If China agrees to our terms, the very real threat of nuclear war will have been averted. For that we should give thanks to God. For this is not a time for false triumphalism. As Nikita Khrushchev observed at the end of an earlier international crisis: they talk about who won and who lost. Human reason won. Mankind won.'

  Zhongnanhai, Beijing

  Local time: 0530 Saturday 24 February 2001

  GMT: 2130 Friday 23 February 2001

  Wang Feng called the meeting at short notice. Present were Jamie Song, General Zhao -- the wheeler-dealing soldier who commanded the People's Liberation Army's vast financial and industrial assets known simply as Multitechnologies -- and Zhang Zhi, Politburo member responsible for security. Wang was agitated. He kept on referring to `some people' who were questioning the course upon which he had set the country but a week before. He was not a man to show emotion and this uncharacteristic outburst underlined to those present the pressure he was under and the extent to which others in the leadership the `some people' he obliquely referred to re ready to pick up the baton should he drop it. He had finished his telephone conversation with Bradlay only hours before. It was a conversation mediated by interpreters at either end that prevented a nuclear exchange and effectively brought Dragonstrike to a conclusion. Yet far from feeling elated, he was moody and dejected.

  `So what have we achieved?' he asked rhetorically.

  `A financial success beyond our expectations,' General Zhao said. `We ought to be able to rebuild our navy with the proceeds of oil and currency market trading.'

  `Really!' he retorted.

  `Yes, Comrade,' General Zhao said. `May I be permitted to explain?' He met no resistance and proceeded. `I would ask that what I am about to say does not leave this room. This operation has been known to only three people. Briefly, Multitechnologies exploited its foreknowledge of Dragonstrike to make money for the PLA. We always knew our attack against Vietnam and the sequestration of the South China Sea would come at a price — the loss of important capital assets — and the President thought it prudent to provide for that contingency by some judicious investments. Excluding fees, Multitechnologies has done very well out of oil. Profits taken so far amounted to some $1.6 billion; this has been parked, temporarily, in the US Treasury bond market in short-dated T-bills. The biggest single trade we conducted was on Wednesday in Singapore, for $600 million. It was a special trade booked through the SIMEX exchange: our agent unloaded 30,000 oil futures contracts at $45 a barrel. We sold 80,000 of the original 160,000 IPE April contracts in the London futures market on Tuesday at a profit of more than $600 million, and still hold 50,000. Since the entry price into the market was $25 a barrel these 50,000 contracts mean we have $1 billion of paper profits to cash in. We plan to do so at the earliest opportunity. We also did quite well out of the yen. Deals in London and Tokyo netted $466 million. In short, Multitechnologies has made $2 billion in cash and has another $1 billion of profits still locked up in the London oil futures market. The bottom line, sir, is that Multitechnologies has doubled its money. We could buy a fully fitted-out aircraft carrier for that and still have change for a couple of submarines.'

  There was a gasp from Song and Zhang. Wang brightened. Although he had been kept informed throughout the week of Zhao's progress he had no idea he had been so successful. Song, a former businessman, gave Zhao a slight bow in recognition of his skilful trading. Zhang, who was bowled over by what he had heard, soon recovered his composure and indicated that he too had some good news.

  `Comrade,' Zhang began, `we have extinguished the antirevolutionary so-called New Communists. These people have been like thorns in our side. Yet in our coordinated police action we were able to arrest more than 500. We have released some, but they remain under close observation, and 203 were officially charged and they will be given gaol terms ranging from seven to twenty years. Our interrogation so far has led us to estimate that eight of the ringleaders have managed to elude us. We think they have made for the Vietnamese border, but I'm confident they will be apprehended. Think of our victory, Comrade, a dissident group which had taken years to create was crushed in less than an hour. This is an impressive achievement which no one can take away from you.'

  `Yes, that is particularly sweet. So what of you, Comrade?' he said, turning to Song.

  `I'm afraid I have nothing but good news for you,' he said, chancing an ironic smile in response to the President's improving spirits. `We have been transformed from a regional power into a global force capable of challenging America. The world has not witnessed such rapid change in power alignments since the Soviet Union collapsed under Gorbachev's reign leaving only the Americans to dominate the world stage. China has arrived. Our preparedness to risk nuclear exchange has bought us a seat at the top table. We have changed the world.

  `We have won an important victory in that we have the active acquiescence of most South-East Asian nations to our claim over the South China Sea. The West's agreement will follow after a suitable face-saving interval. The way is open for us to move on Taiwan. Japan is a problem, but not an insurmountable one. After all, like America, Japan has commercial interests to protect in China. We should sleep more soundly, not less so.'

  Wang sat back, rolling a pencil between his fingers, nodding as Song talked. Then he said, `But what about the Vietnamese. How did they do it?' as his fist came crashing down on the table.

  Tiananmen Square, Beijing

  Local time: 0730 Sunday 4 March 2001

  GMT: 2330 Saturday 3 March 2001

  In Tiananmen Square, dusted with freshly fallen snow, a soldier raised the national flag. Soon afterwards children arrived in bright red uniforms each carrying a flag bearing a portrait of President Wang. A line of kites flew at each end of the square with the symbol of the Dragonstrike War printed onto the cloth. Outside the Museum of History and Development film of the battles and the destruction was projected onto a large screen. Soldiers, aircrew, and sailors who had fought lined up squadron by squadron, battalion by battalion and ship by ship to file through the Mausoleum of Mao Zedong and pay their respects to the founder of modern China. They then took their positions, beginning at the south end of the Square, filling it up line by line. The JL2 and DF32 intercontinental ballistic missiles were driven down the Avenue of Heavenly Peace and drew to a halt as the procession had done less than a month earlier, facing the Gate of Heavenly Peace. The whole Square was filled with a mist of sleet and pollution. It was impossible to make out figures and buildings from one side to the other, but the hazy, dim atmosphere made the music and speeches of the Communist leaders even more distinctive. Cheers erupted from swirls of fog. The nation was told that lost territory in northern Vietnam would be recovered by the glorious bravery of troops from the Kunming and Guangzhou war zones; that men from the East Sea Fleet, the PLA Air Force, Marines, and troops from the Nanjing war zone would valiantly drive out the occupying nationalist forces of Taiwan and reunite it with the motherland; that the governments of Japan, Britain, France, and America had apologized to President Wang for atrocities carried out during colonial times, when China was a weak and corrupt nation; the sovereign rights over the South Sea by the motherland had been acknowledged by all nations.
President Wang Feng was a great and glorious leader for the whole of China.

  `Never again will China be disgraced and humiliated by foreign powers,' the People's Daily said, in a front-page editorial. `The motherland is now the strongest nation on Earth.'

  The Chinese President appeared above the gate of the Forbidden City. He was flanked by the generals who had directed the Dragonstrike War. General Zhao and Jamie Song were there with other members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo; among the international guests were the President of Iran, the Prime Minister of Russia, and the leaders of the Central Asian Republics of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. The Japanese Ambassador found it convenient to be in Tokyo for consultations. In protests reminiscent of the Cold War, Western diplomats boycotted the ceremonies.

  The Taiwan Straits

  Local time: 0715 Thursday 15 March 2001

  GMT: 2315 Wednesday 14 March 2001

  The attack came at first light. Twelve Su-27s came in low over the north-east coast of Taiwan; behind them six A-7 light attack bombers. They met no resistance as they made their first pass over Tan-shui, a coastal town at the mouth of the Tan-shui River. The A-7s carried C-802 anti-ship missiles. As they began their first run, sailors aboard ran for cover on board the Taiwanese Cheng Kung class frigate Pan Chao and the La Fayette class frigate Wu Chang. But it was too late. Within seconds the missiles had struck the ships, sending superheated shrapnel and exploding ordnance in all directions. Debris burnt all around the waters of the Tan-shui. Thick black smoke billowed into the air; the howls of the injured and dying were finally drowned out by an air raid warning siren. It sounded as the A-7s turned to make their second approach. Their target was a second La Fayette class frigate, Kun Ming. But the crew had had the vital seconds to react and defend themselves. Through an octuple launcher, they fired a salvo of surface-to-air missiles, destroying three aircraft. At the same time, the Chinese pilots found themselves flying into a blanket of depleted-uranium shells from the American-made close-in Phalanx weapons system on the bow. Firing up to 4,000 shells a minute, it hit two A-7s and blew up their air-to-surface missiles before they were able to hit the frigate.

  The Prime Minister's Residence, Tokyo

  Local time: 0830 Thursday 15 March 2001

  GMT: 2330 Wednesday 14 March 2001

  There was a knock on the door and Prime Minister Hyashi's Private Secretary entered the room. Hyashi was eating breakfast — fermented soya beans (natoh) mixed with strips of raw squid, and rice — and reviewing the morning's press. He looked up. `Yes?' he said.

  `Excuse me, sir, for interrupting you but Defence Minister Ishihara said you would want to see this.'

  Hyashi read the two-page document impassively. It described how a Japanese listening post on the Senkaku Islands had intercepted Chinese military communications at 0700 that morning. The Senkaku Islands which Beijing claimed and called Taioyu-tai Islands d been upgraded by Japan to a fully staffed and equipped military base in the fortnight following Dragonstrike. The provisioning of the islands had not been completed.

  The signals that were intercepted were the orders to PLA Air Force and naval units participating in the invasion of northern Taiwan. Hyashi finished reading and sat in silent thought. He turned to his Private Secretary and told him to convene a meeting of the cabinet's Defence Subcommittee for 0900. `Also call Ambassador Monroe and tell him that I want to talk to the President after the cabinet meeting. That is all.'

  Beijing

  Local time: 0730 Thursday 15 March 2001

  GMT: 2330 Wednesday 14 March 2001

  The Xinhua News Agency carried a report of the invasion, which it dubbed the `liberation' of Taiwan. It said the Chinese people had an historic yearning for reunification and called on the Taiwanese military to come over to the Communists' side. It said that those who joined forces with the PLA would retain the rank they held in the Taiwan Army. `The government of China does not seek retribution, only reunification,' it said. `All outstanding issues can be settled. Taiwan's people can continue to govern Taiwan. Taiwan's status as a member of international organizations will be preserved. The Central People's government seeks only peace and one China,' Xinhua said.

  Xinhua also carried a statement from President Wang Feng. It was a veiled warning to the United States to keep out of China's internal affairs. `If someone makes a show of force in the Taiwan Straits, that will not be helpful but will make the situation all the more complicated,' he said. Xinhua then warned him how China would respond if US warships entered the 200 kilometre wide passage between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. `If someone threatens the use of force against China this has been shown by past experience — will not spell any good results.'

  The Prime Minister's residence, Tokyo

  Local time: 0900 Thursday 15 March 2001

  GMT: 2400 Wednesday 14 March 2001

  The meeting room in which Hyashi liked to hold some of his Cabinet committee meetings filled with the now familiar faces. Ishihara from the Defence Ministry sat on the Prime Minister's right; on his left, Kimura from the Foreign Ministry. Wada and Naito (Finance and Trade respectively) were next, followed by General Ogawa, Director, Defence Intelligence Headquarters.

  `Well, General Ogawa, what is your assessment?' the Prime Minister began.

  `From what we can tell so far,' the General began, `based on telecommunications intercepts and information from an AWACS we sent up soon after the first interception at 0700, the Chinese have launched a two-pronged assault on the north of Taiwan. They have landed at Tan-shui on the north-west tip of the island and at Hsin-chu further south down the coast. Our assessment is that they have overstretched themselves. Taiwan is well defended and the military possesses the latest, or near to latest, American and European equipment.

  `Taiwan has 425,000 active servicemen split between the army (289,000), navy (68,000), and air force (68,000). The cornerstone of its defence, however, is its relationship with America. The US-Taiwan military relationship has remained strong, in spite of attempts by Beijing to drive a wedge between the two. Washington has sold or leased modern weaponry, including frigates, F-16 jet fighters, attack helicopters, early warning aircraft, tank-landing ships, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine-warfare equipment, and ballistic-missile-defence equipment. According to one source, "most of the armaments are suited for repulsing a sea assault or thwarting a naval blockade". If China is successful in making a beachhead it will face fierce local resistance. Taiwan has more than 300 tanks, of which at least half are located in the north-east. At sea, with 22 destroyers, 11 frigates, and 4 submarines it will be able to put up a stout defence to the Chinese.'

  The Prime Minister quietly sucked air through his teeth. Ogawa knew it was time to stop. Hyashi thanked him for his report. Ogawa rose and left the room. Hyashi then turned to Foreign Minister Kimura.

  `Kimura-san, why have they done this?' he asked. `Our navy has completed its first escort of our merchant ships through the South China Sea. Now the Taiwan Straits are effectively closed. That's not a serious problem, I grant you, but what does this action by the Chinese mean for our islands of Senkaku?'

  `There are two questions there, Prime Minister. To the first the honest answer is, we do not know. However, we think this attack is based upon a misreading of the politico-military situation in Taiwan. The proximate cause would appear to be some statements made by the leaders of Taiwan's New Party. The New Party was founded in 1994 and is a breakaway faction of the Kuomingtang, or KMT. The New Party has always favoured reunification and has despaired as the KMT has run a line, both domestically and internationally, that seeks an independent identity for Taiwan. The New Party's spokesmen were particularly bellicose on China's behalf during the Dragonstrike conflict. Some even suggested that Taiwan should unify with the mainland to present a united Chinese face to the world. Significantly, at a meeting in Taipei at the height of the conflict the twenty-second of February number of important generals, including General Yen Chi-tsai, who control
s the army around Hsin-chu, were present at a meeting with senior New Party officials. A colonel on General Yen's staff, a Hung Tzu-lin, went to Beijing the next day — the twenty-third of February. We do not know what he did in Beijing but our information is that he visited Zhongnanhai and the Taiwan Affairs Office. Our best guess is that Beijing, which as you can see is well informed about affairs on Taiwan, has acted on the belief that General Yen was an ally and that the Taiwanese military is deeply divided. We further believe that the troops landed at Hsinchu are no more than a token, symbolic force and are not intended to spearhead a major invasion. As further evidence for this I offer the Xinhua News Agency's initial dispatch. It is notable for its lack of hard-line rhetoric towards the rulers in Taiwan. `

  As for our position on the Senkaku Islands, no one internationally, takes China's claim at all seriously. The Chinese call the islands Taioyu-tai and include them on their official maps. There have been skirmishes in the past. A Chinese campaign to regain the islands cannot be ruled out, especially in the face of this latest crisis, based, as it is, on national reunification. We need to be vigilant. Our navy should escort merchant shipping not just out through the South China Sea but also through the waters of the East China Sea where the Senkaku Islands lie.'

  Hyashi was still. `I have been preoccupied over the past week or so with our relations with the United States. We spoke about this, Kimura-san, only two days ago. Every time I see Monroe, the US Ambassador, he is on at me to visit Washington. Perhaps this latest disturbance might prove useful. At times such as these a country like Japan needs friends. I will be placing a call to President Bradlay after this meeting.'