The Viral Epiphany

by Richard McSheehy

  “A year and a half from now before people are immunized?” the President asked, “Are you kidding? Do you have any idea how fast this is spreading?”

  “Yes sir, I do. But that’s the best we can do,” Dr. Fields said softly, avoiding the President’s eyes.

  “Have you done a propagation analysis yet?” President Cranston said in exasperation as he turned back to General Baker.

  General Baker took a deep breath and exhaled slowly, “Yes, sir. We have. As you know we have mathematical models for disease propagation. These models take in to account the method of transmission, population density, the coefficient of transmissibility, and other variables.”

  President Cranston nodded, saying nothing, but his expression indicated that he was not interested in a lecture on the mathematics of disease propagation.

  “Sir,” General Baker said shifting a little uneasily in his chair, “let me come right to the point. We cannot afford to wait for the CDC to create a vaccine; this disease is just too virulent and as you guessed it is spreading way too fast.”

  “How fast?”

  General Baker opened his briefcase and took out a set of papers. “I have some of that here. Of course, we had to make some approximations because we don’t necessarily have a complete set of propagation coefficients. However, there are some general guidelines we use that are valid in most cases.”

  “Such as?” the President said.

  “One of the most important is the RMS distance between possible contacts.”

  “I’m sorry,” Dr. Goodfellow interjected, “could you explain what that means?”

  “It’s sort of the average separation between people who might contract the disease. For example, in a densely populated city like Shanghai, the RMS distance might be three feet; however, in a place like the Arctic Circle the RMS distance may well be twenty miles.”

  “I see.”

  “The greater the RMS distance the lower the probability of the disease spreading. If the RMS distance is great enough and the life expectancy of a disease organism is short enough the disease typically cannot propagate further and it eventually dies out.”

  “OK,” the President said, “That’s somewhat encouraging, I guess. But I’m not interested in hypothetical situations right now, so just give us the bottom line, OK? What is Omega’s projection?”

  General Baker looked at the President for a moment before replying. “Yes, sir. Our estimate is the following:” he looked down at the next sheet of paper. “All of the largest cities in the world, that is cities having populations of over ten million people, will be infected within the next week. All cities with populations between one million and ten million people will be infected within the next three weeks. All cities worldwide with populations over one hundred thousand will be infected within three months. All towns with over one thousand people will be infected within six months. So far our data shows that the death rate for people who contract the disease is one hundred percent.”

  “Is that your entire analysis?” the President asked.

  “No, sir. The disease appears to remain viable on surfaces far longer than influenza and other viruses. Therefore our computer models indicate that it may not burn itself out.”

  “It won’t? Ever?” asked Dr. Goodfellow.

  “It’s a distinct possibility, sir.”

  “Well, what if it doesn’t? What happens then?” he replied.

  General Baker looked at each of them before replying, “Eventual extinction.”

  There was an audible gasp from each of the men. None of them had even considered this. President Cranston closed his eyes for a few moments and shook his head; then he turned to General Baker and said with an air of resignation in his voice, “So that’s it? There’s nothing we can do?”

  General Baker hesitated for several seconds before replying. “Sir, we do have some contingency plans, but they are really only meant as a last resort.”

  “You have contingency plans? For something like this? Why would you have plans like that?” asked Dr. Fields.

  “Never mind,” President Cranston said, “We won’t go there right now.” Then he turned to General Baker. “What do you mean ‘contingency plans’?”

  “Several years ago we did a study to determine how, or if, we could cope with something, uh, like this. You see, this is sort of like a forest fire.” The President looked at him and squinted a little, but he went on. “If a fire starts in the middle of a forest there are plenty of trees around and it spreads rapidly in all directions. Right?” He looked around and everyone nodded.

  “One very effective device that firefighters use in these cases is to start a backfire. They set fire to a large area of trees outside the main fire so that when the forest fire gets to that point there is no fuel. See, it’s already burned up. Only charred trees are left and they can’t burn again can they? With no more fuel the forest fire dies.”

  “Sooo…what are you saying?” Dr. Fields asked.

  General Baker took out several sets of a document and passed them around the table. Each set was sealed in opaque, red-colored plastic with a cover page attached to the plastic. “Gentlemen, please sign your name on the space indicated and then give the papers to me. After that you can open the plastic covers and have a look at the contingency plan. Please note that this document is classified top secret eyes only; you cannot remove this document from this room and you must never discuss the contents with any person outside this room.”

  “OK,” Dr. Goodfellow said as he started to pull open the plastic cover.

  “I’m sorry,” General Baker said. “I haven’t quite finished. There is a very severe penalty for anyone who divulges any of this information outside this room. Ever.”

  “Oh,” Dr. Goodfellow said quietly as he stopped tearing the plastic. “And what penalty is that?”

  “Death,” General Baker replied. “Anyone who is suspected of violating the secrecy of this document will be dealt with by special agents of the Omega Project. In this regard we are operating under the Presidential emergency executive order number…”

  “That’s enough, General,” President Cranston said, “I think he gets the idea. Just don’t tell anyone, Charlie. OK?”

  “Yes, sir. Sure thing,” he replied, but he didn’t rip open the plastic cover. Instead he sat for a few moments and watched the others. When everyone had torn off the covers of their documents he finally did the same. Then he began reading:

  TOP SECRET

  EYES ONLY

  Operation Clean Sweep

  Executive Summary

  Under certain eventualities a very aggressive disease agent may be released in an arbitrary worldwide location. Such agents can, in general, be countered with a variety of biological and chemical defenses. However, the remote possibility exists that agents that have been exposed to the natural environment may mutate into even more aggressive forms for which no chemical or biological remedy is available. The propagation of such disease agents may possibly inflict very heavy and unwanted damage on friendly populations. Computer models indicate that such aggressive disease agents must be stopped and annihilated at the earliest possible opportunity. The only completely reliable method of destroying any arbitrary disease agent is by extreme heat. Extremely high temperatures break all of the chemical bonds within the agent thus completely destroying the capabilities of the agent. This Operation Clean Sweep document provides detailed plans for the worldwide targeting and absolute destruction of these disease agents and population centers that have been infected. Among the enabling technologies for this task are the existing U.S. stockpile of intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range bombers, and thermonuclear weapons.

  TOP SECRET

  Twenty-Two

  Tink, tink…tink…tink. Crystals of ice, driven by a fierce wind from the Celtic Sea, flew against the windowpane and then fell in the deepening twilight to the street below. Sheila sat by the window, a cup of warm, but yet unsipped, hot chocolate in her hands, w
hile she watched the hastening, gray storm clouds tumble in from the east. It would be a wild evening tonight. The weather forecast on the television had warned of increasing gale winds with sleet and possible snow with temperatures plunging more than twenty degrees Celsius in the next two hours. Sheila smiled. She loved these untamable winds, the ice and snow-filled gusts that rattled the windows, and the drama of the ever-shifting clouds as they charged across the sky. Brendan’s cozy apartment with the turf fire burning in the fireplace and the soft, overstuffed sofa and chairs that were set back only slightly from the fire made it all the more enjoyable. The warm drink would make it perfect.

  A few snowflakes were already appearing now, intermixed with the small, nearly rectangular pellets of ice that were accumulating on the sill but which still melted on the asphalt of the streets. The falling ice soon changed to soft snow that alighted ever so gently on the window frame and then, seconds later, blew off in a gust. She noticed that a lower corner of the window was becoming slightly less transparent. Frost had started to paint feathered swirls and interleaved patterns that looked almost like the script of an ancient Celtic text. Like a fairy’s magic charm she was drawn to the icy writing and soon became absorbed in the delicate intricacies they traced. It was almost as if she could understand what ephemeral secrets were slowly being written on the glass, and all the while, as if in a competition of the elements, the wind whispered its own words of enchantment.

  In the distance she heard a sudden, loud sound - a thump, and then another, and then another until her consciousness was filled with the thumping sounds, and then the door of the apartment swung open and Dan and Brendan stamped in, shaking the ice and snow off their clothes. She shook her head as she turned and the fairies were gone.

  Brendan took Dan’s coat and hat and walked over to hang them in the closet while Dan took a seat on the sofa by the fire. He rubbed his hands in the welcome warmth then turned to Sheila.

  “What took you so long?” she asked, “I thought you were only going to have but one pint!” She couldn’t help smiling.

  “Oh, but we did,” Dan replied with a quick look towards Brendan, “it was just the one. But we got to talking, you see… Now then, Sheila, what have you been doing? Having hot chocolate by the window, I see,” Dan said returning her smile, “and all the while the television running with no one paying the least bit of attention, I suppose.” He walked over to turn off the television, but the show that was being broadcast was abruptly interrupted and replaced with the evening news anchor, Sean O’Flynn.

  Radio Telefis Eireann interrupts this broadcast, he said, to bring you an important announcement. Here is a news bulletin just in:

  Several cases of the extremely deadly disease, Asian Fever, have today been reported in several major European capitals including London, Paris, Madrid, Berlin, and Rome. So far no cases have been reported in Ireland. An emergency meeting of the Dail was conducted an hour ago and the Taoiseach has just announced that a decision was made to close the island of Ireland’s borders immediately and entirely. The government of Northern Ireland and the Republic are cooperating fully in this regard. All ports of entry are now closed to any and all travelers. This includes all commercial airlines and all shipping. Airplanes and ships that are presently enroute to Ireland are being redirected to other locations.

  In a further development, the government of Japan announced today that they have found the source of the disease that has already claimed so many lives in Asia. Although details are scarce, it was reported that a bio-researcher, Dr. Stephen Itagaki, had inadvertently resurrected a long extinct virus when he cloned a mammoth at the Tokyo Zoo! In a story right out of science fiction novels, the disease was somehow transmitted to humans, beginning with the first cases in Bangkok, Thailand. Japanese police have strong evidence that Dr. Itagaki recently fled from Japan and they are working closely with other police forces to locate him. Tune in to the six o’clock news for a full report on all developments.

  “I don’t believe this!” Sheila whispered as she joined Dan on the sofa. “They’ve just closed all the borders! And that disease – a cloned mammoth! Dan…your friend!”

  Dan sat and stared at the television for a few moments; then he said, “Stephen Itagaki unleashed Asian Fever? From a cloned mammoth? Oh, my God. Stephen!” He said nothing for several seconds and then he sat up straight, “ Brendan!”

  Brendan was standing quietly beside the fireplace, staring into the flames, as if in a trance.

  “Brendan!!” Dan called again and Brendan slowly turned towards him. “Are you thinking what I’m thinking?” Brendan nodded, but said nothing. “What do you think?” Dan asked, “Would it work?”

  “I…I don’t know,” he replied, “I mean, it was just an exercise.”

  Sheila looked from one of them to the other, not understanding. “What are you two talking about? What was just an exercise?”

  Dan turned to her, but she could see he was still searching his mind, trying to understand something. “When we were at the pub we talked about the thesis work that Brendan had done and how he had discovered a virus in the mammoth tissue sample that Stephen had given us.”

  “Yes, OK.”

  “Why don’t you explain, Brendan?” Dan said as he turned back to him.

  “Well,” Brendan said, “truth be told, I was able to discover the virus fairly soon in my study. I mean, after all, it was right there. All you had to do was look. So, when I had finished characterizing the viral DNA, I thought I would try another experiment, just for fun actually, because it wouldn’t really have any application and it wouldn’t really fit into the thesis project”

  “What did you do?” she asked.

  “I did a computer analysis of the viral DNA and then I used a genetic engineering program to see if I could design a vaccine for the virus, just as an exercise, of course.”

  “You designed a vaccine for the mammoth’s virus?”

  “Yes, actually, I did a little more. You know that genetic engineering is becoming fairly routine these days and, well, I have a good friend who works at one of the major pharmaceutical plants in Cork.”

  Sheila only nodded, anticipating what would come next.

  “Together we made a small quantity of the vaccine – just as a test you see. I have it stored in the refrigerator.”

  “The refrigerator? Where?”

  “Here, of course,” he said pointing to the refrigerator in the kitchen. “It’s just there – six doses.”

  Dan and Sheila looked at each other for several seconds with neither saying a word until Brendan finally said, “Listen, the vaccine I made is for the virus I found in the mammoth tissue. The virus that causes Asian Fever, even if it came from a mammoth, isn’t the same. It must have changed so that it could jump the species boundary. The vaccine I made might not be effective.”

  “That’s true,” Sheila said, “but listen, the virus that causes Asian Fever is still probably quite similar to the original. Viruses don’t usually make huge changes in their DNA when they adapt to new conditions. Chances are the DNA is at least ninety percent the same, so your vaccine, if it is effective, would also have a very good chance of being effective against Asian Fever too. Right, Dan?”

  “You’re absolutely right, Sheila. Absolutely,” Dan said and then turned to Brendan, “We need to figure out what to do next. This could be a very important thing you’ve done here.”

  Brendan didn’t say anything.

  “But there is one other thing that you couldn’t have simulated with a computer,” Dan said, “We don’t know if the vaccine is harmful. I mean sometimes vaccines are created that look good on paper but can actually cause harm or even death. It would still have to go through a series of trials before it could be deemed safe for use.”

  “Oh, it’s safe,” Brendan replied.

  “How can you be sure?” Sheila asked.

  Brendan smiled at the two of them, “Because I originally made seven doses. I vaccinated myself two weeks
ago.”

  “What?” Dan exclaimed, “are you crazy? You could have killed yourself!”

  “I…I was pretty sure, sir,” he said quietly.

  Dan just shook his head and stared at Brendan. “Incredible.” Then he also broke into a smile and laughed, “But brilliant, I must say. Brilliant, Brendan. Just brilliant!”

  The room suddenly shook violently and a crashing sound like a thunderclap reverberated outside the window. Brendan ran to the window and looked out. Off in the distance he could see flames and smoke rising up from the university campus.

  “There’s been an explosion on campus!” he said, “It looks like it came from the biosciences building. There are flames shooting out some windows.”

  “Where?” Dan and Sheila said together.

  “I’m not sure,” he said turning back and looking at Dan, “but I think it’s your office.”

  Twenty-Three

  Bright, fiery plumes of yellow and red were pouring from the windows of Dan’s office, illuminating the softly falling snowflakes that melted into little pools of dark water as soon as they touched the ground. Moments after the explosion, emergency lights lit up the gray stones of the outside walls of the biosciences building, even as the lights inside flickered once and then twice, and then died. Two men, each wearing black windbreakers and knit hats, ran from the building, and were momentarily illuminated by the floodlights before they disappeared into the deepening shadows. The men paused and looked back only for a moment, and then began climbing the slippery, slushy, cut stone stairway that led to the parking lot above the bioresearch facility. Off in the distance, and unnoticed by the men, the battlements at the top of the tall, gray tower of the administration building were glowing shadowy red, while far below, in the building’s open-air corridor, piercing sea-winds howled past the ancient standing stones, and filled their enigmatic, etched carvings with ghostly white ice.