The Pandemic Century

by The Pandemic Century- One Hundred Years of Panic, Hysteria

  258 fresh cell line: Malik Peiris, interview with author, Hong Kong, March 27, 2017.

  260 Peiris explained: Peiris, interview with author.

  261 typed by GenBank: J. S. M. Peiris and Y. Guan, “Confronting SARS: A View from Hong Kong,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences 359, no. 1447 (July 29, 2004): 1075–79.

  261 he explained: Peiris, interview with author.

  261 British medical journal The Lancet: J. S. M. Peiris et al., “Coronavirus as a Possible Cause of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,” The Lancet 361, no. 9366 (April 19, 2003): 1319–25.

  262 necessary cause of SARS: Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague, 118–20.

  262 “heads above water”: Peiris, interview with author.

  264 suspended in Toronto: “Learning from SARS: Renewal of Public Health in Canada,” Report of the National Advisory Committee on SARS and Public Health, October 2003, accessed February 8, 2017, http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/sars-sras/naylor/index-eng.php.

  264 “‘the big one’”: James Young, “My Experience with SARS,” in Jacalyn Duffin and Arthur Sweetman, eds., SARS In Context: Memory, History, Policy (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2006), 19–25.

  265 “and were desolate”: Dick Zoutman, “Remembering SARS and the Ontario SARS Scientific Advisory Committee,” in Duffin and Sweetman, eds., SARS In Context, 27–40.

  265 occurred in the meantime: “How ‘Total Recall’ Saved Toronto’s Film Industry,” Toronto Star, September 22, 2011, accessed February 8, 2017, https://www.thestar.com/news/2011/09/22/how_total_recall_saved_torontos_film_industry.html.

  266 “as a place of disease”: Christine Loh and Jennifer Welker, “SARS and the Hong Kong Community,” in Loh and Civic Exchange, eds., At the Epicentre, 218.

  267 “we are going home”: Keith Bradsher, “A Respiratory Illness: Economic Impact; From Tourism to High Finance, Mysterious Illness Spreads Havoc,” New York Times, April 3, 2003, accessed October 2, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/03/world/respiratory-illness-economic-impact-tourism-high-finance-mysterious-illness.html?mcubz=I.

  267 plunge by 60 percent: Sui A Wong, “Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong,” Asian Economic Papers 3, no. 1 (2004): 62–83.

  267 “more urban-sounding virus”: Duncan Jepson, “When the Fear of SARS Went Viral,” New York Times, March 14, 2013, accessed October 2, 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/15/opinion/global/when-the-fear-of-SARS-went-viral.html?mcubz=i.

  269 risk of contamination: Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague, 70–75.

  271 “infection to humans”: Yi Guan et al., “Isolation and Characterization of Viruses Related to the SARS Coronavirus from Animals in Southern China,” Science 302, no. 5643 (October 10, 2003): 276–78.

  272 lining the human lung: Wendong Li et al.,”Bats Are Natural Reservoirs of SARS- Like Coronaviruses,” Science 310, no. 5748 (October 28, 2005): 676–79.

  272 president of EcoHealth Alliance: Kai Kupferschmidt, “Bats May Be Carrying the Next SARS Pandemic,” Science, October 30, 2013. To add further confusion, in 2012 another coronavirus, distantly related to SARS, emerged in Saudi Arabia. Serological evidence suggests that the virus, dubbed Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), had circulated in camels in Africa and the Arabian peninsula for up to twenty years and that camels most likely acquired the virus from a bat native to sub-Saharan Africa. Victor Max Corman et al., “Rooting the Phylogenetic Tree of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus by Characterization of a Conspecific Virus from an African Bat,” Journal of Virology 88, no. 19 (October 1, 2014): 11297–303.

  272 action the authorities took: Robert G. Webster, “Wet Markets—a Continuing Source of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Influenza?,” The Lancet 363, no. 9404 (January 17, 2004): 234–36.

  272 lifts on airplanes: Gaby Hinsliff et al., “The day the world caught a cold,” The Observer, April 27, 2003, accessed October 2, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/apr/27/sars.johnaglionby.

  273 “bioterrorist threat of all”: Peiris and Guan, “Confronting SARS,” 1078.

  274 a different story: Abraham, Twenty-First Century Plague, 42–49.

  274 losses to the global economy: “Panicking Only Makes It Worse: Epidemics damage economies as well as health,” The Economist, August 16, 2014, accessed October 2, 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/international/21612158-epidemics-damage-economies-well-health-panicking-only-makes-it-worse.

  275 “if not impossible”: Heymann and Rodier, “SARS: Lessons from a New Disease.”

  275 “may be far from the truth”: Roy M. Anderson et al., “Epidemiology, Transmission Dynamics and Control of SARS: The 2002–2003 Epidemic,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 359, no. 1447 (July 29, 2004): 1091–1105.

  CHAPTER VIII: EBOLA AT THE BORDERS

  277 equivalent of a Big Mac: Almudena Marí Saéz et al., “Investigating the Zoonotic Origin of the West African Ebola Epidemic,” EMBO Molecular Medicine, December 29, 2014, e201404792.

  278 by Emile’s sister: Sylvain Baize et al., “Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea,” New England Journal of Medicine 371, no. 15 (October 9, 2014): 1418–25.

  279 between Liberia and Sierra Leone: Paul Richards, Ebola: How a Peoples’ Science Helped End an Epidemic (London: Zed Books, 2016), 29–31.

  279 alert on March 10: Baize et al., “Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea.”

  280 That patient had had Ebola: Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), “Ebola: Pushed to the limit and beyond,” March 23, 2015, accessed April 29, 2015, http://www.msf.org/article/ebola-pushed-limit-and-beyond.

  280 and multiple organ failure: Daniel S. Chertow et al., “Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa—Clinical Manifestations and Management,” New England Journal of Medicine 371, no. 22 (November 27, 2014): 2054–57; Mark G. Kortepeter et al., “Basic Clinical and Laboratory Features of Filoviral Hemorrhagic Fever,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 204, suppl. 3 (January 11, 2011): S810–16.

  280 “slime of virus particles”: Richard Preston, The Hot Zone (London and New York: Doubleday, 1994), 81–83.

  281 “‘in this region before’”: MSF, “Ebola,” 1–21, 5.

  282 took much notice: J. Knobloch et al., “A Serological Survey on Viral Haemor- rhagic Fevers in Liberia,” Annales de l’Institut Pasteur/Virologie 133, no. 2 (January I, 1982): 125–28.

  283 “virus in West Africa”: “Army Scientist Uses Diagnostic Tools to Track Viruses,” US Department of Defense, accessed December 7, 2015, http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/603830/army-scientist-uses-diagnostic-tools-to-track-viruses. Later, when the WHO confirmed the outbreak was due to Zaire ebolavirus, the journal revised its decision and published Schoepp’s paper. Randal J. Schoepp et al., “Undiagnosed Acute Viral Febrile Illnesses, Sierra Leone,” Emerging Infectious Diseases 20, no. 7 (July 2014): 1176–82.

  283 it had a problem: Baize et al., “Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea.”

  283 “areas of south-eastern Guinea”: WHO, “Ebola Outbreak 2014–15,” accessed May 6, 2015, http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/.

  284 “remained a localised event”: Pam Belluck et al., “How Ebola Roared Back,” New York Times, December 29, 2014, accessed May 6, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/30/health/how-ebola-roared-back.html.

  284 spread of the virus: MSF, “Ebola,” 6.

  285 the worst was over: In fact, as would subsequently become clear, Ebola had already crossed into Liberia and Sierra Leone and was spreading via several concurrent transmission lines, aided by the passage of the family members incubating the virus across the region’s porous borders.

  285 population of 400,000: Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum et al., “Ebola Virus Outbreaks in Africa: Past and Present,” The Onderstepoort Journal of Veterinary Research 79, no. 2 (2012): 451; David M. Pigott et al., “Mapping the Zoonotic Niche of Ebola Virus Disease in Africa,” e
Life, September 8, 2014, e04395.

  287 genital mutilation: Neil Carey, “Ebola and Poro: Plague, Ancient Art, and the New Ritual of Death,” Poro Studies Association, accessed January 16, 2017, http://www.porostudiesassociation.org/ebola-and-secret-societies/.

  288 more than Ebola itself: Paul Richards, “Burial/other cultural practices and risk of EVD transmission in the Mano River Region,” Briefing note for DFID, October 14, 2014, Ebola Response Anthropology Platform, accessed January 16, 2017, http://www.ebola-anthropology.net/evidence/1269/.

  288 seven days after death: Mark G. Kortepeter et al., “Basic Clinical and Laboratory Features of Filoviral Hemorrhagic Fever,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 204, suppl. 3 (November 1, 2011): S810–16. doi:10.1093/infdis/jir299.

  289 “spirit,” he explained: Jean-Jacques Muyembe-Tamfum, interview with author, May 29, 2015.

  290 highway to Kinshasa: David L. Heymann et al., “Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever: Lessons from Kikwit, Democratic Republic of the Congo,” Journal of Infectious Diseases 179, suppl. 1 (February 1, 1999): S283–86. doi:10.1086/514287.

  290 “Outbreaks then stop rapidly”: David Heymann, interview with author, March 19, 2015.

  291 dumped in a latrine: James Fairhead, “Understanding social resistance to Ebola response in Guinea,” Ebola Response Anthropology Platform, April 2015, accessed January 16, 2017, http://www.ebola-anthropology.net/evidence/1269/; Pam Belluck, “Red Cross Faces Attacks at Ebola Victims’ Funerals,” New York Times, February 12, 2015, accessed January 16, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/world/africa/red-cross-faces-attacks-at-ebola-victims-funerals.html.

  292 “caught in a catch 22”: “Ebola and Emerging Infectious Diseases: Measuring the Risk,” Chatham House, May 6, 2014, accessed November 11, 2015, https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/198881.

  293 “dog that didn’t bark”: Armand Sprecher, “The MSF Response to the West African Ebola Outbreak,” The Ebola Epidemic in West Africa, Institute of Medicine, Washington, DC, March 25, 2015.

  293 “So I ran away”: “Outbreak—Transcript,” Frontline, accessed October 5, 2017, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/outbreak/transcript/.

  296 “‘Leave us alone’”: Joshua Hammer, “My Nurses are Dead and I Don’t Know If I’m Already Infected—Matter,” Medium, January 12, 2015, accessed February 4, 2015, https://medium.com/matter/did-sierra-leones-hero-doctor-have-to-die-icide004941e.

  296 virus reaching Freetown: Oliver Johnson, interview with author, March 10, 2015.

  297 “sub-regional public health issue”: “Briefing note to the director-general, June 2014,” Associated Press, “Bungling Ebola-Documents,” accessed June 17, 2015, http://data.ap.org/projects/2015/who-ebola/.

  297 declared Ebola a pheic: “Ebola Outbreak in W. Africa ‘totally out of control’—MSF,” RT English, accessed September 30, 2015, http://www.rt.com/news/167404-ebola-africa-out-of-control/.

  298 “hospital to eat,” said Pooley: Will Pooley, interview with author, May 24, 2015.

  300 “enough for my brother”: Umaru Fofana and Daniel Flynn, “Sierra Leone Hero Doctor’s Death Exposes Slow Ebola Response,” accessed February 12, 2015, http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/24/health-ebola-khan-idINKBN0GO07C20140824.

  300 the “carrot” of treatment: Daniel G. Bausch et al., “A Tribute to Sheik Humarr Khan and All the Healthcare Workers in West Africa Who Have Sacrificed in the Fight against Ebola Virus Disease: Mae We Hush,” Antiviral Research 111 (November 2014): 33–35.

  301 the tri-border region: Etienne Simon-Loriere et al., “Distinct Lineages of Ebola Virus in Guinea during the 2014 West African Epidemic,” Nature 524, no. 7563 (August 6, 2015): 102–4.

  303 “suffer the consequences”: Ed Mazza, “Donald Trump Says Ebola Doctors ‘Must Suffer the Consequences,’ ” Huffington Post, August 4, 2014, sec. Media, accessed May 6, 2015, https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/03/donald-trump-ebola-doctors_n_5646424.html.

  303 “epidemic of mass hysteria”: Belgium Airways in-flight magazine, March 2015.

  304 “began to wake up”: MSF, “Ebola,” 11.

  305 “play a role,” said Liu: Joanne Liu, Global Health Risks Framework, Wellcome Trust workshop, September 1–2, 2015.

  305 “molecular shark”: Preston, The Hot Zone, 81–83.

  305 “through the human race”: Preston, The Hot Zone, 289–90.

  305 in Honolulu: Garrett, The Coming Plague, 593–95.

  307 “a horrific situation”: Tom Frieden, interview with author, October 26, 2015.

  307 “into the burning building”: “Statement of Joanne Liu at United Nations Special Briefing on Ebola,” United Nations, New York, September 2, 2014, accessed November 27, 2015, http://association.msf.org/node/162513.

  308 “corrected for underreporting”: Martin Meltzer et al., and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries (Washington, DC: 2002) 63 suppl. 3 (September 26, 2014): 1–14.

  308 “urban environment before”: Norimitsu Onishi, “As Ebola Grips Liberia’s Capital, a Quarantine Sows Social Chaos,” New York Times, August 28, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/world/africa/in-liberias-capital-an-ebola-outbreak-like-no-other.html.

  309 “out of this thing”: Breslow, “Was Ebola Outbreak an Exception Or Was It a Precedent?” “Outbreak,” Frontline, accessed May 6, 2015, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/health-science-technology/outbreak/was-ebola-outbreak-an-exception-or-was-it-a-precedent/.

  310 the “getting to zero” drive: Mark Honigsbaum, “Ebola: The Road to Zero,” Mosaic, accessed October 5, 2017, https://mosaicscience.com/story/ebola-road-zero.

  311 infected two nurses: Manny Fernandez and Kevin Sack, “Ebola Patient Sent Home Despite Fever, Records Show,” New York Times, October 10, 2014, accessed October 1, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/us/thomas-duncan-had-a-fever-of-103-er-records-show.html.

  311 within seventy-two hours: Duncan was most likely infected with Ebola in Monrovia on September 15 when he carried his landlord’s daughter, who was stricken with Ebola, home from the hospital. However, he had showed no signs of fever or other symptoms of Ebola when he was screened on September 19 before boarding a flight from Monrovia to Brussels, from where he caught a connecting flight to Washington Dulles, followed by a second to Dallas-Fort Worth. “Retracing the Steps of the Dallas Ebola Patient,” New York Times, October 1, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/01/us/retracing-the-steps-of-the-dallas-ebola-patient.html.

  312 “hands-on deployment”: MSF, “Ebola,” 9.

  312 early months of the crisis: WHO, “Report of the Ebola Interim Assessment Panel—July 2015,” WHO, Geneva, accessed August 6, 2015, http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/ebola/ebola-panel-report/en/.

  313 “in previous areas”: Pierre Rollin, interview with author, October 26, 2015.

  313 “what we have now”: Kevin Belluck et al., “How Ebola Roared Back,” New York Times, December 29, 2014, accessed October 1, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/30/health/how-ebola-roared-back.html.

  313 “thirty-seven years”: Wellcome. “Discussing Global Health at Davos,” Wellcome Trust Blog, accessed June 11, 2015, http://blog.wellcome.ac.uk/2015/01/21/discussing-global-health-at-davos/. Black Swan is the title of a 2010 best-selling book by the Lebanese-American essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and refers to an event for which past experience has not prepared us and which, until it occurs, is widely considered to be an impossibility—the paradigm example being that before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced that all swans were white because no one had seen a black one before. According to Taleb, a Black Swan has three key elements: “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.”

  314 had been 57 percent: Muyembe-Tamfum, “Ebola Virus Outbreaks in Africa.”

  314 more than four
hundred deaths: WHO, “Ebola virus disease, fact sheet 103, updated August 2015. Table: Chronology of previous Ebola virus disease outbreaks,” accessed December 4, 2015, http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/.

  315 the shelves of biotech companies: The reasons for this are beyond the scope of this book, save to say that pharmaceutical companies have little commercial incentive to invest in vaccines and drugs for neglected tropical diseases such as Ebola. Having said that, during the outbreak in Guinea an international consortium backed by the WHO were able to demonstrate that an experimental vaccine developed by the Public Health Agency of Canada and the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency that had previously only been tested in monkeys under laboratory conditions conferred 100 percent protection against Ebola in trial subjects immunized randomly in the field. While questions remain about the safety of the rVSV vaccine and the duration of its protective effect, the prospect is that it could be offered to health workers before they are deployed to the next Ebola outbreak, thereby reducing the incidence of disease and keeping casualties to a minimum. Thomas W. Geisbert, “First Ebola Virus Vaccine to Protect Human Beings?,” The Lancet 389, no. 10068 (February 4, 2017): 479–80.

  315 introduction to West Africa: Edward C. Holmes et al., “The Evolution of Ebola Virus: Insights from the 2013–2016 Epidemic,” Nature 538, no. 7624 (October 13, 2016): 193–200.

  CHAPTER IX: Z IS FOR ZIKA

  318 “like it,” she said: Juliana Barbassa, “Inside the fight against the Zika virus,” Vogue, May 5, 2016, accessed August 1, 2017, https://www.vogue.com/article/zika-virus-doctor-vanessa-van-der-linden.

  319 “something very wrong”: Laura Clark Rohrer, “Enigma,” Pitt (University of Pittsburgh), Summer 2017, 19–23.

  319 could not be a coincidence: Liz Braga, “How a Small Team of Doctors Convinced the World to Stop Ignoring Zika,” Newsweek, February 29, 2016, accessed August 1, 2017, http://www.newsweek.com/2016/03/11/zika-microcephaly-connection-brazil-doctors-431427.html.