The Ten Roads to Riches
Page 1
FISHER INVESTMENTS PRESS
Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments’ research team, headed by Executive Chairman and New York Times bestselling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audience—from novices to enthusiasts to professionals.
Books by Ken Fisher
Beat the Crowd
Debunkery
How to Smell a Rat
Markets Never Forget (But People Do)
Plan Your Prosperity
The Little Book of Market Myths
The Ten Roads to Riches
The Only Three Questions That Still Count
100 Minds That Made the Market
The Wall Street Waltz
Super Stocks
Fisher Investments Series
Own the World by Aaron Anderson
20/20 Money by Michael Hanson
Fisher Investments on Series
Fisher Investments on Consumer Discretionary
Fisher Investments on Consumer Staples
Fisher Investments on Emerging Markets
Fisher Investments on Energy
Fisher Investments on Financials
Fisher Investments on Health Care
Fisher Investments on Industrials
Fisher Investments on Materials
Fisher Investments on Technology
Fisher Investments on Telecom
Fisher Investments on Utilities
THE
TEN ROADS
TO
RICHES
THE WAYS THE WEALTHY
GET THERE
(AND HOW YOU CAN, TOO)
Second Edition
KEN FISHER
WITH LARA W. HOFFMANS AND ELISABETH DELLINGER
Cover image: (background) © tusumaru/Getty Images
Cover design: Michael J. Freeland
Copyright © 2017 by Fisher Investments. All rights reserved.
Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.
Published simultaneously in Canada.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.
For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762-2974, outside the United States at (317) 572-3993 or fax (317) 572-4002.
Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand. Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand. If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com. For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:
Names: Fisher, Kenneth L., author. | Hoffmans, Lara, author. | Dellinger, Elisabeth, author.
Title: The ten roads to riches : the ways the wealthy get there (and how you can too) / Ken Fisher ; with Lara Hoffmans and Elisabeth Dellinger.
Description: Second edition. | Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2017] | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
Identifiers: LCCN 2017004045 (print) | LCCN 2017014327 (ebook) | ISBN 978-1-118-44505-1 (Adobe PDF) | ISBN 978-1-118-44503-7 (ePub) | ISBN 978-1-118-44507-5 (cloth)
Subjects: LCSH: Success in business. | Wealth. | Success.
Classification: LCC HF5386 (ebook) | LCC HF5386 .F415556 2017 (print) | DDC 332.024/01—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004045
CONTENTS
Preface: Now, More Than Ever Why Now?
The Times They Are A-Changin’, But Not By Much
Same Roads, New Faces
A Roadmap to the Ten Roads
When You Come to A Fork in the Road, Take It
Celebrity or No?
A Sidetrack Off The Road
The Right Road
Acknowledgments
About The Authors
Chapter 1 The Richest Road Picking a Path
Newer or Better?
Built to Sell or Built to Last?
Bootstrap or Finance?
Public or Private?
The Big Bull’s-Eye
Founders Are Quitters—Just Do It
Chapter 2 Pardon Me, That’s My Throne Gray Hair and Dues-Paying
A CEO-volution (Through My Father’s Eyes)
How to Lead
How to Get the Job
Aim Small . . . at First
The Big Payday
CEOs and Superheroes
The Best Part
Executive Education
Chapter 3 Along for the Ride: Ride-Alongs Why Ride Along?
Pick the Right Firm
Be the Right Guy
Ride-Along Reading
Chapter 4 Rich . . . and Famous The Talent Show
Potholes Ahead No One Sees!
Mogul Meandering
Read Your Way to Fame
Chapter 5 Marry Well. Really Well How to Marry a Millionaire Billionaire
Like a Fine Wine—Well Maintained
Men Can Play, Too!
Love, Marriage, and Money
Do It by the Book
Chapter 6 Steal It—Like a Pirate, But Legally Crusader or Pirate?
Raider’s Road
The Richest Legal Road
Tort Us and the Scare
Target Practice
When a Pirate Becomes a Villain
The Inside Track
Chapter 7 OPM—Not Opium: Where Most of the Richest Are Basic OPM Career Rules
Steps to OPM Wealth
Hedge Your Bets
Private Equity’s Big Bucks
Don’t Break the Law
Love Capitalism, Not Social Acceptance
Chapter 8 Inventing Income The True Inventors
Writing for Dollars
Political Pensions—and Good News
If You Can’t Be President . . .
Think Tanks Run Amok—a Sham-Scam
Monetized Reading
Chapter 9 Trumping the Land Barons The Magic
Monetize It
The Fool’s Bargain
Flippin’s for Friggin’ Losers
Getting Started
B
uy, Build, or Both?
Where to Be and Not to Be; That Is the Question
Baron Books
Chapter 10 The Road More Traveled Income Matters
Saving Grace
Get a Good Rate of Return (Buy Stocks)
The Right Strategy
Bonds Are Riskier Than Stocks—Seriously
Like Hetty?
Reading for Dollars
Index
Eula
List of Tables
Chapter 2 Table 2.1
Chapter 7 Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Table 7.3
Table 7.4
Chapter 9 Table 9.1
List of Illustrations
Chapter 10 Figure 10.1 Average Returns Aren’t Normal .
Figure 10.2 Life Expectancy .
Figure 10.3 Benchmark and Time Horizon
Figure 10.4 Domestic and Foreign Leadership Trades Off .
Figure 10.5 Real After-Tax US 10-Year Treasury Returns, 1926–2016
Figure 10.6 Real After-Tax S&P 500 Returns, 1926–2016
PREFACE
NOW, MORE THAN EVER
This book’s first version came out at the worst possible time: autumn 2008, when global markets seemed bound for hell in a handbasket.
In hindsight, I’m lucky it merely fell through the cracks, escaping much notice as the global financial crisis wrecked markets and ended Wall Street as we knew it. The backlash over a book lauding wealth building—with tongue occasionally in cheek—at such a dark time could have been huge and harsh. “Look at old, out-of-touch Ken Fisher, fiddling with books while Wall Street crashes!” “Get rich? In this market? As if!” Most observers probably wouldn’t have cared that books have incredibly long lead times, that I did most of my writing over nights and weekends in 2007, or that the release date was scheduled months in advance, before anyone much cared about Lehman Brothers’ liquidity. Thank goodness for small mercies.
At the same time, it also made me a little sad. I’ve always liked this little book. It was a departure for me—unlike my prior books, it wasn’t a heavy exploration of capital markets. Instead, it was (and is) a detailed micro and macro inspection of how really wealthy people got that way and how you could (still can!) get there, too—with many fun stories and personal anecdotes along the way. One of my goals was to help remove the stigma around wealth. Even back then, before “income inequality” became the hottest topic in political economics, there was a growing sense that wealth was something to be ashamed of. I’ve always believed the opposite: When you get rich in an appropriate way, you make the world a better place. You create wealth not just for yourself but for society. Others benefit from your efforts. I wanted folks to know how to do this back then, and I still do.
WHY NOW?
Since this book first appeared, society has only become more hostile to wealth, not less. We’ve had the Occupy Wall Street movement and the vilification of the so-called One Percent. The growing backlash against income and wealth inequality. Politicians building entire careers on wanting to cut the rich and corporations down to size and spread the wealth. Survey after survey showing millennials turning their backs on capitalism, desperate for a new system that “actually works.” Bernie Sanders’ barnstorming 2016 presidential campaign, where over 12 million Democratic primary voters picked the socialist senator’s “political revolution” against an “obscene” wealth gap “and corporate greed.”1 And of course the political rise of Donald Trump, a billionaire pitching himself as the champion of the forgotten everyman.
So I probably look a little nuts for releasing this second edition now. Fine with me! It just makes this book all the more urgent. Most of the popular literature overstates inequality (more on this in a moment), but even so: Every person who newly becomes rich does their own little part to narrow the gap.
Getting rich carries an element of self-interest some will find distasteful. Always has, probably always will. But that doesn’t negate the broader societal impact. If you get rich by building a business, you probably employ people and make their life better. Maybe you enable them to move to a better neighborhood, send their kids to good schools, and go on to wonderful things in life. Great! Or maybe you’ll create some new product or service that improves the environment, nutrition, public health, elder care, childhood learning, or whatever drives you. Maybe you’ll enrich our culture by entertaining people or writing hit songs. Maybe you’ll build your wealth by managing other people’s money, helping them reach their financial goals. Maybe you’ll be a land baron, renovating properties and giving folks a better place to live as you erase blight. All of these can boost society as well as your bank account.
Becoming rich usually means doing good (as you will see) and often living an exciting life. Where would humans be today had Bob Noyce not coinvented the integrated circuit? He chose a path to riches and benefited the world immensely—rich, poor, in between, everyone. We’ll see that beneficent effect repeatedly in people who changed the world for the better, doing good, getting rich, and enjoying their lives. That’s a beyond-great thing for everyone. And it feels great to those who do it.
It’s true that not everyone can become rich. But it’s clear to me that most people can—they just don’t know how. If more people knew how, we would have more rich people and the world would be a better place. It’s already on that road, with extreme poverty in decline around the world as the ranks of the wealthy spread across developed and emerging nations. With enough time and motivated people who know how to create wealth, we can erase poverty. There would still be a “wealth gap” of sorts, but those at the bottom would live like the top of society from generations past. Quality of life counts. It won’t happen in my lifetime or yours, but every person who ascends the rungs takes a small step toward a much better world. I’m asking you to read this book and then do your part.
THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’, BUT NOT BY MUCH
These days, it’s fashionable to say the good times are over, that opportunities extant in the 1980s and 1990s are gone forever. People point to US real median household income’s 7.2 percent drop from 1999 to 2014 as evidence social mobility—and the middle class—is dead (2015’s 5.2 percent rise didn’t much calm them).2 Not so! Few fathom it, but it is just as possible to get rich now as it was 10, 20, even 50 years ago.
To see it, step back. Take your focus off popular notions of income inequality. They get it all wrong. The most widely cited studies twist the definition of income, using pretax numbers and lumping capital gains with earned income—something even the IRS doesn’t do. They also ignore demographics like age and household size. By tracking household income alone, they compare a 23-year-old just starting out to the combined income of her parents, both working and in their prime earning years. That isn’t real inequality—just life.
In 2015, the median US household earned $56,516. But the median married couple earned $84,626! The median single female householder earned just $37,797, while her single male counterpart earned $55,861. The number of earners matters. So does age! The median income for ages 35–54 topped $70,000. But the under-24 set earned just $36,108. The next-oldest, aged 25–34, earned $57,366—a big boost from progressing in their careers and moving above entry-level pay.3
To put it another way: While the median household income might look rather blah over the last 25 years, it isn’t like individual households (or single earners) have been stuck at that one level or seen their fortunes dwindle. Actually, most of the data show people earn steadily more as they move through life. Measures that track actual people, rather than broad totals, like the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Wage Growth Tracker, show strong income gains since the mid-1990s (you can find this online at https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker.aspx).
There will always be some disparity in income and wealth. Some people will take big risks that pay off, and they’ll be rewarded. Others won’t. They might make a pretty great living, but that doesn’t mean they’ll build billions
. And that’s OK! What matters is whether people still have the opportunity to hit it big.
This is what the income-inequality backlash misses. By focusing on unequal outcomes, they overlook the more important issue: equality of opportunity. Or, more simply: Is America today still the same upwardly mobile society it was in decades past?
Answer: Yes! A 2014 study by economists from Berkeley and Harvard, considered the gold standard on the topic, finds intergenerational mobility today is about where it was 20, even 50 years ago.4 You can debate whether the level of mobility is high enough (I’d love more mobility!), but if it hasn’t changed in five decades, that means it’s just as easy (or hard) for you to get rich now as it was before. The stories of the folks profiled in this book are as relevant now as they were when it was first published.
That also means capitalism still works, by the way. I know it isn’t a sexy or popular thing to say. But that’s the first thing you need to understand if you’re going to read this book and try to join the One Percent.
SAME ROADS, NEW FACES
Most literature on wealth inequality derides those who control “capital,” painting dystopian visions of dynastic wealth controlling the planet—families narrowly hoarding most of the world’s money, leaving none for anyone else to gain. In reality, very few Forbes 400 members got rich solely by inheriting. Fully 266 are self-made, including 40 immigrants who lived the American dream. The rest are split between pure heirs (including a handful with “Walton” in their name) and those who built off inheritances but added to the pile. When the list started in the early 1980s, fewer than half had built their own fortunes.5 Some of the newest self-made billionaires, like Snapchat cofounder Evan Spiegel, weren’t alive when the first Forbes list was published.