Peregrinus Orior

by Robertson, John

  They had their logbook time-stamped and signed-off at the marshal station and were told that they were the unofficial winners with the second fastest time into the paddling segment and the only team to complete both discretionary checkpoints. They were pleased with that outcome but were more concerned to learn of the status of the team that had capsized.

  One of the marshals took them aside and said, “The team you rescued are all fine. They are at the hospital in Lakeview being monitored, but they seem fully recovered. They are asking to be taken back out on the lake so that they can finish the course, even though they realize they are disqualified. You know, it could have been a much less happy outcome if you guys hadn’t come to their assistance.”

  The police team perfectly understood their fellow adventure racers’ desire to complete the race even though technically they were no longer in it. They connected with Kevin, enjoyed a light brunch put on by volunteers from Lakeview and New Pine Creek, and headed off for the drive back to Santa Rosa. On the drive back there was much reliving of the high points of the race, and a shared sense of mutual accomplishment. Although no one put it into exact words, while they were all very satisfied with their individual and team performance in the race, their greatest sense of accomplishment stemmed from having helped out their peers in difficulty. That was just the way they were all wired.

  Chapter 25

  Late April, 2028

  Washington, DC

  James Rushton sat behind his desk in the Oval Office awaiting the arrival of the chairman of the Democratic National Committee with mixed emotions. A week earlier he had met with the chairman plus a group of ranking Democrats from both the House and the Senate, as well as the governors of several of the states. It was a group that had been carefully selected to command respect for their views and to be able persuaders. They had a sole objective. They had not come seeking favors for particular constituencies, or to try to influence policy in any way. They had come to persuade the president to change his decision and to accept a nomination from the floor of the Democratic National Convention to stand as its candidate for election to the presidency of the United States of America. He would not need to run in the primary process, and all other contenders for the nomination would withdraw.

  There had been lots of speculation in the media about the direction the upcoming presidential election would take. The scenarios had included the extreme of an indefinite suspension of the constitution and the election, which Jim had quickly quashed. He had appeared again before the national media to convey that the situation did not call for such extreme measures. Though Peregrinus was a serious matter that would require hard work, sacrifices, some hardships and a lot of cooperation among Americans and all the peoples of the world, it would not require any lessening of America’s democratic traditions. The country had survived other crises with its democracy intact and would do so again. As to another speculative scenario that he would reverse his decision and run for another term of leadership, the president would only say that he was fully occupied with overseeing the nation’s preparations for the arrival of Peregrinus and did not have time or inclination to engage in the political process.

  Speculation continued, so it was no surprise when Will Templeton advised him of the meeting request, attendees and purpose. In fact, he had been called upon individually by several of the individuals the week before, so he was already well versed in the topic. He and Julie had talked it over extensively the evening before that meeting.

  After hearing out the principal spokesmen of the group and exploring their thinking for a while, James had offered a counterproposal. He had advised them that he was planning within a matter of days to announce several new policies and programs that had been developed by the various federal government departments. Some would be controversial. Most he could effect by presidential order under existing legislation, though some would require new legislation for which he would expect their unreserved support. If they provided that support, and if they still wanted him to run once they had gauged the public reaction to his Peregrinus measures, then he would agree to do so. The group of leaders had recognized the wisdom of the president’s approach and had pledged their support without even insisting on knowing the details of the new programs.

  A few days later James Rushton had returned once again to national television to lay out his plans as to how the United States and its neighbors would adapt to the new climate challenge Mother Nature had thrust upon them. Jim began by congratulating his countrymen, as well as their neighbors to the north and south, on the progress they had achieved in mitigating man-made global warming, in part through cooperative efforts among the three nations. He went on to recapitulate the facts of the new scenario that would result from the brief visit by Peregrinus, including a decline in global average temperature within a year or two after it passed of about six degrees Fahrenheit. The result would be that eventually all of Canada and the northern tier of the United States would face year-round ice. Apart from a few key centers of strategic importance, most northern communities would need to be relocated eventually, though likely not for several decades. Likewise, on the same timescale, alternative arrangements would be made for the agricultural production from this huge area that currently met much of the needs of the two countries and a good part of the world.

  President Rushton went on to enumerate the measures he had authorized. There would be an immediate cap on all energy prices with increases of more than 10 percent above preannouncement prices prohibited subject to exemptions, which would be considered by a new administrative division within the Department of Energy. Of all the measures, Jim had the greatest qualms with this one. It ran contrary to his belief in free markets as the most effective long-run system of production and consumption. However, he had been convinced that soon the world was going to realize how precious every bit of energy was about to become. Chaos would result in energy markets. Jim accepted the reality that the accompanying exemption process would be bureaucratic, slow and clumsy.

  Along with price caps there would be tax incentives for increased production of any form of energy. The government would also provide selected direct subsidies for the development of more expensive sources of energy, including, by agreement with the government of Canada, the accelerated development of the vast reserves of the Canadian oil sands.

  The government would begin to fill the capacity of the existing national strategic petroleum reserve from its current stock of six hundred and fifty million barrels to its capacity of seven hundred and fifty million barrels. At the same time the Department of Energy and the Army Corps of Engineers were tasked with developing additional storage reservoirs for both crude oil and natural gas as well as propane and butane. Any additional pipeline infrastructure required to accommodate increased production and storage of these products would be expedited under presidential emergency orders. Modifications to existing production and transportation infrastructure to permit continued operation at below-design ambient temperatures would receive additional tax incentives.

  The government would initiate a federally owned and operated nuclear power program. It was expected to take five years to produce any additional power from this program even with an executive order preempting any state or local regulatory processes.

  The Fresh Water Production Accord between the United States and Mexico would be substantially expanded and large tracts of land in Northern Mexico, California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas would be set aside for irrigation and agricultural production.

  President Rushton revealed a new agreement with the governments of Mexico and Canada providing for three ninety-nine-year leases of fifty thousand square miles each of land in the states of Sonora, Chihuahua and Coahuila in Northern Mexico, adjacent to the U.S. border.

  In combination, these three 250-mile long by 200-mile deep tracts of land would equal more than half the size of the state of Texas. Two would be administered under the laws of the United States and one by Canada. The boundarie
s had been carefully drawn to exclude the few major urban centers in Northern Mexico and were otherwise sparsely populated. Any Mexican citizens remaining in the leased territories would retain their citizenship but would also be granted all rights and benefits of a U.S. or Canadian permanent resident while being exempt from filing U.S. or Canadian tax returns and from military service.

  New planned communities would be gradually developed in the new Mexican territories, and in the adjacent U.S. border states, over the next couple of decades with sufficient housing and infrastructure to eventually accommodate up to two hundred million relocated people, when that became necessary. The president knew that similar arrangements were being made between the northern European countries and those of southern Europe and North Africa, including, in the case of the latter, an extensive fresh water production program. Like Mexico, the countries of North Africa were going to receive significant economic benefits as a result.

  The last component of the Peregrinus response measures the president announced was a homeowner subsidy program for increased insulation, weatherproofing and heating system upgrades.

  The only other possible measure that President Rushton and his cabinet had reviewed but set aside for the time being was a geoengineering program to amplify the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This was too much for even the broad-minded president to get his head around after so recently and for so long having considered greenhouse gases to be the bane of the world. President Rushton directed that the research on the methods, costs, effectiveness and risks of such a program could continue, but he wanted to concentrate on the execution of the rest of the measures to start with and to see how cold it would really get before considering geoengineering any further.

  The president stood as Will Templeton ushered the chairman of the Democratic Party into the Oval Office. Jim was of mixed mind because he didn’t relish committing himself to another four years in office, yet he had concluded in discussion with his wife that it was now a duty he could not avoid, if asked. He knew that the public response to his announced measures had been largely favorable. There were harsh outcries by the more extreme anti-fossil fuel groups and likewise the anti-nuclear energy groups. However, the population at large seemed mostly relieved at the concrete actions being taken so far in advance. Even most environmentalists, which an increasingly large segment of the population were to some degree, seemed to recognize that the game had changed and that preparing for global cooling had become the new priority.

  The president shook hands with the chairman of the Democratic Party and asked him to be seated. Jim sat opposite and motioned for the chairman to begin.

  “Mr. President,” said the chairman, “thank you for this meeting, and congratulations on your thorough plan for protecting our country from the effects of Peregrinus. Mr. President, my message to you today reflects our discussion of a few days ago. I am here to say that the leadership of our party continues to hold you in the greatest respect and endorses you to run as the party’s candidate in the presidential election to be held later this year. The people of our country trust both your character and your leadership skills. You are the man best suited to lead this country through the coming challenges. The party will organize the nomination process so as to minimize your involvement in the preelection process. You will have no opposition to your nomination at our national convention in August. We would like you to be present for a nationally televised acceptance speech, and you will need to invest a moderate amount of time in public appearances during your run for election. Do you accept this invitation?”

  “I accept your invitation as you have explained it,” said James Rushton.

  The next day all the major newspapers carried an announcement from the Democratic Party the main content of which was, in summary:

  “The Democratic National Committee of the United States of America is pleased to announce that in view of recent developments, President James Rushton has changed his previously announced intention not to run for an elected term as president. President Rushton has now agreed to accept the Democratic Party’s nomination as its candidate for the presidency. The nomination will be formally confirmed at the party’s convention on August 19, 2028. All existing Democratic Party nomination contenders have agreed to withdraw from consideration. James Rushton will also be eligible for a second elected term in the 2032 election, enabling continuity of leadership as our great country meets the challenges of the future.”

  Jim was mildly peeved at the final sentence of the announcement, which, though inarguably factually accurate, was not a message that had been discussed with him and was, he felt, getting rather further ahead of the game than necessary. However, he had much bigger matters to deal with.

  Chapter 26

  June 2029

  Near Brest, Belarus

  Lieutenant Gregor Aleksevich sat on the edge of the turret of his T-14 Armata tank at nine o’clock in the morning. From this position, he could just see above the crest of the lightly wooded minor ridge to his front, though his main gun, a 152-millimeter cannon, would not be able to engage targets on the other side of the ridge without moving forward about fifty yards, which he had been ordered not to do. It mattered little, he thought, because there were no targets to engage, other than a small Polish border post about five hundred yards forward. At least there were no targets visible to his binoculars over the two thousand yards of open meadows and fields between him and the next small ridge now that the early morning mist had lifted.

  What might lie beyond the next ridge inside Polish territory remained to be seen. Gregor’s was one of eleven tanks assigned to the 2nd Company, 1st battalion, 1st Guards Tank Regiment, 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division. The other ten tanks in the company were spaced about fifty yards apart, roughly the distance they would maintain as they raced into Poland on the attack. The 1st Company of the battalion was spaced out on a similar line to his left and the 3rd was to his right, with the 4th and 5th a hundred yards behind in reserve. He could see the soldiers of the supporting infantry company hunkered down behind his company’s tanks.

  The battalion had moved into position the night before during a violent storm, which muffled the noise of their engines if anyone was listening. The other three battalions of the regiment, and their supporting infantry, had likewise taken advantage of the weather to move into position, having awaited such a stealth opportunity for a week. One was on each of his battalion’s flanks and the fourth was immediately to their rear. Now all were well camouflaged with a random assortment of netting and foliage just short of the border between Belarus and Poland on the eastern flank of the NATO alliance.

  Although Belarus was officially independent of Russia, the last pretense of that status had blown away in the face of the arrival of Peregrinus. Belarus had always leaned more toward Moscow than its fellow eastern European members of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics when the latter was dissolved in 1991. It had fallen quickly into the arms of Russia following the announcement of Peregrinus. As a relatively poor country, it would need support to weather the coming cold, and to have chosen NATO would have precipitated its own early destruction as the battlefield for an immediate war. Consequently, the Russian military command had been able to position their primary offensive start line on the western border of Belarus within relatively short striking distance of Berlin, Brussels, Paris and eventually Madrid.

  A similar though smaller offensive would also use Belarus as a springboard, launching from Gomel in southern Belarus into northern Ukraine, through Hungary and Austria into Italy. A third army would launch from the Crimean peninsula through southern Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and into Greece, while a fourth would launch from the Caucasus through Georgia and into Turkey. It was a bold military strategy but, if successful, it would gain Russia the industrial capability and wealth of Europe as well as several Mediterranean refuges from the cold.

  Gregor was positioned at the apex of the three-battalion-wide regimental front of the primar
y and strongest assault force. He would have been proud to lead the attack, but he knew that role had been assigned to the 4th Battalion, which would advance rapidly through his line, following path marker ribboning, once the command had been given. The rest of the regiment would follow immediately behind the spearhead 4th Battalion. Behind him he knew lay another two full heavy armor regiments, another four hundred and forty tanks, plus an attached artillery regiment of two hundred self-propelled cannons, comprising the armored strength of the rest of the division. Altogether, including three regiments of integrated infantry, the division fielded more than eleven thousand men under arms, a formidable force set to punch through NATO’s thin outer shell of border defense and subdue its targets before enemy reinforcements could be brought to bear.

  Aligned behind the 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division were another four of Russia’s twenty-two active divisions, likewise heavily armored given Russian military doctrine, which favored massive armored formations. In fact, Russian land forces, which were mostly based in western and central Russia, could field nearly twenty-five thousand main battle tanks compared with the United States at about one third that number across all of its theaters of operation. The follow-on divisions would consist mainly of the previous generation T-90 main battle tanks, which were still potent.

  Each of the other three offensive thrusts were likewise led by a spearhead division built around the state-of-the-art T-14 Armada tanks, with another two or three follow-on armored divisions. The follow-on divisions, including their integrated infantry regiments were, in every case, tasked with occupation and suppression roles following behind the spearhead divisions. The overall attack would be a formidable sledgehammer blow, unstoppable by the reckoning of Russia’s president and his military advisors, and beyond any effective retaliation or counterattack by NATO’s superior strategic air power once in occupation of Europe’s key urban and industrial centers.