on national accounts, 39
on public debt, 40–41
Wriston, Walter, 51
Wynne, William H., 42, 393n1, 394n7, 396n20
Young, Arthur Nichols, 357t
Yousef, Tarik M., 40, 308t, 396n15
Zarazaga, Carlos E. J. M., 349t
Zumer, Frederic, 296t, 300t, 301t, 307t, 308t, 309t, 314t, 320t, 330t, 331t, 332t, 333t, 334t, 337t, 338t, 341t, 342t, 396n21
SUBJECT INDEX
Page numbers for entries occurring in boxes are suffixed by a b; those for entries in figures, by an f; those for entries in notes, by an n, with the number of the note following; and those for entries in tables, by a t.
academic literature: on banking crises, focus of, xxxii, 141
data used in, xxvii–xxviii, 279
domestic public debt ignored in, xxxi, 109b, 110, 119, 124–25, 136–37
on indicators of crises, 216–17, 279
on types of capital flows, 30
on U.S. current account balance, 210–12
advanced economies: banking crises in, xxvi–xxvii, xxxii, 141–42, 147–55, 167–69, 223–24
data on public debt in, 40–41
debt intolerance in, 27
financial turbulence index for, 253, 254f, 255
transition from emerging market to, 283. See also specific countries
Africa: banking crises in, 143, 147, 148t, 151t, 154t
contagion of crises in, 246–47
data coverage of, 43, 45t
domestic public debt in, 105f, 399n2
external default in (See African external default)
financial turbulence index for, 257–59, 257f
graduation in, 287
inflation crises after 1800 in, 182, 184t, 185, 187, 188f, 189. See also specific countries
African external default, xxxi
in 1800s, 91t, 92
in 1900s and 2000s, 92, 95t
countries with no history of, 44
time spent in, since independence, 95–98, 97t
aftermath, 223–39
of banking crises, xxxii, 162–71, 223–39
comparison of episodes of, 225–38
depth of downturn in, 226–30, 235
domestic public debt in, 123–24, 123f
duration of downturn in, 224, 226–30
of exchange rate crises, 191–93
external default in, 232–33, 233f
fiscal legacy in, 231–32, 231t, 232f
GDP in, 129, 130f
of Great Depression, 225, 233–38
of inflation crises, 180, 191–93
inflation rates in, 129–33, 131f, 132t
public debt in, 224–25, 231–32, 231t, 232f, 237–38
shared characteristics of, 224–30
of U.S. subprime crisis, 222, 405n33
Albania, banking crises in, 348t
Algeria: banking crises in, 348t
Angola: banking crises in, 348t
inflation crises in, 185
Annual Reports, League of Nations, 37
Argentina: banking crises in, 143, 159, 206, 225, 251, 348–50t
Barings crisis of 1890 in, 242
Brady bonds in, 83b, 85b
debt crisis of 1990s and early 2000s in, 19
debt intolerance of, 28–29
de-dollarization in, 195–96
domestic debt in, foreign currency–linked, 64, 108, 109b
domestic default by, 14, 111, 251, 399n12
duration of crises in, 235, 237
exchange rate crises in, xliii, 190
external debt to GDP ratios in, 22, 28–29
external default in 2001 by, 10–12, 22, 23t, 250, 251–52, 256, 394n5
financial turbulence index for, 250, 251–52, 256
graduation in, 284, 290
housing prices in, 159
inflation crises after 1800 in, 187, 403n6
inflation rate calculation in, 399n12, 403n6
sovereign risk rating of, 28–29
Armenia, banking crises in, 350t
art treasures, 52, 397n1
Asia: banking crises in, 147, 148t, 151t, 154t, 159, 160t, 206
contagion of crises in, 246
data coverage of, 43, 45t
domestic public debt in, 105f
exchange rate crises in, 190
exchange rates in, 18
external default in (See Asian external default)
financial turbulence index for, 257, 258f, 259
housing prices in, 159, 160t
inflation crises in, 182–85, 183t, 184t, 187, 188f
this-time-isdifferent syndrome in, 18–19. See also specific countries
Asian crises of 1997–1998 (Big Six crises): compared to other crises, 206, 225
contagion of, 246
exchange rate crash in, 190
in financial turbulence index, 256
housing prices in, 159, 160t
list of countries involved in, 159, 225
this-time-isdifferent syndrome in, 18–19
Asian external default, xxx–xxxi
in 1900s and 2000s, 92, 95t
countries with no history of, 45t, 44
time spent in, since independence, 95–98, 97t
asset prices: in aftermath of crises, 224
and banking crises, 158–62, 160t, 216–17, 217f
bursting of bubbles in, 7–8
Australia: banking crises in, 350t
trade during global crises, 264
Austria: banking crises in, 171, 226, 350–51t
currency debasement in, 177, 178f
duration of crises in, 235, 237
equity prices in, 226
external default by, xxx, 87, 87t, 92, 98
Azerbaijan, banking crises in, 351t
bailout costs: in banking crises, 142, 163–64, 164t, 170, 224
difficulty of measuring, 163–64, 224
Bangladesh, banking crises in, 351t
bank(s): confidence in, xl–xli, 145
deposit insurance for, xl–xli, 143, 144–45
failures of, 144–45, 172–73
in financial repression, 66
indicators of crises in, 8, 9–10
investment, 210, 214
nonperforming loans of, 9–10
number of, before and after crises, 162, 163f
trade financed by, 57. See also central banks
bank holidays, 251–52
banking crises, 141–73
in advanced versus emerging economies, xxvi–xxvii, xxxii, 141–42, 147–55, 167–69, 223–24
aftermath of, xxxii, 162–71, 223–39
asset prices and, 158–62, 160t, 216–17, 217f
bailout costs for, 142, 163–64, 164t, 170, 224
bank runs in, 10, 144–45
capital flows bonanzas and, 157–58, 158t
capital mobility and, 155–56, 156f
contagion of, 241–42, 243–44t
corporate defaults linked with, 251, 252f
data on, 10, 141–42, 344–92
dating of, 8–10, 11t, 344–47t, 407n26
definition of, xxvi, 8–10, 11t
duration of, 162, 166
economic theory on, 143–47
equity prices and, 161–62, 161f, 218, 218f, 226, 228f
external default linked with, 73–75, 74f, 232–33, 233f
in financial turbulence index, 251, 255–56
fiscal effects of, 142, 162–71
focus of studies on, xxxii, 141
global impact of, 204
graduation from, 139, 141, 147, 153, 171, 283–84
in Great Depression, xliv, 146, 204–5
Great Depression versus postwar, 225, 233–38
historical summaries of, 348–92t
housing prices around, 142, 158–62, 160t, 172, 226, 227f
incidence of, xxvi–xxvii, 141, 147–55, 148–54t, 204–6, 205f
indicators of, 8–10, 216–22, 279, 280t
liberalization and, 155�
��56, 206, 270–71
public debt before, 219–20, 221f
public debt after, xxxii, 142, 163, 169–71, 170f, 224–25, 231–32, 231t, 232f
recessions associated with, 145–47, 172–73
recommendations on responses to, 289–90
in repressed systems, 143, 205
sequencing of, 270–73, 271f
serial, 141, 150
types of, 11t, 143–44
U.S. subprime crisis versus postwar, 215–22, 216t, 225–30
weighted by share of GDP, 204, 205f
Bank of America, 210
bank runs: bank holidays and, 251–52
in banking crises, 10, 144–45
crises of confidence in, xl–xli
definition of, 144
bankruptcies: corporate, 52, 59
as indicators of banking crises, 9–10
rights of creditors in, 52
sovereign, 52
bankruptcy court, international, 57
bank stocks, as indicators of crises, 8
Bardi Bank, 70b
Barings crisis of 1890, 109b, 242. See also Argentina
Barro-Ursúa stock market collapse, 250, 252, 253f, 254f, 407n7
base money. See monetary base
BCDI index, 249, 253f, 254f, 255. See also financial turbulence index
Belarus, banking crises in, 351t
Belgium, banking crises in, 171, 351–52t
Benin, banking crises in, 352t
Bernanke-Gertler model, 146
Big Five crises: bailout costs in, 164
equity prices in, 218, 218f
GDP growth after, 165, 165f, 219
housing prices in, 159, 160t, 217, 217f
list of countries involved in, 159, 225
revenue after, 167–69, 168f
U.S. subprime crisis versus, 215, 216t, 217–20, 225
Big Six crises. See Asian crises of 1997–1998
Black Monday crash of October 1987, 250
bloodletting, 87
Bolivia: banking crises in, 352–53t
de-dollarization in, 196, 403n10
inflation in domestic default by, 400n3
bond(s): Brady, 83b–85b, 259
Carter, 400n5
in Latin American debt crises, 17, 19
in this-time-is-different syndrome, 17, 19
booms: appearance versus reality of threats posed by debt in, xxv
this-time-is-different syndrome during, xxxiv
borrowers: after debt intolerance graduation, 28–33
reputation of, 55–58
Bosnia and Herzegovina, banking crises in, 353t
Botswana, banking crises in, 353t
Brady bonds, 83b–85b, 259
Brazil: banking crises in, 353–54t
Brady bonds in, 83b, 85b
currency conversions in, 6
debt crisis of 1990s and early 2000s in, 19
domestic debt in, 109b, 125, 400n10
duration of crises in, 235
exchange rate crises in, 190
external default by, 94
financial crisis of 2002 in, 53
foreign currency–linked domestic debt in, 109b
inflation in, 125, 400n10
presidential elections in, 53
Bretton Woods, 206, 248
Bretton Woods II, 211
bridge loans, 60, 61, 64
Britain: confidence in, xliv
in Egypt’s external default, 81, 83b
enforcement of debt repayment by, 54, 81, 81b–83b
in Newfoundland’s external default, 81b–83b
recession of 1970s in, 230. See also England; United Kingdom
broad money, in de-dollarization, 193–96, 194f
Brunei, banking crises in, 354t
bubbles: IT, xlv, 162, 171
South Sea, 88b, 93b
U.S. financial industry, 162. See also asset prices; housing prices
Bulgaria: banking crises in, 354–55t
Brady bonds in, 83b
current account balance in, 244
de-dollarization in, 195
Burkina Faso, banking crises in, 355t
Burundi, banking crises in, 355t
businesses: bankruptcies in, 52, 59
default by, 251, 252f, 406n1
impact of banking crises on, 146
Cameroon, banking crises in, 355t
Canada: banking crises in, 355–56t, 355t
duration of crises in, 235, 237
inflation crises in, 185
Newfoundland under, 81, 81b–83b
trade during global crises, 264
Cape Verde, banking crises in, 356t
capital controls, 38, 66, 94, 205, 271f, 403n4
capital flow(s): global cycle of, in external default, 78–81, 79f
types of, 30–32
capital flow bonanzas: and banking crises, 157–58, 158t
definition of, 157, 401–2n18, 405n31
as indicators of crises, 217
in Second Great Contraction, 244
in U.S., 405n31
capital inflows: and banking crises, 157–58, 158t
data on, 42
and debt intolerance, 31–32
in external default, 79–80, 89, 398n15
as indicators of crises, 217
procyclical, 31, 77
types of, 31–32. See also specific types
capital market integration: and consumption volatility, 30, 395n11
and debt intolerance, 30–31
definition of, 30
risk-sharing benefits of, 30–31
capital markets, domestic, repression in, 66–67
capital markets, international: benefits of access to, 55
in Latin America in 1800s, 92, 93b–94b
reputation of borrowers in, 55–58
capital mobility: and banking crises, 155–56, 156f
data on, 344–47t
Carter bonds, 400n5
Case-Shiller housing price index, 207, 226, 404n6, 404n7, 405n29
Catholic Church, 89
Central African Republic, banking crises in, 356t
central banks: definition of debt of, 9b
in foreign exchange interventions, 394n12
in sequencing of banking crises, 271–72
this-time-is-different syndrome in, 291
Chad, banking crises in, 356t
children, transfer of debt to, 63
Chile: banking crises in, 356–57t
duration of crises in, 235, 237
foreign direct investment in, 58
graduation in, 287
liberalization in, 271
China: banking crises in, 204, 357t, 403n4
currency conversions in, 6–7
domestic debt in, 66, 124, 124f
external default by, xxx, 94, 98, 124, 124f
financial turbulence index for, 259
graduation in, 287
inflation crises after 1800 in, 182, 183t
Christianity, 69b
Citibank, 210
Civil War, American, 185
club, debtors’, 27–29, 29f, 284–87
clustering, xxvi, 145
of external defaults, 92, 94, 100
regional or global, 248
coercion, in domestic default, 175
coin currency. See metallic currency
Colombia: banking crises in, 159, 206, 225, 226, 228, 357–58t
duration of crises in, 235
external default by, 92
housing prices in, 159, 226
unemployment in, 228
colonies: enforcement of debt repayment in, 54
in financial turbulence index, 255
inflation crises in, 182, 183t
Spanish, 71b, 93b. See also independence
commercial real estate prices, 408n2. See also housing prices
commodity price(s): boom of 1970s in, 17–18
data on, 36
in external defaults, 77–78, 78f
as variable in data analysis, 42–43
different syndrome in, 17–18
as variable in data analysis, 42–43
confidence: in banking sector, xl–xli, 145
fickle nature of, xxxix–xlv
in repayment of debts, 58–59, 60–61
in this-time-is-different syndrome, xxxix, 15
Congo, Democratic Republic of the, banking crises in, 358t
Congo, Republic of the: banking crises in, 358t
inflation crises in, 185
construction industry, in global financial crises, 266–68, 268t
consumer price(s), before and after debt default, 131f
consumer price indexes: data on, 35–36, 296–301t
methodology for compiling, 36
consumption volatility, capital market integration and, 30, 395n11
contagion, international: of banking crises, 75
definition of, 241
future of, 246–47
high-velocity versus low-velocity, 201, 241
historical episodes of, 241–42, 243–44t
and partial default, 62
of U.S. subprime crisis, 240–47
contraction, definition of, 393n7. See also Great Contraction
corporate bankruptcies, 52, 59
corporate default, 251, 252f, 406n1
Costa Rica: banking crises in, 358t
Brady bonds in, 83b
external default by, 92, 98
cost-of-living indexes, data on, 35, 296–301t
Côte d’Ivoire: banking crises in, 358t
Brady bonds in, 85b
creditors: domestic versus external, incidence of default with, 133–36, 134f, 135t
French execution of, 87
rationality of, 62–63
reschedulings’ impact on, 90
rights of, in bankruptcies, 52
crisis transmission, 248. See also contagion
Croatia, banking crises in, 358t
cross-country synchronicity, of global financial crises, 260, 265–69
currency: of domestic public debt, 64, 106–8
seignorage revenues from, 119, 125, 174, 175, 400n7. See also foreign currency; metallic currency; paper currency
currency conversions/reforms, definition of, 6–7, 7t
currency crashes. See exchange rate crises
currency debasements, 174–79
of coins, 6, 7t, 174–79
data on, 36–37
definition of, xxvi, 6–7, 7t, 35, 175
early history of, xxvi, 87, 88b, 174–79
in financial turbulence index, 406n2
inflation and, 35, 174–79
during wars, 6, 177, 178f
current account balance: definition of, 404n8
as indicator of crises, 218, 219f
in Second Great Contraction, 244
before U.S. subprime crisis, debate over, 200, 208–15
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Page 35