Czechoslovakia, banking crises in, 358t
Czech Republic, banking crises in, 359t
dark matter, 212, 404n22
data, 34–47
on asset prices, 8
on banking crises, 10, 141–42
country coverage of, 43–47, 45–46t
on currency debasement, 36–37
for early warning system, 277–78
on exchange rates, 36–37, 189
on exports, 38–39
future needs in, 278–79
on GDP, 37–38, 120
global variables in, 43
international institutions’ role in, 278, 281–82
on national accounts, 39–40
on prices, 35–36
on public finances, 39
sources of, 34–35
traditional approach to, xxvii–xxviii
data, on public debt, 40–42
domestic, 40–41, 101, 103, 110, 340–43t
external, 40–42
gaps in, xxxi, xxxiii–xxxiv, xliv, 34, 137–38, 281–82
international institutions’ role in, 278, 281–82
sources on, 327–43
total, 41–42, 330–34t
database, global, xxvii–xxviii, 35
dating, 3–4
of asset price bubble collapses, 7–8
of banking crises, 8–10, 11t, 344–47t, 407n26
of currency debasements, 6–7
of domestic default, 11t
of exchange rate crises, 5–6
of external default, 10–13, 11t, 22, 23t
of inflation crises, 4–5. See also duration
debasement. See currency debasements
debentures: data on, 42, 328–29t
definition of, 42
debt. See specific types
debt accumulation: appearance versus reality of threats posed by, xxv
short-term versus long-term, in debt intolerance, 31–32
systemic risks of, xxv
debt collection, through military force, 54–55. See also repayment
debt crises (defaults), 51–67
avoidability of, 61
conditions before and after (See aftermath; run-up)
definition of, xxvi, 61–63
distribution of, xxvi–xxvii
early period of, 54
in financial turbulence index, 250
illiquidity versus insolvency in, 59–61
incentives for avoiding, 54–58, 65–67
incidence of, xxvi–xxvii, 67, 133–36
odious debt in, 63–64
partial (See partial default)
recommendations on responses to, 289
reschedulings as type of, 62, 90–92
theoretical underpinnings of, 51–67
time between, 67, 83
total/complete, 61. See also specific events and types
debt crisis of 1980s: contagion of, 246
repayment of debts in, 51–52
severity of, 256
this-time-is-different syndrome in, 17–18
debt crisis of 1990s: international institutions in, 94
this-time-is-different syndrome in, 19. See also Asian crises of 1997–1998
debt-deflation theory, 76
debt intolerance, 21–33
clubs in, 27–29, 29f
components of, 25–29
definition of, 21
and domestic public debt, 119–23
fiscal stimulus packages and, 33
graduation from, 28–30, 33, 193
implications of, 29–33
institutional failings in, 30–31
Institutional Investor ratings in, 26–29, 27t, 29f
ratios of external debt to exports in, 22, 23t, 24, 26, 27t
ratios of external debt to GDP in, 21–29, 23t, 24t, 25f, 27t, 33, 121, 122f
recovery from, 29–30, 33
regions of, 27–29, 29f
in serial default, 21, 29–33
thresholds in, 21–25, 32–33, 119–20
vulnerability, 25–29
debt markets: domestic, 65–67, 103–5
international, 68, 69b–71b
debtors’ club, 27–29, 29f, 284–87
debt repayment. See repayment
debt reversals: Brady bonds in, 83b–85b
identification of episodes of, 84b
debt stock, data on, 42
debt thresholds: in debt intolerance, 21–25, 32–33, 119–20
IMF on, 394n6
debt transfer, odious debt doctrine on, 63–64
default. See debt crises
default virgins, 44, 45–46t
deflation, 76
democracies, domestic public debt in, 65–66
Denmark: banking crises in, 141, 359–60t
inflation crises in, 185
deposit insurance: in banking crises, 143, 144–45
and crises of confidence, xl–xli
depreciation. See exchange rate crises
derivative contracts, 31–32, 172, 211
developing countries, middle-income versus low-income, 394n3. See also emerging market(s)
Dionysius of Syracuse, 174–75
disinflations, de-dollarization in, 191, 192f
Djibouti, banking crises in, 360t
dollarization, 191–97
debt intolerance and, 33
definition of, 33, 191
of domestic debt, 109b
after inflation crises, 180, 191–93, 192f
liability, 109b, 191
persistence of, 191–93, 192f
undoing of, 191, 193–97
domestic dollarization. See dollarization
domestic public debt, xxxi–xxxii, 103–27
average share of, in total debt, 41, 103–5, 104f, 105f
caveats regarding, 111–18
data on, 40–41, 101, 103, 110, 340–43t
definition of, xxxi, 9b, 64, 65
before and after external default, 123–24, 123f
foreign currency–linked, 9b, 64, 106–8, 108b–109b
ignoring of, in literature, xxxi, 109b, 110, 119, 124–25, 136–37
in inflation crises, 119, 124–27, 126t
interest rates on, 106, 107t
lack of transparency in, xxxi, 101, 137–38
maturity structure of, 105–6, 106f, 127, 400n11
repression and, 66–67, 106, 117
domestic public debt crises (default), 110–18
after 1750, 110–11, 112–16t
banking crises as form of, 143
data on, 40, 111
debt intolerance and, 119–23
de facto forms of, 111–17
definition of, 11t, 13–14
versus external default, seniority of, 128–38, 272
GDP before and after, 129, 130f, 132–33, 132t
incentives for avoiding, 65–67, 110–11
incidence of, xxxi–xxxii, 65, 111, 128, 133–36, 134f, 135t
through inflation, 65, 111–17, 175
inflation before and after, 129–33, 131f, 132t
magnitude of, 128–29
percentage of countries in (1900–2008), 111, 117f
in sequencing of crises, 272
theoretical underpinnings of, 64–67, 110
Dominican Republic: banking crises in, 360t
Brady bonds in, 83b–84b
external default by, 83b, 92, 98
dual exchange rate systems, 403n9
duration: of aftermath of crises, 224
of exchange rate crises, 6
of external defaults, 12–13, 80f, 81–83, 98
of Great Depression versus postwar crises, 234–37, 234f, 236f
of inflation crises, 4
international institutions’ impact on, 81–83. See also dating
early warning system, 277–81
data needed for, 277–78
housing prices in, 279–81
signals approach to, 279–81, 280t, 408n3. See also indicators
Eas
tern Europe: banking crises in, 206
contagion of crises in, 246
financial turbulence index for, 256
Economic Affairs, UN Department of, 41, 124f
economic factors, global: in data, 43
in external defaults, 77–81
economic growth: after banking crises, 165, 165f, 166f
debt intolerance and, 30–32
in debt reversals, 83b–84b
economic theory, 51–67
on banking crises, 143–47
on confidence, xxxix–xlv
on domestic public debt, 64–67, 110
on external public debt, 51–64
on odious debt, 63–64
Ecuador: banking crises in, 360–61t
Brady bonds in, 84b, 85b
external default by, 22, 23t, 94
Egypt: banking crises in, 361t
British invasion of, 54
as British protectorate, 81, 83b
debt reversals in, 84b
de-dollarization in, 403n10
external default by, 81, 92
elections, presidential, 53
El Salvador, banking crises in, 361t
EMBI. See Emerging Market Bond Index
emerging market(s): banking crises in, xxvi–xxvii, xxxii, 141–42, 147–55, 167–69, 223–24
debt intolerance in (See debt intolerance); debt thresholds of, 21–25, 32–33
defaults of 1930s in, 15–17
domestic public debt in, xxxi
external default in, xxx
financial turbulence index for, 256–57
fiscal stimulus packages in, 33
in middle-income versus low-income countries, 394n3
serial default in, xxvii
this-time-is-different syndrome in, 15–17
transition to advanced economies, 283
unemployment rates in, 228–29. See also specific countries
Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI), 280t, 395n8
enforcement of debt repayment: colonial, 54
legal approach to, 53, 56–57
military force in, 54–55
reputation approach to, 55–58, 65
supranational, lack of, 53
England: currency debasement in, 87, 175
domestic debt repayment by, 65
domestic default by, 87
external debt repayment to Italy by, 55, 56, 57, 69b–70b
external default before 1800 by, 70b, 87–89, 87t
Glorious Revolution in, 65, 70b
international debt markets in, development of, 69b–70b
in Latin American capital markets, 93b–94b. See also Britain; United Kingdom
Equatorial Guinea, banking crises in, 362t
equilibrium/equilibria: default versus no-default, 60–61
multiple, xlii–xliii, 60–61, 67, 144
equity prices: in aftermath of crises, 226, 228f
and banking crises, 161–62, 161f, 218, 218f, 226, 228f
bursting of bubbles in, 7–8
data on, 326t
duration of downturns in, 226
in financial turbulence index, 250
in global financial crises, 262
in Second Great Contraction, 239
Eritrea, banking crises in, 362t
Estonia, banking crises in, 362t
Ethiopia, banking crises in, 362t
Europe: banking crises in, 147, 149t, 152t, 154t
currency debasement in, 175–79, 176t, 177t, 178f
data coverage of, 43, 45–46t
domestic public debt in, 104f
external default in (See European external default); GDP during global crises, 262
housing prices in, 244
inflation crises in, 182, 183t, 185, 186t, 187, 188f
trade during global crises, 264. See also specific countries
European external default, xxx
before 1800, 86–89, 87t
in 1800s, 91t, 92
in 1900s and 2000s, 94, 96t
countries with no history of, 44, 45–46t
time spent in, since independence, 98, 99t
exchange rate(s): crises of confidence in, xliii–xliv
data on, 36–37, 189, 301–5t
dual, 403n9
fixed, xliii–xliv, 272–73
in sequencing of banking crises, 271–73
after U.S. subprime crisis, 222, 405n33
exchange rate crises (currency crashes), 189–97
aftermath of, 191–93
banks affected by, 145
confidence in, xliii–xliv
definition of, xxvi, 5–6, 7t
duration of, 6
in financial turbulence index, 256
graduation from, 284
indicators of, 279–81, 280t
inflation associated with, 180, 189–97, 272, 400n2
prevalence of, xxxiii
in sequencing of banking crises, 272–73
execution, of creditors in France, 87
expenditures, government, sources of data on, 314–19t
exports: data on, 38–39, 320–22t
in global financial crises, 264, 266, 266f, 267f, 269–70
ratios of external debt to, 22, 23t, 24, 26, 27t. See also trade
external private debt: in debt intolerance, 26
recent rise of, 399n4
external public debt: data on, 40–42, 328–39t
in debt intolerance, 21–26
definition of, 9b, 13
development of markets for, 69b–71b
interest rates on, 106, 107t
external public debt crises (default), xxix–xxxi, 68–100
before 1800, 86–89, 87t
in 1800s, 89–92, 91t, 400n6
in 1900s and 2000s, 92–100, 95t
in aftermath of crises, 232–33, 233f
banking crises associated with, 73–75, 74f, 232–33, 233f
clustering of, 92, 94, 100
connections between episodes of, 94–95
countries with no history of, 44, 45–46t
cycles and patterns of, 68–73, 77–81, 92, 94
dating of, 10–13, 11t, 22, 23t
debt ratios at time of, 120, 120t, 121f
definition of, 10–13, 11t, 68
versus domestic default, seniority of, 128–38, 272
domestic public debt in, 119–24, 127
duration of, 12–13, 80f, 81–83, 98
GDP before and after, 129, 130f, 132–33, 132t
global economic factors in, 77–81
incidence of, xxix–xxxi, 133–36, 134f, 135t, 147
indicators of, 73–81
inflation associated with, 75–77, 76f, 175, 400n2
inflation before and after, 129–33, 131f, 132t
lull in, from 2003 to 2009, 68, 71, 239
magnitude of, 128–29
in middle-income countries, 22, 23t
percentage of countries in (1800–2008), xxxivf, xxxv, 68–73, 72f
restructuring in, 12, 83b–85b
in sequencing of crises, 272
serial (See serial default)
theoretical underpinnings of, 51–64
universality of, xxx–xxxi, 86
vulnerability to (See debt intolerance)
external public debt ratios: to exports, 22, 23t, 24, 26, 27t
to GDP, 21–29, 23t, 24t, 25f, 27t, 33, 121, 122f
to revenue, 120–23, 120t, 121f, 122f
fairness, in odious debt doctrine, 64
fatigue, inflation, 106
FDI. See foreign direct investment
Federal Reserve, U.S.: and equity prices, 218
on housing prices, 212–13
lack of transparency in, 282
in Second Great Contraction, 146
target policy interest rate of, 43
in this-time-is-different syndrome, 291
fiat currency, 5, 35, 44, 179. See also paper currency
financial centers: data on, 323t
in definition
of global financial crisis, 260b
financial crises, 3–20
clustering of, xxvi, 145
conditions before and after (See aftermath run-up)
confidence in, role of, xxxix–xlv
cycles of, length of, xxvii–xxviii
damage caused by, xxix, xliv–xlv
definitions of, 3–14
early warning system for, 277
economic theory on, xxxix–xlv
indicators of (See indicators)
narrative versus quantitative approach to, xxvii
similarities among, xxv, 224–25
types of, xxvi, 249
unpredictability of, xxix, xlii–xliii. See also specific events and types
financial crisis of the late 2000s. See Great Contraction, Second
financial fragility, xxxix–xlv, 292
financial institutions, number of, before and after crises, 162, 163f
financial sector: growth of, in run-up to subprime crisis, 210
international regulation in, 145
overcapacity bubbles in, 162
in sequencing of banking crises, 271–72
shrinkage of 2008–2009 in, 162
this-time-is-different syndrome in, xxxiv
financial turbulence index, 248–59
at country level, 249–52
in defining global crises, 260–70
development of, 249–51
gaps in, 249–50, 251
at global level, 249, 252–57, 253f, 254f
at regional level, 249, 252, 257–59
types of crises in, 249, 251, 406n2
uses for, 248, 249
Finland: banking crises in, 159, 226, 231, 362–63t
duration of crises in, 235
housing prices in, 226
sovereign risk rating of, 233
First Great Contraction. See Great Contraction, First
fiscal effects: in aftermath of crises, 231–32, 231t, 232f
of banking crises, 142, 162–71
fiscal policy: countercyclical, 142, 169, 218, 224–25
procyclical, 31, 123, 283, 400n6
fiscal space, 189
fiscal surpluses, xlii
fixed exchange rates: crises of confidence in, xliii–xliv
currency collapse with, 272–73
foreign currency deposits, in de-dollarization, 193–96, 194f
foreign currency domestic debt: definition of, 9b
historical examples of, 64, 106–8, 108b–109b
foreign direct investment (FDI): debt intolerance and, 31–32
as incentive for repayment of debts, 58
preference for, versus other capital inflows, 31–32, 395n13
foreign exchange interventions: in Asian debt crisis of 1990s, 18
central banks in, 394n12
foreign lending. See international lending
France: banking crises in, 141, 150, 204, 363–65t, 363t
currency debasements in, 88b
duration of crises in, 235, 237
early international lending to, 54
external default before 1800 by, xxx, 65, 86–87, 87t, 88b
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Page 36