Rising Star

by David J. Garrow

  African American columnist Clarence Page came away from the conversation reminding readers that “hardly anyone knows much about” Barack, but there was no question he was “sounding very much like a candidate.” Columnist John Kass saw Barack sneak outside to smoke and realized “I’d never see Obama alone again” if he ran. At the Sun-Times, Barack said he would have “a pretty good chance of winning the nomination” over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, but conceded that his safety was “something that is on Michelle’s mind, and the minds of many of my friends.” Barack drolly added that “being shot, obviously . . . is the least attractive option.”

  Barack also met with ABLE’s group of black entrepreneurs and with éminences grises Newton Minow and Abner Mikva at Minow’s office. “What Barack wanted to talk about was his concern about the impact of a run on Michelle and the girls. He was worried that he would not be able to spend time with them, and that the campaign could be disturbing for them. That was the biggest question in his mind,” Minow recounted. He and Mikva had helped raise three daughters apiece, and both men told Barack they thought he should run. “We both said to him that, as fathers, we thought that if he was going to run for president, this was the best time,” because it was “better to be away when your daughters are very young than when they’re teenagers, because our experience is that when a daughter really needs a father is when they’re teenagers.” Barack welcomed their advice. “That’s very interesting. I’m going to tell that to Michelle.” Minow added, “Besides, if you’re elected, you’ll be with your family all the time, because you’ll all be living in the same place.” In retrospect, “I think he’d made up his mind before he ever asked us,” Minow explained. “I just think he wanted some reassurance,” as “I could see he wanted to do it.”47

  Illinois seatmate Dick Durbin told reporters he was optimistic about Barack running, and Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter, a Chicagoland native, heard reliable chatter that there were “certainly no red flags” from Michelle. Barack invited David Plouffe to his South Greenwood home one night to ask him to become campaign manager. “I won’t make a final decision until the Hawaii trip. But I think it is all but a certainty that I’ll run,” Barack told him. Plouffe needed to mull the impact that job would have on his own young family, and the day before the Obamas headed to Honolulu, Barack met with Plouffe, Axelrod, and Gibbs at Axelrod’s office. “I am 90 percent certain I am running. Maybe even higher. You guys should proceed quietly as if I am, and keep making progress on planning and sizing up potential personnel. . . . I want to mull it over a bit more while I’m away” and “when I get back in early January, I’ll give you the final green light.”

  As a Wall Street Journal story noted, “the grass roots excitement” about an Obama candidacy, exemplified by Barack’s “rock-star-like reception last week in New Hampshire,” forced Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign to consider how to respond if Barack did run. Even two months earlier, top strategist Mark Penn had called Barack “the biggest” potential surprise in the race, and now he gave Clinton an eleven-page memo, warning that “the national press is relatively hostile,” “want to be king makers,” and are looking for “someone ‘new’ who can be their own.” Thus “Obama represents a serious challenge because at least for the moment he represents something big—an inspirational movement. But the more you analyze what he says, the more you wonder what is behind the hype. No big original ideas. No incredible accomplishments for others, only for himself. No one could fill the expectations that have been built up for him” and “all politics is an expectations game.” Clinton’s campaign should “research his flaws, hold our powder, see if he fades or does not run. Attacking him directly would backfire. His weakness is that if voters think about him [for] five minutes, they get that he was just a state senator and that he would be trounced by the big Republicans,” because “Obama has not the experience to be a serious challenger to” Republican John McCain.

  Calling for Obama to run but echoing Penn, New York magazine political writer John Heilemann observed that “for all his promise, Obama is basically an empty vessel.” In the Senate, “the legislation he has offered has been uniformly mundane, marginal, and provincial.” Barack’s second bill to pass Congress—providing $104 million to promote democracy in the Congo—would be signed into law three days before Christmas without ceremony and with hardly a mention in the press. “How many times has he used his megaphone to advance a bold initiative or champion a controversial cause?” Heilemann asked. “Zero.” The excitement about Barack “isn’t issue-based: It’s stylistic. His popularity is rooted in his calm, consensus-seeking deliberative demeanor and in his calls to common purpose.”48

  In Honolulu, Barack, Michelle, and their daughters, plus Chicago buddies Marty Nesbitt and Eric Whitaker, stayed at the Hyatt Regency in Waikiki. On December 19 Maya Soetoro-Ng told an AP reporter that Barack is “going to make his decision here and announce it to us.” Playing almost daily at the Olomana Golf Links in Waimanalo, “it’s a much needed time for reflection” for Barack, Maya explained. “He’s got to figure out what he’s going to do,” and “I think he’s trying to reconnect with family and get away from the excessive demands of his schedule.” Maya said that she had “discussed the pros and cons of running for president” with her brother, “but he hasn’t indicated his decision yet.” On December 24 an unwelcome Chicago Tribune story highlighted how a prized internship in Barack’s Senate office had gone to a daughter of Joseph Aramanda, who in 2004 had contributed $10,000 of Tony Rezko’s money to Barack’s Senate campaign. Other reports showed Barack tied for the lead with other Democratic contenders in early polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. David Plouffe called Barack to accept his offer to manage the campaign, but over the phone “I thought I was hearing a guy experiencing huge second thoughts,” Plouffe remembered. “He said he was still much more likely than not but would need to spend more time thinking about it during the remaining days of his vacation.” Staying in a huge Waikiki hotel had turned out to be a mixed blessing, for now scores of strangers recognized Barack, even in Honolulu. “I really can’t go down the street. This feels different,” Barack told Plouffe, who replied that if Barack ran, “your life is going to change forever. You’ll lose all privacy.”

  Michelle got her husband to once again promise he would quit smoking if he ran, but Barack spent as much time golfing as focusing on his big decision. Playing at Waialae Country Club on December 27, Barack “was very relaxed and he had a great time on the golf course,” club president and state appellate judge James Burns told the Advertiser for a story headlined “Obama’s Visit All About Golfing, Not Presidency.” “He had some good shots and some bad shots. He’s very friendly and everyone wanted to say hello to him, meet him and take pictures with him.” By phone with Valerie Jarrett in Chicago, Barack signaled that he was leaning strongly toward a run, saying “this is pretty much done,” but Maya now declined to tell the AP that any decision would be made while Barack remained in Hawaii, explaining that “the world will find out soon enough.”49

  By New Year’s Day, 2007, Barack and his family were back in Chicago. In the Sun-Times, African American columnist Laura Washington advocated “run, Barack, run,” and on Tuesday, January 2, Barack turned up unannounced at David Axelrod’s office. “I think I want to do this,” but he had still not decided for sure: “I’m going to give it a few more days.” David said, “My main concern is that you’re not obsessive enough to run for president,” that “you may be too normal to run.” Leaving Axelrod’s office, Barack ran into Forrest Claypool. “It may not be exactly the time I would pick,” Barack remarked, “but sometimes the times pick you.” Speaking with Plouffe, Axelrod thought a final decision remained uncertain, but during a January 3 podcast in which Barack called any “surge” of U.S. forces in Iraq “a chilling prospect,” he said his two weeks in Hawaii had left him feeling “renewed and refreshed.”

  On January 4 Barack returned to Washington, telling one journalist he belie
ved “there is a weariness with the ideological battles and cultural wars of the past,” especially given how George W. Bush’s presidency “has been the most ideological administration in my lifetime, even more so than” Ronald Reagan’s. Along with other senators, Barack met with Bush at the White House to express strong opposition to any “surge” in Iraq. “I said definitively that I thought it was a bad idea,” Barack told reporters. To Pete Rouse, Barack said he was close to a final decision. “I’ve decided to do it, you can plan that we’re going to do it, but don’t do anything yet because I want to go home to Chicago this weekend and make sure I don’t have buyer’s remorse.” In his own mind, “the way I thought about it was more of a sense of duty” to run, Barack explained. “It was more the sense of, given what’s been given to me, I should probably just give it a shot and see whether in fact there’s something real there.” In retrospect, “I gave myself 25 percent odds, maybe 30,” but absent a run he would face continued boredom in the Senate. A conference call was scheduled with all of Barack’s closest family members—Maya, Auma, Craig and Kelly Robinson—plus Marty Nesbitt, to alert them to the upcoming news. “Okay. I think we’re going to do this. It looks like this thing is going forward. But before we go for sure, I feel obligated to let you guys know how considerably hard this is going to be on all of you.” No one replied until Auma broke the silence with “I think this is wonderful,” and everyone agreed.

  Late that Saturday night Barack phoned David Plouffe: “It’s a go.” Then he called Axelrod: “Axe, I just called Plouffe and told him it’s a go.” On Sunday Barack called Tom Daschle to give him the confidential news, and plans were made for Barack and Michelle to make a quick, unpublicized trip to Nashville to speak with former vice president Al Gore and his wife Tipper about the rigors of a race.50

  In Washington, reporters who showed up for a press conference on ethics legislation instead sought Barack’s reaction to a People magazine photo spread titled “Beach Babes” that included a picture of a shirtless, clearly fit Barack taken on some Hawaiian beach. “I really appreciate you toting that around,” an “uncharacteristically flustered” Obama told them. “It’s embarrassing,” he added. “It’s paparazzi. Stop looking at it.” Robert Gibbs wisecracked that next on Barack’s schedule was “photo shoot on South Beach,” but instead Barack made a quick trip to Manhattan to speak at the annual dinner of Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Wall Street Project. “I owe him a great debt,” Barack told the crowd. “I would not be here had it not been for 1984, had it not been for 1988,” the two times Jackson had run for president.

  Meeting privately in Washington with his top aides, Barack stressed that “We’re all in this together. We’re going to rise or fall together. No sharp elbows. No big egos. I want us to be a team,” and “I want a campaign that is buttoned up like a business,” with “no drama” and “no leaks.” Reporters gleaned that David Plouffe would be the campaign manager if Barack went forward, but no word that the actual decision to run already had been made reached reporters. Barack met privately with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prior to her testimony before the Foreign Relations Committee to defend President Bush’s “surge” in Iraq. At the hearing, Barack bluntly challenged her. “Essentially, the administration repeatedly has said, ‘We’re doubling down. We’re going to keep on going. You know, maybe we lost that bet, but we’re going to put a little more money in, and because now we’ve got a lot in the pot, and we can’t afford to lose what we’ve put in the pot.’ And the fundamental question that the American people have and I think every senator on this panel, Republican and Democrat, are having to face now is at what point do we say ‘enough’?” Barack asked.

  Appearing on CBS’s Face the Nation, Barack said, “we’ll be making an announcement fairly soon” about 2008, and the next morning, prior to an MLK holiday event in south suburban Harvey, Barack updated it to “very soon” while complaining about the People picture. “Finding out that there was a photographer lurking in the bushes while I was playing on the beach with my kids is a source of concern.” With even the local Daily Southtown calling Harvey a “corruption-plagued, crime-ridden town,” Barack took the opportunity to lecture city officials that public office was not supposed to be “a place where they can help their family and their friends instead of helping the people who elected them. We don’t need that kind of leadership. You want to make a lot of money, go start a business. Don’t run for office.”51

  Twenty-four hours later, on January 16, Barack finally declared his candidacy via a three-minute Web video, with a formal announcement set for February 10 in Springfield. “I certainly didn’t expect to find myself in this position a year ago,” Barack admitted. Emphasizing “how hungry we all are for a different kind of politics,” he noted that “today our leaders in Washington seem incapable of working together in a practical, commonsense way. Politics has become so bitter and partisan, so gummed up by money and influence, that we can’t tackle the big problems that demand solutions.” Above all, “we have to change our politics and come together around our common interests and concerns as Americans.” The New York Times called the video “a blue-sky plan of optimism, offering few specifics,” but Barack told the Times’ Jeff Zeleny that “one thing that I’m convinced of is that people want something new.” Speaking with Zeleny again the next day, Barack said that “there are moments in American history where there are opportunities to change the language of politics or set the country’s sights in a different place, and I think we’re in one of those moments.” Barack paused. “Whether I’m the person to help move that forward or somebody else is, is not for me to determine.”

  The Washington Post welcomed Barack’s candidacy by commending “his willingness to try to understand rather than to dismiss the arguments of the other side.” In Chicago, the Tribune’s John Kass warned that Barack was an “empty vessel,” and when Barack fulsomely endorsed Mayor Richard M. Daley for reelection, one opinionated reporter said the move “puts to rest any doubt that Obama is anything but at the center of the same old machine.” Capitol Fax’s Rich Miller expressed amazement at what was happening. “This Obama phenomenon is not rational in any form. It is, in fact, almost completely irrational . . . the average Obama supporter knows very little about the man he or she adores,” but “the more exposure he gets, the more people swoon over him.” Several national commentators noted how Barack, like retired general Colin Powell a decade earlier, “is a child of immigration” who “doesn’t sound or look too black” and had “succeeded at a prestigious white institution.” Indeed, unreported November 1996 nationwide exit polling data showed that had Powell, rather than Kansas senator Bob Dole, been the Republican nominee challenging President Bill Clinton, Powell’s 50 percent of the vote would have easily defeated Clinton. Thus “America has for some time been ready to elect a black president,” and Eric Krol of the suburban Daily Herald warned that Barack’s “opponents would be foolish to underestimate him. His ability to inspire a popular groundswell among regular people could well carry him to his party’s nomination.”52

  Attending Sunday’s NFC championship game, in which the Chicago Bears defeated the New Orleans Saints 39–14, Barack told friends that if he could win the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on January 3, 2008, then “I’m credible.” That was David Plouffe’s view too. “We thought we had a path to the nomination, but it was a very narrow path,” Plouffe explained. “We had to win Iowa.” Yet Barack’s four-person campaign team was starting totally from scratch. Working from a temporary office on Connecticut Avenue NW before securing permanent office space in Chicago, staffers purchased a wireless router and then a printer soon after Barack’s Web video went live. “It was definitely seat of the pants,” Plouffe recalled. “It was a start-up in every sense of the word,” and “getting the campaign up and running was a huge challenge.”

  For Barack, President Bush’s decision to ramp up U.S. military efforts in Iraq remained a top target. “I originally opposed this war precisely becau
se I thought that, once we were in, it would become a morass,” he remarked on CBS. At a D.C. symposium, Barack also vowed that “universal health care for every single American must not be a question of whether, it must be a question of how.” He declared, “I am absolutely determined that by the end of the first term of the next president we should have universal health care in this country.” Considering that “one out of four health care dollars is spent on non-medical costs, mostly bills and paperwork,” eliminating that morass was simply “a problem of political will.”

  On January 29 Barack joined other senators for a quick trip to New Orleans to hold a hearing on reconstruction since Katrina. The next day, he introduced his own bill to address the Iraq war, calling for the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces to begin on May 1 and to be fully complete by March 31, 2008. In a lengthy interview with a young blogger, Barack cited his Iraq proposal, his health care stance, and the need to eliminate partisan gerrymandering, “which discourages the kind of robust debate that we need to have. If people feel like this is a 90 percent Democratic district or a 90 percent Republican district, then at a certain point folks start opting out of the process.” But health coverage was uppermost in his mind. “You have to run on the notion that by the end of your first term you’re going to have health care for all. That then would give you, should you win, a mandate, and you have to use that mandate quickly in the first one hundred days before the corrosive process of Washington starts setting in.”53

  On February 1, Barack’s nascent campaign notified the Federal Election Commission that both major parties’ presidential nominees should commit to accept public funding and limit their general election spending. This would “facilitate the conduct of campaigns freed from any dependence on private fund-raising,” but New York Times reporter David K. Kirkpatrick predicted that “a candidate with a much bigger bank account at the start of the general election would be reluctant to relinquish that advantage.” The next day Barack spoke at a student-organized rally at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, that drew thirty-five hundred young people. That weekend Barack’s staff moved from D.C. to Chicago, with David Plouffe explaining that “it was brutal to try to get this set up and running in a matter of weeks. We had to find office space, we had to get accounts up and running, we had to raise some initial seed money, we had to get staff hired.” An initial fund-raiser was scheduled at Chicago’s Hyatt Regency for the day after Barack’s Springfield announcement, and a second was set for Beverly Hills nine days later. New staffers were told that discipline was paramount. “The culture of the organization from the get-go was, a leak could not be tolerated,” and if one occurred, Plouffe warned, “corrective action” would be taken.