The Human Tide

by Paul Morland

  19. Guardian, 13 February 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/13/italy-is-a-dying-country-says-minister-as-birth-rate-plummets (impression: 13 November 2017).

  20. Morland, Demographic Engineering, pp. 17–20.

  21. Ibid., p. 36.

  22. Gaidar, p. 242.

  23. The Local, 23 September 2016, https://www.thelocal.it/20160923/the-real-reasons-young-italians-arent-having-kids (impression: 14 February 2018)

  24. UK Office for National Statistics, 2015.

  25. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions.

  26. Washington Post, 8 December 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/us-life-expectancy-declines-for-the-first-time-since-1993/2016/12/07/7dcdc7b4-bc93-11e6-91ee-1adddfe36cbe_story.html?utm_term=.25ef71e054e3 (impression: 13 November 2016).

  27. Jackson and Howe, p. 67.

  28. Navarro, p. 38.

  29. Ibid., p. 92.

  30. Ibid., pp. 92–3, 97.

  31. Gaquin and Dunn, p. 26.

  32. Navarro, p. 93.

  33. Passell et al.

  34. Smith and Edmonston, p. 35.

  35. Waters and Ueda, p. 18.

  36. Meacham and Graybeal, p. 6.

  37. Independent, 7 November 2016, http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-us-elections-hillary-clinton-race-hispanic-black-vote-white-americans-fear-minority-a7402296.html (impression: 13 November 2017).

  38. Pew Research, 19 November 2015, http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/(impression: 14 February 2018).

  39. Goodhart, p. xxviii.

  40. Byron, p. 78; Düvell, p. 347

  41. Goodhart, p. xxix.

  42. UK Office for National Statistics, 2012.

  43. Sunak and Rajeswaran, pp. 7, 25.

  44. Coleman, pp. 456, 462.

  45. Brouard and Tiberj, pp. 1–2.

  46. Cyrus and Vogel, p. 131.

  47. Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012–13.

  48. Jackson and Howe, p. 190.

  49. Haas.

  Chapter 7: Russia and the Eastern Bloc from 1945

  1. Gorbachev, p. 155.

  2. Ibid., p. 171.

  3. Ibid., pp. 10, 155.

  4. Jones and Grupp, p. 75.

  5. Weber and Goodman, p. 289.

  6. Lutz, Scherbov and Volkov, p. 143.

  7. Gray, p. 19.

  8. Ibid., p. 24.

  9. Lewis et al., p. 271.

  10. Gaidar, p. 253; UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions: Life Expectancy.

  11. Lewis et al., p. 285.

  12. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions: Infant Mortality.

  13. Haynes and Husan, p. 117.

  14. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions: Fertility.

  15. Coale et al., pp. 112–13.

  16. Lewis et al., p. 278.

  17. Ibid.

  18. Szporluk, p. 29.

  19. Lewis et al., p. 149.

  20. Anderson and Silver, pp. 164–5.

  21. Szayna, p. 10.

  22. Besmeres, p. 71.

  23. Szayna, p. vi.

  24. Ibid., pp. 279–5.

  25. Brezhnev and Tikhonov, pp. 373–4.

  26. Zakharov, p. 921.

  27. Botev, p. 700.

  28. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  29. See for example Kanaaneh, pp. 83, 108.

  30. Zakharov, p. 936.

  31. Ibid., pp. 918–19; Perelli-Harris and Isupova, p. 151.

  32. Perelli-Harris and Isupova, p. 146.

  33. Ibid., p. 931.

  34. Ibid., p. 936.

  35. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  36. Haynes and Husan, p. 152.

  37. Pearce, p. 125.

  38. Haynes and Husan, p. 163.

  39. Ibid., p. 166.

  40. New York Review of Books, 2 September 2014, http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2014/09/02/dying-russians/(impression: 13 September 2017).

  41. Eberstadt, Russia’s Demographic Disaster.

  42. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  43. Ibid.

  44. Eberstadt, ‘Dying Bear’.

  45. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  46. Rozanova, p. 36.

  47. Al Jazeera, 14 February 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/02/death-throes-russia-iconic-countryside-170207084912286.html (impression: 13 September 2017).

  48. Putin, p. 385.

  49. Szporluk, p. 34.

  50. CIA World Fact Book, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2075.html (impression: 14 September 2017).

  51. Ibid.

  52. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 24.

  53. BBC, 2012.

  54. Rozanova, p. 44.

  55. International Business Times, 23 July 2017, http://www.ibtimes.com/moscow-largest-muslim-city-europe-faithful-face-discrimination-public-authorities-2020858 (impression: 13 September 2017).

  56. Bhrolgháin and Dyson, p. 15.

  57. Ceterchi et al., pp. 54–5.

  58. Ibid., p. 54.

  59. Bhrolgháin and Dyson, p. 10.

  60. King.

  61. Judah, pp. 152, 155.

  62. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 25.

  63. Slack and Doyon, p. 158.

  64. New Internationalist, 24 June 2015, https://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2015/06/24/ghostly-bulgaria (impression: 13 September 2017).

  65. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  Chapter 8: Japan, China and East Asia

  1. Novikoff-Priboy, pp. 214, 242.

  2. Knight and Traphagan, p. 6.

  3. Macfarlane, pp. 31–2.

  4. Reinhard, p. 557; Cole, p. 399.

  5. Nakamura and Miyamoto, p. 233.

  6. Reinhard, p. 558.

  7. Drixler, pp.18–19, 33, 124.

  8. Cornell, p. 211.

  9. Obuchi, p. 331.

  10. Ishii, p. 24.

  11. Tauber, p. 41.

  12. Ishii, p. 60.

  13. Chamberlain, p. 432.

  14. Ibid., p. 433.

  15. Ransome, pp. 206, 226, 227.

  16. Tauber, pp. 233, 286.

  17. Cole, p. 397.

  18. Ibid., p. 405.

  19. Reinhard, p. 566.

  20. Cole, p. 413.

  21. Ishii, p. 163.

  22. Saito, p. 129; Tolischus, p. 75.

  23. Reinhard, pp. 567–8.

  24. Tolischus, p. 75.

  25. Marshall, pp. 95–6.

  26. Diamond, Lesser Breeds, p. 12.

  27. Tauber, pp. 233–5.

  28. Coulmas, p. 5.

  29. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  30. Japan Times, 6 June 2013.

  31. MacKellar et al., p. 50.

  32. Business Insider UK, 22 February 2016, http://uk.businessinsider.com/how-japan-government-solving-sex-problem-2016-2?r=US&IR=T (impression: 26 July 2017).

  33. Guardian, 20 October 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/20/young-people-japan-stopped-having-sex (impression: 26 July 2017).

  34. Ibid.

  35. Cornell, p. 30; UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  36. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  37. Pearson, p. 117.

  38. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  39. Ibid.

  40. Japan Times, 6 June 2013.

  41. Knight and Traphagan, p. 10.

  42. Coulmas, p. 47.

  43. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions.

  44. MacKellar et al., p. 39.

  45. Ogawa et al., p. 136.

  46. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions.

  47. New York Times, 23 August 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/24/world/a-sprawl-of-abandoned-homes-in-tokyo-suburbs.html (impression: 26 July 2017).

  48. LA Times, 10 July 2016, http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-japan-population-snap-story.html (impression: 26 July 2017).

  49. Slate, 26 June 2015, http://
www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/roads/2015/06/kodokushi_in_aging_japan_thousands_die_alone_and_unnoticed_every_year_their.html (impression: 26 July 2017).

  50. Coulmas, p. 14.

  51. Trading Economics.

  52. UN Population Division, 2015 Revisions.

  53. Ho, p. 4.

  54. Geping and Jinchang, p. 14.

  55. Ho, p. 282.

  56. Fairbank and Goldman, p. 169.

  57. Reinhard, p. 553.

  58. Ho, p. 282; Geping and Jinchang, p. 15.

  59. Nakamura and Miyamoto.

  60. Osterhammel, p. 122.

  61. Tien, p. 81.

  62. Ibid., p. 16.

  63. Ho, p. 42.

  64. Ibid., p. 45.

  65. White, p. 49.

  66. Dikötter, p. 13.

  67. White, pp. 44–5.

  68. Dikötter, p. 320.

  69. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  70. White, pp. 44–5.

  71. Ibid., p. 73.

  72. Cho, p. 62.

  73. Ming, p. 10.

  74. Cho, p. 63.

  75. Greenhalgh, p. 31.

  76. The Economist, 23 September 2017, p. 61.

  77. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  78. Rashid et al., p. 699.

  79. Greenhalgh.

  80. The Economist, 19 August 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/16846390 (impression: 27 July 2017).

  81. LifeSite, March 2017, https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/she-was-dragged-from-her-home-and-forced-to-abort.-shes-now-shaming-the-chi (impression: 27 July 2017).

  82. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  83. Jackson et al., pp. 2, 10.

  84. Greenhalgh, p. 1.

  85. Guardian, 2 November 2011, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/02/chinas-great-gender-crisis (impression: 27 July 2010).

  86. The Economist, 10 February 2018, p. 55.

  87. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  88. See Morland, Demographic Engineering.

  89. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  90. Globe and Mail, 22 October 2014, https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/a-bleak-future-and-population-crisis-for-south-korea/article21249599/(impression: 28 July 2017).

  91. Bangkok Post, 23 May 2013, http://www.bangkokpost.com/learning/learning-news/372232/single-no-children-thailand-future (impression: 28 July 2013).

  Chapter 9: The Middle East and North Africa

  1. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  2. Shaw, p. 325.

  3. Ibid., p. 334.

  4. Karpat, p. 55.

  5. New York Times, 20 May 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/21/world/europe/21georgia.html (impression: 14 August 2017).

  6. Kévorkian, p. 535.

  7. Suny, p. 283.

  8. Ibid., p. 285.

  9. Pelham, p. 37.

  10. Reinhard, p. 449.

  11. Ibid., p. 461.

  12. Fenby, p. 352.

  13. Reinhard, p. 461.

  14. BBC News, 10 July 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3056921.stm (impression: 14 August 2017).

  15. Iliffe, p. 161.

  16. Baer, p. 14.

  17. Ibid., p. 25.

  18. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  19. Jones and Karim, p. 3.

  20. Abu Dawood, Hadith 2050.

  21. Quran 6:151.

  22. Jones and Karim, pp. 3–4.

  23. Kaufmann, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, pp. 121–2.

  24. Riddell, p. 82.

  25. Fargues, ‘Demography, Migration’, p. 19.

  26. Ibid., p. 23.

  27. Cairo Demographic Centre, p. 7.

  28. New York Times, 7 June 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/08/world/middleeast/iran-tehran-offers-incentives-to-middle-class-families-to-have-more-children-as-population-declines.html (impression: 14 August 2017).

  29. UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, pp. 59–60.

  30. Fargues, ‘Demography, Migration’, p. 22.

  31. Winckler; UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  32. UN Development Programme 2002, p. 85.

  33. UN Development Programme 2011, p. 18.

  34. Ibid., p. 40.

  35. Ibid., p. 53.

  36. Ibid., p. 56.

  37. UN Development Programme 2006, p. 74.

  38. Ibid., p. 85.

  39. Academic Ranking of World Universities, 2017.

  40. UN Development Programme 2002, p. 67.

  41. Ibid., p. 3.

  42. UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, p. 66.

  43. Urdal.

  44. Kaufmann, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, pp. 130–1.

  45. UN Development Programme 2016.

  46. Bishara, p. 225.

  47. Freedom House.

  48. Bremmer.

  49. Urdal, p. 9.

  50. Mirkin, pp. 12, 14, https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/48347156/arab-spring-demographics-in-a-region-in-transition-arab-human-(impression: 26 June 2017).

  51. New York Times, 2 March 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html (impression: 15 August 2017).

  52. Al Fanar Media, 25 April 2016, https://www.al-fanarmedia.org/2016/04/study-explores-the-deep-frustrations-of-arab-youth/(impression: 15 August 2017).

  53. The Economist, 16 August 2016, https://www.al-fanarmedia.org/2016/04/study-explores-the-deep-frustrations-of-arab-youth/(impression: 15 August 2017).

  54. New York Times, 28 October 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-women.html (impression: 15 August 2017).

  55. BBC, 4 March 2016, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35999015 (impression: 15 August 2017).

  56. Kaufmann, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, p. 120; Pew Research Center 2015.

  57. Guardian, 28 May 2009, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2009/may/28/hay-festival-tutu-israel-palestine-solution (impression: 4 May 2018).

  58. Daniel Pipes Middle East Forum, http://www.danielpipes.org/4990/arab-israeli-fatalities-rank-49th (impression: 16 August 2017).

  59. Morland, Demographic Engineering, pp. 113–40.

  60. Tessler, p. 170.

  61. Pew Research, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/02/09/europes-jewish-population/(impression: 16 December 2017).

  62. Hacohen, p. 267.

  63. Jones, p. 221.

  64. Eshkol cited in Bird, p. 219.

  65. Ben-Gurion cited in Pearlman, p. 240.

  66. Fargues, ‘Protracted National Conflict’, p. 452.

  67. Peritz and Baras, pp. 113–14.

  68. Derived from Goldschneider, pp. 113–14.

  69. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions; UN Social Indicators: Literacy.

  70. Pedersen et al., p. 16.

  71. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 129.

  72. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  73. Morland, ‘Defusing the Demographic Scare’, https://www.haaretz.com/1.5049876 (impression 26 June 2018); Morland, ‘Israel’s Fast Evolving Demography’, https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-Ed-Contributors/Israels-fast-evolving-demography-320574 (impression 26 June 2018); Morland, ‘Israeli Women Do It By Numbers’, https://www.thejc.com/israeli-women-do-it-by-the-numbers-1.53785 (impression: 26 June 2018); Morland, Demographic Engineering.

  74. Tablet, 11 July 2017, http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-life-and-religion/239961/saying-no-to-kids (impression: 16 August 2017).

  75. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 122.

  76. See for example Lustick.

  Chapter 10: Nothing New Under the Sun?

  1. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  2. Ibid.

  3. Martin, p. 169.

  4. Committee on Population and Development, p. 101.

  5. Martin, p. 196.

  6. Ibid., p. 195.

  7. La Ferrara et al.

  8. Holl
erbach and Diaz-Briquets, pp. 4, 6, 9.

  9. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  10. Morland, Demographic Engineering, pp. 143–9.

  11. Washington Post, 27 January 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/27/even-before-trump-more-mexicans-were-leaving-the-us-than-arriving/?utm_term=.70340b7aed5e (impression: 17 August 2017).

  12. Texas Standard, 28 February 2017, http://www.texasstandard.org/stories/why-are-mexicans-leaving-the-us-in-droves/(impression: 17 August 2017).

  13. Guardian, 24 May 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/24/india-is-worlds-most-populous-nation-with-132bn-people-academic-claims (impression: 18 August 2017).

  14. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  15. Morland, Demographic Engineering, p. 59.

  16. Desai, p. 3.

  17. Morland, Demographic Engineering, pp. 17–21.

  18. Iyer, pp. 3, 10.

  19. Times of India, 22 January 2015, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Muslim-population-grows-24-slower-than-previous-decade/articleshow/45972687.cms (impression: 20 November 2017).

  20. Zubrin, pp. 172–3.

  21. Sen, pp. 42, 77–9.

  22. BBC News, 14 November 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790 (impression: 18 August 2017).

  23. Population Research Institute, 24 June 2014, https://www.pop.org/a-once-and-future-tragedy-indias-sterilization-campaign-39-years-later/(impression: 18 August 2017).

  24. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  25. BBC News, 14 March 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-21783076; UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  26. Stats SA, 25 August 2016, http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=8176 (impression: 18 August 2017).

  27. NPR, 9 July 2012, http://www.npr.org/2012/07/09/156375781/botswanas-stunning-achievement-against-aids (impression: 18 August 2017).

  28. Guardian, 8 March 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/datablog/2016/mar/08/contraception-and-family-planning-around-the-world-interactive (impression: 14 August 2017).

  29. VOA, 30 December 2014, https://www.voanews.com/a/in-kenya-family-planning-is-an-economic-safeguard/2579394.html (impression: 15 September 2014).

  30. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.

  31. Ibid.

  32. Iliffe, p. 131.

  33. Segal, pp. 56–7.

  34. BBC News, 21 August 2017, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/lagos (impression: 21 August 2017).

  35. Ibid.

  36. Jackson and Howe, p. 54.

  37. Ibid., p. 65.

  38. FCA, Consumer Vulnerability: Occasional Paper 8, London, 2015, p. 9.

  39. Business Insider, 20 November 2015, http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/japan-developing-carebots-for-elderly-care-2015-11/(impression: 20 August 2017).