The Human Tide

by Paul Morland

  ISIS, 242, 247

  Islam: achievements, 237; pro-natalism, 233; role in Middle East and North Africa, 231–2; see also Muslims

  Israel: conflict with Palestinians, 245–7; fertility rate, 32, 250–1, 271; and Gaza Strip, 252–3; immigration, 248–9, 251; Russian Jews migrate to, 170, 184, 248; territories, 252; water supply and consumption, 238; see also West Bank

  Italy: emigration declines, 124; emigration to USA and Argentina, 87, 109; fertility rates, 137, 145–6; future population decline, 279; immigrants in France, 110; large family size, 86; low extra-marital births, 147; median age, 207; population increase, 124; population policy under Fascism, 124; settlers in North Africa, 228; women’s work handicaps, 147

  Ivory Coast see Côte d’Ivoire

  Jacobite rising (1745–6), 46

  Japan: adopts European practices, 120; centenarians, 208; death rate, 30, 33; defeat (1945), 211; defeats Russia (1904–5), 162, 195–6, 201; demographic transition, 196, 199; economic decline, 209; economy and population size, 24, 203; extra-marital births, 204; falling birth rates, 18, 205–6; fertility rate falls, 204–5, 207; government debt, 209; high life expectancy, 151, 206–7; inadequate early data, 197; infanticide in, 198; low emigration, 202; low marriage and sex relations, 205; median age and ageing population, 33, 207–9, 275–6; modernisation and rise to power, 196–201; modest immigration, 207; not seen as threat, 83; orderly society, 242; population trend, 14, 206–7; post-war baby boom, 204; post-war pacifist policy, 209; pressure on pensions system, 206; pro-natalist policies, 203; reliance on agricultural imports, 202; small family sizes, 206, 208; stable population, 197; status and education of women, 204–5; territorial expansion and settlement question, 203; as threat to Australia, 116–17; twentieth-century population increase, 199, 202; wartime losses, 203; Western alarm at rise of, 203

  Jefferson, Thomas, 64, 66, 134–5

  Jews: birth rate, 251; emigrate from Soviet Russia to Israel, 170, 184, 248; flee Germany and Italy, 110–11; immigrants in England, 46; migrants to USA, 77, 87, 108–9; numbers, 248; persecuted in Russia, 110; see also Israel; Zionism

  Jihadism, 240

  Kazakhstan, 171

  Kenya: female literacy, 270; fertility rate, 269; population growth, 36

  Keynes, John Maynard: The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 101–2

  Khameini, Ali, 234

  Khomeini, Ayatollah, 233

  Kingsley, Charles, 53

  Kipling, Rudyard, 83

  Kirk, Dudley, 112

  Knowlton, Charles: The Fruits of Philosophy, 74

  Koch, Robert, 73

  Kollontai, Alexandra, 122

  Korea: migrants in Japan, 202

  Korea, North: Soviet-style policies, 178

  Korea, South: falling birth rates, 222; fertility rate, 217; life expectancy, 222; median age, 223, 274

  Kosovo, 190

  Kravitz, Lenny: ‘Rock and Roll is Dead’ (song), 138

  Ku Klux Klan, 114

  Kurds: and Armenian massacres, 227; Turkish attitude to, 28

  Lagos, Nigeria, 272

  Lancet, The, 75, 90–1

  Latin America: Catholicism in, 262; cultural and geographical differences, 255–6; demographic pattern, 255–6; falling infant mortality, 256; fertility rates, 257–8; immigrants in USA, 143, 153–5; population growth, 260; Spanish empire in, 57–8

  Latvia: population decline, 279

  Lazarus, Emma, 135

  League of Nations: data collection, 107; formed, 130; mandates in Middle East, 228

  Lebanon: conflict in, 28

  Lenin, Vladimir I., 122, 165, 169

  Le Pen, Marine, 159

  Leroy-Beaulieu, Paul: La question de la population, 120

  Lesotho: fertility rate, 268

  LGBTQ: effect on demography, 282

  liberalism: decline after First World War, 122

  Libya: civil breakdown, 247; fertility rate, 230; median age, 275

  life expectancy: calculation, 283–4; and death rates, 33; increase, 5, 7–8, 107, 148–9; male–female differences, 180

  Lister, Joseph, 1st Baron, 73

  Lithuania: fertility rate, 148

  Lloyd George, David, 89, 120

  London: conditions in nineteenth century, 4–5, 72–3; differences in birth rates in boroughs, 90; sewage system and public hygiene, 73; suburbs develop, 45

  Lönne, Friedrich, 93

  Louisiana Purchase (1804), 65

  Luxembourg: economy, 24, 55–6

  McCain, John, 25

  McCleary, G. F., 112, 117, 119, 120; Race Suicide, 119

  McCoppin, Frank, 41

  McCormick, Katharine Dexter, 139

  MacDonald, Ramsay, 90

  Macedonia: average age, 16

  Malaysia: ethnic Chinese fertility rate, 217

  Malthus, Thomas: on China, 212; on conditions in USA, 65–6; on indigenous people, 59; Marx on, 174; on population growth and food supply, 11, 44–5, 52–3, 112, 131–2, 198; urges restraint and late marriage, 74; An Essay on the Principle of Population, 43–4, 129

  Manchukuo, 202

  Mandela, Nelson, 63

  Manstein, General Fritz Erich von, 128

  Mao Zedong, 213–15

  Maoris, 61

  Margaret Rose, Princess, 12

  Marx, Karl, 122, 174

  Marxism, 213, 218

  May, Theresa, 151

  Mbeki, Thabo, 268

  median age: global rise, 274–6

  Meinecke, Friedrich, 69, 93

  Meir, Golda, 142

  Merkel, Angela, 142, 159

  Mexico: demographic pattern, 260; immigrants in USA, 153–6, 260–1; migrants leave USA, 17, 260–1; standard of living improvement, 261; USA annexes north, 57, 65–6, 68

  Middle East: educational backwardness, 238–9; European imperialism in, 226; fertility rates, 230, 241; instability, 224, 226, 236–7, 241–3; League of Nations mandates, 228; median age, 225; misogyny, 239; peace prospects, 254; population growth, 239; prospective rise to power, 163; transition in, 229, 231; water supply, 239

  migration: effect on demography, 17, 29, 108

  Miliband, Ed, 111

  military power: and numerical advantage, 18–20

  modernisation (economic): and fertility rates and life expectancy, 22–3

  Modi, Narendra, 264

  Moldova, 191, 279

  Money, Sir Leo Chiozza, 120

  Morocco: fertility rate, 23, 249, 254; Jewish population, 248

  mortality rate see death rate

  Moscow: Muslim population, 185–6

  Mosley, Lady Cynthia, 75

  Mubarak, Hosni, 224

  Muslims: Bosnian, 189–90; fertility rates, 231, 234, 264; numbers, 245; refugees in Ottoman Empire, 226–7; in Russia, 171–2, 175, 185–6; in South Asia, 262–3; women’s status, 233, 238, 244

  Mussolini, Benito, 124

  Nagasaki, 211

  Nagorno-Karabakh, 177

  Napoleon I (Bonaparte), Emperor of the French, 19–20, 50, 79

  National Birth Rate Commission (Britain), 90

  National Council for Public Morals (Britain), 90

  Nazis: murders by, 122; population policy, 125

  New Zealand: baby boom, 136; European population and colonisation, 13, 46–7, 58–9, 61, 63; fertility rate, 144; food production, 61; immigrants, 156; low population increase, 119; non-Europeans excluded, 117–18

  Nicholas II, Tsar of Russia, 195

  Nietzsche, Friedrich, 45

  Nigeria: fertility rate, 270; population trend, 14, 272; urbanisation, 172

  Nixon, Richard M., 142

  North Africa: European colonialism in, 227–8; famine (1866–8), 229; infant mortality falls, 230; instability, 224, 236–7, 242–3; population growth, 230; transition in, 229

  Northern Ireland: Catholic minority, 27

  Notestein, Frank, 132, 135

  Novikov, Aleksey, 195

  Obama, Barack, 25, 155

  oil: in Middle East, 235

  Okie
, Howard Pitcher: America and the German Peril, 92

  Opium Wars (China–Britain), 210

  Orthodox religion: distribution and demographic patterns, 186–7, 190

  Orwell, George: on the poor, 149; Burmese Days, 126

  Oryol (Imperial Russian battleship), 195

  Oslo Accord (Israel–Palestinian), 252

  Ottoman Empire: in Balkans, 228; demographic data, 226–7; immigration, 227; population, 227

  Pakistan: birth rate, 231; Deobandi opponents of birth control, 232; fertility rate, 262–3; immigrants in UK, 157–8; life expectancy, 181, 265

  Palestinians: conflict with Israel, 239, 245–7; fertility rate, 250–2, 271; increasing median age, 253; life expectancy, 250; population increase, 249–50, 253

  Pasteur, Louis, 73

  pensions (old age), 152, 276

  Pevsner, Nikolaus, 111

  Philippines: median age, 276

  Phillips, John, 3

  Pill, the see contraceptive pill

  Pincus, Gregory, 139

  plague: reduced in England, 48; see also Black Death

  Plus Grande Famille, La (French society), 121

  Poland: Germans settle in, 125–6; immigrants in France, 110; median age, 275; migrants in France, 121; transition to capitalism, 189

  poor, the: conditions, 149–50

  population: and ethnicity, 112–13; and historical change, 7, 9–10; and international tensions, 94; post-First World War increase, 102–3; and racial quality, 112–15; stabilisation and ‘demographic transition’, 111, 132

  potato: as staple in Ireland, 52

  Protestants: fertility rates, 142, 146

  Puerto Rico: fertility rate, 269; median age, 275

  Putin, Vladimir, 178, 183

  Qaida, al-, 142

  Qatar: high per capita income, 237; immigration and population growth, 235

  Quebec: French in, 60; high fertility rate, 136; independence movement, 26

  Quiverfull movement (USA), 143

  Quran, Holy, 232

  race see ethnicity

  racism, 112–19, 121

  Ransome, Stafford, 200

  Reich, Emil: Germany’s Swelled Head, 91, 92

  religion: diversity in South Asia, 360

  Remennick, Larissa, 251

  retirement: age and pensions, 152

  Rhodes, Cecil, 68, 70, 127

  Riezler, Kurt, 94

  Robertson, John Mackinnon, 91

  Rohrbach, Paul, 92

  Roman Empire: population, 12

  Romania: ethnic Hungarians in, 28; fertility rate, 187–8; population changes, 188

  Roosevelt, Franklin D., 102

  Roosevelt, Theodore (‘Teddy’), 111–12

  Roses, Wars of the, 43

  Rubio, Marco, 156

  Rumbold, Joan, 3, 5, 8

  rural life: historic conditions, 4

  Russia (and Soviet Union): abortion legalised under Communists, 123, 168, 259; abortion rates reduced after Soviet era, 180; ageing leadership, 164–5; alcoholism, 180–1; anti-natalism, 178; childbearing age, 179; childless and single-child women, 179; deaths from diseases, 181; deaths from wars, famines and purges, 168–9; defeated by Japan (1904–5), 162, 195–6, 201; demographic transition, 167; ethnic Germans emigrate to Germany, 184; ethnic and regional differences, 170–2, 175–7, 184–5; fall in child death rates, 17, 171; female education, 167; fertility rates, 105–6, 123–4, 167, 178–80, 182–3, 207, 230–1; German fear of, 93–4, 98; industrial development, 93; influx of central Asians into towns and cities, 185; internal food supply, 96; Jewish emigrants to Israel, 170, 184, 248; life expectancy changes, 107, 169, 180–1, 207; little immigration and emigration, 170; male–female life expectancy differences, 283; median age, 166, 182, 185; migration to Siberia, 96; migration to USA, 77; Muslim population, 171–2, 175, 184–6, 227; population expansion, 69, 84–5, 93–4, 98, 104, 119, 168–9; population fall since Soviet period, 182, 207; post-war population growth rate, 169; as potential threat to Britain, 83; Putin proposes demographic changes, 184; remoteness of interior, 76; rise to power, 83–4, 127, 129, 163–5; rivalry with Anglo-Saxons, 71; Second World War with Germany, 127–8; Soviet collapse, 176–8; Soviet planned society and state control, 173–4; Soviet policy on population, 122–4; status of ethnic Russians/Slavs, 171–5, 177, 184–5; suicide rate, 181; under Bolshevik regime, 166–7; unrest in Caucasus, 177; urbanisation, 167, 170; war in Afghanistan, 165–6; wartime casualties and losses (1941–5), 204; women in workforce, 174

  Russo–Japanese War (1904–5), 162, 195–6, 201

  Rwanda: genocide (1994), 8; growing economy, 271

  Saleh, Ali Abdullah, 224

  San Francisco: population growth, 41

  Sanger, Margaret, 139

  Saudi Arabia: family size, 230; fertility rates, 235; immigrants, 235; oil resources, 235; status of women, 239, 244

  Sauvy, Alfred, 112

  Scandinavia: falling fertility rate, 144; out-of-marriage births, 146; small populations, 95

  Scotland: migration to England, 46; population growth, 51, 59

  Second World War: and Hitler’s obsession with population, 101; and war in Russia, 127–8

  secularisation, 142

  Seeley, J. R.: The Expansion of England, 68, 117, 127

  Serbs: anti-Muslim policy, 227; conflicts, 189–90; falling fertility rate, 189

  sex: and childbearing, 256; and family size, 281–2

  Sharon, Ariel, 252–3

  Siberia: Russian settlement, 96

  Sicilians: origins, 280

  Sierra Leone: infant mortality, 270

  Singapore: life expectancy table, 284–7

  Six Day War (1967), 247, 250, 252

  slavery and slave trade, 8, 66, 271–2

  Slovak republic, 189

  slums: disappear in England, 4

  Smith, Adam: on population size, 20, 218

  Snyder, Timothy, 59

  Social Darwinism, 89, 93

  Soltz, Aaron, 123

  South Africa: Apartheid, 64; as British imperial territory, 62; Dutch (Afrikaners) in, 62–3; ethnic birth rate differences, 27; European Jewish immigrants, 110; fall in fertility rate, 32; infant mortality, 268; life expectancy, 268; low contraceptive use, 269; median age, 16; prevalence of HIV and Aids, 268; rise of indigenous population, 228; status, 268; white/black population ratios, 63–4

  South Asia: demographic patterns, 261; life expectancy, 265; religious diversity, 262

  Soviet Union see Russia

  Spain: fertility rates, 137, 147; historic infant mortality, 3–4; immigrants in France, 110–11; immigrants from Latin America, 156; large family size, 86; Latin American empire, 57–8; low extra-marital births, 147; seen as backwater, 86

  Spanish flu: deaths from, 102–3

  Spectator (journal), 203

  Spender, J. A., 89

  Spengler, Oswald, 112

  Sri Lanka: ethnic differences, 28; fertility rate, 262; median age, 275

  Stalin, Josef, 123–4, 128, 169

  Stalingrad, Battle of (August 1942–February 1943), 127–8

  state, the: and economic power, 21–4

  Stoddard, Lothrop: The Rising Tide of Color Against White World-Supremacy, 114–15

  Stopes, Marie: advocates forced sterilisation of the unfit, 113; Married Love, 107

  student rebellions, 138

  Sudan: median age, 225

  Swaziland: fertility rate, 268

  Switzerland: average age, 16

  Sykes, Sir Mark, 102

  Sykes–Picot agreement, 102

  Syria: asylum seekers, 245; civil war and population, 243–4; median age, 18, 275

  Tacitus, 20

  Taiping rebellion (1850–64), 212

  Taiwan: fertility rate, 217

  Tajikistan: infant mortality, 171

  Tartars, 184–5

  Taylor, John, 88–9

  tempo effect, 145, 179

  Thailand: childlessness in, 223; fertility rate, 259, 278; median age, 223, 277;
women bear fewer children, 14

  Thatcher, Margaret, 142

  Tikhonov, Nikolai, 176

  Times, The: laments development of London suburbs, 45

  Timor Leste: fertility rate, 263

  Tocqueville, Alexis de, 129

  Tolstoy, Count Lev, 84–5

  total fertility rate (TFR), 289

  tribalism, 28

  Trump, Donald, 25, 29, 82, 155–6, 261

  Tunisia: Europeans in, 227–8; political situation, 242

  Turkey: democracy in, 241; economic rise, 240; immigrants in Germany, 156, 159

  Tutu, Desmond, Archbishop of Cape Town, 245

  UAE (United Arab Emirates): low death rate, 35

  Uganda: fertility rate, 270

  Ukraine: Hitler wishes to settle, 202

  Ulster: economic development, 54

  UNICEF, 269–70

  United Kingdom see Britain

  United Nations: data, 34

  United States of America: African Americans in, 65–7; ‘Anglo-Saxons’ in, 64, 70, 134, 153; annexes northern Mexico, 57, 65–6, 68; backwoods’ remoteness, 76; birth rate, 29–30; Catholic/Protestant fertility rates, 142; compared with world population, 162–3; concern for population quality and racial differences, 112–13; development of economic power, 22, 56; economic depression, 109–10; ethnic composition, 25, 279; fertility rates, 112, 134–5, 140; food production, 4; German immigrants, 65–6, 92; growing number of Mexicans leave, 156; Hispanic population, 66, 280; immigrants, 18, 41, 46–52, 66–7, 77, 86–8, 108; immigration policy and restrictions, 27, 60, 108–9, 113–14; Jewish birth rate, 251; life expectancy, 150, 206, 281; manpower in First World War, 97; median age, 150, 207; Mexican (and Latin American) immigrants, 143, 153–6, 260–1; military dominance, 162; native American numbers, 66; population increase, 83, 134–5; population in Second World War, 129; post-Second World War baby boom, 133–6; religious attitudes to sex and procreation, 143–4; rise as superpower, 127, 129–30; Scotch–Irish immigrants, 52–4; territorial expansion, 65; urbanisation, 134

  urbanisation: in Britain, 50, 72; effect on fertility rates, 107, 134, 167; in Europe and North America, 67; in Germany, 81; slowness in France, 50; in USA, 134

  Uruguay: ethnic Europeans in, 259

  Uzbekistan: fertility rates reduced, 180; infant mortality rate, 171; population growth, 176

  Vauban, Sébastien le Prestre de, 20

  Victoria, Queen: on childbirth, 76, 133; children, 15, 71