Understrike

by James Barrington

  ‘But could the west side of the ridge slip into the ocean?’

  ‘Of course it could. The power of a volcano is terrifying, and a major eruption anywhere could re-shape the local landscape. Just look at Vesuvius or Mount St Helens. On La Palma, the west side of the ridge could fall into the sea in a lump, or it could be blown off the side of Cumbre Vieja, or it could slide gently down into the water. It would all depend on the type and power of the triggering event.

  ‘But let me give you the reasons why I think the catastrophe theory is wrong. First, I mentioned the crack running along the top of the ridge of Cumbre Vieja. The dimensions as measured and reported in 1949 are exactly the same as the dimensions of the crack today, so that proves the ridge is not moving and hasn’t moved in well over half a century, which means it’s stable despite the initial slippage, and despite another eruption in the southern part of the island in 1971. Second, even if there was another sudden volcanic event that was strong enough to start it moving, the chances are that if the west side of the ridge did slide down, it would be a gradual process over a few hours or even days, and that would create waves of a much lower amplitude and power. Third, we don’t know that much about mega-tsunamis, but it’s certainly possible they wouldn’t be anything like as catastrophic as some people believe.’

  ‘Hang on a minute,’ Richter said. ‘What about the Boxing Day tsunami? That killed over a quarter of a million people. I’d say that was catastrophic by any standards.’

  ‘I’m glad you asked me that,’ Cross replied, ‘because it proves you’ve been paying attention. Just before one o’clock in the morning UTC, six in the morning local time, the third largest earthquake ever recorded since the invention of the seismograph took place off the west coast of Sumatra. The cause was the subduction of part of the Indian tectonic plate by the Burma Plate, and was the longest duration earthquake caused by faulting ever recorded, lasting almost ten minutes and measuring at least nine on the Richter scale. It was strong enough to make the entire planet vibrate by about half an inch, and earthquakes directly attributable to the event were recorded in Alaska, pretty much on the other side of the world.

  ‘The rupture that caused the tsunami was almost one thousand miles long, and the plate was displaced about fifteen metres. The distance the tsunami wave travelled to hit the Maldives was less than sixteen hundred miles and the waves, when they arrived, had a maximum height of less than three and a half metres. The distance across the Atlantic Ocean from the Canary Islands to the American East Coast is over three thousand miles, so if a similar displacement had occurred in the Canaries to the event off the coast of Sumatra, the probability is that the wave height would be no more than about one or two metres at the most when it struck America. Frankly, I doubt if most people would even have noticed it. And as I said, the Indian Ocean tsunami was caused by the third most powerful earthquake recorded in modern times.’

  ‘So in your opinion,’ Richter said, ‘even if the western part of Cumbre Vieja fell into the sea, it would have almost no effect on America?’

  ‘It’s not quite that simple,’ Cross replied. ‘The tsunami we’ve just been talking about was caused, in layman’s terms, by the displacement of a one thousand mile length of the seabed by about fifteen metres or fifty feet. That caused a wide but comparatively shallow wave to start travelling across the Indian Ocean. If Cumbre Vieja did collapse suddenly and catastrophically, that would be a point source for the resulting tsunami, and would without any doubt produce waves of a much higher amplitude than occurred in 2004. It would be like dropping a smallish mountain into the ocean, an entirely different scenario from the Boxing Day tsunami. I don’t suppose you’re an expert on hydrodynamics, otherwise you probably wouldn’t be talking to me, but it’s worth emphasizing that there have been a couple of sudden catastrophic collapses elsewhere in the world that have caused massive waves, though not technically mega-tsunamis, in confined areas, resulting in significant but very localized damage.

  ‘The first was at a place called Crillon Inlet in Alaska in 1958, where the wave height reached about seventeen hundred feet, caused by the local geography – but once the waves reached the open ocean they dissipated very quickly. The other was at the Vajont Dam in north-eastern Italy in October 1963, when a chunk of a mountain named Monte Toc fell into the water reservoir behind the new dam. About a fifth of the volume of water in the reservoir was forced over the top of the dam and flooded the Piave Valley below, killing over two thousand people. But those were both massive displacements of water in very confined areas, and in the open ocean I think things would be very different.’

  ‘So the short version,’ Richter said, trying to get the facts straight in his own mind, ‘is that you don’t believe this event, if it happened, would be as catastrophic as people have claimed?’

  ‘Personally, I don’t. On the other hand, I don’t take holidays in the Canary Islands or on the American East Coast, just in case.’

  Richter was still trying to work out whether or not that was a joke when the professor spoke again.

  ‘Anyway, just to finish off the story, as it were, the two earthquakes in July 1949 that opened up the crack were almost certainly the result of phreatic activity. The most convincing models suggest that water trapped within the volcano was superheated by the magma rising towards the surface, but the water was under so much pressure that it couldn’t vaporise in a phreatic eruption. But as the heating continued, the water needed to escape somewhere and the only available escape route was for it to travel along the flank of the ridge of Cumbre Vieja, and that caused both the two major earthquakes and the creation of the crack.’

  ‘I hope that helped, Richter,’ Richard Simpson said, when he came back on the line. ‘I had to haul Cross out of a conference at UCL to get him to speak to you. He wasn’t very impressed, not that I care.’

  ‘It did and it didn’t. He confirmed what I already thought I knew, so that’s closed one avenue of speculation. So now we have to look—’ Richter suddenly stopped talking as another thought struck him.

  In fact, three apparently unrelated thoughts struck him. He recalled the contents of a short article he’d read months earlier in a classified briefing document back in his office at Hammersmith; he remembered another two-word phrase he’d heard on the recordings Pavlov had made and at that instant he guessed what it was actually referring to, which he hadn’t realized before, and he suddenly knew exactly why the unidentified Russian in the dacha had come up with his remark about the offer to help.

  ‘Richter? Are you there? Richter? Bloody useless phone. What’s happening?’

  ‘I’m here,’ Richter said, thinking fast and speaking slowly, ‘and I finally think I know what’s going on.’

  ‘You do? What?’

  Richter outlined the idea that had struck him moments earlier.

  ‘Are you sure? It sounds bloody unlikely to me.’

  ‘It’s the only scenario that makes sense of what we know, as far as I can see. But we need to check it, and bloody fast. First, I need you to find an expert geologist, and maybe an oceanographer as well, and ask them one question.’

  ‘I’m listening.’

  Richter spelled out exactly what information he needed.

  ‘And as quickly as possible,’ he finished, ‘because if the wrong answer comes back, then I really am fresh out of ideas.’

  ‘Got it. Anything else?’

  ‘Yes. The Americans are already running checks on the positions of Russian boomers and cruise missile boats, but we need to do the same with their surface fleet, and especially the bigger ships. What we’re interested in is anything the Russians have got heading for the Canary Islands, and we need every vessel in that area tracked. You’ll probably have to get Langley to process the request and stress the urgency, but we need that done soonest. Oh, and we also need them to backtrack. I want to know the precise course taken by every vessel that’s now en route to the Canaries, and especially a list of the ports they’ve vis
ited on their voyage.’

  ‘Not a problem,’ Simpson said. ‘And we’ll need to set up an intercept, obviously,’ he added. ‘Presumably surface, and obviously fast. We might have a Grey Funnel Line ship down there, or maybe the Yanks will be able to help out.’

  ‘They’d better,’ Richter said, ‘because they’re the ones who’ll suffer if this goes tits-up.’

  ‘Right. Is that it?’

  ‘No. One last thing. I want to be in at the kill on this, and so do my new friends from Langley. We’ll be arriving at Tromsø tomorrow, early afternoon, I think, and we’ll need an aircraft there to haul us south as fast as possible. If our second source was correct, the timetable’s going to be very tight. If they go for deployment on Tuesday, that means we’ll have to do the intercept on Monday, otherwise it’ll be too late.’

  ‘Where will you want to go?’

  ‘That’ll all depend on whatever surface asset we can use. We’ll need to get as close as we can to it, and then transfer on board by chopper, because there won’t be time to go alongside in some port. So the pilot will need to flight plan out of Tromsø for somewhere in the Canary Islands, or maybe Lajes in the Azores, but we can amend that in the air if necessary. It’s more important to ensure there’s a helicopter available with enough endurance for the transfer to the ship.’

  ‘And that can be one-way, yes?’

  ‘Yes,’ Richter agreed. ‘As long as the ship has a deck big enough to handle the chopper, obviously.’

  ‘Right. I’ll get on with it. Is that it?’

  ‘Wait one,’ Richter said, then added something else that he guessed would prove more contentious.

  ‘That’s a whole new ballgame,’ Simpson replied, ‘but I can absolutely see why you need it. We can hardly ask the bloody RAF to take care of it.’

  ‘That’s the only insurance policy that I can come up with. If we’re too late or can’t make the intercept or something, that’ll be the only way to stop it.’

  ‘I’ll need to talk to Northwood about the other stuff,’ Simpson said, ‘but I think I’ll have a chat with Number 10 first. That should smooth the way. I’ll call you as soon as I have any news.’

  Chapter 33

  Saturday

  Astute-class submarine HMS Artful, Pennant number S121, North Atlantic Ocean

  Richard Simpson was just as aware as Richter of the need for speed. Not in taking precipitate action, but more pertinently in ensuring that the assets that would be required should action be considered necessary were in place as quickly as possible.

  So the first thing he had done when he ended the call to Richter was to talk directly to the prime minister on a scrambled telephone line. It was a short conversation, lasting less than four minutes, and when it was over, Simpson waited a further five minutes by his desk clock before calling the Northwood Headquarters on the number he had culled from his classified phone directory, and was put through to the office of Commander Operations (Royal Navy). That resulted in an even shorter conversation, a senior official at the office of the prime minister having already contacted the same man on the same number about the same matter just minutes earlier.

  And the result of this telephonic activity was the creation of a short message to be sent by the Skelton Transmitting Station to HMS Artful, then on a routine patrol somewhere out in the middle of the North Atlantic, instructing the captain to make best speed to a specified location off the coast of Morocco, more or less due west of Marrakesh.

  Of course, preparing the message was one thing, but sending it was another, the normal operating depth of the Artful being well below the 20 or so metres that a VLF transmission could reach. Instead, the operators at Northwood would have to wait until a specified time later that afternoon when the submarine would ascend closer to the surface as a matter of routine. There, the boat would deploy a specialized receiver installed in a cable-mounted buoy that would float roughly 50 feet below the surface of the ocean for a predetermined length of time to allow it to receive any new orders issued by its operating authority.

  Normally, these radio messages were simply a matter of routine, just minor changes to the submarine’s tasking. The signal being prepared by the staff of Commander Operations (Royal Navy) was anything but routine and certainly not minor. As well as specifying where the submarine had to be, and the latest possible time it was to arrive there, the signal also contained specific instructions relating to four of its war load of Spearfish torpedoes.

  These were designed back in the 1970s to be used against what was then perceived to be the highest threat to maritime operations, the Soviet Alfa-class submarines that were both capable of high speeds and able to dive deep. The Spearfish replaced the extremely unreliable Tigerfish torpedo in 2004, and is by any standards an extremely impressive weapon, driven by a Sundstrand gas turbine engine and capable of travelling at 80 knots with a range of almost 30 miles. It has wire guidance allowing the weapon to be controlled and directed by the submarine, and is fitted with both active and passive sonar systems plus an autonomous microprocessor that makes tactical decisions once the weapon is deployed. Typically, the weapon can be wire guided to the general vicinity of the target, and then it will use its sonar systems to positively locate it.

  The warhead is made of aluminized PBX explosive, weighs 660 pounds and can be detonated either on contact, the fusing method employed against a submarine target, or using an acoustic proximity sensor to explode the weapon under the hull of a surface vessel. The revised orders instructed that two of the Spearfish torpedoes were to be configured for proximity destination, meaning that the target would be a surface ship, and the other two for impact detonation against a submarine. The orders also confirmed that this was a real-world scenario, and not some kind of a drill or an exercise.

  The obvious variable about which nobody could do anything was that nobody apart from the officers and crew on board the Artful actually knew where the submarine was, only its general patrol area. It was known to be the closest vessel to the required coordinates and, like the weapons that it carried, it was also fast, its Rolls-Royce pressurized water nuclear reactor able to drive it at a maximum speed of 30 knots, but because of its unknown location there was no guarantee that it could reach the target area on time.

  That was the very clear message passed back to Richard Simpson at the end of his telephone call. The Royal Navy would, as usual, do its best, but whether or not it would succeed depended entirely upon factors outside of his – and their – control.

  The problem was that using the submarine was the only option that made any kind of sense, for the reasons that Richter had made very clear in his earlier conversation with Simpson. They could not achieve the objective using a surface vessel or an aircraft, even if they could have got a warship into the vicinity in time, or somehow managed to cobble together an airborne attack using RAF aircraft with in-flight refuelling. The submarine would work, but only if it made it in time.

  * * *

  Almost two hours after Simpson ended his telephone call, and some 2,500 nautical miles to the south-west, HMS Artful was back at her normal cruising depth and heading south-east at a greatly increased speed.

  Chapter 34

  Saturday

  RV Thomas G Thompson, at sea

  When Richter walked back into the mess, the change in his demeanour was obvious to both Steve Barber and Dmitri Pavlov.

  ‘What?’ Barber asked.

  ‘I think I’ve worked it out, but I’m waiting for a geologist to talk to me, just to confirm that I’m not tilting at windmills. My boss should be jacking that up any time now.’

  ‘Well don’t keep it to yourself,’ Barber said. ‘What the hell’s going on?’

  ‘Right now it’s just a theory, but it does seem to make sense. Does the term "oceanic system" mean anything to you?’

  ‘You mean something like the Gulf Stream, or maybe the Sargasso Sea? Something like that?’

  Richter shook his head.

  ‘No. Those
are both natural phenomena. What I’m talking about is something very unnatural indeed. How about "Status-6?" Does that ring any bells? Or how about "Kanyon", but spelt with a letter "K" instead of a letter "C?" That’s a codename your people dreamed up.’

  For a few seconds Barber just stared at him. Then he said two words, very slowly.

  ‘Oh, shit.’

  Dmitri Pavlov switched his gaze rapidly back and forth between the two men, hearing what they were saying, but clearly not understanding the significance.

  ‘You mean that fucking doomsday weapon they kind of announced a while ago?’ Barber said. ‘The camera right behind the general at the conference or whatever it was that just happened to take a photograph of him staring at a set of plans that showed the weapon? That thing?’

  ‘Got it in one,’ Richter said.

  ‘We couldn’t decide if it was for real or just some hoax they’d cooked up.’

  ‘Our intelligence people looked at it as well. They couldn’t think of a single reason why it wouldn’t work, and as far as we can tell there’s nothing about its construction and operation that’s beyond present Russian capabilities. So on balance, we’ve always assumed it’s a genuine threat.’

  ‘What are you two talking about?’ Pavlov asked.

  ‘In 2015,’ Richter replied, ‘the first details emerged of a Russian doomsday weapon known as the Status-6 Oceanic Multipurpose System, a nicely innocuous name to describe something with the power to either wipe out a harbour city using a multi-megaton warhead, or use an oceanic detonation to create a tsunami, a massive wave, that would inundate an entire coastal region, like the American eastern or western seaboards. It was thought to be a doomsday weapon, a device that would only be used against the West when all other methods had failed, and because the aggressor nation would clearly be Russia, America and her allies would be entirely justified in retaliating with overwhelming force, launching every nuclear weapon they possessed at Russia. Both sides would lose, permanently, which is why we never expected to see the deployment of such a device.’