9. Jim Utsler, “The Crime Fighters,” IBM Systems Magazine, Feb. 2011, http://www.ibmsystemsmag.com/power/trends/ibmresearch/ibm_research_spss.
10. Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens, “Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economic Development, Inequality, and Criminal Activity,” 2012, http://works.bepress.com/matthew_freedman/17.
11. Utsler, “The Crime Fighters.”
12. “NYPD and Microsoft Build Hi-tech Crime Fighting ‘Dashboard,’” Telegraph, Feb. 20, 2013, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/9884479/NYPD-and-Microsoft-build-hi-tech-crime-fighting-dashboard.html.
13. CCTV Based Remote Biometric and Behavioral Suspect Detection: Technologies and Global Markets—2011–2016, Homeland Security Market Research (Homeland Security Research, Q1 2011), http://www.homelandsecurityresearch.com/2013/08/china-homeland-security-public-safety-market-2013-edition; for more details https://www.wfs.org/futurist/2013-issues-futurist/march-april-2013-vol-47-no-2/chinas-closed-circuits.
14. John L. Rep Mica, H.R.658—FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, 2011, http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d112:h.r.658.
15. “Subcommittee Hearing: Using Unmanned Aerial Systems Within the Homeland: Security Game Changer?” accessed Jan. 22, 2013, http://homeland.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-using-unmanned-aerial-systems-within-homeland-security-game-changer.
16. William Bratton, Zero Tolerance: Policing a Free Society, IEA Health and Welfare Unit: Choice in Welfare, No. 35 (IEA Health and Welfare Unit London, Apr. 1997), http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/cw35.pdf.
17. Marta Molina, “Yo Soy 132 Rejects Election Results, Continues Organizing,” Indy Blog, July 13, 2012, http://www.indypendent.org/2012/07/13/yo-soy-132-rejects-election-results-continues-organizing.
18. Feng Chen et al., Spatial Surrogates to Forecast Social Mobilization and Civil Unrests1 (Virginia Tech, 2012), http://people.cs.vt.edu/~naren/papers/CCC-VT-Updated-Version.pdf.
19. David Joachim, “What Is Intelligence Chatter, Anyway?” Slate Explainer, Sept. 12, 2003, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2003/09/what_is_intelligence_chatter_anyway.html.
20. Making the World a Witness: Report on the Pilot Phase, Satellite Sentinel Project, Dec. 2010, http://www.satsentinel.org/report/making-world-witness-report-pilot-phase-report.
21. Andrew Zammit-Mangion et al., “Point Process Modelling of the Afghan War Diary,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (July 16, 2012), doi:10.1073/pnas.1203177109.
22. Kalev Leetaru, “Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting Large-scale Human Behavior Using Global Media Tone in Time and Space,” First Monday 16, no. 9 (Sept. 2011), http://firstmonday.org/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3663/3040.
23. Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam, “The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East,” New England Complex Systems Institute (July 19, 2011).
CHAPTER 10: CRIME: PREDICTING THE WHO
1. Adam Higginbotham, “Deception Is Futile When Big Brother’s Lie Detector Turns Its Eyes on You,” Wired, Feb. 2013, http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2013/01/ff-lie-detector.
2. Ralph Chatham, “Ralph Chatham’s Informal Summary of the Insights and Findings from DARPA’s Rapid Checkpoint Screening Program,” Jan. 2007, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cl.cam.ac.uk%2F~rja14%2Fshb08%2Fchatham1.doc&ei=1AT_UPamCIyq0AHoioHwCQ&usg=AFQjCNFzJAlk-NVHrcb6DcE9SRnREq6NWQ&sig2=21WFlClt-ekMk7qmlCAFsw&bvm=bv.41248874,d.dmQ.
3. I. Pavlidis, J. Levine, and P. Baukol, “Thermal Image Analysis for Anxiety Detection,” in 2001 International Conference on Image Processing, 2001, Proceedings, vol. 2, 2001, 315–18, doi:10.1109/ICIP.2001.958491.
4. Hearing on Behavioral Science and Security: Evaluating TSA’s SPOT Program, 2011, http://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/hearings/2011%2003%2030%20Ekman%20Testimony.pdf.
5. Michael Kimlick, Privacy Impact Assessment for the Screening of Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) Program (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Aug. 5, 2008), http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/privacy/privacy_pia_tsa_spot.pdf.
6. Eric Lipton, “Faces, Too, Are Searched at U.S. Airports,” New York Times, Aug. 17, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/17/washington/17screeners.html.
7. Anthony Kimery, “TSA’s SPOT Program Not Scientifically Grounded GAO Told Congress: TSA, Experts Disagree,” Homeland Security Today, Apr. 7, 2011, http://www.hstoday.us/briefings/daily-news-briefings/single-article/tsa-s-spot-program-not-scientifically-grounded-gao-told-congress-tsa-experts-disagree/66b9300d981c1b1a39ac475411d38739.html.
8. “Majority Views NSA Phone Tracking as Acceptable Anti-Terror Tactic,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, June 10, 2013, http://www.people-press.org/2013/06/10/majority-views-nsa-phone-tracking-as-acceptable-anti-terror-tactic.
9. Scott Huddleston, “Hasan Sought Gun with ‘High Magazine Capacity,’” My San Antonio, Oct. 21, 2010, http://blog.mysanantonio.com/military/2010/10/hasan-sought-gun-with-high-magazine-capacity.
10. James C. McKinley Jr. and James Dao, “Fort Hood Gunman Gave Signals Before His Rampage,” New York Times, Nov. 9, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/09/us/09reconstruct.html.
11. Christine Baker, “A Change of Detection: To Find the Terrorist Within the Identification of the U.S. Army’s Insider Threat” (U.S. Army Command and General Staff College), accessed Jan. 22, 2013, http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=723130.
12. “Executive Order 13587—Structural Reforms to Improve the Security of Classified Networks and the Responsible Sharing and Safeguarding of Classified Information,” Oct. 7, 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/10/07/executive-order-structural-reforms-improve-security-classified-networks.
13. “DARPA—Anomaly Detection at Multiple Scales (ADAMS),” Oct. 19, 2010, Scribd, http://www.scribd.com/doc/40392649/DARPA-Anomaly-Detection-at-Multiple-Scales-ADAMS.
14. Robert H. Anderson and Richard Brackney, Understanding the Insider Threat (RAND Corporation, 2004), http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF196.html.
15. Claire Cain Miller, “Tech Companies Concede to Surveillance Program,” New York Times, June 7, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/08/technology/tech-companies-bristling-concede-to-government-surveillance-efforts.html.
16. Baker, “A Change of Detection.”
17. Ibid.
18. O. Brdiczka et al., “Proactive Insider Threat Detection Through Graph Learning and Psychological Context,” in 2012 IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy Workshops (SPW), 2012, 142–49, doi:10.1109/SPW.2012.29.
19. Nate Berg, “Want to Shame a Terrible Parker? There’s an App for That,” Atlantic Cities, May 21, 2012, http://www.theatlanticcities.com/technology/2012/05/want-report-terrible-parker-theres-app/2055.
20. “Mining Social Networks: Untangling the Social Web,” Economist, Sept. 2, 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/16910031.
21. Julia Angwin, “U.S. Terrorism Agency to Tap a Vast Database of Citizens,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 13, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324478304578171623040640006.html?user=welcome&mg=id-wsj.
22. David Thissen and Howard Wainer, “Toward the Measurement and Prediction of Victim Proneness,” Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 20, no. 2 (July 1, 1983): 243–61, doi:10.1177/002242788302000206.
CHAPTER 11: THE WORLD THAT ANTICIPATES YOUR EVERY MOVE
1. Mike Orcutt, “The Pressure’s on for Intel,” MIT Technology Review, Nov. 9, 2012, http://www.technologyreview.com/news/507011/the-pressures-on-for-intel.
2. Jeff Hawkins and Sandra Blakeslee, On Intelligence, 1st ed. (New York: Times Books, 2004), 6.
3. Jason P. Gallivan et al., “Decoding Action Intentions from Preparatory Brain Activity in Human Parieto-Frontal Networks,” The Journal of Neuroscience 31,
no. 26 (June 29, 2011): 9599–610, doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.0080-11.2011.
4. Moshe Bar, “The Proactive Brain: Memory for Predictions,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 364, no. 1521 (May 12, 2009): 1235–43, doi:10.1098/rstb.2008.0310.
5. Ibid.
6. Scott A. Huettel, Peter B. Mack, and Gregory McCarthy, “Perceiving Patterns in Random Series: Dynamic Processing of Sequence in Prefrontal Cortex,” Nature Neuroscience 5, no. 5 (May 2002): 485–90, doi:10.1038/nn841.
7. David Brin, The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? 1st trade paper ed. (New York: Basic Books, 1999).
INDEX
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
AAdvantage, 111
AbouttheData.com, 120–21
Accidents in workplace, prediction of, 176–77
Acxiom, 119–21
Advertising, 103–9. See also Marketing
cookies, impact on, 105–6
data brokerage companies, 119–21
digital media, growth of, 104–6
Facebook studies, 121–26
smartphone AdWorks, 119–20
traditional, lack of effectiveness, 104–6, 128
user data, use of, 106–9
AdWords, 81
AdWorks, 119–20
Affectiva, 44
Afghanistan, eavesdropping sensors in, 8
African Americans, stereotype threat and learning, 134–36
Agriculture, climate insurance, 80–87
Ailment Topic Aspect Model (ATAM), 61–65
Airline rewards programs, 110
Airport security
lie detectors for, 202–5
natural resistance to, 205–6
PreCheck, 207, 210
present ineffectiveness of, 205
sensors, use in airlines, 8
Allan, Alasdair, 20–21
Alloy, 177
Almeida, David, 41
Alter, Alexandra, 99
Amatriain, Xavier, 87–89, 98
Amazon, reader-behavior analysis, 99–100
American Airlines, AAdvantage, 110
American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), 30
Animal behavior, earthquake prediction, 3–4
Annalect, 108
Anomaly Detection at Multiple Scales (ADAMS), 209
Apps, and naked future, xvi–xvii
Arab Spring, predictive indicators, 200
ArcGIS, 119
Aristotle, 92–93
Artificial intelligence, brain and predictive systems, 227–32, 236
Astrology, Vedic, matchmaking in, 152–53, 182
AT & T, advertisers, connecting to users, 119–20
Attention span
film shot length based on, 100–101
and interactive quizzes, 133–34
Audience Propensities, 120
Automobiles, tracking, 212
Bakshy, Eytan, 122–24
Balance theory, and matchmaking services, 158–61
Banjo, 19
Bar, Moshe, 232–35
Bastardi, Joe, 69
Bayes, Thomas, 23–24
Bayesian Additive Regression Tree for Quasi-Linear (BART-QL), 94–98
Bayes theorem, 23–25
Bergen meteorology school, 71
Betts, Phyllis, 189
Biden, Joe, 196
Big data, xiii–xvi
availability to public, xiv
Internet searches on, xiii
media reports on, xiii–xiv
and metadata, xv–xvi
and overfitting, 5
prediction, use of, xiii–xiv, 181–82
pros and cons of, xvii
retail sector use of, xiv
and telemetry, xiv–xvi
bin Laden, Osama, 199–200
Black Death, 49–50
Blacker, Irwin, 91
Blinder, Martin, 43
Blipcare, 43
Blondel, Vincent, 18
BlueDar, 163
Bogost, Ian, 149
Borden, Ed, 11
Bowman, Courtney, 218–19, 221
Brain
future as product of, 232–36
neocortex, structure and functions, 227–28
and personality traits, 172–74
predictive power of, 227–36
predictive systems modeled on, 227–36
Bratton, William, 186–87
Brdiczka, Oliver, 211–12
Bream Brush, 44
Breunig, Drew, 108
Brin, David, 238
Broken-windows theory, 184
Bugeja, Michael, 150
Bush, George W., 79
Caldwell, Cindy, 176–77
Canopy Labs, 113–16
Carter, Graydon, 32
Cascio, Jamais, 20
CELab, 163
Centers for Disease Control (CDC), flu data collection, 61–62
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 218, 239
Chemistry.com, 173
Cheney, Dick, 7
China, predictive policing, 187
Christakis, Nicholas, 60
Christal, Raymond, 173
Chua, Sacha, 33–34, 44
Cigarette smoking, Twitter data analysis, 108–9
CiviGuard, 16–17
Climate. See Weather and climate prediction
Climate Corporation, 81–86
Closed-circuit TV (CCTV), for predictive policing, 194–95
Cloud, student records in, 129–30
Cogito, 44
Communication
character established by, 168
interaction patterns in, 168–69
marriage partners, 178–79
Obama-Romney debate, 170–71
poker players, visual cues, 169–70
sociometers/honest signals, 167–72, 174
Computing
machine-to-machine connections, scope of, 6
memory, development of, 231–32
mobile technology. See Mobile devices
ubiquitous, 6, 238
Connection tracking system, 218–21
Consent to Research project, 46–48
Consumers
behavior prediction product, 120–21
data brokerage companies, 119–21
of grocery items. See Grocery stores; Walmart
and rewards programs, 111–13
ZIP code for classifying, 118–19
Cookies, and digital ads, 105–6
Cooper, Kimbal E., 57
Cosm (Pachube), 10–12
Coursera, 133–40, 150–51
Coyne, Chris, 157
Craigslist, 156
Creative class cities, 150
Crime prediction. See Predictive policing
Crowd-sourcing, evidence of crimes, 213–17
Culham, Jody, 232
Customer loyalty programs, gambling casinos, 109–13
Cutting, James E., 100
Data
big data, xiii–xvi
data brokerage companies, 119–21
personal. See Personal data
resellers, 156
sensory, xv–xvi
Data leakage, 20–21
Daydreaming, 233
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), 204, 209, 211, 237–38
DeLong, Jordan E., 100
Denby, David, 96
Department of Homeland Security, 207
Doctrine of Critical Days, 49–50
Domestic Communications Assistance Center (DCAC), 212
Dopamine-based personality, 172
Dorgan, Bryan, 237
Downing, King, 204
Dredze, Mark, 61–65
Duhigg, Charles, xiii
Dunning-Kruger effect, 36
Dyson, George, 74–75
Eagle, Nathan, 163–65
Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system, 2–4, 9
Earth Shaker myth, 3–4
eBay, 156
e-books, reader-behavior analysis, 99–100
Education, 129–51
cloud, student records in, 129–30
Coursera, 133–40, 150–51
flip model of, 137–38
higher, benefits of, 131
interactive quizzes, 133–34
Ivy League online courses, 138
massively open online course (MOOC), 133, 148–50
One Laptop per Child (OLPC) concept, 142–47
online, and telemetric data collection, 134, 136–38, 140–42
remedial learning online, 149
self-learning via computer interface study, 144–48
stereotype threat and minority students, 134–36
team-learning, 144, 146
traditional, lack of effectiveness, 132–33, 143–44, 149
Udacity, 138–40
U.S. costs per student, 131
edX program, 138
eHarmony, 156
Eigendecomposition, 27–28
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 71–72
Ekman, Paul, 203–4
Electronic Frontier Foundation, 30
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC), 72–74
Electronic Surveillance (ELSUR) Strategy, 212
Eliashberg, Jehoshua, 89–91, 94–98, 102
Emergency response systems
for earthquakes, 2–4, 9
geographically-based, 16–17
Guardian Watch, 15–16, 213–16
neighborhood watch network, 213–17
Enlightenment, progress as concept of, xii
Environmental disasters
earthquake prediction, 2–4
Fukushima Daiichi meltdown, 9–11
Gowanus Canal toxicity, 12–14
The Naked Future Page 30