Afghanistan

  116. Raffaelo Pantucci, “Transatlantic Airline Bombing Case Collapses in the United Kingdom,” Jamestown Terrorism Focus, v. 5, n. 33, 18 September 2008.

  117. Philip Sherwell, “Bhutto Blocked From Hiring US Bodyguards,” The Daily Telegraph (London), 30 December 2007.

  118. US Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism, 2008, http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2008/122434.htm.

  119. George Tenet, At the Center of the Storm, My Years at the CIA. New York: Harper Collins, 2007, pp. 352–54.

  120. Michael Jacobsen, “Why Terrorists Quit: Gaining from Al Qaida’s Losses,” CTC Sentinel, v. 1, n. 8, July 2008, pp. 1–4.

  121. Rhys Blakeley, “Darool-Uloom Deoband Issues Fatwa Against Terrorism,” The Times (London), 2 June 2008.

  122. On Al Qaeda targeting of Muslims, see: Zahir Jan Mohamed, “Radical Muslims Killing Muslims” (The Washington Post, 25 June 2003); Richard Hoagland, “Fighting for the Soul of Islam” (The Washington Post, 13 July 2003).

  123. Audrey Kurth Cronin, Ending Terrorism, Adelphi Paper 394, 2008, p. 58.

  124. Ibid., p. 69.

  125. Ibid.

  126. “Islamic Extremism in India. The Rise of Home-Grown Terrorism,” IISS Strategic Comments, v. 15, n. 3, April 2009.

  Chapter Five

  127. On the rise of the Taliban, see: Ahmed Rashid, The Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2001.

  128. On the post–2001 organization and how the Taliban evolved as an effective insurgent force, see: Thomas H. Johnson, “On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban Resurgence in Afghanistan” (China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, v. 5, n. 2, 2007, pp. 93–129); Emma Sky, “Increasing ISAF’s Impact on Stability in Afghanistan” (Defense & Security Analysis, v. 23, n.1, March 2007, pp. 7–25); David Rohde and David E. Sanger, “How the ‘Good War’ in Afghanistan Went Bad” (The New York Times, 12 August 2007).

  129. Interview, Kabul, 19 October 2009.

  130. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  131. Tom Shanker, “US Sees Makeshift Bombs Moving Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan,” The New York Times, 29 October 2009.

  132. Interview, Washington, 10 March 2008.

  133. Eric Schmitt and Mark Mazetti, “Taliban Widen Afghanistan Attacks from Base in Pakistan,” The New York Times, 24 September 2009.

  134. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, pp. 2–6.

  135. Interview, Kabul, 20 October 2009.

  136. Schmitt and Mazetti, op. cit.

  137. “Report: Taliban appoint new regional chief in Afghanistan,” Xinhua, October 21, 2007.

  138. “Top Taliban Commander Held in Pakistan,” Xinhua, 19 July 2005.

  139. Countering Afghanistan’s Insurgency: No Quick Fixes, Brussels, 2 November 2006, International Crisis Group Asia Report no. 126, pp. 9–11. http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/south_asia/123_countering_Afghanistans_insurgency.pdf.

  140. Interview, Bagram AB, 13 October 2008.

  141. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, pp. 2–7.

  142. Griff White, “Taliban Shadow Officials Offer Concrete Alternative,” The Washington Post, 8 December 2009, pp. A1, A15.

  143. “Taliban Shadow Government Pervades Afghanistan,” CBS News report, 27 December 2008. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/27/world/main4687823_page2.shtml.

  144. Talk at the Atlantic Council, Washington, 15 October 2009.

  145. Antonio Giustozzi, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop: The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghan. New York: Columbia University Press, 2008, p. 47.

  146. Interviews, Kabul, 21–29 October 2008.

  147. “Tackling the Other Taliban,” The Economist, 17 October 2009, pp. 34–36.

  148. David Rohde, “Held by the Taliban,” The New York Times, 21 October 2009.

  149. Quoted in CJTF-82 News Release, 10 0ctober 2007, http://www.cjtf-82.com/Newsrelease/2007/October/039.

  150. Interview, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  151. Interview, COL Patrick McNiece, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  152. Interview, Kabul, 20 October 2008.

  153. Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.

  154. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  155. Sean M. Maloney, “A Violent Impediment: The Evolution of Insurgent Operations in Kandahar Province 2003–07,” Small Wars & Insurgencies, v. 19, n. 2, June 2008, p. 205.

  156. UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008, Executive Summary, August 2008, p. 4.

  157. Carlotta Gall, “Taliban Open Up Northern Front in Afghanistan,” The New York Times, 27 November 2009, pp. A1, A12.

  158. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, pp. 2–8.

  159. Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.

  160. Interview, Bagram AB, 12 October 2008.

  161. Interview, Bagram AB, 13 October 2008.

  162. Polling data from: Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.

  163. Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.

  164. Interview, Kabul, 3 November 2008.

  165. Asia Foundation Surveys in 2007–08 and ABC Surveys in 2005–09 show these results.

  166. Interview following talk at the Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  167. Interview, Bagram AB, 14 October 2008.

  168. Interview, Washington, 27 February 2009.

  169. Jonathan S. Landay and Hal Bernton, “While U.S. Debates Afghanistan Policy, Taliban Beefs Up,” McClatchy Newspapers report, 16 October 2009.

  170. Talk at the Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  171. Talk given at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), Washington, 25 February 2009.

  172. Ruth Rennie, Sudhindra Sharma, and Pawan Sen, Afghanistan in 2009: A Survey of the Afghan People. Washington: The Asia Foundation, 2009, pp. 29–32.

  173. Tom Coghlan, “Growing Afghan Kidnap Industry Mars Security Success in Kabul,” The Times (London), 22 June 2009.

  174. Hal Bernton and Hashim Shukoor, “Afghan Economy Stumbles Amid Election Uncertainty,” McClatchy Newspapers report, 16 October 2009; Helena Malikyar and Tanya Goudzouzian, “Business Flees Afghan Instability,” Al Jazeera news report, 18 November 2009.

  175. Talk given at JHU Asymmetric Warfare Symposium, Washington, 11 March 2008.

  176. “Musharraf Says Not All Taliban Terrorists,” The Daily Times (Pakistan), 13 August 2007.

  177. “Front Line Against the Taliban,” The Economist, 28 November 2009, pp. 22–9. p. 28.

  178. On messages to neighbors: “Taliban Seeks SCO Support in Resolving Afghan Crisis,” Xinhua News Agency Report, 15 October 2009.

  179. Greg Miller, “Questions About Al Qaeda’s Next Move,” The Los Angeles Times, 19 October 2009.

  180. Ruth Rennie, Sudhindra Sharma, and Pawan Sen, Afghanistan in 2009: A Survey of the Afghan People. Washington: The Asia Foundation, 2009, pp. 102–105.

  181. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  182. Talk at the Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  183. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2007.

  184. Kabul, 23 October 2008.

  185. On threats of terror attacks in Germany: Yassin Musharbash, Marcel Rosenbach, and Holger Stark, “New Video Message—Al Qaeda Threatens Terror Attacks in Germany After Elections,” Der Spiegel Online, 19 September 2009. On targeting Italians: Gian Marco Chiocci, “Italians Still Targeted. Now the 007s Expect a Repeat,” Il Giornale.it (Milan), September 22, 2009. Translated from Italian at World News Connection, News
Edge Document Number: 200909221477.1_93f400b56b8996fc.

  186. Talk given at the Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  187. Bruce Riedel, “The Elections Are Coming. Is Al Qaeda?,” The Washington Post, 10 August 2008, p. B03.

  188. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2007.

  189. Interview, Kabul, 21 October 2008. Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Rough Justice and Blooming Poppies,” Asia Times Online, 7 December 2006.

  190. Interview, Kabul, 19 October 2008.

  191. Antonio Giustozzi, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop, The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan. New York: Columbia University Press, 2008, pp. 15–21, 46–69.

  192. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, pp. 1–2.

  193. Interview, Kabul, 21 October 2008.

  194. Ibid.

  195. Jason Staziuso, “Bush Ignores Afghan School Violence,” Seattle Times, 30 January 2008.

  196. “Over 360,000 Affected by Reduced Health Service,” IRIN, 14 May 2008.

  197. Interview, Massoud Kharokhail, Tribal Liaison office, Kabul, 2 November 2008.

  198. Afghan National Development Plan 6 figures, July 2008, quoted in Anthony H. Cordesman, The Afghan-Pakistan War: The Rising Threat: 2002—08, Washington, 11 February 2009, CSIS, p. 61.

  199. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2007.

  200. Interview following talk at the Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  201. Interview with Afghan source who had worked with UK forces, Kabul, 21 October 2008.

  202. Interviews, multiple locations in Afghanistan, October—November 2008.

  203. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2007.

  204. Talk given at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), Washington, 27 October 2009.

  205. Brian Bender, “Few Militants Driven by Religion, Reports Say,” The Boston Globe, 9 October 2009.

  206. The Globe and Mail (Canada) series, starting 21 March 2008, “Talking to the Taliban.”

  207. Graeme Smith, “Talking to the Taliban: A Poll from the Frontlines,” Globe and Mail, 22 March 2008.

  208. Interview, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  209. Briefing at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2007.

  210. Tom Vandenbrook, “Afghan Roadside Bombs at Record Level,” USA Today, 26 January 2009, p. 1.

  211. Michelle Tan, “Use of IEDs Growing Rapidly in Afghanistan,” Defense News, 14 September 2009, pp. 30–32.

  212. Ibid.

  213. Interview, COL Patrick McNiece, USA, ISAF deputy director of intelligence, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  214. Ibid.

  215. Interview, Kabul, 20 October 2008.

  216. Muhammad Amir Rana, A to Z of Jehadi Organizations in Pakistan. Lahore, Mashal, 2004, pp. 10–21.

  217. Antonio Giustozzi, Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop. The Neo-Taliban Insurgency in Afghanistan. New York: Columbia University Press, 2008, pp. 108–109.

  218. “Fearful Asymmetry: A Shift in Taliban Tactics,” The Economist, 1 May 2008.

  219. Hekmat Karzai and Seth Jones, “How to Curb Suicide Terrorism in Afghanistan,” Christian Science Monitor, 18 July 2006.

  220. Interview in Al-Sumud magazine, issue 24, 14 August 2009, translated in FBIS, Jihadist Websites—OSC Summary, 17 August 2008.

  221. Interview, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  222. Interview, Afghan source, Kabul, 21 October 2009.

  223. C. J. Chivers. “Arms Sent by U.S. May Be Falling Into Taliban Hands,” The New York Times, 19 May 2008, p. A1.

  224. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  225. Talk at the Atlantic Council, Washington, 22 April 2009.

  226. Interview, COL Patrick McNiece, ISAF deputy director of intelligence, Kabul, 29 October 2008.

  227. Talk at the Atlantic Council, Washington, 20 May 2009.

  228. Talk given at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, 29 September 2009.

  229. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  230. Eric Schmitt, “A Variety of Sources Feed Taliban’s War Chest,” The New York Times, 18 October 2009.

  231. On the kidnapping threat in Afghanistan, examples of coverage of these widespread tactics are: “Gunmen Abduct Turkish National in Afghan West” (Pajhwok Afghan New reports, November 30, 2009); “Poland Develops Anti-Kidnapping Scheme for Afghan Mission” (PAP News agency report, 16 September 2009); “Armed Men Kidnap Two Doctors, Paramedics in Afghan North” (Afghan Islamic Press report, 13 October 2009); “Afghan Journalists Facing Threats from Taliban, Government—Media Watchdog” (Pahjwok Afghan News report, 2 May 2009); “Taliban Kidnap, Threaten School Teachers in Afghan South” (Afghan Islamic Press report, 20 April 2009).

  232. Paul Collier and Anneke Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers, v. 56, n. 4, October 2004, pp. 563–95.

  233. Paul Collier, Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and Their Implications for Policy, World Bank paper, 15 June 2000.

  234. James D. Fearon, “Economic Development, Insurgency and Civil War,” in Elhanan Helpman, ed., Institutions and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2008, pp. 292–328.

  Chapter Six

  235. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, The Opium Economy in Afghanistan: An International Problem. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2003.

  236. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Addiction, Crime and Insurgency, The Transnational Threat of Afghan Opium. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, October 2009, pp. 9–20.

  237. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan 2009 Opium Survey (Vienna: August 2009); Eric Schmitt, “A Variety of Sources Feed Taliban’s War Chest” (The New York Times, 18 October 2009).

  238. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Addiction, Crime and Insurgency, The Transnational Threat of Afghan Opium. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, October 2009, pp. 9–20.

  239. Scott Rennie, “Afghan Heroin Hitting Our Streets, Mounties Warn,” The Star (Toronto), 6 August 2007, http://www.thestar.com/News/article/243554.

  240. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey, 2008, Executive Summary. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, August 2008, p. 5.

  241. Dr. Barnett Rubin provided this insight.

  242. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey, Executive Summary. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, August 2008, p. viii.

  243. On the importance of credit to opium, see: Adam Pain, Opium Poppy and Informal Credit. Kabul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU), 2008.

  244. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey, 2007, August 2007, p. 15.

  245. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, The Dynamics of the Farmgate Opium Trade and the Coping Strategies of Opium Traders, Strategic Study 2, Islamabad, 1998.

  246. Talk given at the Atlantic Council, Washington, 20 May 2009.

  247. Adam Pain, Opium Trading Systems in Helmand and Ghor. Kabul: Afghan Research and Evaluation Unit, January 2006, p. 4.

  248. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime, Afghanistan Opium Survey, 2008, Executive Summary. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, August 2008, p. viii.

  249. Interview with Ministry of Counter Narcotics official, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  250. Talk given at the Atlantic Council by Ashraf Ghani, Washington, 22 April 2009.

  251. For example: Haytullah Gaheez, “Daughters Sold to Settle Debts,” Institute for War and Peace Reporting news report, ARR n. 155, 30 December 2004.

  252. David Mansfield and Adam Pain, Counter-Narcotics in Afghanistan: The Failure of Success. Kab
ul: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) briefing paper, December 2008, p. 2.

  253. Jim Drummond, director of the South Asia division of the UK’s DfID, talk given at CSIS, Washington, 28 May 2009.

  254. Steve Kroft, “Afghanistan: Addicted to Heroin,” 60 Minutes News Report, 16 October 2005.

  255. Talk given at the Atlantic Council, Washington, 20 May 2009.

  256. Barnett R. Rubin and Jake Sherman, Counter Narcotics to Stabilize Afghanistan, the False Promise of Crop Eradication. New York: Center on International Cooperation, February 2008, p. 2.

  257. Doris Buddenberg and William A. Byrd, eds., Afghan’s Drug Industry, Structure, Functioning Dynamics and Implications for Counter-Narcotics Policy. United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime and World Bank, 2008, pp. 5–6.

  258. Interview, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  259. Interview, Dr. Sayid Mohammed Amin Fatimi, Minister of Health, Washington, 23 July 2008.

  260. Interview, Ministry of Counter Narcotics official, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  261. Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, “US, Iran Seek to Stop Afghan Narco-Traffic,” Asia Times, 10 March 2009.

  262. Interview, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  263. See: Doris Buddenberg & William A. Byrd, eds., Afghan’s Drug Industry, Structure, Functioning Dynamics and Implications for Counter-Narcotics Policy, 2008, United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime and World Bank, pp. 1–22.

  264. Eric Schmitt, “A Variety of Sources Feed Taliban’s War Chest,” The New York Times, 18 October 2009.

  265. Tim Albone and Claire Billet, “Ruined Poppy Farmers Join Ranks with the Taliban,” The Times (London), 28 January 2007.

  266. Mohammad Ilyas Dayee, Institute for War & Peace Reporting, No. 290, 19 May 2008.

  267. Interview, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  268. Christopher Blanchard, Afghanistan, Narcotics and US Policy, Report RL32696. Washington: Congressional Research Service, 2009, p. 1.

  269. Interview, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  270. Ministry of Counter Narcotics official, Kabul, 26 October 2008.

  271. Estimate taken from: Barnett R. Rubin, Jake Sherman Counter-Narcotics to Stabilize Afghanistan, the False Promise of Crop Eradication, New York: Center on International Cooperation, February 2008, p. 13.

  272. Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.