Afghanistan

  403. Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Finds Local Allies Against Ferocious Foe,” The New York Times, 21 October 2009.

  404. On Maulavi Nazir: Hassan Abbas, “South Waziristan’s Maulavi Nazir: The New Face of the Taliban,” Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, v. 5, n. 9, 10 May 2007.

  405. “Taliban Bitten by a Snake in the Grass” (Asia Times Online, 26 April 2008); “Taliban Claim Victory From a Defeat” (Asia Times Online, 3 May 2008).

  406. On the 2008 Pakistani military operations in Waziristan, see C. Christine Fair and Seth G. Jones, “Pakistan’s War Within,” Survival, v. 51, n. 6, December 2009, pp. 161–188.

  407. Hassan Abbas, “Is the NWFP Slipping Out of Pakistan’s Control?” Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, v. 5, n. 22, 26 November 2007, pp. 9–12.

  408. Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Defies US on Curbing Attacks,” The New York Times, 16 May 2008.

  409. C. Christine Fair, “Pakistan Loses Swat to Local Taliban,” Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, v. 4, n. 37, 26 November 2007, pp. 3–4.

  410. Khalid Qayum and Khaleeq Ahmed, “Pakistan Deploys Troops in Swat to Curb Militants,” Bloomberg News report, 25 October 2007, http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pidAfghanistan20601102&sidAfghanistanakTcKrCtbmWE&referAfghanistanuk.

  411. On the 2007 Pakistani military offensive in Swat, see C. Christine Fair and Seth G. Jones, “Pakistan’s War Within,” Survival, v. 51, n. 6, December 2009, pp. 161–188.

  412. Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Defies US on Curbing Attacks,” The New York Times, 18 May 2008.

  413. Sabrina Tavernise and Pir Zubair Shah, “Tough Battle in Stronghold of Pakistan Insurgency,” The New York Times, 16 June 2009.

  414. Steven Munson and Walter Pincus, “Supplying Troops in Afghanistan With Fuel is Challenge for US,” The Washington Post, 15 December 2009, p. A11.

  415. On the 2008 Pakistani military operations in Swat, see C. Christine Fair and Seth G. Jones, “Pakistan’s War Within,” Survival, v. 51, n. 6, December 2009, pp. 161–188.

  416. Ahmed Rashid, “Pakistan on the Brink,” The New York Review of Books, v. 67, n. 10, 11 June 2009, pp. 12–16.

  417. For example, see Abbas Memkari, “Extremism and All Kinds of Ups and Downs,” Jang (Karachi), 1 April 2007.

  418. Jane Perlez and Ismail Khan, “Militants Gain Despite Decree by Musharraf,” The New York Times, 15 November 2007.

  419. Paul Wiseman and Zafar M. Sheikh, “Pakistani Police Underfunded, Overwhelmed,” USA Today, 5 May 2009.

  420. Ahmed Rashid, “Hearts on the Line in Pakistan,” The Washington Post, 12 June 2009.

  421. “The Law in Whose Hands?” The Economist, 3 October 2009, pp. 49–50.

  422. Sabrina Tavernise and Waqar Gillani, “70 Murders, Yet Close to Going Free in Pakistan,” The New York Times, 5 August 2009.

  423. Ismail Khan, “Mehsuds Hedge their Bets as Game On to Isolate Behtullah,” Dawn (Karachi), 16 June 2009.

  424. Sadia Sulaiman, “Haiz Gul Bahadur: A Profile of the Leader of the North Waziristan Taliban,” Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, v. 7, n. 9, 10 April 2009.

  425. Syed Saleem Shahzad, “Deal with Militants Emboldens Opposition,” Asia Times Online, 24 February 2009.

  426. Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Finds Local Allies Against Ferocious Foe,” The New York Times, 21 October 2009.

  427. “There They Go Again,” The Economist, 24 October 2009, pp. 48–50.

  428. “Tackling the Other Taliban,” The Economist, 17 October 2009, pp. 26, 34.

  429. Jane Perlez, “Pakistan Finds Local Allies Against Ferocious Foe,” The New York Times, 21 October 2009.

  430. Paul Alexander, “Taliban Commander Shot Dead in Northwest Pakistan,” AP Report, 23 June 2009.

  431. Kamran Khan: “After Baitullah, Battle On for Taliban Treasure,” The News Online (Islamabad), 10 August 2009.

  432. Mukhtar A. Khan, “A Profile of the TTP’s New Leader: Hakimullah Mehsud,” CTC Sentinel, v. 2, n. 10, October 2009, pp. 1–4.

  433. Saeed Shah, “Is Pakistan’s Taliban Movement on the Way Out?,” McClatchy Newspapers report, 23 August 2009.

  434. Quoted in Dawn (Karachi), 31 July 2008.

  435. Julian E. Barnes and Greg Miller, “US Aiding Pakistani Military Offensive,” Los Angeles Times, 23 October 2009.

  436. Craig Cohen, “When 10 Billion is Not Enough,” The Washington Quarterly, v. 30, n. 2, Spring 2007, pp. 7–19.

  437. Interview, Kabul, 28 October 2008.

  438. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  439. Hassan Abbas, Police & Law Enforcement Reform in Pakistan: Crucial for Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Success. Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, April 2009, p. 16.

  440. Ashley J. Tellis, Pakistan and the War on Terror. Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2008, p. 26.

  441. Nasrullah Afridi, “Army Operation Likely in Khyber Agency” (The News Online [Islamabad], 23 November 2009); “New Front Possible in Anti-Taliban Fight” (The Washington Post, 13 December 2009, p. A22).

  442. David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt, “Administration Presses Pakistan to Fight Taliban,” The New York Times, 8 December 2009, pp. A1, A12.

  443. Jane Perlez, “Rebuffing US, Pakistan Balks at Crackdown,” The New York Times, 15 December 2009, pp. A1, A8.

  444. Robert Karniol, “Plugging the Gaps,” Jane’s Defense Weekly, 22 March 2006.

  445. Mosharref Zaidi, “Politics, Not Extremism, Is to Blame for Pakistan’s Plight,” The National Post (Canada), 26 October 2009.

  446. Talk at CSIS, Washington, 21 March 2008.

  447. Ahmed Rashid, “Pakistan’s Worrisome Pullback,” The Washington Post, 6 June 2008, p. A19.

  448. Jane Perlez and Ismail Khan, “Aid Package from US Jolts Army in Pakistan,” The New York Times, 8 October 2009, p. A10.

  449. Scott Shane, “CIA to Expand Use of Drones in Pakistan” (The New York Times, 3 December 2009); Carol Grisanti and Musthtaq Yusufzai, “Pakistanis Outraged over Continued Drone Attacks” (MSNBC News Report, 26 January 2009, http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/01/26/1761106.aspx); Jeremy Page, “Google Earth Reveals Secret History of US Base in Pakistan” (The Times (London), 19 February 2009, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5762371.ece).

  450. Ahmed Rashid, “Waziristan or Bust,” The Times of India, 26 October 2009.

  451. Andrew Scheineson, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization. New York: Council of Foreign Relations Backgrounder Report, 24 March 2009, http://www.cfr.org/publication/10883/.

  452. Geoff Dyer, “Obama to Press China, on Afghanistan,” The Financial Times (London), 12 November 2009.

  453. Interview with former Afghan cabinet minister, Kabul, 16 October 2009.

  454. Krittivas Mukherjee, “India, China Russia Seek Role in Afghan Policy,” Reuters News Report, 27 October 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE59Q1TS20091027.

  455. Eric Schmitt, “US Defense Secretary Issues Veiled Warning to China Not to Bully Neighbors Over Energy,” The New York Times, 31 May 2008, p. A8.

  456. Erik Eckholm, “China Muslim Group Planned Terror, U.S. Says,” The New York Times, 31 August 2002.

  457. Jim Yardley, “New Spasm of Violence in Western China as 11 Die in Wave of Bombings,” The New York Times, 10 August 2008.

  458. Tariq Niazi, China, Pakistan and Terrorism, Foreign Policy in Focus Commentary, 16 July 2007, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4384.

  459. Jonathan Landay, “China’s Thirst for Copper Could Hold Key to Afghanistan’s Future,” McClatchy Papers News Report, 8 March 2009.

  460. Nicklas Norling, “The Emerging China-Afghanistan Relationship,” Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst, 14 May 2008, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?qAfghanistannode/4858.

  461. See: Niamatullah Ibrahimi, The Failure of a Clerical Proto-State: Hazarajat, 1979—84. London: Crisis States Research Centre Working Paper No. 6, 2006.

  462. Talk gi
ven at Heritage Foundation, Washington, 26 March 2008.

  463. Interview, Kabul, 22 October 2008.

  464. Matthew Levitt, talk given at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington, 10 March 2008.

  465. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, pp. 2–11.

  466. Jason Motlagh, “Iran’s Spending Spree in Afghanistan,” Time, 27 May 2009.

  467. Interview, Kabul, 28 October 2008.

  468. Lionel Beehner, Afghanistan’s Role in Iran’s Drug Problem. New York: Council for Foreign Relations Backgrounder, 14 September 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/11457/.

  469. Interview with Afghan government official, Kabul, 21 October 2008.

  470. Ibid.

  471. See: Rajmohan Gandhi, Ghaddar Khan, Nonviolent Badshah of the Pakhtuns. New Delhi: Penguin, 2004.

  472. Sumit Ganguly and S. Paul Kaptur, “The End of the Affair: Washington’s Cooling Passion for New Delhi,” Foreign Affairs Online, 15 June 2009.

  473. Paul Staniland, “Improving India’s Counterterrorism After Mumbai,” CTC Sentinel, v. 2, n. 4, April 2009, pp. 11–14.

  474. Pakistani Public Opinion on the Swat Conflict, Afghanistan and the US: Questionnaire, 1 July 2009, WorldPublicOpinion.Org, http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/jul09/WPO_Pakistan_Jul09_quaire.pdf.

  475. Some 80 to over 90 percent of Pakistanis polled in 2009 believe the US is trying to impose US culture on Muslim society or weaken and divide the Islamic world. Clay Ramsay, Steven Kull, Stephen Weber, and Evan Lewis, Pakistani Public Opinion of the Swat Conflict, Afghanistan and the US, 1 July 2009, World Public Opinion.Org, pp. 9–11, http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/jul09/WPO_Pakistan_Jul09_rpt.pdf.

  476. Mosharref Zaidi, “Politics, Not Extremism, Is to Blame for Pakistan’s Plight,” The National Post (Canada), 26 October 2009.

  477. Saeed Shah, “Pakistan’s President Facing Military Anger Over His US Ties,” McClatchy Newspapers report, 27 November 2009.

  478. Talk given at the Republican National Lawyers’ Association annual meeting, Washington, 22 April 2009.

  479. Michael Scheuer, “India’s Strategic Challenge in Pakistan’s Afghan Hinterland,” Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, v. 5, n. 32, 12 August 2008.

  480. Sebastian Abbot, “US Looks for Saudi Help in Afghanistan, Pakistan,” Associated Press report, 3 June 2009.

  481. Andrew Scutro, “Surge to Strain Supply Lines,” Defense News, 7 December 2009, pp. 1, 20.

  482. Quoted in: Steven Munson and Walter Pincus, “Supplying Troops in Afghanistan With Fuel Is Challenge for US,” The Washington Post, 15 December 2009, p. A11.

  483. David Rhode, Carlotta Gall, Eric Schmitt, and David E. Sangar, “US Officials See Waste in Billions Sent to Pakistan,” The New York Times, 24 December 2007.

  484. Dan Balz, “Obama Says He Would Take Fight to Pakistan,” The Washington Post, 2 August 2007.

  485. On the potential for near-term collapse in Pakistan, see “Centcom Adviser Warns Pakistan In Danger; Says Pak Security Services a Rogue State Within a State” (The News [Islamabad], 24 March 2009); Pamela Constable, “In Pakistan, a Sense of Foreboding” (The Washington Post, 27 April 2009, p. A6).

  486. Ahmed Rashid, “Pakistan on the Brink,” The New York Review of Books, v. 67, n. 10, 11 June 2009, pp. 12–16.

  487. Interview following talk at the Brookings Institution, Washington, 25 February 2009.

  Chapter Nine

  488. Interview, Kabul, 19 October 2009. The minister was suggesting that this book be re-titled.

  489. Yet the imperial—British or Soviet—experience can still provide valuable insights into Afghan realities. See, for example, Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason, “No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistani-Afghanistan Frontier,” International Security, v. 32, n. 4, Spring 2008, pp. 41–77.

  490. Sean M. Maloney, “The International Security Assistance Force: The Origins of a Stabilization Force,” Canadian Military Journal, Summer 2003, pp. 3–11.

  491. Carlotta Gall, “UN Official Raises Alarms Over Killings in Afghanistan,” The New York Times, 16 May 2008.

  492. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  493. NATO Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Claudio Bisogniero, Assisting Afghanistan: The importance of a comprehensive approach, Keynote address at the GLOBUS Conference, Bratislava, Slovakia, 17 January 2008, http://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2008/s080117a.html.

  494. Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “Pentagon Worries Led to Command Change,” The Washington Post, 17 August 2009.

  495. “Afghanistan’s NATO Force Needs Top Civilian: UN,” AFP News Report, 4 January 2010.

  496. Talk given at the Association of the US Army annual meeting, Washington, 6 October 2009.

  497. GEN Stanley McChrystal, COMISAF Initial Assessment (“McChrystal Report”), Kabul, 20 August 2009, p. B–1.

  498. Bill Gertz. “Inside the Ring,” The Washington Times, 10 July 2008.

  499. Placemat, 22 October 2009. http://www.nato.int/isaf/docu/epub/pdf/placemat.pdf.

  500. Before an audience at the Atlantic Council in Washington, 11 May 2009. Craddock is the former Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR).

  501. On national caveats in general, see: LTC Leah R. Sundquist, NATO in Afghanistan: A Progress Report, Carlisle Barracks, 25 March 2008, US Army War College Strategy Research Report; COL Michael L. Everett, Merging the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) and Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF): A Strategic Imperative, Carlisle Barracks, 8 February 2006, US Army War College Strategy Research Report; Susan Koelbl and Alexander Szander, “German Special Forces in Afghanistan Let Taliban Commander Escape,” Der Spiegel Online International, 19 May 2008, http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,554033,00.html.

  502. Manfred Goetzke, “How the Rules of Afghanistan Have Changed for the Bundeswehr,” Deutsche Welte News Report, 16 December 2009, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5019739,00.html. Jerome Starkey, “They Came, They Saw, Then Left the Afghan War Without a Single Mission,” The Scotsman (Edinburgh), 9 October 2008, http://news.scotsman.com/world/They-came-they-saw-.4573584.jp.

  503. Interview, Kabul, 12 October 2009.

  504. Pentagon news conference, Washington, 18 May 2009, http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?idAfghanistan53604.

  505. Gary Langer, Public Opinion Trends in Afghanistan, ABC News, 11 February 2009.

  506. Noor Rahman, “Afghans Dispute US Version of Raid Casualties,” Reuters News Report, 20 May 2007.

  507. Interview, Kabul, 20 October 2008.

  508. Kirk Semple, “Official Calls for Sensitivity to Afghan Demands,” The New York Times, 8 December 2008.

  509. For an estimate of the scope of the problem, see: Conflict-Related Civilian Deaths, Kabul, 13 May 2009, NATO Briefing Chart. http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2009_05/20090514_090513-Conflict-Related_Civilian_Deaths.pdf.

  510. ABC Polling, 11 February 2009. These polling results likely also reflect that those in areas where indirect fire is being used probably are living in districts in south and east Afghanistan where the US presence is not popular for multiple reasons.

  511. HQ ISAF Strategic Advisory Group “Unclassified Metrics” May 2009 figures quoted in Anthony Cordesman, The Afghan War at End 2009: A Crisis and New Realism, Washington, 4 January 2010, CSIS, p. 13. http://csis.org/files/publication/100104_afghan_war_at_end_09.pdf .

  512. For one example: Jessica Stern, Terror in the Name of God, New York: HarperCollins, 2004.

  513. John R. Dyke and John R. Crisafulli, Unconventional Counter-Insurgency in Afghanistan, Monterey, CA, June 2006. Naval Postgraduate School thesis, p. 8, for example.

  514. See: Sean Naylor, Not a Good Day to Die: The Untold History of Operation Anaconda. New York, 2005, Berkeley.

  515. Wayne Washington, “Once Against Nation-Building, Bush Now Involved,” The Boston Globe, 2 Ma
rch 2004. http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/03/02/once_against_nation_building_bush_now_involved/. Bush’s State of the Union speech,” CNN News Report, 29 January 2003, http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/01/28/sotu.transcript/.

  516. Interviews, Kabul, October-November 2008. There are two highly diverging views of this situation. Karzai supporters and veterans of this stage of his administration report Karzai’s concern about a cross-border insurgency. Northern Alliance figures believe he saw the Northern Alliance leadership (and increased political power of non-Pushtuns) as Afghanistan’s major security threat.

  517. Walter Pincus, “Growing Threat Seen in Afghan Insurgency: Defense Intelligence Agency Chief Cites Surging Violence,” The Washington Post, 1 March 2006.

  518. Talk at JHU Asymmetric Warfare Symposium, Washington, 10 March 2008.

  519. COL Peter Mansoor, “How the Surge Worked,” The Washington Post 10 August 2008, p. B–7.

  520. On the background of this approach, see: MAJ Stephen C. Phillips, Establishing a Suitable Tactical Design for Clear-Hold-Build Counterinsurgency Operations, Ft. Leavenworth, 12 June 2009, Thesis at the US Army Command and General Staff College.

  521. FM3-24, Counterinsurgency, Washington, December 2006, U.S. Army, paras 5-51–5-8. http://www.usgcoin.org/library/doctrine/COIN-FM3-24.pdf.

  522. MAJ Quy H. Nguyen, Achieving Unity of Effort: Leveraging Interagency Cooperation Between the Department of Defense (DoD) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Ft. Leavenworth, 12 June 2009, Thesis at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College.

  523. Interview, Kabul, 20 October 2008.

  524. Security Summary, Kabul, 13 May 2009, NATO briefing chart, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2009_05/20090514_090513-Security_Summary.pdf.

  525. IED Related Casualties, Kabul, 13 May 2009, NATO briefing chart, http://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_2009_05/20090514_090513-IED_Related_Casualties.pdf.

  526. Joint Operations Intelligence Information System (JOIIS) 4 May 2009 figures quoted in Anthony Cordesman, The Afghan War at End 2009: A Crisis and New Realism, Washington, 4 January 2010, CSIS, p. 6. http://csis.org/files/publication/100104_afghan_war_at_end_09.pdf .