How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It

by James Wesley, Rawles

  7. Buy a smaller but carefully selected supply of scarce European magazines (Steyr AUG, HK, SIG, Valmet, etc.). The day may come when not even large wads of cash will buy you any full-capacity magazines, but some owners will be willing to trade for magazines that they want or need.

  8. Once you have your supply of magazines in hand, divide them into three coequal piles and store them in three separate locations, to protect yourself against burglary or other unpleasant future circumstances.

  Ballistic Wampum: Common-Caliber and Regional Favorites

  Common-caliber ammunition is preferable to precious metals for barter. In the U.S., I recommend stocking up on extra .308, .223, 9mm, .40 S&W, .45 ACP, 12-gauge (2¾-inch only), and .22 long rifle rimfire. You might also lay in a smaller supply of the two or three most popular big-game-hunting calibers in your region. They do vary quite a bit. Ask at your local sporting-goods store which are the most popular. Where I live, it is .30-06, but in other parts of the country it might be .30-30 or .243 Winchester.

  Horse Tack

  Horses will be very important post-Crunch. So buying horse tack is a great idea. You can also consider those purchases part of your just-in-case Peak Oil insurance and just one more tangible investment. But be sure to keep that leather well oiled, inspected often, and away from moisture and vermin.

  One alternative to leather is purchasing the Biothane nylon tack that is now favored by some endurance riders. Regardless of what tack you select, think ahead in terms of maintaining it. Buy extra hardware, rolls of different widths of nylon webbing (in olive green and brown, of course), sheet leather, leatherworking tools, a sewing awl, spools of heavy nylon thread, Barge Cement, Shoo Goo, etc. These are all available from Tandy Leather Factory (tandyleatherfactory.com). I have found that slightly used tools can often be bought at garage sales and flea markets, and via eBay, from people who flirted with the hobby but gave it up when they discovered that it was too much like work.

  Those tools and supplies could form the basis for a second post-Crunch source of income or barter. Post-TEOTWAWKI there will suddenly be lots of people who want to carry handguns daily but are short on holsters.

  Strategies for Bartering, Dickering, and Survival

  Since there is effectively only one currency in our country, it is the only way to do business. It may prove difficult, but you need to discard your traditional mind-set about the currency and realize that we are riding a down escalator. An inflationary environment stands traditional logic on its head, since saving becomes losing, and investing is almost like throwing coins into a pond if the rate of return of any investment is lower that the real-world inflation rate. The only noteworthy exception, as already discussed, is investing in tangibles.

  Here are some suggestions for protecting yourself from inflation by mastering the art of bartering:

  Buy in Bulk

  Buy most of your staple foods and groceries at a discount or warehouse store such as Costco or Sam’s Club. Don’t overlook the “closeout” and “dented-can” stores. (But avoid buying any bulging cans or those with dented rims.) Stock up on nonperishable items whenever they are on sale: things like lightbulbs, paper products, bar soap, cleaning supplies, laundry detergent, lubricants, and so forth. As long as you protect these supplies from theft, moisture, and vermin, they are better than money in the bank. These are tangibles bought at today’s prices, which you can use for many years to come.

  If your local zoning and fire regulations allow it, buy your own gas and diesel fuel tanks. Also consider installing oversize propane or home-heating-oil tanks. When getting competitive bids from tank suppliers, be sure to ask them to lock in the price per gallon for the initial fill for each new tank. To win your business, the tank salesman might be willing to commit to a price that is a few pennies per gallon below current market. See Chapter 6 for more on fuel.

  Learn to Barter

  Barter, by its very nature, shields you from inflation. Instead of using depreciating paper tokens as a means of exchange, you are directly exchanging a tangible for another tangible, or a service for a tangible, or a service for a service. I strongly advocate stocking up on extra items for barter. However, it is with the proviso that you do not embark on buying goods dedicated for barter until after you have your family’s essential beans, bullets, and Band-Aids squared away, following a well-balanced logistics plan.

  To be useful in barter, choose items that have most or all of the following seven attributes:

  1. Appeal/usefulness to the majority of the citizenry. Nearly every family uses soap, but just a few need #7 Singer sewing-machine needles.

  2. Immediate recognizability. Name brands need no introduction. All others are suspect.

  3. Longevity. Keep shelf life in mind. If you cannot barter it all away before it goes bad, then you are buying too much. Even coal has a shelf life.

  4. Easy divisibility. Boxes of matches, boxes of cartridges, coils of rope, balls of twine, and cans of kerosene are perfect examples. If you plan on dividing a commodity in barter transactions, then be sure to have the containers needed for parceling it out.

  5. Relative compactness and transportability at reasonable cost. Toilet paper has great appeal, but just five hundred dollars’ worth would nearly fill my garage.

  6. Consistent quality. For example, precious metals, coins of known purity, or ammunition from a major manufacturer such as Winchester, Remington, or Federal.

  7. Limited availability. In North America, jars of freeze-dried instant coffee would be ideal, but in Central America, they would probably be worthless.

  Learn Several Valuable (Barterable) Skills

  As discussed previously, every family should have at least one home-based business that they can fall back on in the event of an economic recession or depression. Concentrate on skills rather than goods for barter. The beauty of having skills to barter is that most of them don’t require much raw material, so unlike with barter goods, you will never run out. A profession or skill that also requires a specialized tool set is fine; however, if the skill also requires delivering a factory-made device to complete each transaction, then you might consider doing something else. For example, installing burglar alarms might be profitable as long as you have a source of resupply, and as long as the power and telephone networks are functioning. But in a grid-down TEOTWAWKI, how long could you continue running such a business?

  Avoid developing a skill that appeals only to wealthy customers for discretionary spending. Those are the purchases that will be delayed or skipped altogether in an economic depression. Hence, shotgun checkering and engraving are poor choices, but septic-tank pumping is a good one.

  Concentrate on a business that can be operated without the need for grid power. It is notable that most of the businesses in this category existed in the nineteenth century. Who knows? Maybe buggy whip makers will make a comeback in the Second Great Depression.

  Bartering

  Being ready to barter is not just a matter of having a pile of “stuff” to trade. While barter and charity logistics are important, what is even more important is what is between your ears. Bartering takes practice. Dickering is an acquired skill. I suggest that you start attending gun shows, garage sales, and flea markets and learn how to haggle.

  Practice bartering on a very small scale at first to sharpen your eye for value and your ability to dicker in a manner that will result in a fair trade that is mutually agreeable and mutually beneficial. The occasional transaction in which you end up slighted is hardly cause for concern, but unless you develop the proper bartering skills, you’ll end up on the weaker side of bargains again and again, and you’ll fritter away your tangible working capital. The attributes that will put you in a superior bartering position include specific knowledge about what is being traded, knowledge about who’s sitting on the other side of the table, and good old-fashioned horse sense.

  Barter Knowledge and References

  The more you know about the goods being exchanged, the
better you’ll be able to dicker. Armed with this knowledge, you’ll be able to honestly yet persuasively talk up the virtues of your own goods, while politely talking down the defects of your trading partner’s goods. Hence, the greater your technical knowledge of the goods, the better. Take the time to study and develop an appraiser’s eye for the condition of used merchandise, the relative value of goods from one maker versus another, and knowledge of the overall market. With that knowledge you can articulate the scarcity of any particular item in your barter stock. After all, as with any other free-market transaction, the key factor in determining value is the supply/demand ratio. If you are trading for a collectible item, then knowing how scarce it is can put you at a tremendous advantage in negotiation. You need to authoritatively know which maker, model, variation, grade, year of production, etc., to look for.

  Similarly, knowing exactly how to gauge properly the condition of a used item is quite important. For example, with firearms, the percentage of original bluing remaining, cracks or wear to a gun’s stock, bore condition, chamber condition, bolt-face erosion, action tightness, headspace, and so forth all make a huge difference in the value of a used gun.

  Detailed knowledge is also crucial when determining the value of a rare coin. For most of us, that knowledge is too specialized to be of much use. It can take many years to develop coin-grading skills, so a novice can get in over his or her head very easily. The difference between an MS-66 coin and an MS-68 is very subtle, yet that difference can mean thousands of dollars’ difference in a coin’s price. I therefore recommend that novices trade only professionally graded coins that have been graded and sealed (or “slabbed”) by either Professional Coin Grading Service or Numismatic Guaranty Corporation. A coin dealer Bluesheet (snipurl.com/hn5a4) is a crucial reference for measuring the current value of coins with particular mint marks and dates in any given grade on the Sheldon scale. Even having an out-of-date Bluesheet is better than nothing, since it will show relative values of coins, which change fairly gradually. Again, this is not for a novice or a part-time dabbler.

  Tools

  To be ready to barter with bullion gold coins or scrap gold it is important to have a touchstone, an acid-test kit, test needles, a very accurate scale, and a set of Fisch coin-authenticity dimensional gauges.

  When bartering for canned goods you should have a Julian calendar (since some packers use Julian dates) and a hard copy of the mealtime.org chart showing how to decipher date-of-pack codes from various canners and packers.

  For liquid fuel, it’s important to know if the fuel has been contaminated or adulterated. UR-2B-Prepared.com sells water test strips.

  For batteries, you’ll need a voltmeter. For the greatest versatility, buy a volt-ohm meter with test probes on leads, rather than a typical tray-type home battery tester.

  For examining the fine details of just about anything—such as reading hallmarks—a jeweler’s loupe (magnifying glass) is a must.

  For evaluating firearms, at minimum buy a six-foot tape measure and a fiber-optic bore-inspection light.

  Dickering Tactics

  Above and beyond getting technical knowledge is the hard-to-quantify people skill of dickering. Dickering skills can take years to develop. Part of this is learning how to read the face and body language of the gent on the other side of the table. How anxious is he to unload something that he has, or to acquire something that you have? How quick they are to make or accept an offer is a key indicator. And if there is a savvy trader sizing you up, you have to learn to keep a poker face, not revealing how excited you are to see a particular item being offered.

  Take your time in carefully examining any item offered to you. This gives you the opportunity to spot any flaws, defects, or signs of wear on the item being offered, and if you spend more time examining an item, it will lead the seller to doubt the value of what he is offering. If you make an offer for an item and it is rejected, or the counteroffer made is ridiculously high, then the very best thing you can do is put the item back on the table. This psychologically distances you from the item, and, again, makes the seller begin to doubt its value. In the dickering process one of the most valuable phrases that you can use is “Is that the best you can do?” If the seller won’t budge and you are close to an acceptable price, the next-best thing to do is offer to sweeten the deal with additional goods offered on your side of the bargain. If you still can’t reach an agreement, it probably wouldn’t hurt to subtly talk down the value of what’s being offered to you, and talk up the value of what you are offering. “This is a mighty fine widget. It’s too bad about this crack and this wear . . . If it weren’t for that, I think your asking price would be fair.”

  The next most valuable thing you can learn is how to say nothing. After making an offer and receiving a counteroffer, silently start counting to twenty. There is something about a long pause that causes all but the most stalwart dickerer to want to fill that silence. And nine times out of ten, he will fill that silence with another offer, usually one that is more agreeable.

  As a last resort, thank the seller and start to walk away from the table. This will be your final gauge of just how anxious the seller is to move his merchandise. If you hear “Wait, wait, wait, come back here . . . ,” then you know that the seller still has room to negotiate on price or quantity. Keep in mind, however, that this is a risky tactic. Once you walk away without the seller voicing objection, if you return later, you have boxed yourself into the previously offered price. If you come back later for the same item, the seller will know that you are anxious to purchase it and did not find a better deal for a comparable item elsewhere, so he’ll probably hold to the same price.

  When selling, keep in mind that you can negotiate down, but not up. Always make your initial asking price somewhat higher than what you really want for it. Some people will not agree even to a good deal unless they can extract at least one price concession from you. So set a fairly high price, and then negotiate down.

  If your counterpart brings an item to offer you, but that item is of no interest to you, always thank him for his time: “Thanks, but I’m not interested in that right now. Do you have any X available?” describing what you are looking for in trade. Remember, a sales venue is an opportunity to gather information about other items a seller may have available but may not have with him. It might not hurt to make arrangements to see him at the next event, reminding him to bring those items so you can make a deal next time.

  Image

  When going to attend a flea market, gun show, or horse-trading session, it is important to dress down. If you wear a fancy watch or designer clothes, consciously or unconsciously your counterpart will size you up as being made of money. So dress very casually, including your shoes. Leave your jewelry, pens, and nice watch at home. Wear your cheap plastic digital watch for these excursions.

  You also need to learn to be observant about your counterpart. Is he a collector who happens to sell on the side, or is he a journeyman salesman whose livelihood is this business? Is he retiring and selling off inventory? Is he selling merchandise on behalf of a friend or relative? The bottom line is: Just how anxious is your counterpart to make a deal?

  Timing and Rapport

  When approaching a vendor for the first time it is important to first wait until the vendor has finished dealing with any previous customers. Don’t interrupt a man when he’s making a deal! Smile and make eye contact, and if appropriate for the venue, introduce yourself and shake hands. If you are a fellow vendor, wear your badge or otherwise make it known that you also have a table or booth. This lets the seller know that he is talking to a wholesale rather than retail customer. This can make a tremendous difference when negotiating price. Even if the vendor appears to have a pile of worthless junk on his table (with perhaps a few nice items of interest), make a point of expressing your admiration for his merchandise. Say something like, “You’ve got a real nice inventory here,” or “I can see that you have good taste in widgets.” Whil
e it doesn’t hurt to point out a defect on an individual item while negotiating for it, do not “run down” the quality or condition of everything that you see. Doing so could skunk the entire deal-making process. Don’t be shy about pointing out defects in your own merchandise. “Oh, in case you didn’t notice, there is one dent here . . .” In a subtle way, that lets your customer know that you are reputable.

  Another key aspect of buying-and-selling psychology is the stage of the game. At the beginning of a show or sale most journeymen sellers arrive inventory rich and cash poor. Near the end of the show, they will likely have more cash (or precious metals) on hand and then will be in a better position to make offers. Although some of the best items may have already been sold, one of the most advantageous times to make a purchase or trade is near the end of a show, when some sellers have had a slow show. At flea markets and gun shows, wait until just before the vendor’s tear-down-and-pack-up time begins. Depending on his situation, he might be desperate to make a good sale or a couple of good swaps so that he can feel he’s made the show worthwhile. So if you saw an item earlier in the show and could not negotiate an agreeable price, wait for the end of the sales event. This is a particularly valuable tactic if the item in question is especially bulky or heavy. It is the unspoken goal of every seller to go home light.

  If you encounter a seller who has the sort of merchandise that you think would be of future interest, then get his particulars so that you can contact him later. Take copious notes. The same applies when you encounter a seller who has a particularly valuable area of expertise or a rare stock of items—especially spare parts. These are people well worth networking with.